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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #136,441
  • Aug 12, 2015 3:16am Aug 12, 2015 3:16am
Quoting mordin
There were beautiful pinbars on some EUR pairs, and yet they failed. Damn it. I can understand this one, as the FTA was near with perfect touches. {image} {image} Edit: I've been analyzing these trades, I think my fault was that I should have cancelled my orders as in the next candle were not picked up, momentum not strong. But I HOPED (bad thing) that it could go down as they were very pretty.
Hi Mordin,

if you want my advise (Im a rookie) stop trading on anything less than Daily charts. It will make much more sense for you, you will see. PA on Daily - as Zamfir said before too - is more reliable and gives much better trades than on lower TFs. The only downside is that you can have a smallr R:R than on 4H or 1H.

Stick with daily and you will see things will improve, then you can move to lower TFs.

Cheers.
Market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
  • #136,442
  • Aug 12, 2015 3:27am Aug 12, 2015 3:27am
Quoting FXBat
{quote} Hi Mordin, if you want my advise (Im a rookie) stop trading on anything less than Daily charts. It will make much more sense for you, you will see. PA on Daily - as Zamfir said before too - is more reliable and gives much better trades than on lower TFs. The only downside is that you can have a smallr R:R than on 4H or 1H. Stick with daily and you will see things will improve, then you can move to lower TFs. Cheers.
Thanks!

I have different accounts for H4 and D1 / W1, so I can better track my performance. My drawdown is similar on both accounts, the other day for example I had two big losses on D1, so I don't think that is the problem.
On H4, thanks to the zamfir recomendation I only look for perfect textbook candles, on D1 I'm a little more flexible.


Thanks for you comments!
Had to be me. Someone else might have gotten it wrong.
  • #136,443
  • Aug 12, 2015 3:30am Aug 12, 2015 3:30am
Quoting FXBat
{quote} Hi Mordin, if you want my advise (Im a rookie) stop trading on anything less than Daily charts. It will make much more sense for you, you will see. PA on Daily - as Zamfir said before too - is more reliable and gives much better trades than on lower TFs. The only downside is that you can have a smallr R:R than on 4H or 1H. Stick with daily and you will see things will improve, then you can move to lower TFs. Cheers.
I couldn't agree more. D1
  • #136,444
  • Aug 12, 2015 3:43am Aug 12, 2015 3:43am
Quoting ziven78
{quote} {quote} Hi Mike, Would you consider this one as a pre-emptive BO? Close above TL and a bit of a pull back. (8H BUOB etc.) {image}
This trade would have worked well if it wasn't for my wonderful broker that have had technical issues today.
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closed presuming a gap close (the gap that did not exist BTW)
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Lesson learnt: Always have alternative charting software opened!
  • #136,445
  • Aug 12, 2015 4:12am Aug 12, 2015 4:12am
There have been many discussions on Timeframes. Let me share with you all my experiences with them. I have trading and tested all TF from 5/15/1h/2h/8h/16h..you name it. But i will share my experiences with the most common ones.

1H - you will need to really really pick the best ones as there will be many. So your strategy must consider this fact. Issue with this TF is you will miss many setups as you cannot watch the markets on all 3 sessions. So while its ok to trade stocks/futures on 1hr , its not very practical to trade FOREX on 1hr. Try trading 1hr for a week and you will know what i mean.

4h - Again same issues as 1H.

D1 - This is the ideal TF for beginners or anyone trading FOREX for living. Probability is good and on average you should easily make 2000 pips a month without breaking a sweat on 28 pairs(majors+minors). if you cannot do this , there is no way you will make anywhere close to this on any TF lower than daily.

W1- Stops too big for most retail traders and takes a long long time. not very practical again.

Bottom line is soon you will find that its really not worth trading 1hr and 4h or the Weekly because you will get stuck in the BE cycle at best.

Considering the nature of FOREX markets , Daily is the Ideal TF. Nothing has given better results so far at least for me.
  • #136,446
  • Aug 12, 2015 4:36am Aug 12, 2015 4:36am
Quoting zamfir
There have been many discussions on Timeframes. Let me share with you all my experiences with them. I have trading and tested all TF from 5/15/1h/2h/8h/16h..you name it. But i will share my experiences with the most common ones. 1H - you will need to really really pick the best ones as there will be many. So your strategy must consider this fact. Issue with this TF is you will miss many setups as you cannot watch the markets on all 3 sessions. So while its ok to trade stocks/futures on 1hr , its not very practical to trade FOREX on 1hr. Try trading...
Great post! Thanks for sharing your experience with various TFs, Zamfir.
  • #136,447
  • Aug 12, 2015 4:44am Aug 12, 2015 4:44am
Quoting mordin
There were beautiful pinbars on some EUR pairs, and yet they failed. Damn it. I can understand this one, as the FTA was near with perfect touches. {image} {image} Edit: I've been analyzing these trades, I think my fault was that I should have cancelled my orders as in the next candle were not picked up, momentum not strong. But I HOPED (bad thing) that it could go down as they were very pretty.
Hi Mordin,

Wanted to give you a short answer, but I am currently on vacation with poor access to internet, and a lot of hiking to do and even more family time to enjoy

Plus I took the time to further think about it, and there are a few things I'd like to mention. so im afraid it won't be such a short post...

First of all, I consider myself as pretty junior in trading. The only reason I would answer is that I have been in your shoes not so long ago. I understand the frustration to spot a setup you consider valid just to then see your account shrinking...

The very first thing I'd like to say is that by finding this thread you already are ahead of a lot of people. Now you have to use this thread to your advantage.

What helped me is the following. Go back to the basics. Spot PPZ areas on your chart. Fully understand the underlying principle of a support becoming resistance. Then add extra layer of confluence: price could not break this level because a lot of buy / sell orders were sitting on the other side of this psychological level (RN, Fib, TL, etc). Then price broke this level and retested it AND failed at going back on the other side.
Now that you described the level, add the price action setup keeping in mind what this bar says about price: a textbook pinbar should (read must) have a long nose that protrude away from price because it means it cleared orders on the other side of the level. It also should have a strong close which confirms who is in control.
A bullish PB which is red with the close below the PPZ level may very well mean that sell orders have been consumed BUT the overall market is still bearish => look for a wick play (check Mikes posts on that). Same for OB.
60minuteman said in substance in another thread that basically a candlestick is a battle between bullish and bearish sentiments. The high and low marks the limits of the battlefield, and the close (in relation to the O/H/L obviously) states who's the winner.

OK, now you have your level + your assumption on why price printed the PA at this location. Now you have to move to the next part of your trading: imagining what will happen on the right side of the bar.
The only things you have to "fill" this blank is what price did earlier. So you have to find the next areas of support and resistance. I plot them, and I wait and see how price reacts to these levels.

Now, what will you do with all these details? where will you enter? wher wil you put your SL? where is your target?

Remember James:
Quoting james16
YES!!! THIS IS CRITICAL. WE MUST LEARN TO: 1. notice a strong s/r area just beyond our pa if it exists. 2. know that if we trade into it we had better be prepared for a quick reversal that could give us a loss if we are not prepared. if we know its there we have several choices. 1. get out when it gets there for a small profit. 2. take a small partial profit and move the remainder to BE. 3. stay in with your total position hoping for a break and move your stop to BE. 4. Dont enter until the level has been broken. in the case we are looking at this...
And most importantly: what will you do if price goes against you?

OK, this is demo - or pocket change.
What would you do if this trade was meant to pay this month's bills? your GF/BF birthday present? your kids food? you see the point

Go back to post 1. Consider that "This thread is like a series of signposts in the RIGHT DIRECTION (To profitability ) Signposts constructed by people who have navigated the dangerous and inherently confusing jungle of forex before. I have only come to appreciate this recently, but each single line that is said by certain people in this thread, has literally hours of experience, backtesting and work behind it. To give it a seal of authority that only experience can give. . . "

And then do each of this signposts yours, and use them to slowly build your way of trading.

Oh, and also: don't listen to others. THey have great trading ideas but they are not mines. Mike is great but I will certainly not follow the ideas he shares in this thread. I did, and I lost - I'm not Mike

Take your time, it will eventually pays
Slow & steady
  • #136,448
  • Aug 12, 2015 5:06am Aug 12, 2015 5:06am
Quoting zamfir
D1 - This is the ideal TF for beginners or anyone trading FOREX for living. Probability is good and on average you should easily make 2000 pips a month without breaking a sweat on 28 pairs(majors+minors).
Agreed, i doubt i will ever trade some other TF than daily and few times h4 if things look good. Also tryed it all and i see no reason being glued
to the screen whole day just so i have a feeling ima real trader.
''Real trader'' in my book is a trader who makes money.

H4 Gold
Was a bit messy breakout almost took me out, looks good ''for now'' lol
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  • #136,449
  • Edited 6:42am Aug 12, 2015 5:33am | Edited 6:42am
AUD/USD entry on M5 PB. (not recommended to trade M5 PB's. It was purely for purposes of a low risk entry with tight S/L. D1 more reliable).

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EUR/AUD H1 DBHLC.

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GBP/JPY H1. Retrace on IB's.

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CAD/JPY H1 PB. BE.

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'Fail to plan, plan to fail'
  • #136,450
  • Aug 12, 2015 5:47am Aug 12, 2015 5:47am
Quoting zamfir
There have been many discussions on Timeframes. Let me share with you all my experiences with them. I have trading and tested all TF from 5/15/1h/2h/8h/16h..you name it. But i will share my experiences with the most common ones. 1H - you will need to really really pick the best ones as there will be many. So your strategy must consider this fact. Issue with this TF is you will miss many setups as you cannot watch the markets on all 3 sessions. So while its ok to trade stocks/futures on 1hr , its not very practical to trade FOREX on 1hr. Try trading...
Zamfir, before you took a lot of trades on 4h. Have you switched now completely to daily?
Market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
  • #136,451
  • Aug 12, 2015 6:30am Aug 12, 2015 6:30am
Quoting mordin
There were beautiful pinbars on some EUR pairs, and yet they failed. Damn it. I can understand this one, as the FTA was near with perfect touches. {image} {image} Edit: I've been analyzing these trades, I think my fault was that I should have cancelled my orders as in the next candle were not picked up, momentum not strong. But I HOPED (bad thing) that it could go down as they were very pretty.
You must learn to look to the LEFT -support/Resistance = that's why your Pins (not very big ones) failed. Good luck.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #136,452
  • Aug 12, 2015 7:28am Aug 12, 2015 7:28am
Quoting FXBat
{quote} Zamfir, before you took a lot of trades on 4h. Have you switched now completely to daily?
Yes, quite frankly i got tired of watching 4h. If i was making good pips on 4h i would have stayed on 4h. But its not that i have switched from 4h to daily. I used to trade both 4h AND daily. Now i just trade daily.
  • #136,453
  • Aug 12, 2015 7:42am Aug 12, 2015 7:42am
Quoting zamfir
{quote} Yes, quite frankly i got tired of watching 4h. If i was making good pips on 4h i would have stayed on 4h. But its not that i have switched from 4h to daily. I used to trade both 4h AND daily. Now i just trade daily.
Thanks for the information. Do you also watch/trade any other instruments? I saw that you were asking abut CFDs and stocks.
Had to be me. Someone else might have gotten it wrong.
  • #136,454
  • Aug 12, 2015 7:52am Aug 12, 2015 7:52am
Quoting mordin
{quote} Thanks for the information. Do you also watch/trade any other instruments? I saw that you were asking abut CFDs and stocks.
Yes, i trade stocks and commodity futures.
  • #136,455
  • Aug 12, 2015 8:16am Aug 12, 2015 8:16am
Quoting zamfir
{quote} Yes, i trade stocks and commodity futures.
Thanks again Zamfir. Do you also Trade futures and stocks on D1 only? On D1 stocks there are a lot of gaps.
There are also some futures they make crazy things too.
Had to be me. Someone else might have gotten it wrong.
  • #136,456
  • Aug 12, 2015 8:34am Aug 12, 2015 8:34am
Quoting mordin
There were beautiful pinbars on some EUR pairs, and yet they failed. Damn it. I can understand this one, as the FTA was near with perfect touches. {image} {image} Edit: I've been analyzing these trades, I think my fault was that I should have cancelled my orders as in the next candle were not picked up, momentum not strong. But I HOPED (bad thing) that it could go down as they were very pretty.
I posted this for M in his PF journal but these are good learning situations for new folks

Here was my answer

Hey M

I think you are getting overly fixated on just the bar setups verse the story. Be sure to check out yesterdays webinar I dive into some of your trades and I think it will help you start to build a story

If we look at eur/aud it's just a small pin in the middle of no where coming off a much larger move. When i see a bar like that I think weak buying or profit taking not that price should continue down.

If we look at eur/nzd price just broke out of a major resistance area . once again we have a large run up followed by a tiny pinbar. But you wuould be trading back into major previous resistance

So a good way to avoid this early on and even what I think most people should do is build your story first, find great locations THEN look for PA to confirm up your areas. Otherwise the market sget moving and you see a pinbar pop up and get excited.

The last thing is correlation. Both these pins occurred at the same time on a common pair EUR. So either both are probably going to work or not. It's essentially the same trade when you think about it
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  • #136,457
  • Aug 12, 2015 8:35am Aug 12, 2015 8:35am
Quoting oble
{quote} Very nice trade, Courtney! {quote} Hey Mike, regarding entry methods that I have read both here and J16's PA materials on the J16 Group, I understand that entering on the close is considered aggressive, but I'm more interested in the difference between entering on either the break of PA bar, or a retrace of the PA bar (such as Courtney's 50% retrace entry). Is the retrace entry the most conservative entry compared to the other two or did I get it the wrong way around? What are the pros and cons of either entries? The only ones I can think...
Hey Oble

Traditionally entering on a break is just confirming a bar. IE a pinbar is not valid until it breaks. But one is not more aggressive then the other.

The better way I like to teach it that each situation usually dictates what entry will make more sense. Sometimes that's a break, sometimes a close, sometimes a retracement.


Hope that helps
Mike
  • #136,458
  • Aug 12, 2015 8:40am Aug 12, 2015 8:40am
Quoting ziven78
{quote} {quote} Hi Mike, Would you consider this one as a pre-emptive BO? Close above TL and a bit of a pull back. (8H BUOB etc.) {image}
yep exactly Ziv

here was another similar trade I had on aud/usd

Short on the 4hr beob(not shown on this feed). I took a slight retrace to the previous pivot(the same one I used previously for a buy)

Before

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middle quickly moving stop

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After
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  • #136,459
  • Aug 12, 2015 8:50am Aug 12, 2015 8:50am
fast approaching major area on the dow
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  • #136,460
  • Aug 12, 2015 8:56am Aug 12, 2015 8:56am
Quoting mordin
{quote} Thanks again Zamfir. Do you also Trade futures and stocks on D1 only? On D1 stocks there are a lot of gaps. There are also some futures they make crazy things too.
I trade 1hr on stocks and commodity futures. Sometimes if i see a good setup on daily, i day trade on daily chart as well.

I don't hold positions overnight so no worries about gaps.
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