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Flag trading the trend

  • #7,621
  • Aug 13, 2015 7:58am Aug 13, 2015 7:58am
Quoting Divergence
{quote}explain what the major flaw is
the graph you are using is a line chart, presumable end of bar line chart.
so when you backtest and you take a trade in backtest, lets say on a break, what you are doing is filtering the signal on bars which end with the break.
the in live trading you will trade even if it is not a end of bar, and it might revers. and in that case you wont see a trade on the back test.

given that. you put a bias on your trades which will increase the % success of your trade
  • #7,622
  • Aug 13, 2015 8:05am Aug 13, 2015 8:05am
Quoting mb206
{quote} the graph you are using is a line chart, presumable end of bar line chart. so when you backtest and you take a trade in backtest, lets say on a break, what you are doing is filtering the signal on bars which end with the break. the in live trading you will trade even if it is not a end of bar, and it might revers. and in that case you wont see a trade on the back test. given that. you put a bias on your trades which will increase the % success of your trade
this is not true. we are using a 18 tick range bar line chart so we know when bar ends first then find entry
  • #7,623
  • Aug 13, 2015 8:10am Aug 13, 2015 8:10am
2b long at 42.91 triggered, are you waiting for a 123 Harold? I've not taken it yet.
  • #7,624
  • Aug 13, 2015 8:35am Aug 13, 2015 8:35am
lost 15 on 91 long recouped it at 75 short
  • #7,625
  • Aug 13, 2015 8:40am Aug 13, 2015 8:40am
91 long loss grabbed it back with 75 short win
Become the casino
  • #7,626
  • Aug 13, 2015 8:40am Aug 13, 2015 8:40am
Quoting Divergence
lost 15 on 91 long recouped it at 75 short
good wiork
Become the casino
  • #7,627
  • Aug 13, 2015 8:40am Aug 13, 2015 8:40am
we are getting near the low back in march of 42.41 hope to find reversal there
  • #7,628
  • Aug 13, 2015 8:41am Aug 13, 2015 8:41am
where did you pul sl for 75 short?
Become the casino
  • #7,629
  • Aug 13, 2015 8:50am Aug 13, 2015 8:50am
Erasmus 93 I am thinking about the 75 area again as support turning into resistance
  • #7,630
  • Aug 13, 2015 9:00am Aug 13, 2015 9:00am
price jumpy down here
Become the casino
  • #7,631
  • Aug 13, 2015 9:02am Aug 13, 2015 9:02am
wow took out march low now we are playing with 6 yr lows
  • #7,632
  • Aug 13, 2015 9:12am Aug 13, 2015 9:12am
Yes, not much reason to look to the longside at the moment, my monthly data only goes back to 2002 and we're in unchartered territory so gawd knows when it's going to stop.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,633
  • Aug 13, 2015 9:16am Aug 13, 2015 9:16am
Quoting mb206
Guys, Has any of you made consistent money with with method - close to what the backtest suggest ? If not I think there is a major flaw with the way you backtest - specially with the chart type I like the method, I think it can make money and I am here to help the group hopefully
Hey, mb.... do bear in mind that most on FF have never made any money with any method here, there or anywhere... & this is the internet, so you never know who is telling the truth. That said, I have traded more than one variation of Harold's trading methods with great profitability over quite some years (I have known H since 2007) , usually modified to my own position sizing and trade management methodology. I think I posted trades with a 10 lot as far back as 2008/9 (I'm less kamikaze these days...).

The key word is consistency - I start every year with the goal of not having a losing week, but I have never succeeded, always because of my own errors.

Be skeptical, don't believe a word anyone says (including me) and looking forward to your contributions.
  • #7,634
  • Aug 13, 2015 9:19am Aug 13, 2015 9:19am
if we get a 2 b I will wait to see if 123 follows these are historic levels lots of hesitation trying not to deviate from trade setups ups but market skittish and so am i
  • #7,635
  • Aug 13, 2015 9:22am Aug 13, 2015 9:22am
Quoting jtrade
{quote} Hey, mb.... do bear in mind that most on FF have never made any money with any method here, there or anywhere... & this is the internet, so you never know who is telling the truth. That said, I have traded more than one variation of Harold's trading methods with great profitability over quite some years (I have known H since 2007) , usually modified to my own position sizing and trade management methodology. I think I posted trades with a 10 lot as far back as 2008/9 (I'm less kamikaze these days...). The key word is consistency - I start...
has it been that long jt now I am feeling old thanks a lot
  • #7,636
  • Aug 13, 2015 9:49am Aug 13, 2015 9:49am
is the 29 long legit?
Become the casino
  • #7,637
  • Aug 13, 2015 9:51am Aug 13, 2015 9:51am
It has the feel of trying to catch a falling knife about it.
  • #7,638
  • Aug 13, 2015 9:52am Aug 13, 2015 9:52am
Quoting erasmus66
is the 29 long legit?
were are trickling right now I wont take that at this stage. I know its against rules and rules must be obeyed but its almost 11 am and we are not really moving
  • #7,639
  • Aug 13, 2015 9:59am Aug 13, 2015 9:59am
Quoting Divergence
{quote}were are trickling right now I wont take that at this stage. I know its against rules and rules must be obeyed but its almost 11 am and we are not really moving
cheers Harold
Become the casino
  • #7,640
  • Aug 13, 2015 10:02am Aug 13, 2015 10:02am
is it bottoming out?
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