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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #52,801
  • Aug 12, 2015 8:30am Aug 12, 2015 8:30am
Quoting stt
{quote} Hi FTI, glad to see you going strong. Best wishes for your health. As i posted (last year i believe) that market structure has changed a lot - % of electronic trading by banks is very significant now and spot traders population at banks is significantly lower (options still not as much electronic). Lot of large corps are now doing most of their flow on electronic platforms. even when they do talk to sales people, sales people executes their trade on machine instead of instead of shouting across the desk to a trader for a price. so in this...
robots?
observe behavioural change.
robots are easier to read than humans, they less likely random walk.
They have flow courses. Humans are messy.

if you move mouse and robot responds, trick it. or change market access.

regards
  • #52,802
  • Aug 12, 2015 8:44am Aug 12, 2015 8:44am
Quoting TEB63
{quote} There are a lot of people who make a good living using them !! BUT```systems only give you a better win % you still need good MM but to say they don't work is wild! the problem is people don't know it only helps its not the only thing TEB
It is true that when we are using good money management skills then our trading ability will increase and that will also help us in becoming better tarders.

The management of our trades is very important for us in order to survive in the business
Trading in Forex since 8 years
  • #52,803
  • Aug 12, 2015 9:08am Aug 12, 2015 9:08am
Quoting RelaxRay
{quote} FTI thanks for always sharing your playbook, of late, I been thinking trading as somewhat like a chess game.. Move them slowly into position for our defence and victory, but prepare for them if they attack, then wait for the chance. Phil once shared a very important piece of puzzle that helped me think about the playbook and how I can cultivate it better. All he did was shared these tactical quote from AOW, "1. Sun Tzu said: The good fighters of old first put themselves beyond the possibility of defeat, and then waited for an opportunity...
hi ray, it all in AOW lesson 1 and 2. its somewhere very early in the thread.

j
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #52,804
  • Aug 12, 2015 10:31am Aug 12, 2015 10:31am
Quoting Jacque
{quote} hi ray, it all in AOW lesson 1 and 2. its somewhere very early in the thread. j
Yup, that is correct. Reason why it was much more impactful was due to a different stage in development and hence, I could appreciate and understand the meaning much better.
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #52,805
  • Edited 1:51pm Aug 12, 2015 1:08pm | Edited 1:51pm
ahhh well rested.
but i wake up asking myself a question.( in the middle of no man's time zone)

what is it that makes for the arrogance that i develop?
Is it the lion of the hill syndrome.
Or is it because this experienced trader came not understanding me.

He wasn't impolite.
He didn't even said the wrong things.
In many ways he probably can do what i do.

He just telling how the industry as a whole is doing.
Automation is becoming a reality in the business.
People prefer to search for mechanical ways replace the human, because is a real pain in the butt managing people.
No need find ways compensate for remunerations or leaves, not even need a pantry if all the work is given to machines.
Even i tried do it during my peaks.
Only i come to realisation that is not possible for machines to trade.
Machines can improve order routing, and access to the markets.
But trading, it is a human activity.
probably because the markets is a composite of human activities of buying and selling.
SO decision making. It has to be a human thing.

Same in banking. The ATM can replace some tellers. But it cannot do the job the managers do.
It takes a manager manage human customers.

Here comes a good experienced trader 23 years.
and i have audacity send him packing, with a nipple instead of exploring what he can bring to the table.
what arrogance and rigidity i begining develop.

maybe is troubling me because i felt these before.
everytime arrogance creeps up on me. Then downfall begins.

Thank GOD i am retired.

regards


Come think of it, personality clashes, is a horrible killer of capable people, in this business.
  • #52,806
  • Aug 12, 2015 2:03pm Aug 12, 2015 2:03pm
Quoting fti
ahhh well rested. but i wake up asking myself a question.( in the middle of no man's time zone) what is it that makes for the arrogance that i develop? Is it the lion of the hill syndrome. Or is it because this experienced trader came not understanding me. He wasn't impolite. He didn't even said the wrong things. In many ways he probably can do what i do. He just telling how the industry as a whole is doing. Automation is becoming a reality in the business. People prefer to search for mechanical ways replace the human, because is a real pain...
arrogance is a part of the human nature, everybody has it to some extend. but the real question is to what extend we have control over it?
"vanity is definitely my favorite sin" - a quote from the movie "devil's advocate"
As Above, So Below
  • #52,807
  • Aug 12, 2015 2:20pm Aug 12, 2015 2:20pm
Quoting tashkent
{quote} arrogance is a part of the human nature, everybody has it to some extend. but the real question is to what extend we have control over it? "vanity is definitely my favorite sin" - a quote from the movie "devil's advocate"
i want full control.
ooops does that makes me vain tyrant.

okok back to middle path. balance.

regards
  • #52,808
  • Aug 12, 2015 2:36pm Aug 12, 2015 2:36pm
Inserted Video
As Above, So Below
  • #52,809
  • Aug 12, 2015 3:42pm Aug 12, 2015 3:42pm
Even i tried do it during my peaks. Only i come to realisation that is not possible for machines to trade. Machines can improve order routing, and access to the markets. But trading, it is a human activity. probably because the markets is a composite of human activities of buying and selling. SO decision making. It has to be a human thing.

Goldmann definitely does not agree with you sir....

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-0...hft-firm-world
  • #52,810
  • Aug 12, 2015 3:44pm Aug 12, 2015 3:44pm
Quoting tashkent
{quote} arrogance is a part of the human nature, everybody has it to some extend. but the real question is to what extend we have control over it? "vanity is definitely my favorite sin" - a quote from the movie "devil's advocate"
Concious people have total control of their actions and the things they say....unconciusness is just an excuse.....
Before you cross the avenue, you just need to have your eyes wide open....life is for the living....walking asleep is dangerous....
  • #52,811
  • Aug 12, 2015 5:33pm Aug 12, 2015 5:33pm
Quoting cuchuflito
Even i tried do it during my peaks. Only i come to realisation that is not possible for machines to trade. Machines can improve order routing, and access to the markets. But trading, it is a human activity. probably because the markets is a composite of human activities of buying and selling. SO decision making. It has to be a human thing. Goldmann definitely does not agree with you sir.... http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-0...hft-firm-world
oh ok.
I have nothing to do with the broker anyways. i am dealer. now retarded. the longans this year very nice.

regards
  • #52,812
  • Edited 6:38am Aug 13, 2015 2:15am | Edited 6:38am
Quoting fti
ahhh well rested. but i wake up asking myself a question.( in the middle of no man's time zone) what is it that makes for the arrogance that i develop?
My feeling... sorry if I intrude.... it is easy to lose the essence of yourself if you over analyse yourself. Not happy with sth you did. think about it fix it and then move on or forget it (I did not think badly of it but not addressed to me) .......... too much analysis stifles individual charm (I know I tend to do this)...... we are not robots after all.

Good debate is more than healthy too.......too many peeps are in the "I am offended" brigade (get over it/yourselves peeps).....computers can do a great deal more except it is not they that are doing it... it is we that create them.... and thereby is the problem - us.


Regards

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #52,813
  • Aug 13, 2015 2:19am Aug 13, 2015 2:19am
Quoting cuchuflito
{quote} Concious people have total control of their actions and the things they say....unconciusness is just an excuse..... Before you cross the avenue, you just need to have your eyes wide open....life is for the living....walking asleep is dangerous....

Sorry peeps are always fighting to master selves... it is the human condition.... our internals have to battle often....... part of fight or flight response makes us so...... so having total control is not sth too easy at times..... there is a battle going on... not a fault ... just way we were made.


Regards

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #52,814
  • Aug 14, 2015 3:02am Aug 14, 2015 3:02am
hahahahahahahahasgagagagagagahahaha
we humans.
  • #52,815
  • Aug 14, 2015 3:02am Aug 14, 2015 3:02am
Not sure if I saw this right but today - they absorbed the orders and I think shaded the longs to take out the ducks (make more money for them) then slam my way............not sure if I understood it right on eurusd........ but I was with 'em so good for me.

Busy... thanks FTI for your "summary".... need more work on this as games can be everywhere and anywhere......did not think too much just went with 'em... also in before em.

Regards
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #52,816
  • Edited 3:51am Aug 14, 2015 3:03am | Edited 3:51am
EMOTIONS.
Inserted Video


Inserted Video


yayaya hahahahaha human emotions. hahahahahahahahahahaha
You wanna trade with that?

these days, peeps write with emotions, the facts not matters?

regards
  • #52,817
  • Aug 14, 2015 5:00am Aug 14, 2015 5:00am
Quoting fti
EMOTIONS. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lU1sC_xbGXI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mm_niiQfeWc yayaya hahahahaha human emotions. hahahahahahahahahahaha You wanna trade with that? these days, peeps write with emotions, the facts not matters? regards



Emotions in play == no trading for me

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #52,818
  • Edited 6:05am Aug 14, 2015 5:43am | Edited 6:05am
Naughty naughty games.... tried to send us all down wrong road....big wide gate................very big.......think I can see play with shades but not get it quite yet... they are absorbing orders and shading.......still learning lots......... lots to learn on this journey.... need gain more confidence.......they had to break down the wall with the 1st impulse then nice PB.... played with shades here I think..... needs more study......
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #52,819
  • Aug 14, 2015 6:15am Aug 14, 2015 6:15am
Quoting alexandria
Naughty naughty games.... tried to send us all down wrong road....big wide gate................very big.......think I can see play with shades but not get it quite yet... they are absorbing orders and shading.......still learning lots......... lots to learn on this journey.... need gain more confidence.......they had to break down the wall with the 1st impulse then nice PB.... played with shades here I think..... needs more study......
Played with shades?

Can you explain your meaning?
  • #52,820
  • Edited 9:39am Aug 14, 2015 6:46am | Edited 9:39am
Quoting Talzus
{quote} Played with shades? Can you explain your meaning?
Not really as I am not at all sure myself.... just trying to learn about it in the market........FTI talked about it so it set me off investigating.......a few posts ago he gave me nice summary of how he traded () takes 20/30 years to learn this summary.

But will give it a go......but not in a clever way.... just as I felt it today. But I could be talking nonsense who knows. Everything in the market tells us more than I ever knew and even then we can always be wrong today as it can do what it wants.

I watched the buy/sell price & what price was actually doing (FTI "meanderings" - but all happened so fast so my brain seemed to cope with it better than me) -------- what you see on price are buy/sell prices your broker wants you to see right...... so they can play with the real price and present it to you as they want for whatever reason......... I only just understood this properly a few days ago......... go to TAF lounge and there is a good explanation somewhere from DutchAngel (think). They get prices from a few banks for example then quote different ones to us and they can bias the buy or sell as they wish.

I was in short (although my longer term bias was long (D1/h1) with ???)... then we hit some orders and I watched the prices (buy/sell) during small sideways PB long before last push down and my buy price was jumping (not the sell) to get out the ducks in the PB well that is what happened on my broker - they stopped moving the sell price then buy price stayed high and slam momentum went short. It was all so fast.

Then we had nice move up and abc type spring correction (well that is how I see it - the abc down was weaker than prior up waves ) - with a nice trap - so they absorbed the orders then took out the ducks and again I could see at my broker they shaded shorts (played with the price if I wanted to short it so they made more money on shorts) then long we went.... news helped em too.

I could be totally wrong here but it is how it seemed to work on my chart today. But I need to watch this more as they play lots of games to match up orders..... still trying to learn... not really games they just need to make a buck and manage their orders/risk. Not sure if I can use this info in PBs or not to help determine what is going on......

TBH all happened so fast so my mind could be internalising sth in a different way..... this is just how it felt at the time..... hope that explained it.... I know we can check the spread prices on forexfactory too.

True answer is go with flow and never be rigid... long term trend bias is best.
check out the terrain - follow never lead
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