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The Really Useless Thread

  • #136,561
  • Aug 11, 2015 6:34am Aug 11, 2015 6:34am
Quoting sisse
{quote} hathor, hathor ... Let me update you the chart from the last conversation to see if things have visually change .... This was the last update here: {quote} {image} Since you haven't been tracking the same chart, here is the last update as for today: {image} Now let me ask you what has it changed based on this chart alone? I see your point but technically it looks extremely hard to reach those levels. The only option to validate your idea will be a drastic change in fundamentals short term that will imply a very dovish FED kicking can for...
hi sisse
could you explain support and resistance for eurusd & eurjpy?
  • #136,562
  • Aug 11, 2015 6:36am Aug 11, 2015 6:36am
I am in a real mess with this unpredicted flying up
  • #136,563
  • Aug 11, 2015 6:38am Aug 11, 2015 6:38am
who is agree with this?

Pivot: 1.0955

Most Likely Scenario: Long positions above 1.0955 with targets @ 1.108 & 1.1115 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 1.0955 look for further downside with 1.092 & 1.088 as targets.

Comment: The RSI is well directed.
Attached Image
  • #136,564
  • Aug 11, 2015 7:11am Aug 11, 2015 7:11am
Quoting MoEb
who is agree with this? Pivot: 1.0955 Most Likely Scenario: Long positions above 1.0955 with targets @ 1.108 & 1.1115 in extension. Alternative scenario: Below 1.0955 look for further downside with 1.092 & 1.088 as targets. Comment: The RSI is well directed. {image}
Considering the actual situation on stock markets, I believe that the daily target for the EURUSD may be 1.1085.
Especially when this level will be reached concurrently with the DAX @11338
The best thing that can happen to you is to find out where you're wrong.
  • #136,565
  • Aug 11, 2015 7:34am Aug 11, 2015 7:34am
Good numbers keep coming from the US but more importantly we keep getting early print of higher than expected inflation numbers in all preliminary indicators. The FED is running of ways to hide ... Gold reacting quickly on the back of the headlines...

Expecting NY to react sharply intraday on the opening range ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,566
  • Aug 11, 2015 8:14am Aug 11, 2015 8:14am
Quoting sisse
Good numbers keep coming from the US but more importantly we keep getting early print of higher than expected inflation numbers in all preliminary indicators. The FED is running of ways to hide ... Gold reacting quickly on the back of the headlines... Expecting NY to react sharply intraday on the opening range ... sisse
dxy flirting with the downside tick by tick ... euro rallies getting more agressive after bear moves... patience is a virtue but it doesnt last forever ... am about to turn flat til end of summer if us$ keep disappointing short term
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #136,567
  • Aug 11, 2015 8:17am Aug 11, 2015 8:17am
Quoting sisse
Good numbers keep coming from the US but more importantly we keep getting early print of higher than expected inflation numbers in all preliminary indicators. The FED is running of ways to hide ... Gold reacting quickly on the back of the headlines... Expecting NY to react sharply intraday on the opening range ... sisse
Good numbers? I think I missed something Sisse. They revised the prior unit labor costs number from Q1 from 6.7 to 2.3. Then Q2 came out at 0.5%. I thought that was bad. Sure, it's still inflation, but less than expected given the prior revision. If you wouldn't mind explaining why you still see this as a good number....................On the other hand, I'm still looking at this as just a temporary stall on the road to rate rising, which still looks to me to be in September.
defense wins championships
  • #136,568
  • Aug 11, 2015 8:33am Aug 11, 2015 8:33am
Quoting seemoore
{quote} Good numbers? I think I missed something Sisse. They revised the prior unit labor costs number from Q1 from 6.7 to 2.3. Then Q2 came out at 0.5%. I thought that was bad. Sure, it's still inflation, but less than expected given the prior revision. If you wouldn't mind explaining why you still see this as a good number....................On the other hand, I'm still looking at this as just a temporary stall on the road to rate rising, which still looks to me to be in September.
???.... Labour cost up ---> Productivity went down === meaning wage went up ---> transfer to consumer prices ---> inflation up ---> hawkish for rates.

In any case 1.108x tested right on time for NY. Raging bulls in the last few sessions and +250 ticks move up in a very yummy leg. Very well done to all that rode it !!!.

NY with the upper hand to kill the day in the opening session...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,569
  • Aug 11, 2015 8:33am Aug 11, 2015 8:33am
Quoting sisse
{quote}Now let me ask you what has it changed based on this chart alone?
Let me think about it...


Something else:

In my humble/childish opinion:
'What you see in the chart in a specific moment is actually the future.'
So heading up before September means there will be no hike. When this information gets out from the inner circle and everybody will be buying, the price will fall back to retest breakout points.
If there will be a hike in September, than price should fall in August and retest the breakout points (heading up), when confirmation of hike will be released to the 'mass'.
Just like UK elections....the move already happened before releasing the final data.
August will answer the hike question.
Always expect the unexpected.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #136,570
  • Aug 11, 2015 8:41am Aug 11, 2015 8:41am
Quoting sisse
{quote} ???.... Labour cost up ---> Productivity went down === meaning wage went up ---> transfer to consumer prices ---> inflation up ---> hawkish for rates. In any case 1.108x tested right on time for NY. Raging bulls in the last few sessions and +250 ticks move up in a very yummy leg. Very well done to all that rode it !!!. NY with the upper hand to kill the day in the opening session... sisse
OK. I guess I was looking at them as being below expectations. Thank you for the quick response!
defense wins championships
  • #136,571
  • Aug 11, 2015 8:43am Aug 11, 2015 8:43am
Quoting hathor
{quote} Let me think about it... Something else: In my humble/childish opinion: 'What you see in the chart in a specific moment is actually the future.' So heading up before September means there will be no hike. When this information gets out from the inner circle and everybody will be buying, the price will fall back to retest breakout points. If there will be a hike in September, than price should fall in August and retest the breakout points (heading up), when confirmation of hike will be released to the 'mass'. Just like UK elections....the...
I see your point but we are not trading a ONE off event. We are talking about a series of hikes until normalisation that may take a couple of years to finish. The play is not if we are going to have hikes (because we are) but how many we are going to have this year (1 or 2) and how gradual they will be in the mid term (until Q1/Q2 2016).

So this time its a bit more complex that just riding the initial knee jerk reaction of a news play when its announced but real money position for a major mid term leg and that wont be as linear and simple as you mention...

we'll see in a few but for now its just usual thin summer markets ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,572
  • Aug 11, 2015 9:27am Aug 11, 2015 9:27am
Quoting Likerty
{quote} After reaction to NFP release, Gold is set to turn down again to make a LL. If it will bounce back after few $, an upside play for 111x will renew again.. Continuation downwards will put: 1020's, 940's, 850's in view Euro have 860's as a key level and until it sits above - long scenarios in play.
next key area to sort out sits right at the bottom - 1068/70, which acts right now as min bear target. Continuation further will put 102x in view.
69
  • #136,573
  • Aug 11, 2015 12:14pm Aug 11, 2015 12:14pm
Quoting Likerty
{quote} next key area to sort out sits right at the bottom - 1068/70, which acts right now as min bear target. Continuation further will put 102x in view.
Excellent call mate... and welcome on board in GOLD....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,574
  • Aug 11, 2015 1:44pm Aug 11, 2015 1:44pm
Dollar tested 96.90 (shy of 1.1096 on the pair.) which is also roughly the bottom of the bullish price channel on the daily TF. It looks very well aligned from that TF up but Fridays NFP hasn't proven to be the catalyst to take the highs as yet, and we're running out those before the decisive FED.

For the time being all eyes on retaking 97.20. I'm sure quite a few people tracking this thread have loaded/reloaded on this decent intraday retracement so let's see how it goes.
  • #136,575
  • Aug 11, 2015 2:36pm Aug 11, 2015 2:36pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Excellent call mate... and welcome on board in GOLD.... sisse
Hi Sisse,

Any thoughts on how the Chinese move to weaken the Yuan last night might affect the USD? Or equities?
Currencies "linked" and synced" to China were very much affected today.
Some major TA moves in all these far east pairs HKD,CNH,KRW AUD, etc.. (Some spectacular charts)

Do you reckon this will have any major medium or long term affects on the markets?

Thanks for your input

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  • #136,576
  • Aug 11, 2015 8:17pm Aug 11, 2015 8:17pm
Quoting Likerty
{quote} next key area to sort out sits right at the bottom - 1068/70, which acts right now as min bear target. Continuation further will put 102x in view.
Personally I'm sitting on my hands until 114x in Gold (which coincides nicely with the 50% fib) before a major leg down to test sub 1000 which should be defended heavily.
  • #136,577
  • Aug 12, 2015 3:09am Aug 12, 2015 3:09am
Quoting PIP Lover
{quote} Hi Sisse, Any thoughts on how the Chinese move to weaken the Yuan last night might affect the USD? Or equities? Currencies "linked" and synced" to China were very much affected today. Some major TA moves in all these far east pairs HKD,CNH,KRW AUD, etc.. (Some spectacular charts) Do you reckon this will have any major medium or long term affects on the markets? Thanks for your input {image}
Well China is crumbling in front of our eyes. I underestimated the short term extend of the problem but its ruling markets across the world. Equities triggered risk off for the first time in a while with the European Opening. All markets are in retreat as the numbers from China (even the official ones) are bad very bad.

On top, the sharp devaluation of the yuan is sending shockwaves across the currency board. GOLD got hit in both fronts while commodities are holding on the brink for a major risk leg.

In my case, I just cleared all remaining gold positions manually and last short term euro remaining postion (the break up on the London opening range unlocked 1.114x and the extension 1.128x). Leaving untouched shorts in US equites and OIL.

Tracking very closely all markets...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,578
  • Edited 6:30am Aug 12, 2015 6:00am | Edited 6:30am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Well China is crumbling in front of our eyes. I underestimated the short term extend of the problem but its ruling markets across the world. Equities triggered risk off for the first time in a while with the European Opening. All markets are in retreat as the numbers from China (even the official ones) are bad very bad. On top, the sharp devaluation of the yuan is sending shockwaves across the currency board. GOLD got hit in both fronts while commodities are holding on the brink for a major risk leg. In my case, I just cleared all...
Just wondering Sisse, is there any inherent logic to the shock waves? Cuz on the first view - devaluation of yuan = stronger dollar(at least in this direction) but the overall reaction is depreciation of dollar across almost all pairs, which does not make intuitivelly sense. It would be understandable just in case of JPY or CHF as there is some risk off play as you mention = demand for JPY and CHF. But what about EUR for example (plus given the fact that USD is safe heaven asset as well)?

Maybe due to markets implications of the PBOC decisions on FED? However, It seems hard to judge right now what FED thinks about it - I bet they are having hard times with China too Im thinking that this pullback in dollar may be nice opportunity to long dollar (of course, tricky when - if it breaks 96.3X - 96.5 on DXY we may go much more south) since nothing fundamentally changes for the US economy (=) for the hikes) - at least for now if the situation does not get much worse (or is to so bad already?).

Thank you
  • #136,579
  • Aug 12, 2015 7:50am Aug 12, 2015 7:50am
Well, I had to fold everything on E/U from 1.1096 including tentative new entries around yesterdays highs. No excuses, a clean loss on those fresh entries.

Still tracking closely for the breakback, but this daily candle has severely misaligned the dollar charts especially on that TF and especially if it closes near the lows. We keep shifting: now 96.00 in play from DXY at support. 96.9/97 the level to track to retake and begin to stop the bleeding. Well done to the bulls; I saw them but I underestimated their strength, and maybe should have taken 1.098 being broken back as a stronger warning signal.

Where are the flows coming from? Repatriation flows in my book. The euro coming home temporarily before it shifts into other assets on the back of China aggressively
devaluing its currency while the latter weighs on expectations for the timing of FED rate hikes; so a combination of dollar weakness and euro strength.
  • #136,580
  • Aug 12, 2015 9:46am Aug 12, 2015 9:46am
Quoting chester123
{quote} Just wondering Sisse, is there any inherent logic to the shock waves? Cuz on the first view - devaluation of yuan = stronger dollar(at least in this direction) but the overall reaction is depreciation of dollar across almost all pairs, which does not make intuitivelly sense. It would be understandable just in case of J
Super active day in the markets. Check S&P losing floor (2055.xx) after Europe goes home as that one is the one that will open pandoras box.

On your comments, well the reaction is only short term via risk off. None of the macro mid term levels across the board is under threat yet. Basically it was a selloff in European equites via risk first making the simple direct effect of cashing equites for euros and obviously Gold started to pick up but mainly via CHINA QE/devaluation and risk. Now after the opening range US equities followed through...

If China problems end up in a full blown up crisis things may change but for now all eyes in equities holding.

On the euro, as expected after losing 1.108x in the morning, a test to 1.114x completed with lots of air at these levels. More importantly, 1.128x unlocked one more time this year. If US Equities hold the attack, tracking 1.114x for the roll....otherwise a test of major 1.128x will be imminent.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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