You will never win 100% as retail trader | Page 2 | Forex Factory

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You will never win 100% as retail trader

  • #21
  • Jul 19, 2015 7:58pm Jul 19, 2015 7:58pm
Quoting mhejek
At first english is not my mother lang. Why my title is about winning is not 100%. yes. you will never get winning 100%.except you have time machine. as retail trader , you must consist with your trading system.prize action indicator news etc. and dont forget about MM(money management) and not being greedy. how much money i lost in this bisnis?. i had lost money about 250.000$.and still counting. i will never surrender,do i know my weakness? yes i know. its about MM and being greedy.
If I were you not only would I Surrender, I would stop trading real money and open a demo account
  • #22
  • Jul 19, 2015 8:42pm Jul 19, 2015 8:42pm
Quoting mhejek
At first english is not my mother lang. Why my title is about winning is not 100%. yes. you will never get winning 100%.except you have time machine. as retail trader , you must consist with your trading system.prize action indicator news etc. and dont forget about MM(money management) and not being greedy. how much money i lost in this bisnis?. i had lost money about 250.000$.and still counting. i will never surrender,do i know my weakness? yes i know. its about MM and being greedy.
thats hadcore....
  • #23
  • Jul 20, 2015 1:50am Jul 20, 2015 1:50am
Quoting kinspk
{quote} Bro, your risk and money management will all depend on your strategy, and let's take it your strategy is 70 pips, but you need to know if it's possible to achieve. Eg, you trade on hourly, will an hour move 70 pips on average? eg if you trade daily, do Monday move 70 pips on average. I personally don't fix my TP....
Ok here again! Very difficult for me now to hold on open positions as i said usually i closed with +-70pips!

com formation!!!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYH1.png Size: 28 KB
If you have poor psychology you will struggle
  • #24
  • Jul 20, 2015 1:55am Jul 20, 2015 1:55am
and more
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYH1.png Size: 28 KB
If you have poor psychology you will struggle
  • #25
  • Jul 20, 2015 4:52am Jul 20, 2015 4:52am
Quoting dr.rackala
{quote} Thanks again! here is my last week performance, gaining very little cuz of fixed 70 pips target! similar issue! i forcefully close my open red/green trades upon hitting +-70 pips. 1:1 RR ratio {image}
Bro, looking at your performance, personally I think it's good enough, just need to fine tune a little more and figure out when to avoid trading or losses. Eg, your winnings are Monday to Wednesday, while you made losses on Thursday and Friday. If you are just a technical trader, making losses are normal on that 2 days as that are where employment/unemployment news/claims and other higher impact news occur, so try avoid those events if you cant deal with it. Learning to avoid more losses will slowly increase your overall profit.

Btw it's good to keep a record of your trades and review it and improve.
The only winner is the one who survive the longest...
  • #26
  • Jul 25, 2015 9:27am Jul 25, 2015 9:27am
im happy hear many respon from FF trader.im start trading again last week.i said to my wife.i start trading again.i use money from my corporate to buy some computer,i had lost it a half.so please support me.just let me sitting in my front cumputer.dont distract me.i need some space to return that money.than it happen.all week im quite in peace.i play a game and trading.i had return that money.with some interest for my pocket..and yea.my emotion is one of my big problem.ineed some space to trade.
  • #27
  • Jul 26, 2015 9:18am Jul 26, 2015 9:18am
Quoting mhejek
i had lost money about 250.000$.and still counting.
damn son
i lost about $110 the last 5 years and i still feel bad about it. this puts thing into perspective.
i hope you'll get em back
i lose money for a living
  • #28
  • Jul 26, 2015 9:23am Jul 26, 2015 9:23am
I hope that's $250.00 that you meant.

If that was $250k, then you need might want to get a less expensive hobby.
  • #29
  • Jul 26, 2015 9:41am Jul 26, 2015 9:41am
Indeed.
  • #30
  • Jul 26, 2015 9:50am Jul 26, 2015 9:50am
This game's fundamentals are not: win percentage, money (profit), risk reward.
This game's fundamentals are: as long as you are consistent in cutting your losses and keeping them smaller than your profits then -> consequences: your balance will start to increase, your risk reward will adapt consequently, your win precentage will increase.
I can ask you to perform a simple task: put three erasers in a case and do that for 100 times. You will not do that 100% right, sometimes you will fail, maybe you will put two erasers instead of three, and this is a simple task.
Trading is not a simple task.
Nobody is 100% right because trading is not about "creating money", trading is "moving money".

Alex
  • #31
  • Jul 26, 2015 11:53am Jul 26, 2015 11:53am
Very nice write up! I like the timing aspect of trading and agree with you 100%.

Quoting abulayyam
This is absolutely NOT TRUE at all read till the end. This is my experience and this is the way i trade: 1) You need to put a trading plan for the week Put a plan see which news are coming up and which speaches to watch. Look what happened last week for the GBP when they said time is getting so close to raise interest rate! GBPUSD up 100 pips in one hour. I was watching that as soon as it happened. Friday CPI and building news GREAT for usd what happened??? EURUSD DOWN GOLD DOWN you know what. THe best thing ever to trade with strong us news is...
  • #32
  • Aug 15, 2015 8:18am Aug 15, 2015 8:18am
Quoting kinzu
{quote} I share your view but disagree with the part where you said it works 100%. No system or trading method(s) in currency market does. Been a news trader for a long while now and I've seen news affect currencies inversely or just for a few seconds. I can say 90% but not 100%. News trading is boring but very profitable. Requires a lot patience and discipline. You will NEVER win 100% as a retail trader
Could you please share the name of the broker for news trading?
  • #33
  • Aug 16, 2015 7:59am Aug 16, 2015 7:59am
Clearly nobody can win 100% of the time.

Beginners and inexperienced traders tend, unfortunately, to be attracted to high win-rate methods of trading, but the reality is that the percentage of winning trades doesn't in itself determine the overall outcome.

There can never be certainty about the outcome of any individual trade; but collectively it's possible to have close-to-certainty that (for example) out of every 100 trades you take, you'll win 60% of them and lose the same amount of money per trade on the other 40% of them, thus making an average net profit of 20 trades per 100 trades taken.

The example above happens to assume, for simplicity, a reward-to-risk ratio of 1:1, but that doesn't matter: what matters is collectively to win more on your winning trades than you lose on your losing trades, and not to trade with real money until you've proven, consistently, on a demo account, for every method of trading you use, that that's the collective outcome.

Many practical realities predicate that for the "average trader" (whoever s/he is), it's typically going to be quite a lot easier to make consistent collective profits from trading systems/methods with lower overall win-rates and higher reward-to-risk ratios. This important point is explained and exemplified in great detail in books like Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom by Van K. Tharp and Profitability and Systematic Trading by Michael Harris.
  • #34
  • Aug 16, 2015 8:06am Aug 16, 2015 8:06am
Quoting mhejek
At first english is not my mother lang. Why my title is about winning is not 100%. yes. you will never get winning 100%.except you have time machine. as retail trader , you must consist with your trading system.prize action indicator news etc. and dont forget about MM(money management) and not being greedy. how much money i lost in this bisnis?. i had lost money about 250.000$.and still counting. i will never surrender,do i know my weakness? yes i know. its about MM and being greedy.
has the most powerful weapon is not yet decisive victory, because the most powerful weapon can kill his own master.
we don't predict, we only ride
  • #35
  • Aug 19, 2015 10:56pm Aug 19, 2015 10:56pm
Quoting Xela
Clearly nobody can win 100% of the time. Beginners and inexperienced traders tend, unfortunately, to be attracted to high win-rate methods of trading, but the reality is that the percentage of winning trades doesn't in itself determine the overall outcome. There can never be certainty about the outcome of any individual trade; but collectively it's possible to have close-to-certainty that (for example) out of every 100 trades you take, you'll win 60% of them and lose the same amount of money per trade on the other 40% of them, thus making an average...
Sound advice and input. Pity the noob OP didn't even bother reading or thanking you for the time you took to write that out
  • #36
  • Aug 20, 2015 1:21am Aug 20, 2015 1:21am
Winning 100% of the time IS possible. Its just what kind of capital do you have and what kind of gains do you look for? say you have a 100k capital and started .01 lot trading a pair like AUDCAD or something with like 1.6 lot multiplier every say 30-40 pips with a multi grid hedge? I think you will win 100% of the time. But your growth will stay the same as you wont compound and you might only get $500 a month out of it.
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #37
  • Aug 20, 2015 5:04pm Aug 20, 2015 5:04pm
Quoting Rtm
Winning 100% of the time IS possible. Its just what kind of capital do you have and what kind of gains do you look for? say you have a 100k capital and started .01 lot trading a pair like AUDCAD or something with like 1.6 lot multiplier every say 30-40 pips with a multi grid hedge? I think you will win 100% of the time. But your growth will stay the same as you wont compound and you might only get $500 a month out of it.
i would rather spend 100k doing something else
  • #38
  • Last Post: Aug 20, 2015 6:47pm Aug 20, 2015 6:47pm
Quoting feline207
{quote} i would rather spend 100k doing something else
so would I, but that is besides the point
All posts are my personal opinion
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