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The Really Useless Thread

  • #136,581
  • Aug 12, 2015 2:04pm Aug 12, 2015 2:04pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Super active day in the markets. Check S&P losing floor (2055.xx) after Europe goes home as that one is the one that will open pandoras box. On your comments, well the reaction is only short term via risk off. None of the macro mid term levels across the board is under threat yet. Basically it was a selloff in European equites via risk first making the simple direct effect of cashing equites for euros and obviously Gold started to pick up but mainly via CHINA QE/devaluation and risk. Now after the opening range US equities followed...
Yeah, that actually looks closer to the money. Euro equities calling the shots on the pair with the volatile sell-off supporting cash and dragging the static dollar down. Either way, a volatile nasty day. Let's hope China settles down and we don't have to worry about another disaster.

We tested 96 and like you say everything all good and aligned mid term for the dollar, but all scrambled and messed up further down the chain now. At least we've got a bunch of important news to track tomorrow that can help put the dollar on a firmer short-term footing.
  • #136,582
  • Aug 13, 2015 5:07am Aug 13, 2015 5:07am
Quoting ClinicalEx
Well, I had to fold everything on E/U from 1.1096 including tentative new entries around yesterdays highs. No excuses, a clean loss on those fresh entries. Still tracking closely for the breakback, but this daily candle has severely misaligned the dollar charts especially on that TF and especially if it closes near the lows. We keep shifting: now 96.00 in play from DXY at support. 96.9/97 the level to track to retake and begin to stop the bleeding. Well done to the bulls; I saw them but I underestimated their strength, and maybe should have...
Dollar finally holds ofter testing important support after being pushed around by euro flows. Just a quick correction about that Euro move coz it caught me off guard (not really relevant.) but just for interests sake it was the Euro in risk off.

[quote=mcxjay;8343324]Gents observe DAX! There is a strong correlation now between DAX and EUR/USD rate. Yesterday recovery from 11.40 was caused by DAX moving from 11640 to 11.560. EUR is not an asset. It is carry currency which means that when there is appetite for risk (Greece problem resolved) international trades rush into "risky" european asset like DAX, CAC etc. etc. THEY DO NOT CHANGE USD INTO EUR to purchase EUR shares, THEY BORROW EUR AT LOW RATE collaterizing with USD assets. At the same time they hedge their EUR/USD exposure by buying EUR/USD short forward contracts. THIS IS WHAT CAUSED THE DROP. Also this is why EUR rose from 1.05 to 1.148 in first place >> DAX dropped from 12450 to 10800. And DAX dropped back then because of GREECE and derisk environment. IF GREEK deal is done DAX will shoot up to 12xxx >> EUR back to 1.05 at least.


Something to note for future reference.


[quote=sisse;8417823]"Well more than a positive environment, is HIKES in US and UK while free money in Europe (QE) with negative rates. If you add to current hikes environment, things slowly improving in the EZ and risk out of the question short term you have a strong support on European equities."

So that can carry Euro weakness going forward and we all know what's at stake on the other side of the pair with the FED. Even if IR crunch down on equites, Euro equities will be least affected, with dollar strength on a rampage on the other side.
  • #136,583
  • Aug 13, 2015 7:19am Aug 13, 2015 7:19am
Quoting ClinicalEx
{quote} Dollar finally holds ofter testing important support after being pushed around by euro flows. Just a quick correction about that Euro move coz it caught me off guard (not really relevant.) but just for interests sake it was the Euro in risk off.
Quoting mcxjay
Gents observe DAX! There is a strong correlation now between DAX and EUR/USD rate. Yesterday recovery from 11.40 was caused by DAX moving from 11640 to 11.560. EUR is not an asset. It is carry currency which means that when there is appetite for risk (Greece problem resolved)
...
Nice explanation Clinical. Thank you.
defense wins championships
  • #136,584
  • Aug 13, 2015 7:26am Aug 13, 2015 7:26am
Quoting ClinicalEx
{quote} Dollar finally holds ofter testing important support after being pushed around by euro flows. Just a quick correction about that Euro move coz it caught me off guard (not really relevant.) but just for interests sake it was the Euro in risk off.
Quoting mcxjay
Gents observe DAX! There is a strong correlation now between DAX and EUR/USD rate. Yesterday recovery from 11.40 was caused by DAX moving from 11640 to 11.560. EUR is not an asset. It is carry currency which means that when there is appetite for risk (Greece problem resolved)
...
Yeap. I agree with your view.

I would only add that the correlation between euro and equities via low interest rates and QE will become stronger and stronger once we pass the initial hikes from the FED. This single issue alone could be the start of a bottom in the euro in the mid term especially in the time gap between after FED first hikes and ECB QE ending. Borrowing euros to rid the pig while US start normalising is definitively the next chapter in the book...

For the short term, news coming, markets digesting the knee jerk reaction from China and things seem back to normal. Claims and Sales coming in the US. Expecting inline to slightly better in both fronts. In the euro, except and overshoot/undershoot a zigzag in play 1.108x --> 1.116x with the first leg on the side of the news. 1.114x only to track until the W roll.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,585
  • Aug 13, 2015 8:28am Aug 13, 2015 8:28am
Quoting sisse
{quote}{quote} Yeap. I agree with your view. I would only add that the correlation between euro and equities via low interest rates and QE will become stronger and stronger once we pass the initial hikes from the FED. This single issue alone could be the start of a bottom in the euro in the mid term especially in the time gap between after FED first hikes and ECB QE ending. Borrowing euros to rid the pig while US start normalising is definitively the next chapter in the book... For the short term, news coming, markets digesting the knee jerk reaction...
Hello Sisse,

After this currency policy change in China, are you still expecting a first rate hike in September ?

I'm thinking that If Fed plans hadn't been so ambigous for the future and more clear, if Fed, dovish for such a long time, hadn't played these last few weeks with the market (and China) a "maybe yes maybe no" play whereas us economy indicators show clearly it's time to switch to a normal currency policy, China would have never devaluated their currency like they did these last days. Their economy is suffering a lot and in front of them what can they see ? A healthy economy about to reach full employment but still with a FULL dovish zero rate currency policy !!!
I can read everywhere that now it won't be easy for the Fed to hike rate this year but I totally disagree. I think what happenned in China is a serious warning for the Fed. Go on, keep your zero rates, and what happened this week will happen again, in China or elsewhere, and it will be then more difficult to dare to do the little big jump you are afraid to do today.
  • #136,586
  • Aug 13, 2015 10:29am Aug 13, 2015 10:29am
Quoting sisse
.... Claims and Sales coming in the US. Expecting inline to slightly better [check] in both fronts. In the euro, except and overshoot/undershoot a zigzag in play 1.108x [check]--> 1.116x [check]with the first leg on the side of the news. 1.114x only to track until the W roll. sisse
And done with the simple news play right on time for the European close. As expected zigzag pretty much completed. Without further surprises that was it for the day.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,587
  • Aug 14, 2015 1:39am Aug 14, 2015 1:39am
Quoting hathor
{quote} Hi Sisse! What if...: {image} {image} To not crack the yearly high, I had to modify your structure a little bit. Since 'C' point the pair is full of shorts, so taking it out (while creating T1 & optionally T2) would be reasonable before heading down (if heading lower at all).
So far...:
11th of Aug:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015_08_11_EurUsd_Daily.png Size: 29 KB

14th of Aug:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015_08_14_EurUsd_Daily_#2.png Size: 26 KB
f(z)=z2+c
  • #136,588
  • Aug 14, 2015 1:53am Aug 14, 2015 1:53am
Final payday in Oil !!! In the trade of the summer, clearing first main mid term target on the test of the $41.xx handle and changing short term outlook in OIL from sell to neutral (TBC next Wednesday with inventories) anything below will open PANIC and will send shockwaves across the board.....

Quoting sisse
Next in line for the domino OIL. Tracking extremely closely 50.9x [check] in the next few sessions (especially the W roll). Failure to take it to the upside will unlock the mid term swing to $36.5x and max extension $26.4x with strong intermediate stops at $48.3x [check] and $41.2x [check]....
On the rest of the board, back to key decision levels for next week. Most markets entering in important trading areas for short and more importantly mid term swings.

On the euro, as expected we rolled 1.114x. Plethora of news today for a chance to position for news next week (inflation and to lesser extend Minutes). German and French posting mediocre readings and cancelling each other but this time eyes are on the other EZ members numbers.

We are entering choose your poison time once again for the main legs. Setting the High of the month in play for today's roll and the potential momentum plays next Wednesday. 1.114x holding the open for a chance of test of the never ending 1.127x with US reports later and confirm the highs of the month early next week. Tradable range for the positioning move but the real deal is to the other side. ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,589
  • Aug 14, 2015 2:24am Aug 14, 2015 2:24am
Quoting hathor
{quote} So far...: 11th of Aug: {image} 14th of Aug: {image}
You keep modifying the chart ... why? when nothing has changed yet neither fundamentally or technically ... well will see if we get a chart update later next week ....je je je

In any case GL managing those longs...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,590
  • Aug 14, 2015 3:01am Aug 14, 2015 3:01am
Quoting sisse
Final payday in Oil !!! In the trade of the summer, clearing first main mid term target on the test of the $41.xx handle and changing short term outlook in OIL from sell to neutral (TBC next Wednesday with inventories) anything below will open PANIC and will send shockwaves across the board..... {quote} On the rest of the board, back to key decision levels for next week. Most markets entering in important trading areas for short and more importantly mid term swings. On the euro, as expected we rolled 1.114x. Plethora of news today for a chance to...
sisse, 1140 ( in my chart pivot ) broke, I sold.
Intraday only.
  • #136,591
  • Aug 14, 2015 3:11am Aug 14, 2015 3:11am
Quoting sisse
{quote} You keep modifying the chart ... why? when nothing has changed yet neither fundamentally or technically ... well will see if we get a chart update later next week ....je je je In any case GL managing those longs... sisse
I didn't modify since 11th of August, just cut the upper & lower part accidentally..this may gives the illusion of modifying (Print Screen fail).
Good luck to you either text pal!

Structure match:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015_08_14_EurUsd_Daily_#3.png Size: 23 KB

With triangle:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015_08_14_EurUsd_Daily_#4.png Size: 23 KB

f(z)=z2+c
  • #136,592
  • Aug 14, 2015 4:21am Aug 14, 2015 4:21am
With 2 FED meetings to go September and December.. the chances of September rate hike does seem to be less likely.. So much deflationary pressure with the oil and now China manipulating there own currency by around 4-5%.. Would you be giving even odds to a September hike now? with inflation struggling to see the 2% target... I wouldnt.. no grey from me just good ole black and white.. lol
  • #136,593
  • Aug 14, 2015 7:29am Aug 14, 2015 7:29am
...and here we go with reports. A bit more important than usual PPI given the dovish FED members latest comments and especially with OIL collapsing in the last few weeks.

Expecting inline or a slightly miss on the headline but the play completes after NY opening range with Consumer confidence (expecting a solid number). For the play, as expected Europe held 1.114x leaving a new test 1.127x open for an exhaustion intraday leg.

Pretty basic and direct flows. Micro 1.117x for a test of highs before final target. To the other side on a higher print 1.108x to mark the high of this month...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,594
  • Aug 14, 2015 7:39am Aug 14, 2015 7:39am
Slightly better than forecasted in the headline killing pretty much anything interesting until NY opening range.

FED dovs have been completely naked by news the last few weeks. They linked hikes to employment, we printed higher numbers, they rolled back to link it to inflation, we printed target numbers....

Get ready for the doves to throw everything but the sink in the next weeks if we have a final inline or higher inflation printing next Wednesday... Expecting, main headlines flooding the wires with oil prices collapsing and the impact on deflation ....etc etc etc ...

Nothing to see until NY....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,595
  • Aug 14, 2015 8:36am Aug 14, 2015 8:36am
Quoting sisse
Slightly better than forecasted in the headline killing pretty much anything interesting until NY opening range. FED dovs have been completely naked by news the last few weeks. They linked hikes to employment, we printed higher numbers, they rolled back to link it to inflation, we printed target numbers.... Get ready for the doves to throw everything but the sink in the next weeks if we have a final inline or higher inflation printing next Wednesday... Expecting, main headlines flooding the wires with oil prices collapsing and the impact on deflation...
Sisse,
it will be interesting to see what the FOMC minutes bring. The fed have been giving plenty of excuses and personally, if they decide to look pass this data, and quote external factors again, i expect it will only make sense that the USD will sell off massively and that volatility will trigger tons of stops in the overbought - oversold prices at current. Given the current price, in which buyers show hesitance and reluctance to buy the dollar, it keeps me wondering, are they looking to get filled at a lower level, or simply not buying until the green light for hikes is given in concrete. So far, June GDP - improved, employments & wages - improved, PPI - improved. What more can they point at? External factors - China? Oil getting smashed?
Your thoughts?

Regards,
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #136,596
  • Aug 14, 2015 11:17am Aug 14, 2015 11:17am
Quoting RelaxRay
{quote} S.... Your thoughts? Regards,
To be completely honest: We are in August in the middle of the summer .... last July FOMC was clear and sent everybody on Holidays for the expected wild Q3/Q4.

As we have discussed here since the last FOMC NFP last week and inflation the 19th are the only ones to keep an eye for macro fundamentals. The big party is in early September when "everybody" will be back on their desk....

In any case, Europe going home with equities in RED via CHINA while Euro as expected coughing at the highs after the news. Tracking 1.111x for the rest of the session and a potential test on the 1.12xx handle but more importantly 1.114x for the W roll to set the HIGH of the month in the next couple of sessions ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,597
  • Aug 17, 2015 1:26pm Aug 17, 2015 1:26pm
A dull day across the board with an unexpected very bad number from NY. However, key levels in play for the close pre key inflation and Minutes next Wednesday. Choose your poison time across the board in all majors from todays close.

---> Alerts triggered in Equities. All eyes on US equities as they look "al dente" for the next rates move down. S&P holding 2100.xx for the close (and especially on Wednesday) unlocks the second short term swing (outlook update from July 20th below) but this time with destination the mid term target (1980.xx). It will also mark the official start of the end of "Obama's rally" (+ 220% !!! which is a historical rally record...)... Only and awful miss in inflation will delay the outcome.

Quoting sisse
---> All eyes on 2130.xx [check]failure to take it during the next few sessions until max the FOMC will mark the HIGH of the year in US equities (via hikes...) opening a very yummy leg until next year to 1942.xx with max extension 1890.xx and hard intermediate stops at 2045.xx [check] and 1980.xx.[in play]
---> Gold also in a wide intraday play pre inflation reports. Eyes on 1121.xx to complete swing target 1030.xx on rates. A miss in inflation will delay the rates move and unlock a also mini short term leg to 1131.xx till September.

---> Oil on the other side of the board this time. Its flirting to set a short term floor until further data. A flop in inflation will help and it will unlock a short term leg to $41.8x -> $44.4x but any small wind from any front will unlock a MAJOR PANIC LEG at leastto the $36.xx handle.

---> Dollar keep lagging and chopping around until the RMT leg is clear and it will be in the driver sit this Wednesday. Euro already set the map for this week. 1.105x -> 1.128x (1.133x max extension) with a big miss in inflation. Anything else 1.114x only level in play for the mid term targets.

GL all trading, planning to trade or simple tracking the next legs....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,598
  • Aug 17, 2015 4:01pm Aug 17, 2015 4:01pm
Quoting sisse
1.105x -> 1.128x (1.133x max extension) with a big miss in inflation.
Do you have some angles about where a miss in inflation could come from? Lower oil prices haven't been reflected in the consumer market yet. Also, are you expecting some EURUSD pumping to happen before the wednesday FOMC minutes (as far as 1.128x - 1.13) or is that too drastic?

Whatever happens, good luck with choosing your poison once more, as you put it nicely.
  • #136,599
  • Aug 18, 2015 4:51am Aug 18, 2015 4:51am
...and that was pretty much for the european session.

Markets aligning for a slightly lower inflation numbers before the Minutes. In the Euro 1.105x tested on the open as expected for the play 1.133x with strong stop 1.114x for the key inflation reports. More importantly US Equities (S&P) held 2100.xx for the close yesterday leaving the door wide open for a new test of highs (2120.xx) while GOLD unlocked 1131.xx in the close yesterday. Both aligned with lower inflation numbers expectations.

Oil is a bit isolated given the current price area but inventories with a bad combination across the board will trigger first attempt to break down to a panic leg (something to track even for those not trading directly as it will bring massive shockwaves ....).

Only a massive miss in inflation will delay the outcome across the board while a strong overshoot (not expected at all) will make markets fell like a rock with lots of momentum. Any other outcome its confirmed zigzag in play with the FOMC minutes.

GL all today...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,600
  • Aug 18, 2015 4:59am Aug 18, 2015 4:59am
Quoting sisse
...and that was pretty much for the european session. Markets aligning for a slightly lower inflation numbers before the Minutes. In the Euro 1.105x tested on the open as expected for the play 1.133x with strong stop 1.114x for the key inflation reports. More importantly US Equities (S&P) held 2100.xx for the close yesterday leaving the door wide open for a new test of highs (2120.xx) while GOLD unlocked 1131.xx in the close yesterday. Both aligned with lower inflation numbers expectations. Oil is a bit isolated given the current price area but...
You are expecting E/U up to 114x and if this not hold then to 133x?
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