Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 294 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #5,861
  • Aug 6, 2015 4:55pm Aug 6, 2015 4:55pm
Hey Alfonso. I hope you don't mind but here is what I think currently of the USD/JPY. I hope its not a problem that this is current. I just wanted to analyze something that I could not know the answer too. Most all marks are on the charts below. I have to say that I do have problems with telling CP and peaks apart. This also includes supply/demand in control. How did I do? I do realize that on the charts below there are some zones that I missed. I did not mark ones that would be after a trend line break as they would not be valid. After a trend line breaks price will fall to the nearest zone nested within a higher time frame.

Thanks,
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  • #5,862
  • Aug 8, 2015 10:56am Aug 8, 2015 10:56am
Quoting DoHung
Hello, I just completed an updated verion the Supply & Demand tools.
excellent thank you very much
Scan all 28 Forex pairs with ONE chart... Currency Strength28 Indicators
  • #5,863
  • Aug 8, 2015 11:10am Aug 8, 2015 11:10am
Quoting Bernhard
{quote} excellent thank you very much
I am not clear about the difference of this templates
(if Alfonso permit to discuss this in his thread?)
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Scan all 28 Forex pairs with ONE chart... Currency Strength28 Indicators
  • #5,864
  • Aug 9, 2015 5:39am Aug 9, 2015 5:39am
Hi All,

I have this chart for GBPNZD. Overall HTF is up trend but weekly seem to be Sz in control. Daily TF formed a double top and now fall on the 1st grey zone. Zooming into H4 TF to have a closer look and trying to look for a zone for entry. I would take confirmation approach using H4 TF, what do you all think?

Thanks for comments
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  • #5,865
  • Aug 9, 2015 9:46am Aug 9, 2015 9:46am
Quoting yyc196
Hi All, I have this chart for GBPNZD. Overall HTF is up trend but weekly seem to be Sz in control. Daily TF formed a double top and now fall on the 1st grey zone. Zooming into H4 TF to have a closer look and trying to look for a zone for entry. I would take confirmation approach using H4 TF, what do you all think? Thanks for comments
Hello yyc. I hope you don't mind me commenting on your post. Take everything I say with a grain of salt as I am just learning myself. I think your charts look pretty good. I only added one trend line you missed below. I think your long entry is good as you are low on the curve. Just note that my yellow trend line marks an uptrend break, so longs should not be taken until price reaches a HTF level.
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  • #5,866
  • Aug 10, 2015 4:39am Aug 10, 2015 4:39am
Quoting yyc196
Hi All, I have this chart for GBPNZD. Overall HTF is up trend but weekly seem to be Sz in control. Daily TF formed a double top and now fall on the 1st grey zone. Zooming into H4 TF to have a closer look and trying to look for a zone for entry. I would take confirmation approach using H4 TF, what do you all think? Thanks for comments {image}
I have exactly the same analysis, the only difference is I would already be LONG here (without confirmation) if I had no open orders at other pairs. Sometimes opportunities are missed to manage market exposure risk
Trade what you see..
  • #5,867
  • Aug 10, 2015 9:20am Aug 10, 2015 9:20am
Hi All,

EURCHF mkt had broken the weekly zone heading up. Looking for trade in the daily TF.
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  • #5,868
  • Aug 10, 2015 12:40pm Aug 10, 2015 12:40pm
Quoting Stockguy
Hey Alfonso. I hope you don't mind but here is what I think currently of the USD/JPY. I hope its not a problem that this is current. I just wanted to analyze something that I could not know the answer too. Most all marks are on the charts below. I have to say that I do have problems with telling CP and peaks apart. This also includes supply/demand in control. How did I do? I do realize that on the charts below there are some zones that I missed. I did not mark ones that would be after a trend line break as they would not be valid. After a trend...
Hey there my friend,

A couple of comments on your USD/JPY analysis...

There are valleys and not CPs on your MN chart. Price dropped, based and rallied again.

On the WK chart, there is more price action to the left, but your chart does not display it.

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On the D1 your analysis looks correct to me. Upper D1 supply zone is also tested so the removal of it is expected since we are in a bigger picture uptrend.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,869
  • Aug 10, 2015 12:42pm Aug 10, 2015 12:42pm
Quoting yyc196
Hi All, I have this chart for GBPNZD. Overall HTF is up trend but weekly seem to be Sz in control. Daily TF formed a double top and now fall on the 1st grey zone. Zooming into H4 TF to have a closer look and trying to look for a zone for entry. I would take confirmation approach using H4 TF, what do you all think? Thanks for comments {image}
Thanks for sharing your GBP/NZD analysis with us, I have nothing to say about it Great job my friend! Last ascending D1 trendline missing only, awesome!
Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,870
  • Aug 10, 2015 2:48pm Aug 10, 2015 2:48pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Hey there my friend, A couple of comments on your USD/JPY analysis... There are valleys and not CPs on your MN chart. Price dropped, based and rallied again. On the WK chart, there is more price action to the left, but your chart does not display it. On the D1 your analysis looks correct to me. Upper D1 supply zone is also tested so the removal of it is expected since we are in a bigger picture uptrend. Cheers, Alfonso
Hey Alfonso. I sincerely appreciate you taking the time to respond. From what I gather I did not do a pretty bad job then?? Just a few little tweaks that I missed. Here is a weekly chart with more price action from the left that you said was missing. I would expect price to go up to that level from here on the weekly. I am ecstatic that you liked the daily chart as well. So really the core strategy involves:
A. To find trend draw a trend line from the last two valleys or peaks. Or the last three CP patterns. This is your trend and current direction. You do this on all three time frames. This will give you one of your supply/demand zones depending on direction. Then you draw a trend line that broke from the opposite direction. This gives you your opposing supply or demand. This will also give you your curve on your highest time frame. Once a trend breaks it should go to the next highest time frame level.
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  • #5,871
  • Aug 10, 2015 3:10pm Aug 10, 2015 3:10pm
Hey Alfonso. Marks are on the chart.
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  • #5,872
  • Aug 13, 2015 9:46am Aug 13, 2015 9:46am
Quoting yyc196
Hi All, I have this chart for GBPNZD. Overall HTF is up trend but weekly seem to be Sz in control. Daily TF formed a double top and now fall on the 1st grey zone. Zooming into H4 TF to have a closer look and trying to look for a zone for entry. I would take confirmation approach using H4 TF, what do you all think? Thanks for comments {image}

It works !!!! My CFM works !!!
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  • #5,873
  • Aug 13, 2015 1:27pm Aug 13, 2015 1:27pm
Alfonso,
Hello, would you be able to clarify one point perhaps? When analyzing obvious peaks and valleys and the 2nd leg fails to make a HH or LL than the 1st leg but it's a clear peak or valley are you allowed to still use the peak or valley to connect a trendline? Many thanks!!!!
  • #5,874
  • Aug 13, 2015 8:15pm Aug 13, 2015 8:15pm
Quoting yyc196
{quote} It works !!!! My CFM works !!! {image}
Thats awesome YYC! I am glad it worked out for you. Was your sole basis for going long here the nested zone when price returned there? I see that your entry was at a nice daily area of supply.
  • #5,875
  • Aug 13, 2015 8:17pm Aug 13, 2015 8:17pm
Quoting mrodrigues
Alfonso, Hello, would you be able to clarify one point perhaps? When analyzing obvious peaks and valleys and the 2nd leg fails to make a HH or LL than the 1st leg but it's a clear peak or valley are you allowed to still use the peak or valley to connect a trendline? Many thanks!!!!
Please accept my apologies if you or Alfonso mind me answering this. I watched one of his videos were he very specifically stated that the second leg needs to be higher than the first. If it does not I believe this makes it just a re-test of the same level.
  • #5,876
  • Aug 13, 2015 9:44pm Aug 13, 2015 9:44pm
Hey Alfonso. I also have a question about identifying peaks and valleys. You have stated that identifying peaks and valleys is more of an art than science. But, have you ever found a way to add a set of rules around identifying peaks and valleys? For example, we could use swings above/below the 20 or 50 MA. This would take out 100% of subjectiveness. Are you aware of anyone trying this?
Thanks!
  • #5,877
  • Edited Aug 14, 2015 12:26am Aug 13, 2015 10:25pm | Edited Aug 14, 2015 12:26am
Quoting Stockguy
{quote} Thats awesome YYC! I am glad it worked out for you. Was your sole basis for going long here the nested zone when price returned there? I see that your entry was at a nice daily area of supply.
Hi Stockguy, thks............................Hi All n Alfonso, again thks a lot for your explanation n sharing.Yyc
  • #5,878
  • Aug 14, 2015 7:35am Aug 14, 2015 7:35am
Quoting mrodrigues
Alfonso, Hello, would you be able to clarify one point perhaps? When analyzing obvious peaks and valleys and the 2nd leg fails to make a HH or LL than the 1st leg but it's a clear peak or valley are you allowed to still use the peak or valley to connect a trendline? Many thanks!!!!
Yes my friend, we just need 2 obvious valleys or peaks making higher highs or lower lows in order to connect a valid trendline. If price is trending in the direction of the trendline and new demand/supply zones are formed, you will most likely have new levels to trade.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,879
  • Aug 14, 2015 7:48am Aug 14, 2015 7:48am
Quoting Stockguy
Hey Alfonso. I also have a question about identifying peaks and valleys. You have stated that identifying peaks and valleys is more of an art than science. But, have you ever found a way to add a set of rules around identifying peaks and valleys? For example, we could use swings above/below the 20 or 50 MA. This would take out 100% of subjectiveness. Are you aware of anyone trying this? Thanks!
Never tried anything like that, that would be relying on lagging indicators to assess what a valley and/or peak are. The use of indicators is not needed to assess it, there are strict rules as to how to draw trendlines, detect valleys/peaks, no need to add anything extra. If you add those EMAs and gives you more confidence, then go ahead. If you test that over time and see that valleys/peaks are clearly identified, and you want to share your findings with us, great But you need to test it thoroughly with hundreds of samples over time.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,880
  • Aug 14, 2015 8:16am Aug 14, 2015 8:16am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Never tried anything like that, that would be relying on lagging indicators to assess what a valley and/or peak are. The use of indicators is not needed to assess it, there are strict rules as to how to draw trendlines, detect valleys/peaks, no need to add anything extra. If you add those EMAs and gives you more confidence, then go ahead. If you test that over time and see that valleys/peaks are clearly identified, and you want to share your findings with us, great But you need to test it thoroughly with hundreds of samples over time....
Thanks for the reply again Alfonso. I must have not come across the rules for identifying peaks/valleys. Are the rules in the free thread? Or is it on the private site? The hardest thing I am finding right now is properly identifying these peaks/valleys.
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