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  • #136,601
  • Aug 18, 2015 11:09am Aug 18, 2015 11:09am
Thoughts re: tomorrow US CPI? Anyone care to weigh in on what will be enough of a miss to push EU up significantly? or enough of a beat to push it down?

I see core CPI consensus projection is 0.2. The range since last August is 0.0-0.3. I don't have any special knowledge in this area, so just looking at a few things makes me think we are looking at 0.1 for tomorrow, which should push EU up and break 1.1214 recent high this week. I expect to be on the sidelines until the numbers come out, though, then join in the fun.
defense wins championships
  • #136,602
  • Aug 18, 2015 5:41pm Aug 18, 2015 5:41pm
Quoting seemoore
Thoughts re: tomorrow US CPI? Anyone care to weigh in on what will be enough of a miss to push EU up significantly? or enough of a beat to push it down? I see core CPI consensus projection is 0.2. The range since last August is 0.0-0.3. I don't have any special knowledge in this area, so just looking at a few things makes me think we are looking at 0.1 for tomorrow, which should push EU up and break 1.1214 recent high this week. I expect to be on the sidelines until the numbers come out, though, then join in the fun.
Gbp core beat handily, NZD-gdt up 14 +%. The oil fall really didn't take off until this month and china just did its thing last week...The number might be up tomorrow because its a read on last months activity..... Next month will prob be negative due to stated factors. If inflation misses....e/u going to fly .........with gbp and nzd seeing signs of inflation it will mean pronounced weakness for usd and move one step closer to putting fed on hold until dec.
  • #136,603
  • Aug 19, 2015 3:11am Aug 19, 2015 3:11am
China crumbling in front of our eyes. Nearly -10% in two days and counting, nothing short of a complete disaster on the making and obviously sending shockwaves in european equities for the open. MAJOR ALERTS triggered in DAX. A break below 1074x could signal the opening of pandoras box in equities across the world.

For today, all eyes in inflation and the FED as there are the last major inflation numbers before September Rate decision. Only delaying rates could save the day for Equities. On the rest of the board main markets reacting as expected pre news since yesterday with Oil its way to the 44.xx handle on inventories, Gold flirting to the test 1131.xx and Euro chopping around 1.105x before inflation news...

Nothing to see here until later so same levels, same trades, same all ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,604
  • Aug 19, 2015 7:24am Aug 19, 2015 7:24am
....and here we go for the key round of news.

As suspected in the euro since last week, setting the Monthly High in play for this session and as widely expected with 1.105x as starting line for reports. Week starts today for currencies, Dollar in full control via rates.

Simple and Direct reading today: Inline or slightly lower ZIGZAG with the Minutes later tradable play 1.105x --->1.114x as only key level to track to unlock a potential exhaustion leg before rates to 1.127x with max extension 1.134x to reload and top up shorts for the mid term leg to parity. Only an overshoot (not expected at all) will unlock a direct hit to the lows of the 1.090x handle.

Markets aligned for a miss in inflation but for a slightly hawkish minutes. However, China is playing a strong wild card and equites in Europe got hit (but held any major break in the morning). US equites also losing foot pre open and reports but still holding any further move down. If inflation and FOMC goes as expected we will have another rally to the highs to set the HIGH of the month also in Equites.

GOLD and Oil behaving as expected on the positions form Monday. Gold will follow strongly inflation and dollar via rates while OIL has inventories in between US data so .... lots of opps across the board.

For those already trading in some instruments, nothing to see but sit tight until data comes so same trades, for those planning to trade in others, all maps cleared so same levels ...and for those just tracking all eyes in Dollar setting the RMT fireworks, Oil opening hells gate via inventories for a PANIC leg and in Equities, China carrying a potential global washout ...

Lots of action for the last week and half or summer trading ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,605
  • Aug 19, 2015 7:31am Aug 19, 2015 7:31am
0.1%, I'd say that's a perfect report for an excuse to visit the 1.11xx area and reload shorts....hopefully...

hope you don't mind if I join you sisse, time for my regularly scheduled EU thread break over the next few months.
  • #136,606
  • Aug 19, 2015 7:43am Aug 19, 2015 7:43am
Quoting Pharm0r
0.1%, I'd say that's a perfect report for an excuse to visit the 1.11xx area and reload shorts....hopefully... hope you don't mind if I join you sisse, time for my regularly scheduled EU thread break over the next few months.
Oh come on ... please do as I am also on my way out ...that damn pending RMT conversation that still hasn't pan out is keeping me on hold here ...je je je...

This thread has always been the best quality thread in the FF so please do keep it alive as there are still few real, honest and without commercial interest traders in these boards that need a space for proper intelligent market and trading discussion...

---- ---- ---- ----

In any case, yes missed on the headline as expected so lets see how it pans out ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,607
  • Aug 19, 2015 7:51am Aug 19, 2015 7:51am
[quote=ClinicalEx;8426478]{quote} 1.098 holding as expected with word needed from FOMC members to put momentum in overdrive. 1.0922 has become important. Only the most committed bulls are holding there and it's likely that there will be solid longs covering just below with 1.088 another interim level with heavy implications and quickly opened with the 092 break. A move below 088 and the bulls are quickly running out of time and excuses, and covering hard, which brings 1.072 into play syncing the technicals beautifully for the next NFP and for tracking the next FED. I think members here are tracking DXY so for now a pretty orderly move to 97.55 (it wasn't a blockbuster NFP but DID offer a buy the lows/sell the highs play.) with 97.95 the crucial resistance holding the dollar at bay. Treasuries holding 127.69 via .57.

Treasuries shadowing the move on the pair so the first reaction is strongly dislocating inflation from initial hikes. I think Lockhart said as much too but I can't remember which statement it was. Let's see how it goes. Pair is a killzone for trading now and 1.1040 only level in play.
  • #136,608
  • Aug 19, 2015 7:56am Aug 19, 2015 7:56am
Quoting hathor
{quote} {quote} 2015.05.24-29. week still defended
defended again ^^
Until weekly/monthly sell signal the plan will be the same.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #136,609
  • Aug 19, 2015 8:11am Aug 19, 2015 8:11am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Oh come on ... please do as I am also on my way out ...that damn pending RMT conversation that still hasn't pan out is keeping me on hold here ...je je je... This thread has always been the best quality thread in the FF so please do keep it alive as there are still few real, honest and without commercial interest traders in these boards that need a space for proper intelligent market and trading discussion... ---- ---- ---- ---- In any case, yes missed on the headline as expected so lets see how it pans out ... sisse
Vacation or just a sabbatical?
  • #136,610
  • Aug 19, 2015 8:19am Aug 19, 2015 8:19am
looking to add anywhere between 1.1115 and 1.1209, those are the two big lumbering horizontal lines. 1.113x-4x would be ideal. Gotta play find the weak candle.
  • #136,611
  • Aug 19, 2015 8:40am Aug 19, 2015 8:40am
Quoting Pharm0r
looking to add anywhere between 1.1115 and 1.1209, those are the two big lumbering horizontal lines. 1.113x-4x would be ideal. Gotta play find the weak candle.
do you moved here ? won't come back to EURUSD ?
  • #136,612
  • Aug 19, 2015 8:50am Aug 19, 2015 8:50am
Quoting sisse
-- MAJOR ALERTS triggered in DAX. A break below 1074x could signal the opening of pandoras box in equities across the world. -- ... sisse
Broken and falling.
defense wins championships
  • #136,613
  • Aug 19, 2015 8:56am Aug 19, 2015 8:56am
Quoting edyraper
{quote} do you moved here ? won't come back to EURUSD ?
More or less, posting less. I always find my way back eventually...it's healthy to separate yourself from that thread from time to time
  • #136,614
  • Aug 19, 2015 9:08am Aug 19, 2015 9:08am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} More or less, posting less. I always find my way back eventually...it's healthy to separate yourself from that thread from time to time
okay , thanks for the advise .
  • #136,615
  • Edited 9:34am Aug 19, 2015 9:18am | Edited 9:34am
U.S. stocks fall at open as consumer-price report hints at rate increase:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-...eakingNewsMain

but ..it could still be smoke, mirrors and rumors.
The fact that EU is not moving is suspect..
  • #136,616
  • Aug 19, 2015 9:46am Aug 19, 2015 9:46am
Inventories report completed... and OIL getting hammered from all fronts (China, Rates, and Supply side). KEY session for a chance to form a very short term bottom @41.8x to complete the $44.xx retrace. Counterintuitive given reports but my view is that MARKET is heavily loaded to one side and it wont break down below $40.xx until there is a decent rebalance between real and speculative hands ...its always is and its always haven been with oil. All EYES on 41.8x until the FOMC as a failure to hold today could open PANIC leg.....

On the rest, Equities on the edge across the globe via China but European close holding the break will point to the start of the rally given the inflation news and potential Hikes in December.... I am tracking very closely the European close to load US equities (S&P 2075.xx ---> 2100.xx play for reference)

GOLD nearly completed the final target 1131.xx after inflation reports. Here clearing most before the Minutes and let the remain open for the "just in case" while Euro sitting comatose at the expected 1.105x for the leg....

KEY and super active session across the board ...

sisse

Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Vacation or just a sabbatical?
both...

Quoting seemoore
{quote} Broken and falling.
No is not yet. Track the European close ... my 2 cents ...
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,617
  • Aug 19, 2015 11:10am Aug 19, 2015 11:10am
Strong european close with equites on an imminent break alert pre FOMC...but more importantly WATCH-OUT for OIL !!!! . Deep breach 41.8x on reports and a break with FOMC .... unlocks a historical leg in OIL ....

All eyes on the Minutes. Here very itchy fingers to load in equities and oil to complete a full house play ... but patience till the Minutes/ Daily close play ....I'll revaluate in a a few ...but same trades, same levels and same triggers in play (Oil 41.8x, S&P 2075.xx, DAX 1074x. Eur 1.105x, etc) for reports...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,618
  • Aug 19, 2015 12:44pm Aug 19, 2015 12:44pm
WE are probably witnessing the most important day of the summer across the board in the making.

Oil is hanging on a very thin line the break down and only Minutes and the carry affect would avoid/delay the break this week. A close at these levels unlock the swing to the final mid term targets (36.5x and the ext 26.4x) by the end of the year (update from July below) ...this leg will generate lots of shockwaves across main markets....

However, I am still flat since clearing the 41.2x target and maintaining neutral outlook short term outlook until today news at least

Quoting sisse
Next in line for the domino OIL. Tracking extremely closely 50.9x [check] in ....midterm swing to $36.5x and max extension $26.4x with strong intermediate stops at $48.3x [check]and $41.2x [check].... sisse
For the rest of the board, we are ready to for the Minutes. Expecting a blurred details with a slightly outcome because of uncertainty and lack of clarity on rates in September.

---> On the fundamental side

 

  1. Not expecting much today. Most if not all analysts and major players agree on the outlook. Inflation is confirmed and Employment is confirmed , only the FED needs to pull the trigger (the rest is just noise) so there is not much to see in terms of new data.

  1. Looking for 2 particular things in my case. One tangentially looking at the FED position on China (although the major crisis was after the July meeting) and the second is any small signs of FED checking out on the details as we will start shifting slowly from GRADUAL rates to more AGGRESSIVE hikes if they don't pull the trigger in September.

---> On the technical side

 

  1. All details in the majors instruments have been already detailed in the previous posts this week and nothing has change (check back post for reference).
  2. In the Euro also the same play but the most important TA part is: SETTING THE HIGH OF THE MONTH.
  3. Confuse FED / Slightly Dovish for a test of key 1.114x in a tradable exhaustion leg 1.127x with max ext 1.134x for the RATES play in September.
  4. An inline/ hawkish reading (via stronger employment perceptions and ok inflation will quickly carry a tradable test of the lows at the 1.090x handle for the September play and confirm the HIGH of this month today.
  5. Not expecting much in terms of short term momentum but rather measured moves. 1.114x is the only level to track for the W and its flip zone for the play....

---> For the actual flows

 

  1. As usual with Minutes, there is little news flow as the details will come on micro keywords and the final perception after markets digest any new info starting tomorrow with Europe opening ...
  2. For the dovish play, Inflation zigzag was the loading time 1.105x is gone now. 1.107x is the line in the sand for the hawkish play ....to the other side there is nothing to see until 1.098x is taken....

GL all

sisse

PS...and while I was writing this ...a hawkish leak in the minutes.... ufff ...wathcout the clean up before the news

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,619
  • Aug 19, 2015 12:55pm Aug 19, 2015 12:55pm
Done... Inflation is not an issue (however, not sure Oil below $40 was on the cards ...) and Employment in check ...basically FED signaling "nothing to see here" and "see you when everybody is back form the summer" ...bookmark the 4th and 5th Sep for the new season to be in full motion ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,620
  • Aug 19, 2015 12:56pm Aug 19, 2015 12:56pm
A fuckin leak....

oh btw greek deal approved
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