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Flag trading the trend

  • #7,601
  • Aug 11, 2015 10:23am Aug 11, 2015 10:23am
today would have been a pb to support entry
  • #7,602
  • Aug 12, 2015 4:01am Aug 12, 2015 4:01am
Ok, this is getting silly, I really, really must start getting up earlier. Just spotted this Crude setup from earlier. In the screenshot I have left the 3 min chart on as well just to show how painless it was. 39 minutes in the trade, max 6 ticks against, target achieved.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Crude Range #55.png Size: 60 KB
  • #7,603
  • Aug 12, 2015 6:59am Aug 12, 2015 6:59am
Quoting JackAntigua
Ok, this is getting silly, I really, really must start getting up earlier. Just spotted this Crude setup from earlier. In the screenshot I have left the 3 min chart on as well just to show how painless it was. 39 minutes in the trade, max 6 ticks against, target achieved. {image}
Yes, CL can move surprisingly lot pre NY open and very regularly. Of course, volume is not great, but we don't need that big volume anyway
  • #7,604
  • Aug 12, 2015 7:05am Aug 12, 2015 7:05am
Yes indeed. Another one I just missed as well which went to target, I wasn't sure about it though as it had a bit of a rounded top to it. Even quicker than the previous one, only took 18 minutes. Oh well, all good for the learning curve.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Crude Range #56.png Size: 42 KB
  • #7,605
  • Aug 12, 2015 10:13am Aug 12, 2015 10:13am
Was there a 123 to get back into trend?
  • #7,606
  • Aug 12, 2015 10:19am Aug 12, 2015 10:19am
Quoting Divergence
Was there a 123 to get back into trend?
yes there was which i entered then panicked and exited for -10(should have been +20) ... this followed an earlier -20 for me terrible day for me going for a break took a -20 yesterday as well confidence is hit
Become the casino
  • #7,607
  • Aug 12, 2015 10:53am Aug 12, 2015 10:53am
Quoting erasmus66
{quote} yes there was which i entered then panicked and exited for -10(should have been +20) ... this followed an earlier -20 for me terrible day for me going for a break took a -20 yesterday as well confidence is hit

erasmus the purpose of all the backtesting is to see if a method is viable and consistent enough to make money and if it is we need to trade it same way we backtested it. Part of rules is dont trade Wednesdays
  • #7,608
  • Aug 12, 2015 11:39am Aug 12, 2015 11:39am
yes messed up today back test is good tomorrow's another day
Become the casino
  • #7,609
  • Aug 12, 2015 12:26pm Aug 12, 2015 12:26pm
Quoting JackAntigua
Another great setup on the Euro earlier. If only I wasn't such a lazybones and could actually get up at a decent time I might catch some of these!!! {image}
What is that timeframe ? you guys use Time frame M5 H1 ?
  • #7,610
  • Aug 12, 2015 2:59pm Aug 12, 2015 2:59pm
Quoting Mariodrugs
{quote} What is that timeframe ? you guys use Time frame M5 H1 ?
Come on, Mario, make a little effort, we know you can do it ...

... if you read the very first post, you will see that Divergence says to go straight to Post # 7071, so you type 7071 in the middle of the three boxes at the top left of the page, one click and you will be taken to Post 7071... the appliance of science ! Then you have less than 500 posts to read, instead of over 7,600... in fact many less than 500, because you can just read Divergence's posts and skip the very many posts where he is just posting his trades as they happen (well, you should really read all mine too as I am extremely intelligent, perceptive and full of endless insight... ).

Then you will see that range bars are the preferred bar type for this method. D uses Sierra Charts (it's all in the thread), some of us use NinjaTrader and others MT4 (for which you need a range bar indicator - search FF for a free one). We are also trading primarily futures, not FX, mostly CL, which is the symbol for crude oil and $10/tick.

Good luck : Divergence has shared - and continues to share - some real jewels in this thread... and forgive me for being somewhat flippant in my nevertheless precise response. It's end of the day here and my British sense of humour sometimes (almost always ?) gets the better of me .. lol.
  • #7,611
  • Aug 12, 2015 3:06pm Aug 12, 2015 3:06pm
Quoting erasmus66
yes messed up today back test is good tomorrow's another day
You think you messed up !? Only one day !? I had my second worst ever sequence of losing trades in a row last Thursday, Friday, Monday - EIGHT in a row (trading a 3 lot on Bund and 6E)... all because I was stupidly over-confident in introducing a new component (making very aggressive entries based on reading the Order Flow)... one of those situations where you look back in utter astonishment at how you traded something new Live without spending a week in SIM first. Arrogant folly.

A very expensive lesson... 'got what I deserved.
  • #7,612
  • Aug 13, 2015 3:39am Aug 13, 2015 3:39am
Guys,
Has any of you made consistent money with with methode - close to what the backtest suggest ?

If not I think there is a major flaw with the way you backtest - specially with the chart type

I like the method, I think it can make money and I am here to help the group hopefully
  • #7,613
  • Aug 13, 2015 4:42am Aug 13, 2015 4:42am
Crude stopped at +1.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Crude Range #57.png Size: 65 KB
  • #7,614
  • Aug 13, 2015 4:47am Aug 13, 2015 4:47am
Quoting jtrade
{quote} You think you messed up !? Only one day !? I had my second worst ever sequence of losing trades in a row last Thursday, Friday, Monday - EIGHT in a row (trading a 3 lot on Bund and 6E)... all because I was stupidly over-confident in introducing a new component (making very aggressive entries based on reading the Order Flow)... one of those situations where you look back in utter astonishment at how you traded something new Live without spending a week in SIM first. Arrogant folly. A very expensive lesson... 'got what I deserved.
that is a tough run jt ... hope it's starting to get better for you
Become the casino
  • #7,615
  • Aug 13, 2015 6:21am Aug 13, 2015 6:21am
anyone's take on this day ... 4th dec 14:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cl04dec14.png Size: 34 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cl04dec14a.png Size: 34 KB


1st trade: 123 reversal long for loss
2nd trade: continuation short for loss
3rd trade: reversal long for b/e
4th trade: continuation short for win
Become the casino
  • #7,616
  • Aug 13, 2015 7:01am Aug 13, 2015 7:01am
Quoting erasmus66
anyone's take on this day ... 4th dec 14: {image} {image} 1st trade: 123 reversal long for loss 2nd trade: continuation short for loss 3rd trade: reversal long for b/e 4th trade: continuation short for win
I can't get my range bar data to go back that far. Below are the 5 min & Daily charts for that day but weirdly they are not showing the same data range as in your chart.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Crude 5 min #1.png Size: 30 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Crude Daily #1.png Size: 26 KB
  • #7,617
  • Aug 13, 2015 7:26am Aug 13, 2015 7:26am
strange ... thanks for trying Jack
Become the casino
  • #7,618
  • Aug 13, 2015 7:27am Aug 13, 2015 7:27am
downtrend 2b reversal might set up
Become the casino
  • #7,619
  • Aug 13, 2015 7:28am Aug 13, 2015 7:28am
Quoting mb206
Guys, Has any of you made consistent money with with methode - close to what the backtest suggest ? If not I think there is a major flaw with the way you backtest - specially with the chart type I like the method, I think it can make money and I am here to help the group hopefully
explain what the major flaw is
  • #7,620
  • Aug 13, 2015 7:52am Aug 13, 2015 7:52am
Quoting erasmus66
strange ... thanks for trying Jack
It wasn't a Brent chart was it? I'm not subscribed to that data at the moment though.
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