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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #52,821
  • Aug 14, 2015 6:53am Aug 14, 2015 6:53am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Not really as I am not at all sure myself.... just trying to learn about it in the market........FTI talked about it so it set me off investigating.......a few posts ago he gave me nice summary of how he traded () takes 20/30 years to learn this summary. But will give it a go......but not in a clever way.... just as I felt it today. But I could be talking nonsense who knows. Everything in the market tells us more than I ever knew and even then we can always be wrong today as it can do what it wants. I watched the buy/sell price & what...

Thank you, I understand what you mean now.

My personal opinion on this is:- I think it depends on the broker? Those who manage their A and B books would want to do this; it's business and they're in it to make money.

Is your broker a MM or ECN? I am using a STP broker based in the UK. I find that my rates/spreads tend to look ok. Though, they do widen at times, it seems normal.
  • #52,822
  • Aug 14, 2015 7:01am Aug 14, 2015 7:01am
Quoting Talzus
{quote} Thank you, I understand what you mean now. My personal opinion on this is:- I think it depends on the broker? Those who manage their A and B books would want to do this; it's business and they're in it to make money. Is your broker a MM or ECN? I am using a STP broker based in the UK. I find that my rates/spreads tend to look ok. Though, they do widen at times, it seems normal.
I am happy generally with my broker but I am now wondering can we make some use of the buy/sell price information presented.... but not sure.......just working on it..... as I go and will learn if any use in it or not. If no use will drop it. Going with flow is best.... FTI's meanderings and rubber bands.
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #52,823
  • Aug 14, 2015 7:15am Aug 14, 2015 7:15am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} I am happy generally with my broker but I am now wondering can we make some use of the buy/sell price information presented.... but not sure.......just working on it..... as I go and will learn if any use in it or not. If no use will drop it. Going with flow is best.... FTI's meanderings and rubber bands.

Let me know if you find anything. I'd happily test it and feed back my findings.
  • #52,824
  • Aug 14, 2015 8:42am Aug 14, 2015 8:42am
Quoting Talzus
{quote} Let me know if you find anything. I'd happily test it and feed back my findings.

I am not sure if we can use this spread info or not to help us... can we see the shading.... best way is to go with flow (we follow......).... look for the traps and what happens after 'em...... in the short there were nice long traps and in the long the same. Who knows on this shading thingy........as we cannot see the orders. Getting bit confused...........

Anyways had enough for now......
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #52,825
  • Aug 14, 2015 9:22am Aug 14, 2015 9:22am
today's charts have been very messy.... aside is also a trade....it is better to wait for easy targets there is alway tomorrow (well monday).

AOW...

2. To secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity
of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #52,826
  • Aug 14, 2015 9:29am Aug 14, 2015 9:29am
Quoting phil13
today's charts have been very messy.... aside is also a trade....it is better to wait for easy targets there is alway tomorrow (well monday). AOW... 2. To secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself. regards Phil.
Newsy day.....

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #52,827
  • Aug 17, 2015 2:24am Aug 17, 2015 2:24am
Hows everyone doing.....


V
  • #52,828
  • Aug 17, 2015 2:27am Aug 17, 2015 2:27am
Quoting indianguyinny24
Hows everyone doing..... V
Mnnnn not in good frame of mind at mo' for some reason - too much fresh air yesterday - .. so not really on it today.
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #52,829
  • Aug 17, 2015 2:36am Aug 17, 2015 2:36am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Mnnnn not in good frame of mind at mo' for some reason - too much fresh air yesterday - .. so not really on it today.

NO position is good postion sometimes

V
  • #52,830
  • Edited 3:07am Aug 17, 2015 2:38am | Edited 3:07am
Quoting indianguyinny24
{quote} NO position is good postion sometimes V
Yes... thank you.

If poor feel or do not like terrain.... stay out is what I do now... watch things to learn more sometimes or walk away or sometimes trade very small scout.

Thank you.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #52,831
  • Aug 17, 2015 3:23am Aug 17, 2015 3:23am
Quoting indianguyinny24
Hows everyone doing..... V

Hi Vic

good to see you here again .

all good here for me thanks, hope things are going well for you my friend.


regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #52,832
  • Aug 17, 2015 5:09pm Aug 17, 2015 5:09pm
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Yes... thank you. If poor feel or do not like terrain.... stay out is what I do now... watch things to learn more sometimes or walk away or sometimes trade very small scout. Thank you. Alex

Breath , sometime it is that easy

V
  • #52,833
  • Aug 17, 2015 5:10pm Aug 17, 2015 5:10pm
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi Vic good to see you here again . all good here for me thanks, hope things are going well for you my friend. regards Phil.

I am good Phil,

how are you doing.I am nto trading due to some stuff , i might need to make some hard decision if i have to trade so i am working on that.

I haven't paid visit here for sometime so that i can be sure what i want to do.

V

PS: I do demo trades only. and was up 7% last month
  • #52,834
  • Aug 17, 2015 11:24pm Aug 17, 2015 11:24pm
http://www.infowars.com/economic-cri...-buys-up-gold/

There is much difference between Gold and bullion. D is no longer Quant. Soros already disbanded Q many years. Is a private punt, not says anything about economy, really.
maybe he betting panda devaluation and red white and b may want to follow. Then best bet is yellow metal.
personally i believe panda have large yellow stockpile. If she devalues, what will she sell to create currency. I think this can go both ways. Not means economy will slump. Anyway i not gambler, so lets see what their actions first. I bets down after the ball drop into the roulette. safer bets. Now need find ways gets near the table only. maybe lucky gets a quicky. Already out stock options. cass is king.
wondering if rogers is now buying yellow or land? I think he's last yellow bug.watching sg and aus indirect impact.
i hate start buying and they dump on me. If D is buying , would had already in the pot.

V, anything on your end? any ripples?

regards
  • #52,835
  • Aug 18, 2015 2:07am Aug 18, 2015 2:07am
Quoting fti
http://www.infowars.com/economic-cri...-buys-up-gold/ There is much difference between Gold and bullion. D is no longer Quant. Soros already disbanded Q many years. Is a private punt, not says anything about economy, really. maybe he betting panda devaluation and red white and b may want to follow. Then best bet is yellow metal. personally i believe panda have large yellow stockpile. If she devalues, what will she sell to create currency. I think this can go both ways. Not means economy will slump. Anyway i not...

Not yet but will look around.... Aus is doomed what i have figured and i am shamelessy short on it.....

V
  • #52,836
  • Aug 18, 2015 5:36am Aug 18, 2015 5:36am
sorry late reply, body not so fine.

noted. i no care if long or short.
both makes money, i will be long and short.

i felt a little funny after read the article. the general expectations is looking for rate hawks.
so not fit the puzzle properly. smells funny.

good fortune.

regards
  • #52,837
  • Aug 18, 2015 9:25am Aug 18, 2015 9:25am
no need to listen to me . Remember I am just a demo trader
V
  • #52,838
  • Aug 18, 2015 4:34pm Aug 18, 2015 4:34pm
Hi fti
I am a newbie on demo for 7 months on Oil Chart (CL) with Instaforex (Russian broker)
Your technique is awesome and I want to learn it. Thank you for trying to teach us. I'll use and study it carefully
I have read your instructions in this thread up to page 85
I tried to apply it on my demo account and I am confused with some issues

I. MO on M5 (my understanding of your method)
1. I should not use any TA indicators nor Stop Loss
2. Look at D trend and follow it, only trade in the same direction
3. Look at H1, notice the chart pattern and SR level
4. Watch price movement (price actions) and sense its momentum on M5. Wait until the trend move in the same direction as D then enter with a scout
4a. If it moves in the direction add troops after correction
4b If it moves in the other direction, watch it bleed, and wait for possible reversal by chart pattern development, SR lvl, and price action and momentum
Then add rescue troops using Fib to determine size only
5. Use proper MM and capitalization to be able to stand the bleed and obtain good profits

I realized the most important aspect in this MO is "the dance" to spot continuation and reversal
How do I learn to dance on M5 ?
1. I need to be aware of chart pattern development change by each new bar
2. I need to feel and differentiate price movement (actions) and its momentum that gives signal to reversal or continuation
3. any reference books/materials to learn the "dance" ? how do I know the signals for reversal and continuation in price actions ?

How do I determine trend and spot trend reversal ?
Today in my trade I saw overall trend on D is down
the last 3 days all are down, so usually the 4th bar is countertrend
It hit a strong historical support line and bounced 3 times
On H1 it broke Resistance line and started a strong uptrend all day, so I feel like catching a fallen knife because I traded against current H1 uptrend eventhough D still downtrend
Should I determine trend on H1 instead of D in order to follow the most current trend? Can I trade following H1 uptrend ? or should I avoid trade at all that day ?
How do I know if it's just a counter trend or a reversal since it bounced support line 3 times ? I am afraid the trend reverse and I am caught against it ?

Any comment on Instaforex ? or should I use other broker ?
Any comment on trading Oil ? is forex better than oil for trading ?

rt15
  • #52,839
  • Edited 3:51am Aug 19, 2015 2:35am | Edited 3:51am
Quoting rt15
Your technique is awesome and I want to learn it. Thank you for trying to teach us. I'll use and study it carefully I have read your instructions in this thread up to page 85
Read more of thread is my advice (at least 1st 200 pages) you have much more to learn from it ............. you are way too rigid and predictive..........(I am too sometimes... it is hard to change it)... I still reread start of thread as each time I get more from it.

...........if a) then do b).......nice program except we are not robots (nor markets... well not really).

FTI technique........ AOW or maybe dancing the tango.... follow the market

Stop loss is defo sitting ducks.

Indicators: up to you what if anything you want to do with them but do you understand what each one you may wish to use is telling you if anything? I do have h1/h4 averages around in background and often ignore them..........

If D1 tells you down but price is pushing long strong how could you go short.... seems to me........also seems to me there are signs when it wants to reverse ..... we get clues but we can always be wrong so need to manage it......I do not think sticking rigidly to "trend" is good idea either we need to flow more with momentum...........just my opinion..... it is too easy to constantly look for a trend reversing tho' and miss good moves ......

Too rigid go with flow and see where it takes you.... and read more of thread in between.

Watch out for those tricks too....patterns evolve inc. candle patterns so things are not always as we think......

There are books mentioned throughout the thread that are useful for accumulation/distribution/trend/patterns etc... search thread for books and/or Hill- good in parts.

Regards
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #52,840
  • Aug 19, 2015 8:54am Aug 19, 2015 8:54am
Thx Alex
I have a lot to learn, I keep reading the thread to 200 and beyond

before MM, I think the 1st I need to learn is 'dancing'
besides chart development in the making and practice at M5
is there anything I can watch for reversal and continuation signs ? (since I can't watch any TA for signs)

Now I don't use MM yet
just 0.5 in demo and try to feel the market


rt15
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