{quote} Still green pips my friend!
Low Risk Low Stress High Reward High Probability Trades
Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade
- #14,281
- Aug 6, 2015 3:09am Aug 6, 2015 3:09am
- Joined Jul 2010 | Status: Great hopes make great men | 2,043 Posts
- #14,282
- Aug 6, 2015 10:36am Aug 6, 2015 10:36am
- | Joined Dec 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,118 Posts
I don't about everybody else but I've had a very boring morning. No trades on or taken. So, I thought I would post what my chart looks like and what I'm looking for.
I'm expecting Price to Pullback to the RN 1.09 and push to test 1.0930-35 but the more that price consolidates at its current level, I'm thinking, if price does pullback, a push higher is unlikely...
If price decides to break higher without a PB then I'll be looking to short at the 1.0930-35 level. Right Now I'm expecting the PB though.
I'm expecting Price to Pullback to the RN 1.09 and push to test 1.0930-35 but the more that price consolidates at its current level, I'm thinking, if price does pullback, a push higher is unlikely...
If price decides to break higher without a PB then I'll be looking to short at the 1.0930-35 level. Right Now I'm expecting the PB though.
- #14,283
- Aug 6, 2015 10:43am Aug 6, 2015 10:43am
- Joined Nov 2014 | Status: Trader | 1,300 Posts
{quote} Thanks for your response. Great insight. For the most part my method is still adapting. I got a solid base for my method thanks to Mr. Pip and others on this forum. I just cant break out into positive expectancy. Over the long term, my account has stopped from leaking to breaking even. So Im experimenting ways to fix my errors. I've never used tick charts. Maybe I should try playing with it in demo for awhile. I do use bar by bar analysis for entry but for the most part I find that I get in at a crappy price once I see confirmation. I'm...
Regarding the SL, how are you deciding where to place it?
One of the reasons I started to monitor 2 pairs was because I am aware of my impatience; I would take less than ideal trades because of it. That has helped me avoid temptation of the mediocre trades.
This week has been kind so far, if only it was always that way
I'm in short on EU at the moment.
Setup:
- A rounding of the bullish peaks
- Golden zone
- A nice isolated SH in recent history.
What I don't like: the absence of a clear AB=CD pattern in the bulls. That always makes me suspicious that they're not done yet. 
(there is a tenuous overextension)
Slow to move so far, but let's see what happens.
- #14,285
- Aug 6, 2015 11:21am Aug 6, 2015 11:21am
- | Joined Dec 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,118 Posts
{quote} I really do recommend at least trying tick charts. For me, it gives a totally different viewpoint on the same data. Regarding the SL, how are you deciding where to place it? One of the reasons I started to monitor 2 pairs was because I am aware of my impatience; I would take less than ideal trades because of it. That has helped me avoid temptation of the mediocre trades. This week has been kind so far, if only it was always that way
Your Right. I can't get tick charts on trading view. I like using them for analysis. It looks way smoother then my brokers. but my broker does have tick so I'll start trying them Monday. Do you recommend a particular tick amount? I notice 244 is popular?
"Regarding the SL, how are you deciding where to place it? "
My SL.... Their at my discretion. aggressive entries are a few pips above trigger. I try to go to B/E as soon as possible tho, usually after a 10 pip move. Mostly though I use structure. The stronger the Better. If My entry is close to a particular structure or RN, I would extend it to cover that portion. Most of the time My stops are 10 - 15 pips though.
If I do decide to extend my stops to capture near by structure (sometimes 20 -25 pips). I really take R:R into consideration an I'm more likely to exit and re-enter if price doesn't follow up right away. I think My method to exit and re-enter has been a very weak spot in my trading. Sometimes I'll take 1 or 2 exits for 5 or 6 pips then re-enter. Now I have to make up 10-12 pips plus commissions on that particular trade.
I evaluate structure as : ( this is without taking into consideration whether the structure has been abused or not)
S/T Highs/Lows - weak
L/T Highs / Lows - medium
RN - Medium
NSH/NSL - Medium
Combination of any - High
Hourly/daily - High
Now I use S/T order flow as a way to move SL. I look for a change that supports my expectation, depending on the size of the move I'll immediately go to B/E. Sometimes I move my stops to soon. If price makes a big move compared to the other candles in context , I would move my stops to above / below that candle.
I know. It sounds complicated, uh. Hahaha The one think I've worked out of my trading though is the urge to move stops so I don't get trigger. This was a real problem in my early days
What do you think?
- #14,286
- Edited 2:52pm Aug 6, 2015 11:34am | Edited 2:52pm
- | Joined Dec 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,118 Posts
EURUSD - entered short....
The Rejection and follow up is weak
and price looks like it may want to try to test structure again. Looking for weakness to confirm my expectations
My target is 1.0905
Update: Moved stops to B/E 10:17 PST
Update: Out at B/E
The Rejection and follow up is weak
and price looks like it may want to try to test structure again. Looking for weakness to confirm my expectationsMy target is 1.0905
Update: Moved stops to B/E 10:17 PST
Update: Out at B/E
- #14,287
- Aug 6, 2015 1:01pm Aug 6, 2015 1:01pm
- Joined Nov 2014 | Status: Trader | 1,300 Posts
Do you recommend a particular tick amount? I notice 244 is popular?
I use an MT4 tool that dynamically adjusts the tick count based on history. So it looks back so many days, counts up all the ticks and then averages that out for a pseudo time period that I'm interested in.
e.g. look back 1 day, total tick count was 57,600, so the average number of ticks every 5 minutes was 200.
The results can be quite dramatically different. On one broker, that gives me around 175 tick chart, on another broker that is giving me around 425 ticks!!
My SL.... Their at my discretion. aggressive entries are a few pips above trigger. I try to go to B/E as soon as possible tho, usually after a 10 pip move. Mostly though I use structure. The stronger the Better. If My entry is close to a particular structure or RN, I would extend it to cover that portion. Most of the time My stops are 10 - 15 pips though. If I do decide to extend my stops to capture near by structure (sometimes 20 -25 pips). I really take R:R into consideration an I'm more likely to exit and re-enter if price doesn't follow up right...
Personally, I know that I suffer from loss aversion. I read somewhere that the psychological impact of taking a loss is twice as strong as taking a win.
That being said, I do re-enter. In fact, the current trade on EU I've re-entered. As feared, my impatience got the better of me and the first trade closed out at BE
I then re-entered as price hit some lovely structure that, with the exception of a news spike, seems to be respected very nicely. There was also some AB=CD confluence and the backup of Daily R1. After the LH was made, off we go again!
Although I can see in the time it's taken to type this out, it looks like that trade might be closed out too. Not my day today!
- #14,288
- Aug 6, 2015 1:32pm Aug 6, 2015 1:32pm
- Joined Nov 2014 | Status: Trader | 1,300 Posts
Although I can see in the time it's taken to type this out, it looks like that trade might be closed out too. Not my day today! {image}
If the bears can get their act together, the 1.09 level is looking nicely confluent with an overextension 1.27AB=CD... pretty much bang in line with Mack's assessment
- #14,289
- Aug 6, 2015 2:00pm Aug 6, 2015 2:00pm
couple of late trades from me today, this was a winner but overall ended up - 5 for the day.
reasons -
bullish orderflow
Golden Zone
previous s/r
bar by bar
price just missed my TP by a couple of pips, i exited when the bears showed up.
reasons -
bullish orderflow
Golden Zone
previous s/r
bar by bar
price just missed my TP by a couple of pips, i exited when the bears showed up.
- #14,290
- Aug 6, 2015 2:19pm Aug 6, 2015 2:19pm
Hey guys, i.ve been experimenting with tick data for the last few weeks and took some screenshots earlier today, just to try and compare which tick charts roughly resemble which time charts.
heres the 233 tick chart.....
...and the 3 Min chart
The 144 tick chart.....
....and the 2 min chart
The 89 tick chart.....
.....and the 1 min chart
The 55 tick chart is also essentially the same as the 1 min chart but the candles tend to form faster than 1 minute, maybe average around 40 seconds, altho this is going to vary massively depending on the time of day, volatility, etc.
Bear in mind you can use any number of ticks you like i just chose the 55, 89, 144, 233, because they are fib numbers which tend to be the most common.
heres the 233 tick chart.....
...and the 3 Min chart
The 144 tick chart.....
....and the 2 min chart
The 89 tick chart.....
.....and the 1 min chart
The 55 tick chart is also essentially the same as the 1 min chart but the candles tend to form faster than 1 minute, maybe average around 40 seconds, altho this is going to vary massively depending on the time of day, volatility, etc.
Bear in mind you can use any number of ticks you like i just chose the 55, 89, 144, 233, because they are fib numbers which tend to be the most common.
- #14,291
- Aug 6, 2015 2:44pm Aug 6, 2015 2:44pm
- Joined Nov 2014 | Status: Trader | 1,300 Posts
couple of late trades from me today, this was a winner but overall ended up - 5 for the day. reasons - bullish orderflow Golden Zone previous s/r bar by bar price just missed my TP by a couple of pips, i exited when the bears showed up. {image}
Looks like the bull trade was the better option on EU - well done Wolves77
- #14,292
- Aug 6, 2015 2:54pm Aug 6, 2015 2:54pm
{quote} 2x BE for me
if i'd have given the trade more room it would have been a great 2/1 winner risking 7 pips to make 14.
To add insult to injury my TP line is now acting as a beautiful support line
- #14,294
- Aug 7, 2015 3:26am Aug 7, 2015 3:26am
- Joined Nov 2014 | Status: Trader | 1,300 Posts
Short on EU
Setup: 
Setup:
- Longer term 38 fib
- Mid round number
- Daily R1
Target 1:
- Shorter term 38 fib
- Structure
- Daily PP
Target 2:
- Major round number (1.09)
- #14,295
- Aug 7, 2015 4:55am Aug 7, 2015 4:55am
- Joined Nov 2014 | Status: Trader | 1,300 Posts
{quote} Cheers honestknave, still, i ended up leaving a lot of pips on the table
- #14,296
- Aug 7, 2015 10:49am Aug 7, 2015 10:49am
- | Joined Dec 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,118 Posts
Good Morning there was a couple of things I found interesting on the EURUSD this morning. Sorry I didn't post sooner but I was locked out of my FF account.... haha!
I seen a ABCD form at structure and 88.6 of main leg just before the NFP came out. I don't trade a set up during high profile data releases but thought this was interesting.
I did trade this tho. I left a lot of Pips on the table. I was expecting the 1.09 RN to hold and some more bearish movement. I guess 23 pips in hand is better then 100 pips in the bush.
I'm having a hard time interpreting sentiment and overall bias with the large moves. I was looking to reengage my long on the pullback to 1.09300 but I couldn't get in at a good price and didn't want to chase price.
I'm currently expecting price to zig zag up to 1.10. Hoping to get in on a PB
I seen a ABCD form at structure and 88.6 of main leg just before the NFP came out. I don't trade a set up during high profile data releases but thought this was interesting.
I did trade this tho. I left a lot of Pips on the table. I was expecting the 1.09 RN to hold and some more bearish movement. I guess 23 pips in hand is better then 100 pips in the bush.
I'm having a hard time interpreting sentiment and overall bias with the large moves. I was looking to reengage my long on the pullback to 1.09300 but I couldn't get in at a good price and didn't want to chase price.
I'm currently expecting price to zig zag up to 1.10. Hoping to get in on a PB
- #14,298
- Edited 9:37am Aug 13, 2015 9:13am | Edited 9:37am
- | Joined Dec 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,118 Posts
Well, its been a slow week. I've seen a few set ups and taken none. I just didn't like any of them. just gross. Sort of like what I'm seeing this morning
I took a shot this morning at this trade on the GBPUSD and immediately regretted it. The barriers outweigh any potential profit. I also don't like the increase in momentum and the fact that I'm against recent order flow and strength but after a couple of days just watching , my fingers got a little itchy. I'll be playing this one close. Stops below trigger , first target at RN.... I know , I know 1 to 1 R:R. jeeze.....
As I write this , I'm close to being stopped out
Update: 0724 PST stops at breakeven
Update: 0736 PST Stopped out at B/E
I took a shot this morning at this trade on the GBPUSD and immediately regretted it. The barriers outweigh any potential profit. I also don't like the increase in momentum and the fact that I'm against recent order flow and strength but after a couple of days just watching , my fingers got a little itchy. I'll be playing this one close. Stops below trigger , first target at RN.... I know , I know 1 to 1 R:R. jeeze.....
As I write this , I'm close to being stopped out
Update: 0724 PST stops at breakeven
Update: 0736 PST Stopped out at B/E
- #14,299
- Aug 17, 2015 8:57am Aug 17, 2015 8:57am
- Joined Jan 2011 | Status: Senior Trader | 1,475 Posts
Hi! just started out with harmonics, lots of interesting things, right now I am interested to know the price objective and targets for each pattern,
and how to calculate them. I was wondering if someone could be so kind to share the info. cheers
and how to calculate them. I was wondering if someone could be so kind to share the info. cheers
Bulls are stupid Animals!especially when Im short!
- #14,300
- Aug 17, 2015 9:16am Aug 17, 2015 9:16am
Hi! just started out with harmonics, lots of interesting things, right now I am interested to know the price objective and targets for each pattern, and how to calculate them. I was wondering if someone could be so kind to share the info. cheers
Hopefully this helps. Its From Mr Pip.
DCAST CAPITAL ADVANCE PATTERNS RULES OF ENGAGEMENT.pdf (http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=1690095&d=1433530298)
"Pain + Reflection = Progress"-Ray Dalio