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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #136,461
  • Aug 12, 2015 9:50am Aug 12, 2015 9:50am
Quoting mbqb11
{quote} yep exactly Ziv here was another similar trade I had on aud/usd Short on the 4hr beob(not shown on this feed). I took a slight retrace to the previous pivot(the same one I used previously for a buy) Before {image} middle quickly moving stop {image} After {image}
Thanks for this Mike. great example.

Referring to this:
Quote
The better way I like to teach it that each situation usually dictates what entry will make more sense. Sometimes that's a break, sometimes a close, sometimes a retracement.

Does this mean that in aud/usd trade if this bearish candle closed only few pips below TL you would enter on the close? or maybe on the break?
My understanding is that because it closed strongly below TL you waited for a bit of pull back.
  • #136,462
  • Aug 12, 2015 10:38am Aug 12, 2015 10:38am
Quoting ziven78
{quote} Thanks for this Mike. great example. Referring to this: {quote} Does this mean that in aud/usd trade if this bearish candle closed only few pips below TL you would enter on the close? or maybe on the break? My understanding is that because it closed strongly below TL you waited for a bit of pull back.
yes exactly Ziven

You want to be playing around the major s/r, patterns, confluence whatever it is for the trade as close as possible pending it makes sense

I did the same thing this morning on aud/usd again. I used that bottom of the box and when price snapped back above it fakeout breakout I call it I put a buy limit back at that box low. It missed my entry by 8 pips as a previous small support held us up. But that's ok I want to be closer to the major area in order to better reduce my risk and manage a trade more effectively.

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Not every situation is exactly like this but the concept is pretty much the same


Best
Mike
  • #136,463
  • Aug 12, 2015 1:18pm Aug 12, 2015 1:18pm
Mike, please tell me if i did the right thing here. I saw the big red bearish bar and i thought it is a good place to short. Why? Because we have there two little boxes. I said in my mind that i should not short that candle immediately after closing and i should wait for retrace. I calculated the 50% of that bar and i put a pending sell there. The tp was on the bottom of the box. I was only looking at D1, not H4 for R/S. I was lucky or i was thinking the way i should. Should i also look at H4 for an entry? Thanks!
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  • #136,464
  • Aug 12, 2015 2:27pm Aug 12, 2015 2:27pm
SGDJPY Daily OB

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  • #136,465
  • Aug 12, 2015 3:06pm Aug 12, 2015 3:06pm
Quoting minijup9615
Mike, please tell me if i did the right thing here. I saw the big red bearish bar and i thought it is a good place to short. Why? Because we have there two little boxes. I said in my mind that i should not short that candle immediately after closing and i should wait for retrace. I calculated the 50% of that bar and i put a pending sell there. The tp was on the bottom of the box. I was only looking at D1, not H4 for R/S. I was lucky or i was thinking the way i should. Should i also look at H4 for an entry? Thanks! {image}
Mini, how did you sell at the ret and take profit already? According to my data feed you should be 20 odd points behind at the moment
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  • #136,466
  • Aug 12, 2015 3:20pm Aug 12, 2015 3:20pm
Incognito, you are right. I mixed up the charts, but that made me think that it's not really a good plan. Or is it if i put the pending order under the 50%? Now i'm confused...). Sorry again for the mixing. Thank you! You have and eye for these things. The chart that i was talking about was the NZDJPY and the plan worked there. What do you think incognito and mike? Luck...?
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  • #136,467
  • Edited Aug 13, 2015 1:29am Aug 12, 2015 4:10pm | Edited Aug 13, 2015 1:29am
Quoting minijup9615
Incognito, you are right. I mixed up the charts, but that made me think that it's not really a good plan. Or is it if i put the pending order under the 50%? Now i'm confused...). Sorry again for the mixing. Thank you! You have and eye for these things. The chart that i was talking about was the NZDJPY and the plan worked there. What do you think incognito and mike? Luck...? {image}
I was kicked by SL on NZDUSD in the similiar position... Forgot about Zamfir's advice not to take trend/huge BEOB

Mini, I think it is luck. It was not a good setup
  • #136,468
  • Aug 12, 2015 9:16pm Aug 12, 2015 9:16pm
Quoting minijup9615
Incognito, you are right. I mixed up the charts, but that made me think that it's not really a good plan. Or is it if i put the pending order under the 50%? Now i'm confused...). Sorry again for the mixing. Thank you! You have and eye for these things. The chart that i was talking about was the NZDJPY and the plan worked there. What do you think incognito and mike? Luck...? {image}
First I would like to know if you have back tested the 50% retracement method? I'm sure you haven't. In the right hands that little method will and can produce 25% a year return on only ONE pair. So times that by 10 pairs!!! Theirs your super system!! Oh but one loss and that means its trash? Thats newbie thinking. Think of it this way. If you take 100 trades and 70 of them are profitable of 2-1 that's a good system right??? Well I just gave that exact system for free!!! But that's just a single tool you need in your tool box. You cant build a house with just a hammer right? You need a saw, level and square right? PA isn't just a pin bar and outside bar.

A somewhat famous trader has broken down the percentages of any given pin bar, Inside bar and outside. Plus did pivot point chances of hitting next pivot. I've done my own back testing and I will say he is close to accurate. Pin bars are the lowest on that list. Pin bars alone were close to only 50% accurate. So why trade them blindly?James speaks of the whys and why nots in the first 300 pages of this forum.

So inco why do I get frustrated by newbies? Cause here is their building blocks but somehow the first 6800 pages of this thread are ignored and expect Mike to answer every damn newbie question again and again. When all they have to do is start at page one and read forward. Second Inco I dont really care where my profits come from. Think of it like this. If you were able to buy your family a new home or help a parent out financially from trading would you really care where the money came from?

Turnip Zamir Mike and others are looking out for your best interest. Please Please don't blindly just trade but do the work yourself and back test this stuff. Forward test it. Learn money management and risk control techniques BEFORE you worry about how to get into a trade!!
  • #136,469
  • Edited 1:16am Aug 13, 2015 1:01am | Edited 1:16am
Quoting jscathey11
{quote} First I would like to know if you have back tested the 50% retracement method? I'm sure you haven't. In the right hands that little method will and can produce 25% a year return on only ONE pair. So times that by 10 pairs!!! Theirs your super system!! Oh but one loss and that means its trash? Thats newbie thinking. Think of it this way. If you take 100 trades and 70 of them are profitable of 2-1 that's a good system right??? Well I just gave that exact system for free!!! But that's just a single tool you need in your tool box. You cant build...
To be fair that is a lot of pages and for all your experience and knowledge of this complex and daunting Forex world I am sure that you have asked questions without knowing the full story..... curiosity... naivety... just parts of being human. Mike and the guys here who help are great people but let them speak for themselves, if they do not wish to answer then they wont.

The question may have been a "newbie" (again depends on the level you trade at) question but it was asked in a respectful manner and that I appreciate. Also do not forget that part of this thread is about progression, learning together from the bottom up, if all questions and points perceived as "newbie" are deleted or removed than this thread becomes elitist. In my opinion the reason this thread has stood the test of time is because it is accessible, because it isn't full of people preaching or egos battling it out for space and mostly because it is a place where you can come and find like-minded people succeeding and failing together.

I understand your points and I respect your opinions but your tone, for me, at times needs adjusting down a little.
  • #136,470
  • Aug 13, 2015 1:30am Aug 13, 2015 1:30am
Quoting jscathey11
{quote} First I would like to know if you have back tested the 50% retracement method? I'm sure you haven't. In the right hands that little method will and can produce 25% a year return on only ONE pair. So times that by 10 pairs!!! Theirs your super system!! Oh but one loss and that means its trash? Thats newbie thinking. Think of it this way. If you take 100 trades and 70 of them are profitable of 2-1 that's a good system right??? Well I just gave that exact system for free!!! But that's just a single tool you need in your tool box. You cant build...
Hey cathey, nobody said that the system is trash. The pinbars, IB, everything works. I'm the one that does not know what switches to push to make the things work. I really think that after reading the first 300 pages, a newbie will be confused. You were a newbie, everybody was. I agree with you that maybe some of our newbie questions are naive or stupid, but that is because the older guys that are trading forex for 14 years went over these problems and solved them. Didn't you have all these problems/questions? You started trading with no questions? I'm asking questions now because even if i do something well i want to know that from a professional trader. So ... if you are upset by our newbie questions, i'm sorry.
  • #136,471
  • Aug 13, 2015 1:46am Aug 13, 2015 1:46am
Quoting jscathey11
{quote} First I would like to know if you have back tested the 50% retracement method? I'm sure you haven't. In the right hands that little method will and can produce 25% a year return on only ONE pair. So times that by 10 pairs!!! Theirs your super system!! Oh but one loss and that means its trash? Thats newbie thinking. Think of it this way ....
Mini got TP and got profit. You should read carefully newbie posts before criticizing....
  • #136,472
  • Aug 13, 2015 2:29am Aug 13, 2015 2:29am
Quoting minijup9615
{quote} Hey cathey, nobody said that the system is trash. The pinbars, IB, everything works. I'm the one that does not know what switches to push to make the things work. I really think that after reading the first 300 pages, a newbie will be confused. You were a newbie, everybody was. I agree with you that maybe some of our newbie questions are naive or stupid, but that is because the older guys that are trading forex for 14 years went over these problems and solved them. Didn't you have all these problems/questions? You started trading with no...
if I may...

Js has quite a harsh way of saying things but I guess his take home message is pretty simple (as I see it...).
Shortly, everything (almost...) has been discussed in this thread. Yes, one of the reasons this thread is still up and running is that it welcomes beginners and provide an easy to use information.

I discovered forex & this thread not so long ago. You are right, reading this thread form the beginning is overwhelming. Too much information - what shoud I start with - How the hell can I adapt a trading strategy to my own if I don't even understand what they are talking about...
Believe me, I know the feeling.

Yet, reading J16's, Mike's, Jarroo's and many others' posts helped me a lot. Really, in an incredible way.
I couldn't grasp everything, but what I got was basics from which I could start building something - even if I couldn't understand exactly what.

You'll find gems while reading this thread - gems that you would need ages to see appearing again...

Then it's up to every reader to make these posts useful for their trading. THis is where the hard work JS talks about resides...

Really, reading this thread - and watching vids at J16 site - are really worth the effort

Take care
Slow & steady
  • #136,473
  • Aug 13, 2015 3:31am Aug 13, 2015 3:31am
Quoting minijup9615
{quote} Hey cathey, nobody said that the system is trash. The pinbars, IB, everything works. I'm the one that does not know what switches to push to make the things work. I really think that after reading the first 300 pages, a newbie will be confused. You were a newbie, everybody was. I agree with you that maybe some of our newbie questions are naive or stupid, but that is because the older guys that are trading forex for 14 years went over these problems and solved them. Didn't you have all these problems/questions? You started trading with no...

Greetings Minijup, and welcome.

Here's a great place to begin. This link is from page 1 post 1 about one third of the page down. It is a summary of a lot of J16 method. I think you will enjoy the reading. GB.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...99#post2585699
'Fail to plan, plan to fail'
  • #136,474
  • Aug 13, 2015 3:43am Aug 13, 2015 3:43am
Quoting SeekingLight
{quote} .... I'm not a good reference currently, as I'm not in good shape. I've missed so many obvious things lately and made some bad decisions, I'm worried about getting back on track. I think I have a problem and I really need to get over that in order to move on and get past this barrier I've set myself. Anyway - after this steep a decline, I wouldn't risk trying anything other than a perfect pin on really good confluence + s/r. Also ask yourself - where could it go? Just my opinion. Take care, SeekingLight
Patapouer, you're absolutely right!!! There are tons of useful information.
Yesterday I saw myself in 8 years' prescription post))) Got some satisfaction, that I'm not alone on this long road & others coped with same problems)))
  • #136,475
  • Aug 13, 2015 3:58am Aug 13, 2015 3:58am
Quoting mordin
Three more losers that I thought they were good setups. Started the month with +2.45% and now I'm -4.21%. {image} {image}

Hello mordin,

in this USD/SGD I took also a loss. Also I saw your losses in EUR/NZD and EUR/AUD.

The reason for that moves were not some weak pin bars or location.
The reason here was purely fundamental, since China reduced drastically their interest rates three days in a row.
The reductions were unpredictable and not sheduled on any calender.
So SGD, AUD & NZD are economies closely correlated to china and in USD/SGD and EUR/NZD you catched
the moves of these rate reductions.

Trading is not only technical, there are fundamental reasons driving the markets
and one of the most important, when not the most important, are interest rates.
  • #136,476
  • Aug 13, 2015 4:06am Aug 13, 2015 4:06am
Quoting minijup9615
Incognito, you are right. I mixed up the charts, but that made me think that it's not really a good plan. Or is it if i put the pending order under the 50%? Now i'm confused...). Sorry again for the mixing. Thank you! You have and eye for these things. The chart that i was talking about was the NZDJPY and the plan worked there. What do you think incognito and mike? Luck...? {image}
Haha yes I do, I scrutinize everything. Sorry!

Mini, the way I see it, it's a game of probabilities. If you backtest a particular pair and if 60% of 50% OB retracements go on to give you a minimum of 2:1 risk reward, then whilst you have an equal chance of winning or losing an individual trade, in the long run you can expect a positive hit rate of 60% and that is a good edge. So if that is what you've done, well done! You're playing the probabilities and it's worked this time. It's not luck, not for you at least.
  • #136,477
  • Aug 13, 2015 4:12am Aug 13, 2015 4:12am
Quoting jscathey11
{quote} So inco why do I get frustrated by newbies? Cause here is their building blocks but somehow the first 6800 pages of this thread are ignored and expect Mike to answer every damn newbie question again and again. When all they have to do is start at page one and read forward. Second Inco I dont really care where my profits come from. Think of it like this. If you were able to buy your family a new home or help a parent out financially from trading would you really care where the money came from?
JS, when you had a question back in university, did you scan through hundreds of textbooks for the answer or did you just ask your professors? It’s not that newbies refuse to read through the thread, I’m pretty sure everyone’s doing that already. But they may still have questions, so they ask. And a lot of guys in here chip in to help them. Isn’t that nice? Why must you always be so arrogant and condescending?
  • #136,478
  • Aug 13, 2015 5:27am Aug 13, 2015 5:27am
Quoting mbqb11
{quote} yes exactly Ziven You want to be playing around the major s/r, patterns, confluence whatever it is for the trade as close as possible pending it makes sense I did the same thing this morning on aud/usd again. I used that bottom of the box and when price snapped back above it fakeout breakout I call it I put a buy limit back at that box low. It missed my entry by 8 pips as a previous small support held us up. But that's ok I want to be closer to the major area in order to better reduce my risk and manage a trade more effectively. {image}...
Mike it is a great educational post but have to admit that i'm a bit puzzled. I've been here for a while but this kind of trade it's kind a new to me.

I get an idea of a fake out, but can you call it before even candle closes? (i mean the second green candle)
Or is it momentum play, you see the PA bouncing back off the level and you presume it will not hold thus giving you directional play?

Thanks
  • #136,479
  • Aug 13, 2015 8:23am Aug 13, 2015 8:23am
Quoting ziven78
{quote} Mike it is a great educational post but have to admit that i'm a bit puzzled. I've been here for a while but this kind of trade it's kind a new to me. I get an idea of a fake out, but can you call it before even candle closes? (i mean the second green candle) Or is it momentum play, you see the PA bouncing back off the level and you presume it will not hold thus giving you directional play? Thanks
I've been watching Mike's videos on PF guest area and youtube, and I can say that a lot has to do with boxes and how you play them. Here, price whipped back into the box and it made sense to enter on retracement at support area.
1.02^200
  • #136,480
  • Edited 9:43am Aug 13, 2015 9:10am | Edited 9:43am
USD/CAD H4 IB breakout. BE. Risk free trade.

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EUR/USD H4. Entry on lower TF PB. In before the crowd. Profit locked.

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NZD/USD H4 IB breakout. 12 pip stop, low risk.

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'Fail to plan, plan to fail'
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