james16 Chart Thread

Remember Ryanmcd ? The older guys will. Good advice albeit trading on a low time frame, as he does, is not recommended for new people. Try it on the higher time frames. Just an idea. The trader has to be patient though, and wait for suitable trades.

http://swing-trading-strategies.com/...ng-strategies/

Anybody else with me on the USDNOK daily Pin?

Hey Mike,
great that you take the time to comment on the charts.
I was digesting your input mentally from the last post want to take also the time to write some lines in response.
Tried to make a contribution to this thread since April, but this post has a more critical touch, hope you will understand this.


Regarding the entry,
I agree with your boxes at 1.1200 and 1.1080 but when the trade was taken,
I could not see your box in the middle at ~ 1.1130.
For the explanation I took shot in MT4 at the time of the entry. The entry was taken right after the close
of the second green 4H bar after the pin, which showed some kind of retracement.
Entry was also 30M after the Empire State Manufacturing Index data which was the worst since years (pic in the attachment).
For me this piece of data is a market environment factor, which I dont want to ignore and in
this environment, in combination with the 4H bar after the pin, buying the brake made sense.

At the end of the day, I rather came to the conclusion that this is just an inevitable loosing trade,
which brings me to the second topic:


Regarding risk reward,
Sure you can remove your exposed risk by moving the stop, no question about that.
What I mean is the initial risk to make a certain amount (iRR).
It just feels awkward to risk 1% in order to make 1% (on D1) in the markets which are per se risky.
I mean in the financial markets, reoccuring imponderabilities are a matter of fact and
losses are part of the game.
In such conditions your are prone to a shrinking balance when the RR is 1:1.

I mean ok, it can be said you have to be picky about your trades.
Sure, no question about that, but in my opinion this is equal to having a high win rate.
And what can be improved more, a high win rate or RR ratio ?
I think in case of the winrate the top is reached far earlier



Before trading the method in this thread, I had/have a different strategy.
Why not entering at a very clear S/R with tight default stop of 30-50 pips,
without paying attention to a price action bar.
SL is fixed and never moved to give the trade room to breath.
Just entering at a strong S/R zone for the best price near the lows of the zone
and getting out when new D1 or W1 lows/highs are reached.
This way "many" loosers occur, but when a trade works out the
looser trades are easily compensated since a high iRR is reached.


I want to show an example of this approach in form of a trade i took today (long EUR-AUD)
The entry was a cheap price at the low of the support zone at 1.5000
and had nothing to do with the formed 4H pin.
SL was never moved and at 1.4959. TP was executed manually at 1.5122.
In this little example the risk was 48 and the gain 115 pips, which is a iRR of 1 : 2.4
If the trade moves to the major swing high at 1.5300 iRR could reach 1 : 6.1
In my opinion, both iRR of 1 : 2.4 and 1 : 6.1 are extremely difficult to reach
trading J16 4H and D1.




Best,
K

Helloe zamfir,

sure I marked the CAD-CHF pin with a blue arrow and
Im using 17:00 NY close for the D1 candle with oanda feed.
Entered the pin on at a retracement of around 50%
and the blue line indicates the SR zone.

Best,
K

Hi Kershey

Not all pins are created equally. The one you took, may not even be called pin because the tail needs to stick out. Look at the previous one highlighted on the same chart. That pin is bigger than average bar and definitively sticking out.

If you are trading the 4H and 1H etc... you'll find those almost everyday, If you trade the daily, a couple a week unless you trade exotics, commodities, etc.... It's just a matter of putting effort to finding them imo

I hope this helps

EUR/USD H1 BUOVB. Nice break north for a few pips. Some space to move into.

Update: closed trade at BE. Price looking bearish.



EUR/AUD H1 BUOVB. D1 BUOVB. If price can break above congestion to the left, there's space to move north into. Let's see.

Safe travels Inco! All the best Mike.



Update: EUR/AUD H1. Locked in 110 pips profit. S/L taken out. No worries.




AUD/NZD D1 IB. Sell.



Update: AUD/NZD H4 visual. Look at all that open space to fall into. Ain't it grand? There are buyers around 1.1010 area so expecting some stalling there, reversal, or may continue down to 1.0825 TP area.



EUR/NZD H4 PB. If this can break and trade/close above BRN 1.69000 we could be off to the races.

Hey K

What you are misunderstanding about James16 is that what we do is about formulating a story around strong confluence. Sometimes this comes with PA bars as a trigger sometimes this comes with just a pure touch trade much like you describe with your eur/aud.

i trade touch trades, breakotus, fake breakouts, swing trades, sideways markets, reversals etc

So if everyone can just pick s/r and just set a buy/sell at that area and make their take profit an arbitrary number like 2 times their risk why do so many lose? Simple. Because it doesn't work that way. You have to do certain things VERY right and very consistent to be profitable in the long run. Any method if not done right will have it's flaws.

What most people do is come to james16 read about a pinbar and then just pick them out and try to trade them. That won't work as many have said here. The bars you have marked are just bars at weak locations. What my previous post was about is if you take a bar like that and on top of it play it in a way that even when they do work out for you you will struggle because your losses will be larger and your wins small.

The best piece of advice I can give you is to make sure you evaluate each trade as a separate entity. Every trade has it's own story with important details and clues. What separates the winners and losers is their ability to manage their risk through high probability situations. It's not about some R:R. R:R is not the only detail. Win rate + R:R etc. The best thing to actually understand your method would be to use profit factor to understand the size of your winners vs your losers

I can pull up tons of charts where my overall risk might be .5R with a potential gain of 3/4/5r. That in terms of R:R would blow away most people. But the key is to understanding how to get to that point and that not all trades offer that. If you are searching for entries try to think about things from start to finish how everything integrates into each other. That was my point on the previous post.

Their is NOTHING wrong with an approach that has a fixed stop loss and fixed targets. But the only way that will work in the long run is if you have a true edge. Simply having a higher R:R from the "start" will not make a trader a winner. If it was that easy everyone would do it. You have to find reasons and ways to filter trades and for specific reasons. What that does is build a consistency into your approach that will get you from month to month and in the long run put you in the winning side. Markets are constantly changing, month to month things change and if you are not able to have this consistency it's only a matter of time What I was showing you too is that viewing R:R from only one view point is flawed. That same trade I showed you a better entry for specific reasons that would increase your gain and decrease your risk. That puts R:R in your control. The key is to apply that logic to trades where it makes sense. I will NOT go risk 3% of my account knowing that I have no control over that 3% risk. Yes my target might be 3%, or 6% or 10% or even 1% but i'll do that knowing that I can effectively stay and maintain that trade with a risk that is worth getting involved. So instead of really having 3% at risk the trade has a REAL risk of much much less.

I know i've already said the above but understanding this truly can change ones trading. I've dedicated my trading life basically to this topic. And it took a long time for it to integrate correctly with the rest of trading which is a long list for another post.

Again this is from my experience of almost 15 years. Nothing more nothing less. If something works for you that is GREAT! But really I think for me it's more about just trying to help you understand where some of your thinking with what we do is misunderstood so that you can utilize that info in any way you see fit. Or not of course too.


Hope that helps and of course like I said whatever works for you you should just stick too. At the end of the day what matters is making money. If what you are doing in a different manner works great! Get great at it. Spend every month understanding and analyzing your actions. Trade with and stick to it. You will have good days/bad days. Good months/bad months. The key to understand is when it is your mistake in how you applied the concepts you used or simply a normal market loss as you said. Your need to call that just a loss is what spurred this for me because doing this for a long time and understanding what we do here I know that's an application issue and why I tried to help. The markets exist because everyone is doing their own things with the market. My warnings are only in that the only people I ever see succeed long term have concrete plans and trading models that are built around specific ideas that are repeatable/flexible and they are CONSISTENT in this approach.


Best of luck!
Mike


PS for the rest of you I will be away from this thread a bit more of the coming days as my gf is going in for another round of more serious surgery tomorrow. Please be NICE and those of you that continue to jump in and help I can't tell you how good that makes me feel!

Hi Mike,
I hope all will be good and speedy recovery.

Sorry Kershey, but that's not a trade-able pin bar. The bar before that is a slightly better pin bar (still not a Grade A pin bar because of the big body but at least the location is somewhat better), and technically you could enter at 50% retrace of this pin during the next "pin", and got out at the PPZ 0.7500 for a small profit. We don't trade pin bar for the sake of it being a long tail, small body bar anywhere. Pin bars are defined by the left and right eyes; and the "pin" you marked had no left eye.

You may take my comments above and below with a heaped tablespoon of salt since I'm still a newbie, but I want to chime in for a bit. Learning through discussions, right?

Some thoughts on your most recent charts:
The EUR-USD H4: Good pin, at swing low of the boxed area, rejecting PPZ. But by trading it at the close of the next bar, you're trading right into the trouble area in the middle of the box. That's why it likely becomes a losing trade.

The EUR-AUD H2: It looks to me the trade is inadvertently a J16 PA trade, even if you're disregarding the pin bar PA. My humble newbie understanding from reading tons and tons of J16 and this thread's senior's posts, charts, and watching videos on the J16 PF, is that the trading taught here is to trade with the story built around PPZ, S/R, location, trend, confluence of levels, and direction of the story is lastly confirmed by a PA. Ignoring the PA confirmation, the rest of the method is actually similar to your original method of trading off significant S/R levels. On the other hand, your recent posts seem to show that you're doing it the other way around when you're learning/testing the J16 method.

As for having a fixed number of pips as SL vs using the opposite end of the PA bar as SL, I feel that either way works, but I think the second SL method is to let price do its thing with its tendency to sometimes retrace before going in the direction of our prediction. I also find that moving SL after letting the trade breathe initially makes me feel more comfortable because managing risk and protecting capital makes sense to me (my day job is safety & risk analysis and management after all).

Hi Protuberanec,

i checked your last trade in the list - buy EURUSD on 23rd of June 2015 - i dont see any BUOB on the chart in that day. Have you checked it?

Thanks,
Bat.

AUDNZD 1HR, price cut through S&R area, now waiting for retrace

Today on intraday - Nice shorts on GBP. Almost there.

GBPUSD - BE



GBPJPY - BE

can someone block this guy, majid? its really annoying.

I'm onto this too friend. Good trading.

Nice stuff Zamfir.

Majid, page 1 post 1 will make you rich before your time friend.

great post Mike.

No stress FXBat. As you know, we get such posts from time to time. Don't let it put you off the strength and basic trading power of the 10 years of gold this thread has provided, and continues to do so, with traders like you and other current folk continually contributing. Keep logging the screen time friend and don't worry about others.

Noooo...why? He seems to found the Super Duper Perfect trading system with 100% accuracy lol

OK seriously whats up with this commercial members spam lately

Yeah what a clown

The only strategy you need is as teached by mike on this thread alone. Mike knows his stuff and teaches it very well with great patience.
I don,t post much on here but I do look in everyday and trade james16 as my main strategy and very similar to mike's teaching and would like to send a personal thank you to Mike for his hard work and wish his girlfriend all the best.

If I could give one small piece of advice to new readers that would make a huge differance it would be don't trade into traffic

Kind Regards
Seabreeze

Hey Guys,
There is long time period Trendline act as support for now. and there is fibo level act as support too.
I would like to draw your attention. Good luck.

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Zoom in

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Greetings Gas G. As I'm trying to increase my diamond rating back to it's former glory I will weigh in here. Err, I dunno.

Except to say page 1 post 1 is always good reading.

Thx PA. Noted and good point.

GB.