You will never win 100% as retail trader | Forex Factory

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You will never win 100% as retail trader

  • #1
  • First Post: Jul 18, 2015 10:04pm Jul 18, 2015 10:04pm
At first english is not my mother lang.
Why my title is about winning is not 100%.
yes. you will never get winning 100%.except you have time machine.
as retail trader , you must consist with your trading system.prize action indicator news etc.
and dont forget about MM(money management) and not being greedy.
how much money i lost in this bisnis?.
i had lost money about 250.000$.and still counting.
i will never surrender,do i know my weakness? yes i know. its about MM and being greedy.
  • #2
  • Jul 19, 2015 3:11am Jul 19, 2015 3:11am
Quoting mhejek
At first english is not my mother lang. Why my title is about winning is not 100%. yes. you will never get winning 100%.except you have time machine. as retail trader , you must consist with your trading system.prize action indicator news etc. and dont forget about MM(money management) and not being greedy. how much money i lost in this bisnis?. i had lost money about 250.000$.and still counting. i will never surrender,do i know my weakness? yes i know. its about MM and being greedy.
Man im really sorry to hear that There is possibility to win 100% but at what cost and risk? You must share your experience with others for benefit. thank you for sharing words of truth!
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #3
  • Jul 19, 2015 4:09am Jul 19, 2015 4:09am
Who is the lucky broker?
  • #4
  • Jul 19, 2015 4:24am Jul 19, 2015 4:24am
Its not Greed or MM only..
You are missing a trading plan..

Trading plan is a very important thing..

It will let you stress free trading.

It will give you an edge..

There is 28 different pairs.. Fill up this questions before taking any trade.

-Why are you taking that trade ? Is there any fundamental or technical reason ?
-Is there enough volatilty to move ? Strong zone ?
-How much money are you going to risk per trade ?
-How many trades will open at the same time ?
-Will be there any weekend and overnight positions ?
-What is your trading times ?
-What are you going to do if there is a important news coming in ?
****************************************************************

If you respect this Rules any of %60 win rate system will make money for you..

It doesnt matter what your stop loss size is...
You can set 200 pips stop loss with 0.02 or you can set 100 pips stop loss with 0.04 at the end they are equal to = $$ LOSE or win

Starting with Lot normalization is a main principle in the trading..

If you have a 1000 $ account you have to calculate your Maximum risk before taking the trade.. %0.05 is safe and can give consistent growth..

0.03 lots - 5 succesful trades in a week for 30 pips.. It makes 15$ - ( %1,5) in a week. it makes %6 in a month.

And we are talking only 5 trades per week for 30 pips..

Is there better and more opportunities ? Yes..

Make your plan , Find your edge.. Be consistent

Stoploss should be there all the time !
Take it easy.
  • #5
  • Jul 19, 2015 4:50am Jul 19, 2015 4:50am
100% is impossible, but I managed to create a 90% win ratio, profitable but not as much as one would think.
I make more money on another system that is only around 70% hit rate
Bulls are stupid Animals!especially when Im short!
  • #6
  • Jul 19, 2015 4:51am Jul 19, 2015 4:51am
Quoting roughtrader
100% is impossible, but I managed to create a 90% win ratio, profitable but not as much as one would think. I make more money on another system that is only around 70% hit rate
You are good. explorer please, want to study your trades <3
  • #7
  • Jul 19, 2015 5:40am Jul 19, 2015 5:40am
Quoting roughtrader
100% is impossible, but i managed to create a 90% win ratio, profitable but not as much as one would think. I make more money on another system that is only around 70% hit rate
yeh i see it and you left your site
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #8
  • Jul 19, 2015 7:25am Jul 19, 2015 7:25am
Quoting Brandonchen
{quote} You are good. explorer please, want to study your trades <3
I like your trading philosophy, and most traders need to learn how to lose. I found it interesting when people search for trading system and holy grail, but 1 major loss will end their game. To stay profitable in this game, we need to know how to survive. Without bullets, you cant shoot your next enemy.
The only winner is the one who survive the longest...
  • #9
  • Jul 19, 2015 12:49pm Jul 19, 2015 12:49pm
Quoting kinspk
{quote} I like your trading philosophy, and most traders need to learn how to lose. I found it interesting when people search for trading system and holy grail, but 1 major loss will end their game. To stay profitable in this game, we need to know how to survive. Without bullets, you cant shoot your next enemy.
seconded Kinspk...just like life, when there is life there is hope...losing account is like losing life...
so, treat it as life...
  • #10
  • Jul 19, 2015 1:07pm Jul 19, 2015 1:07pm
This is absolutely NOT TRUE at all

read till the end. This is my experience and this is the way i trade:
1) You need to put a trading plan for the week
Put a plan see which news are coming up and which speaches to watch.
Look what happened last week for the GBP when they said time is getting so close to raise interest rate! GBPUSD up 100 pips in one hour.
I was watching that as soon as it happened.
Friday CPI and building news GREAT for usd what happened??? EURUSD DOWN GOLD DOWN
you know what. THe best thing ever to trade with strong us news is Gold. Always Always Negative relationship.
Canadians cut interest rate- overnight rate what happened??? USDCAD up to the sky
you know what! There are 16 monthly news that have high impact and they always always work one hundred percent.
I remember about a month ago existing home sales for usd came the highest since 2009. but the news made no effect on the eurusd at that moment. a friend of mind called me and said hey ibrahim! no effect! i told it will affect it. He went and bought eurusd then in just an hour eurusd went down 120 pips and down next days as well

Man watch the news watch the speaks
you need to know when to enter a trade. thats very very important.
DO NOT ever rely on indicators and robots and signals and all that bullshit
They simply never work
AGAIN watch support and resistance levels on a DAILY chart only. watch news and price action and market sentiment.
before 7 am GMT market is dead then as soon as UK session kicks in you will see the markets moving. watch it for an hour if you see price going up good just go ahead and fuckin buy. dont watch the price moving and never take action.
Look what happened friday with usd news i sold gold as soon as i saw news and took profit 5 dollars below. it went down 11 dollars
you need to have a plan.
put your emotions and feelings on the side
never put a close stop loss
put stop loss 50-60 pips away becuz this will mean for sure the price is not going your way this day
do not ever trade short timeframes like 15min and 30 min minimum is 1 hour to find a good entry point.
you know what i wil tell you this
this week we have no news about usd. EURUSD is at a very strong support
when there are no usd news you will see eurusd going HIGH for the week
You need to know when to enter a trade. THats the most important part of trading
again and again and again
put a plan put a plan put a plan
pay greeeeeat attention to news and speaks and support and resistanc areas and you will succeed.
  • #11
  • Jul 19, 2015 1:26pm Jul 19, 2015 1:26pm
Quoting kinspk
{quote} To stay profitable in this game, we need to know how to survive. Without bullets, you cant shoot your next enemy.
Words to live by. Greedy newbies never get this.
  • #12
  • Jul 19, 2015 1:44pm Jul 19, 2015 1:44pm
Quoting abulayyam
This is absolutely NOT TRUE at all read till the end. This is my experience and this is the way i trade: 1) You need to put a trading plan for the week Put a plan see which news are coming up and which speaches to watch. Look what happened last week for the GBP when they said time is getting so close to raise interest rate! GBPUSD up 100 pips in one hour. I was watching that as soon as it happened. Friday CPI and building news GREAT for usd what happened??? EURUSD DOWN GOLD DOWN you know what. THe best thing ever to trade with strong us news is...
I share your view but disagree with the part where you said it works 100%. No system or trading method(s) in currency market does. Been a news trader for a long while now and I've seen news affect currencies inversely or just for a few seconds. I can say 90% but not 100%. News trading is boring but very profitable. Requires a lot patience and discipline. You will NEVER win 100% as a retail trader
  • #13
  • Jul 19, 2015 2:14pm Jul 19, 2015 2:14pm
Impressive learning tips from@Quants, @kinspk and @abulayyam to set trading goals. I have included them in my trading journal to not to forget Again*. But you guys haven't explained about MM? daily targets; say my daily target is to achieve 70 pips daily so should i forcefully close my running trades upon 70pips or continue with the profit which is so many times in my case fall 6 o clock for RED!

*Yes! on demo again!
If you have poor psychology you will struggle
  • #14
  • Jul 19, 2015 2:20pm Jul 19, 2015 2:20pm
What you meant to say was you will never win 100% of anything ever in life.
  • #15
  • Jul 19, 2015 2:34pm Jul 19, 2015 2:34pm
I do not say i win 100% of my trades
I have a daily target. The market for ex gbpusd moves and average 120 pips in one direction and within the open and close it moves up and down at least 350 pips.
Also when you have uncertainty in a pair go find another
Did you guys even think about GBPJPY, USDJPY, EURGBP, GBPCHF??????
Did you see these pairs last week??
They were trading in one direction only without any pullbacks at all.
Why does everybody only focus on eurusd????
Guys look for everything and stop missing opportunities
  • #16
  • Jul 19, 2015 3:17pm Jul 19, 2015 3:17pm
Quoting abulayyam
This is absolutely NOT TRUE at all read till the end. This is my experience and this is the way i trade: 1) You need to put a trading plan for the week Put a plan see which news are coming up and which speaches to watch. Look what happened last week for the GBP when they said time is getting so close to raise interest rate! GBPUSD up 100 pips in one hour. I was watching that as soon as it happened. Friday CPI and building news GREAT for usd what happened??? EURUSD DOWN GOLD DOWN you know what. THe best thing ever to trade with strong us news is...

agree with the stop loss part...not too close like 15-20 pips unless it is obvious/very good high probability setup...never put stop too far apart unless u wanna see a few days in RED and then stopped out...
50-60 pips is ideal i would say..of course that depends on situation...
I use news to AVOID trade or know when to exit or put SL to breakeven but not to ENTER trade....news is never reliable to enter trade...
how do i know? got burnt several times trading shit like NFP etc...
my 2 cents
  • #17
  • Jul 19, 2015 3:52pm Jul 19, 2015 3:52pm
Quoting Quants
{quote} I would not suggest to giving fixed value on stoploss for every pair. Every pair have own movement style.. 50 pips tp for wednesday might be okay on eurusd and it can hit very quickly but what about monday there is a lot lower movement.. 20 pips stop loss might be okay for some pairs , But you cant compare eurchf with gbpnzd or gbpcad and they need some more space because they are moving more than that in no time...
I agree, the context which I am speaking is major pairs...for gbp nzd we surely need larger stop..
I do occasionally use 15-20 pips entry when i am absolutely sure about something, usually with bigger lot size(this keeps the amount I risk constant)
but all in all, what matters more is the potential TP compared to SL, if it is good enough, then it justifies entry...
  • #18
  • Jul 19, 2015 3:58pm Jul 19, 2015 3:58pm
Quoting dr.rackala
Impressive learning tips from@Quants, @kinspk and @abulayyam to set trading goals. I have included them in my trading journal to not to forget Again*. But you guys haven't explained about MM? daily targets; say my daily target is to achieve 70 pips daily so should i forcefully close my running trades upon 70pips or continue with the profit which is so many times in my case fall 6 o clock for RED! *Yes! on demo again!
Bro, your risk and money management will all depend on your strategy, and let's take it your strategy is 70 pips, but you need to know if it's possible to achieve.

Eg, you trade on hourly, will an hour move 70 pips on average? eg if you trade daily, do Monday move 70 pips on average. I personally don't fix my TP at a constant value, I let it ride till I think I am not sure if it will move further or beyond the statistical possible average move.

Eg, the average of daily doesn't represent the average of a particular day. The average pips of Monday can be very different from the average pips of Thursday. While average pips at particular hour varies too.

Eg, EU move at an average of X pips per day, i don't expect myself to profit (X+Y) pips per day. I only target around 40% to 70% of X pips, because we cant possible catch all top and bottoms all the time.

This is just a brief example without much elaboration as I do not know how you trade. When you do enough research on your favourite trading instruments, you will naturally come out with a suitable plan for it.
The only winner is the one who survive the longest...
  • #19
  • Jul 19, 2015 6:46pm Jul 19, 2015 6:46pm
Quoting kinspk
{quote} Bro, your risk and money management will all depend on your strategy, and let's take it your strategy is 70 pips, but you need to know if it's possible to achieve. Eg, you trade on hourly, will an hour move 70 pips on average? eg if you trade daily, do Monday move 70 pips on average. I personally don't fix my TP.........
Thanks again! here is my last week performance, gaining very little cuz of fixed 70 pips target! similar issue! i forcefully close my open red/green trades upon hitting +-70 pips. 1:1 RR ratio
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 222.JPG Size: 47 KB
If you have poor psychology you will struggle
  • #20
  • Jul 19, 2015 7:19pm Jul 19, 2015 7:19pm
Quoting Brandonchen
{quote} You are good. explorer please, want to study your trades <3
I dont have explorer sorry. and I dont use that system because it is a negative risk to reward. huge stop loss and small win
Bulls are stupid Animals!especially when Im short!
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