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The Really Useless Thread

  • #136,621
  • Aug 19, 2015 1:00pm Aug 19, 2015 1:00pm
Quoting Pharm0r
A fuckin leak....
yeap fckers ...it really sucks if you are an honest retailer ... bastards ... I hope you managed to load some earlier...

In any case, clearing final target (1131.xx) in GOLD and flat as pancake there....

Quoting sisse
GOLD nearly completed the final target 1131.xx [check] after inflation reports. Here clearing most before the Minutes and let the remain open for the "just in case" while Euro sitting comatose at the expected 1.105x [check]for the leg....
sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,622
  • Aug 19, 2015 1:03pm Aug 19, 2015 1:03pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} yeap fckers ...it really sucks if you are an honest retailer ... bastards ... I hope you managed to load some earlier... In any case, clearing final target (1131.xx) in GOLD and flat as pancake there.... {quote} sisse
I edited it

Loading a basket full of shorts. It got the last 1/4 of my previous shorts for positive pips, no worries here hombre.
  • #136,623
  • Aug 19, 2015 1:09pm Aug 19, 2015 1:09pm
...and clearing first target in US equites on the test 2090.xx... not expecting much more today there...happy with that so trailing rest for the fill or kill....

Quoting sisse
Equities on the edge across the globe via China but European close holding the break will point to the start of the rally given the inflation news and potential Hikes in December.... I am tracking very closely the European close to load US equities (S&P 2075.xx [check] ---> 2100.xx[in play] play for reference)
sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,624
  • Aug 19, 2015 1:20pm Aug 19, 2015 1:20pm
Quoting sisse
Done..
great depth of the market. really great depth. good job, week in week out.
  • #136,625
  • Aug 19, 2015 4:10pm Aug 19, 2015 4:10pm
Quoting 21vs7
{quote} great depth of the market. really great depth. good job, week in week out.
thanks for the kind words...

---- ---- ------ ---- ---- ------ ---- ---- ------ ---- ---- ------ ---- ---- ------ ---- ---- ------

Super important session across the board with key changes in outlooks that have been holding for a while:

1. Oil hammered and unlocking PANIC LEG to $36.xx and extension $26.4x this year !!!. This is a massive game changer in my books and it will have an impact not only in equities across the world but in the FED and BOE rates decisions.

---> Changing OIL short term outlook back to Monday from neutral to sell the rallies.

2. US equities broke correlation !!! with dollar on a strong close down marking an important short term signal on shift on rates expectations.

---> Changing US Equities short term outlook in equities from sell to neutral.

---> Keep short term outlook in dollar in neutral but more importantly a break below lows until the W close will automatically make me change the MID TERM !!! outlook from BUY TO NEUTRAL (I know for those following meaning December hikes entering in play...) at least until further data.

3. Gold also breaking super strong slope on the downtrend aiming to find a more sustainable down trend.

---> Changing Gold short term outlook from sell to neutral

....to wrapped up summer month pretty much over data wise (only US GDP left from the important ones) so lots of adjustments across the board and without further surprises this week, they will hold at least until September ECB/NFP/FED combo that will ignite direction for the rest of the year ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,626
  • Aug 19, 2015 4:34pm Aug 19, 2015 4:34pm
Quoting sisse
1. Oil hammered and unlocking PANIC LEG to $36.xx and extension $26.4x this year !!!. This is a massive game changer in my books and it will have an impact not only in equities across the world but in the FED and BOE rates decisions.
oil is where it's at on any timeframe, wti will swing US equities for sure if it keeps sliding below $40, but I expect there will be short-term opps to trade a bounce there long. Will be interesting to see what persistent $3x.xx wti (or lower) does to the overleveraged speculative upstream sector, perhaps the high-yield bond market will take a deeper dive, and that will swing equities lower, too. If vain hope would allow the Fed to pop a 10-25 bps hike in Sept, with all that going on, well boy howdy, we might get a deep enough Autumn dive in equities to make one's year...

But likely they'll take any excuse to keep can kicking. For those on a longer horizon, keep an eye out for bottoming US oil stocks to pick up cheap shares. It might take months or years, but oil will not scrape so low for so long. Hard to time with futures or options, though, shares maybe the better bet.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136,627
  • Aug 19, 2015 4:50pm Aug 19, 2015 4:50pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} 2. US equities broke correlation !!! with dollar on a strong close down marking an important short term signal on shift on rates expectations. ---> Changing US Equities short term outlook in equities from sell to neutral. --->
Hello Sisse
if I understood you correctly "shift on rates expectations" means that the market increases its expectations for incoming rate-hike?
Thanks
  • #136,628
  • Aug 19, 2015 4:58pm Aug 19, 2015 4:58pm
Quoting The Fool
For those on a longer horizon, keep an eye out for bottoming US oil stocks to pick up cheap shares. It might take months or years, but oil will not scrape so low for so long. Hard to time with futures or options, though, shares maybe the better bet.
(seriously?....Cramer?) - yeah, but when there's blood in the streets . The trick will be to pick the survivors....

http://business-news.thestreet.com/h...-song/13260535
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136,629
  • Aug 19, 2015 5:02pm Aug 19, 2015 5:02pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} oil is where it's at on any timeframe, wti will swing US equities for sure if it keeps sliding below $40, but I expect there will be short-term opps to trade a bounce there long. W.... If vain hope would allow the Fed to pop a 10-25 bps hike in Sept, with all that going on, well boy howdy, we might get a deep enough Autumn dive in equities to make one's year... But likely they'll take any excuse to keep can kicking. For those on a longer horizon, keep an eye out for bottoming US oil stocks to pick up cheap shares. It might take...
Well problem with trading short term longs OIL is that market is completed one sided (supply and demand aligned) and heavy leveraged with speculators. As you well now that is a recipe for disaster as it always happen in any manic highs pre Lehman / Dot Com or any panic lows as in Equites on 2008 and the same OIL in the 90s ... The short term bounces will sure be super sharp, strong and juicy but timing will be a pain in the ass and very expensive to trade it until right ....

However, I agree with you that after we start stabilising rates in the US, picking up in Europe and China finds a bottom, Oil WONT remain for long below $30/$40. We will more than probably get a extended long term chop zone for a few years around $50/$60...but that is entering in the realm of futurology so take it with a pinch of salt this last part.

My more realistic long term bet will be to start looking for opps in US Oil Stocks around Q2/Q3 2016...

On rates, after the latest developments and reports markets are starting to move from 60/40 Sep to more 50/50 now. The main issue If we don't get the hike in Sep is that Gradual will become Sharper hikes and that will open a complete different map in terms of timing and strength of the legs ....

We'll see v. soon.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,630
  • Aug 19, 2015 5:03pm Aug 19, 2015 5:03pm
Quoting jaxx80
{quote} Hello Sisse if I understood you correctly "shift on rates expectations" means that the market increases its expectations for incoming rate-hike? Thanks
Remember Sisse pointed at possible december hikes instead of september. Meaning dollar neutral/bearish instead of bullish. That's why he's shifting from buy to neutral. If I'm understanding this correctly... always afraid to make wrong assumptions so please correct me if I'm wrong.
  • #136,631
  • Aug 19, 2015 5:07pm Aug 19, 2015 5:07pm
Quoting ExForX
{quote} Remember Sisse pointed at possible december hikes instead of september. Meaning dollar neutral/bearish instead of bullish. That's why he's shifting from buy to neutral. If I'm understanding this correctly... always afraid to make wrong assumptions so please correct me if I'm wrong.
yeap...and don't be afraid to interpret wrong or right ...just shoot your view or ask if you are in doubt ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,632
  • Aug 19, 2015 5:50pm Aug 19, 2015 5:50pm
even so- China and Germany have stepped in to be the black cloud over the euro....

and Greece

and Portugal

and Spain.....

and QE..

and oil...
  • #136,633
  • Aug 19, 2015 6:32pm Aug 19, 2015 6:32pm
Quoting sisse
My more realistic long term bet will be to start looking for opps in US Oil Stocks around Q2/Q3 2016...
another good bargain hunter tip for the oil bottoms is: solar stocks...SUNE, SPWR, CSIQ, etc.....all will bounce back with higher oil prices
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136,634
  • Aug 19, 2015 6:34pm Aug 19, 2015 6:34pm
Quoting sisse
{quote}...Keep short term outlook in dollar in neutral but more importantly a break below lows until the W close will automatically make me change the MID TERM !!! outlook from BUY TO NEUTRAL (I know for those following meaning December hikes entering in play...) at least until further data.
Hello, Sisse. I would like to echo the gratitude of other traders for your extremely enlightening posts.

On the topic above, do you mean if Oil breaks below the lows until the W close or if the EUR/USD pair breaks below the lows until the W close - you will adjust your mid-term bias on the $? I assume you meant E/U but just wanted to be certain.

Thanks again.
  • #136,635
  • Aug 19, 2015 11:22pm Aug 19, 2015 11:22pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} another good bargain hunter tip for the oil bottoms is: solar stocks...SUNE, SPWR, CSIQ, etc.....all will bounce back with higher oil prices
Have you seen these circulating facebook? Halarious
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  • #136,636
  • Aug 19, 2015 11:48pm Aug 19, 2015 11:48pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Have you seen these circulating facebook? Halarious {image}
.... ....
The Chonchy
  • #136,637
  • Aug 19, 2015 11:52pm Aug 19, 2015 11:52pm
....Sisse I don't have words to express how much your analysis help my trading but believe me, it do....thanks
The Chonchy
  • #136,638
  • Aug 20, 2015 2:35am Aug 20, 2015 2:35am
Quoting chonchy
....Sisse I don't have words to express how much your analysis help my trading but believe me, it do....thanks
Detto!Thanks the effort Sisse!
f(z)=z2+c
  • #136,639
  • Aug 20, 2015 3:44am Aug 20, 2015 3:44am
Thanks guys for the kind words...

Quoting sisse
Confuse FED / Slightly Dovish for a test of key 1.114x[check] in a tradable exhaustion leg 1.127x with max ext 1.134x for the RATES play in Sep....
Not expecting much in terms of short term momentum but rather measured moves. 1.114x [check] is the only level to track for the W and its flip zone for the play....
As widely expected 1.114x tested and cleared overnight and European digesting the FED "nothing new" with a strong assault on the floor in equities.

More importantly for today and for those following since early this week, DAX lost floor in the european close yesterday and was confirmed after the FOMC minutes with a daily close break too unlocking a tradable leg for a test 1000x with a strong stop 1054x.

Even for those not trading directly a break down DAX(european equities in general) with momentum will carry Euro with it ....

Quoting sisse
complete disaster on the making and obviously sending shockwaves in european equities for the open. MAJOR ALERTS triggered in DAX. A break below 1074x [check] could signal the opening of pandoras box in equities across the world.
Nothing to see here as long as 1.114x hold so same levels, same trades, same all ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,640
  • Aug 20, 2015 6:35am Aug 20, 2015 6:35am
...and that was it for the european session. A calm and simple session across the board, European equity markets trying to form some intraday floor but the odds of succeeding looks bleak without the US on board. Map pretty simple until London goes home: A break below in equites will carry euro to break to the 1.12xx (there are macro stops stacked on the early 1.12xx handle) ...failure its back to chop zone....

The usual no break, no shake in the euro ....so nothing to see until NY shows the digested reaction to the FOMC yesterday....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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