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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #52,781
  • Aug 11, 2015 9:20pm Aug 11, 2015 9:20pm
Quoting Tom81
fti it seems you have to much time in your hands, maybe you should use it to study technical analysis I can tell you from my 23 year experience as a trader, and my bank account numbers, it works! Combined with proper and strict MM of course. It's all about risk-reward ratio on system win expectancy. I can be wrong 72% of the time and still make money. So if technical analysis helps me being right at least 28 % of the time (it does 41 % actually), I can make a killing. Knowledge about Japanese candlesticks combined with technical and fundamental...
Dear Tom,
It also seems that you have not understood any of FTI's intention here. I am unsure how much of the thread have you read or understood to make such a sweeping statement like that. I am also very puzzled as to why I bother hitting a reply to a comment like yours, but if you dont mind, please move along and take your two cents with you

Rgds
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #52,782
  • Edited 10:56pm Aug 11, 2015 9:59pm | Edited 10:56pm
Quoting Tom81
fti it seems you have to much time in your hands, maybe you should use it to study technical analysis I can tell you from my 23 year experience as a trader, and my bank account numbers, it works! Combined with proper and strict MM of course. It's all about risk-reward ratio on system win expectancy. I can be wrong 72% of the time and still make money. So if technical analysis helps me being right at least 28 % of the time (it does 41 % actually), I can make a killing. Knowledge about Japanese candlesticks combined with technical and fundamental...
Thank you for your advicement. Oh learn TA. OK.
but the young man trained primary dealers on that from the late 1970s in 3 of the 5 world's top market making interbank then. sorry.
Maybe if you studied prings, natenberg and stigum books you still not caught up to his research and studies.
also you may catch up with his experience in about 16 years time if you learn market making and chair exchanges BO director for a few years.
you think he will listen to you?
maybe you climbed up the wrong tree?

Ya , too much time. Retirement is a bitch. You retiring anytime yet?
Maybe learning suck eggs, maybe is the answer?
difficult, different folks different strokes.
how many ways is there suck eggs please? granny wants to know? 23?ok catch up with you in the markets, but try not stand facing my position. dangerousI seldom know if i coming or going.

Trade carefully.

regards

PS:By the way Risk reward ratio is a fairy tale.
Is for your senior managers try to gauge if you performance is dunce or you smart alec. My best performace annual was about 400%ROI only. i like say big numbers but really only made 4x cap.
Good advicement deserves reward. Here's a tip.
don't mess with Old hot rods. Although they may have lost the shine, but once upon a time , was hot.

Anyway , i think was not all skill. Market gives, who am i to refuse?
There suckers born every day.
here take 1.
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  • #52,783
  • Aug 11, 2015 10:56pm Aug 11, 2015 10:56pm
Quoting fti
{quote} Thank you for your advicement. Oh learn TA. OK. but the young man trained primary dealers on that from the late 1970s in 3 of the 5 world's top market making interbank then. sorry. Maybe if you studied prings, natenberg and stigum books you still not caught up to his research and studies. also you may catch up with his experience in about 16 years time if you learn market making and chair exchanges BO director for a few years. you think he will listen to you? maybe you climbed up the wrong tree? Ya , too much time. Retirement is a bitch....

wah damn the dealer arrogance,
  • #52,784
  • Aug 11, 2015 11:04pm Aug 11, 2015 11:04pm
Quoting fti
{quote} wah damn the dealer arrogance,
Hah, shows you still got the fire to trade successfully. As important as strong mental aptitude and a calm mind is, without that fire a general won't last long in the battlefield.
  • #52,785
  • Edited 11:24pm Aug 11, 2015 11:08pm | Edited 11:24pm
Quoting FXMasterSK
{quote} Hah, shows you still got the fire to trade successfully. As important as strong mental aptitude and a calm mind is, without that fire a general won't last long in the battlefield.
i leave some stuff behind only, because i hate watch peeps get burnt from my engineering.
is hand book how to defeat my monsters i manufactured for the lumps. the puppet masters can keep the propaganda systems copyrights, i no need for it already. Any way they paid arm and leg for it.

one day someone will up/better me. we'll see.


regards
  • #52,786
  • Edited Aug 12, 2015 1:05am Aug 11, 2015 11:25pm | Edited Aug 12, 2015 1:05am
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is ok fly you old tech, your choice.

Inserted Video


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one day someone will up/better me. we'll see.

like this utube.com/watch?v=QvdOL7058kA already gave uthe tools find it.​my thousand apologies for my old dog arrogance.
we are only as good as our LAST battle.

regards
  • #52,787
  • Edited 6:13am Aug 12, 2015 1:29am | Edited 6:13am
Quoting fti
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z8Mqw0b9ADs is ok fly you old tech, your choice. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xh49qn2cQNU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hO5mZxaiyUQ one day someone will up/better me. we'll see. like this utube.com/watch?v=QvdOL7058kA already gave uthe tools find it.​my thousand apologies for my old dog arrogance. we are only as good as our LAST battle. regards
funny thoughts.
亂棍打死師父

regards
  • #52,788
  • Aug 12, 2015 2:48am Aug 12, 2015 2:48am
Remember, climb the mountain not to be seen, but to see the world.
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  • #52,789
  • Aug 12, 2015 2:52am Aug 12, 2015 2:52am
Inserted Video


.... climbing...
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #52,790
  • Edited 3:19am Aug 12, 2015 3:07am | Edited 3:19am
Quoting alexandria
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NG2zyeVRcbs .... climbing...
no worries.
The fun is never the destination, but the journey.

At the end of the journey, we all get to the same place.
from dust we came, to dust we return.
Praying we not dang dirt.

Then God decides.

For now, have a wonderful journey.
How shameful it would be to go home and God ask, i gave you that wonderful time.
Did you enjoyed yourself?
And we cannot answer.


regards
  • #52,791
  • Aug 12, 2015 3:22am Aug 12, 2015 3:22am
Quoting fti
Remember, climb the mountain not to be seen, but to see the world. {image}

oh... I like this thought....just getting it now (I think)

Think I am a bit slow.... need to think about things too much sometimes...
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #52,792
  • Aug 12, 2015 3:29am Aug 12, 2015 3:29am
Been pondering... how do I know when the push is a game they are playing.... maybe with me... and when it is real......... guess need more clues/skills... what unfolds is their answer.... this is especially so in distribution/accumulation
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #52,793
  • Aug 12, 2015 3:39am Aug 12, 2015 3:39am
Quoting fti
{quote} no worries. The fun is never the destination, but the journey. At the end of the journey, we all get to the same place. from dust we came, to dust we return. Praying we not dang dirt. Then God decides. For now, have a wonderful journey. How shameful it would be to go home and God ask, i gave you that wonderful time. Did you enjoyed yourself? And we cannot answer. regards

... the struggle is fun too..well sometimes...........

......been climbing with the bulls.......... always another mountain..
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #52,794
  • Aug 12, 2015 5:14am Aug 12, 2015 5:14am
Quoting alexandria
Been pondering... how do I know when the push is a game they are playing.... maybe with me... and when it is real......... guess need more clues/skills... what unfolds is their answer.... this is especially so in distribution/accumulation

Hi Alex

Time of day…..risk events…..momentum…..law of motion……action-reaction.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #52,795
  • Aug 12, 2015 5:16am Aug 12, 2015 5:16am
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi Alex Time of day..risk events..momentum..law of motionaction-reaction. regards Phil.
ooohhh... nice summary....

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #52,796
  • Edited 7:02am Aug 12, 2015 6:48am | Edited 7:02am
Quoting alexandria
Been pondering... how do I know when the push is a game they are playing.... maybe with me... and when it is real......... guess need more clues/skills... what unfolds is their answer.... this is especially so in distribution/accumulation
had to rest, low energy human now.
ok battry charged, but bad energy output.

In room you see large customer book flows.
But you not have the privilege as a trader.
So you not sure, so you watch the pulsing and price and spread reactions.
slowly build your positions. according to you acceptable book risk.
Once you get into a trend ride, you don't think anymore.only position responses.
otherwise you should mostly be in bargaining stance.

You keep looking at the price shades, just as spectator and alos look at the price meanders to try detect the pattern thats unfolding.
Always leave a 1 average true range sudden reversal space, in case the dealers have to deal with counter measure stampedes.

Don't think markets trying deceive you, watch price pumps until you can feel her tick toks and you begining to get a familiarity of her behaviours.
anytime feels uncomfortable use rule , trick me once , shame on you, trick me twice shame on me, trick me trice goodbye.
You no need to know if is distribution or accumulation. while is happening.
They mostly look same except for way the spread shades.
but if they catch trend mode.... you check #1 that you positions not peeing into the wind.
#2 find the base pattern cause. and you build positions for the fight.
Yu never rush to get it all into zone at once. You build it during the momentum pauses depending on the allowances of the unfolding pattern.
do not expect strong swing back. But they do come , and you need build the core base using those counter swings develop base cost of position.

mostly be unopinioned when approaching markets, unless have clear fundementals like figs or impacting reports that may lead. Otherwise allow mind relax watch and respond build. If mind is uneased pull the plug as you deem fit. But until in trend mode , neautrality is best. Listen to news, Others opinions every one has one and it stinks.

Learn to trade in relaxed control manner. Mostly i am emotionles when i reponding to markets. If i detect i getting emotional, then i check if is in trend lead otherwise then is just me not stable and should be grounded until i cool off. do somethings mostly listens music or unmeaningful stuff, until i feel unexcited and relaxed , then i start again.

you can make mistakes reading the pulses, sometimes timing is joke. bad hair day. But you cannot keep getting jabbed without getting your attention to details.



regards
  • #52,797
  • Aug 12, 2015 7:15am Aug 12, 2015 7:15am
Quoting fti
{quote} had to rest, low energy human now. ok battry charged, but bad energy output.
Thank you for taking trouble to answer...... especially when so tired...........glad you had good rest.....

I will need to think about your answer for some time.... think it describes some of what I do.... but need to read it through properly.... still in head space of having been in good battles today (well enemy was giving game away a lot...but I know they clever so........) ..... trading really affects my head more than any work I can think of so really appreciate your comments on your own emotions. Just wanted to say thank you tho'.


PS Liked porcelain song very much today........

Inserted Video
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #52,798
  • Aug 12, 2015 7:24am Aug 12, 2015 7:24am
Quoting fti
{quote} had to rest, low energy human now. ok battry charged, but bad energy output. In room you see large customer book flows. But you not have the privilege as a trader. So you not sure, so you watch the pulsing and price and spread reactions. slowly build your positions. according to you acceptable book risk. Once you get into a trend ride, you don't think anymore.only position responses. otherwise you should mostly be in bargaining stance. You keep looking at the price shades, just as spectator and alos look at the price meanders to try...
FTI thanks for always sharing your playbook, of late, I been thinking trading as somewhat like a chess game.. Move them slowly into position for our defence and victory, but prepare for them if they attack, then wait for the chance.
Phil once shared a very important piece of puzzle that helped me think about the playbook and how I can cultivate it better.
All he did was shared these tactical quote from AOW,
"1. Sun Tzu said: The good fighters of old first put themselves beyond the possibility of defeat, and then waited for an opportunity of defeating the enemy.

2. To secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself.

3. Thus the good fighter is able to secure himself against defeat, but cannot make certain of defeating the enemy.

4. Hence the saying: One may know how to conquer without being able to do it.
"

Rgds,
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #52,799
  • Edited 7:57am Aug 12, 2015 7:42am | Edited 7:57am
Quoting fti
{quote} .... You keep looking at the price shades.....
I am not sure about "shading"....... I am not watching that other than on my own chart........and they could be shading for any games they want I guess..... so not understand how to use price spreads... need to study it in market....did not realise so very useful

I like rule so I will borrow it:

  1. trick me once shame on you
  2. trick me twice shame on me
  3. trick me thrice goodbye


Alex

check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #52,800
  • Aug 12, 2015 8:09am Aug 12, 2015 8:09am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} I am not sure about "shading"....... I am not watching that other than on my own chart........and they could be shading for any games they want I guess..... so not understand how to use price spreads... need to study it in market....did not realise so very useful I like rule so I will borrow it: trick me once shame on you trick me twice shame on me trick me thrice goodbye Alex
Hi FTI, glad to see you going strong. Best wishes for your health. As i posted (last year i believe) that market structure has changed a lot - % of electronic trading by banks is very significant now and spot traders population at banks is significantly lower (options still not as much electronic). Lot of large corps are now doing most of their flow on electronic platforms. even when they do talk to sales people, sales people executes their trade on machine instead of instead of shouting across the desk to a trader for a price.

so in this environment, the shading (i think by shading you mean how a dealers price is skewed to offset his risk) is mostly done by algos which are quite more complicated and also have some random element to it. Also as a trader receiving only one price feed, how can you detect shading effectively (for dealers they can see EBS / Reuters mids so it may be possible but for retail trader, he doesnt have that info)? Also algos are watching all ECNs (EBS, reuters, currenex, hotspot etc) and operating at millisecond level to detech shading/skews and usually react very quickly to make it go away.

Can you please help me understand how to watch for shading as a non-bank dealer. Thanks so much for all you inputs here.

Regards
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