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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #29,001
  • Aug 10, 2015 2:06pm Aug 10, 2015 2:06pm

August 10th, 2015:EUR/USD: 16:00 Candle Close


The foundation of the success of this trade is with respect to the .pdf document I have posted above. There is no magic about it! When analysis is properly done with respect to higher time frames, and well narrowed down to smaller time frame, one will find it very easy to take trades, because everything (the whole facts) will just be in front of you...watching and asking to pull the trigger.


It seems many currencies are heading north. Lots of opportunities in the market, for me, EurJpy, EurUsd, the one I have posted, AudUsd, XauUsd, NzdUsd, etc...


Hope this whole information bless those who read them.


Happy trading....

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  • #29,002
  • Aug 11, 2015 12:22am Aug 11, 2015 12:22am
Quoting naustingfx
{quote} NON-FARM PAY ROLL NEWS ANNOUNCEMENT TRADE EUR/USD: FRIDAY: AUGUST 7TH 2015 1 Hour Early ENTRY Technique/Strategy Stoploss = 19pips Take profit = 100pips I have taken hours since weekend to put up a detailed explanation to answer a QUESTION raised from one of the traders here (nic73). His openness and strong desire to be successful I think was part of what drove me to go extra miles extensively in putting up this document below. I have complied comprehensively charts from the weekly time frame to the 15min time frame to show my approach to...
Yup I understand your analysis. Pretty much like what Philip said we could analysis from higher down to lower time frame. Your PDF gave me further insight doing just that. I also realise I need to be consistent with my analysis i.e. insert the trend lines, observe the MA behavior which could prevent price from moving further etc.

I have done an analysis on AUDNZD please see post below and tell me how I have performed. Thanks
  • #29,003
  • Aug 11, 2015 12:41am Aug 11, 2015 12:41am
AUDNZD anticipation 11th August 2015

I have mixed feeling about this pair. By just glancing at it I thought it was going to move further downwards. But having analyzed it in depth I thought to sell pair could put my capital into a lot more risk. Here is how I see the pair:

1. There are 2 trend lines drawn from the H4 chart and Daily chart. The 2 trendlines intersected each other.
2. I inserted the fibonacci lines and price is reacting at between 23.6% and 38.2% for some time how. (provided the FB are drawn correctly, I am not exactly familiar with FB).
3. H1 chart, price moved away from 21ema to south and 200sma is not far away which could stop the price from going further south.
3. Items in point 1 and 2 above and 200sma (blue MA) met one another at one point in the H4 chart. Price is reacting at this point i.e. ranging or consolidating. Now sure of the direction.
4. Both 21 ema and 89 ema are looking flat. So price could just go side way.
5. Zero turn around look like happening on MACD on H4 but MACD in general looks weak.

I think given the analysis above, chances is that price might go up north. Chances of this happening could be higher than for price to go south.

This is my analysis. I could be wrong. Please give me your honest opinion.

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  • #29,004
  • Aug 11, 2015 1:15am Aug 11, 2015 1:15am
USDCAD 11 August 2015

Please see analysis within chart. I think this could could up north and bearing in mind that there looks like a divergence in H4 and daily time frame. Value your feedback on this. Tx.

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  • #29,005
  • Edited 2:10am Aug 11, 2015 1:56am | Edited 2:10am
Quoting nic73
AUDNZD anticipation 11th August 2015 I have mixed feeling about this pair. By just glancing at it I thought it was going to move further downwards. But having analyzed it in depth I thought to sell pair could put my capital into a lot more risk. Here is how I see the pair: 1. There are 2 trend lines drawn from the H4 chart and Daily chart. The 2 trendlines intersected each other. 2. I inserted the fibonacci lines and price is reacting at between 23.6% and 38.2% for some time how. (provided the FB are drawn correctly, I am not exactly familiar with...

3 Little Sister


Already we missed the very nice first entry opportunity at point C. We are now looking for a 2nd entry opportunity to the south. I have put in what for me are the necessary trend lines...and I am watching to see how things play out in the future...what I like is that STRONG bearish candle (the vertical red line) and the TC following it on the MACD...that behavior is always an indication of a very strong move to the south...I normally like taking such nice candle...but I am respecting those two "guys" (the swing trend line and the 200sma) kissing or intersecting each other just exactly at the close of that nice bearish candle...that is just what has made me to hold on

That very point where they intersect is exactly the 1st take profit level for the trade taken at point C. For me, I do not really like taking trades at a place which should have been an exit level. From past experience, that is where price always turns around...

For the 1st trade at point C:
stop loss = 38pips
take profit = 112pips

You see! For those who took the 1st trade, they are already 112pips to the south, and if I did that, I will never be thinking to still take a 2nd trade at that point. Instead, I will wait for a break out from that level, then when price pulls back to them (swing trend line and or 200sma) and begins to move away, I will look for how to get involved with a very nice stop loss...at such stages one can switch to 1hr or even lower time frames (if you have learned how to do that) to look for nice entry opportunities and for sure smaller stop losses...

Hope this helps!

Happy trading!
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  • #29,006
  • Aug 11, 2015 2:01am Aug 11, 2015 2:01am
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  • #29,007
  • Edited 2:33am Aug 11, 2015 2:28am | Edited 2:33am
Quoting nic73
USDCAD 11 August 2015 Please see analysis within chart. I think this could could up north and bearing in mind that there looks like a divergence in H4 and daily time frame. Value your feedback on this. Tx. {image}
Good Insight.

I have currently 7 currencies opened and I am watching...the USDCAD is not among them and I tried to open it now, but my meta4 trading platform is like freezing (just stand-still and mouse cursor not even moving). So I cannot access the chart now...but like I said in one of my posts...I have stipulated entry setups/patterns that I am looking for, and once I open my chart, I begin to scan for them...once they are there, then I will do further analysis to see if there is anything that could hinder the move, and if there is nothing, then I will jump in...this approach saves me a lot of time and the stress of intensive analysis

Just few trades in a month will leave you with thousands of dollars per month when you begin to trade a standard account....for example the Non-farm Pay Roll trade which I posted earlier...you see how 19pips stop loss trade gave us 100pips gain...for a standard account it implies a stop loss of 190pips and a gain of $1000 (a thousand dollars)...and from my personal experience, there are many many places in the market where you can have such returns with minimal stop losses...but the issue is that many traders want to go through the whole process of intensive learning before they now settle for what really matters....I did that too and for sure blew my accounts a few times...my head is cool now. Thanks to God!!!
  • #29,008
  • Aug 11, 2015 5:03am Aug 11, 2015 5:03am
Hi Nausting,

Watching AUDNZD. At the same time I am in the USDCAD trade now. Making nice 30pips and has reached 89sma. Waiting to see if price will breach 89sma again, up north. Target is 21ema. Sorry I could not present you with a chart for now.

Also about trading when price is moving away from 21ema - the chances of success is a lot more higher if price in the 1-hour time frame is at the same time moving away from 21ema. Or even better if t has completely pulback to 89sma and move away. Do you agree with this? This is from observation by backtesting from EURUSD and AUDUSD.
  • #29,009
  • Aug 11, 2015 9:39am Aug 11, 2015 9:39am
USDCAD update:

Stopped out at break even. Was making some 30 odd pips gain and set SL to entry.
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  • #29,010
  • Aug 11, 2015 12:31pm Aug 11, 2015 12:31pm
Quoting naustingfx
{quote} NON-FARM PAY ROLL NEWS ANNOUNCEMENT TRADE EUR/USD: FRIDAY: AUGUST 7TH 2015 1 Hour Early ENTRY Technique/Strategy Stoploss = 19pips Take profit = 100pips I have taken hours since weekend to put up a detailed explanation to answer a QUESTION raised from one of the traders here (nic73). His openness and strong desire to be successful I think was part of what drove me to go extra miles extensively in putting up this document below. I have complied comprehensively charts from the weekly time frame to the 15min time frame to show my approach to...
As for stop loss, is that determined base on the H1 chart, since you set the entry base on that time frame?
  • #29,011
  • Aug 11, 2015 4:18pm Aug 11, 2015 4:18pm
Quoting nic73
Hi Nausting, Watching AUDNZD. At the same time I am in the USDCAD trade now. Making nice 30pips and has reached 89sma. Waiting to see if price will breach 89sma again, up north. Target is 21ema. Sorry I could not present you with a chart for now. Also about trading when price is moving away from 21ema - the chances of success is a lot more higher if price in the 1-hour time frame is at the same time moving away from 21ema. Or even better if t has completely pulback to 89sma and move away. Do you agree with...
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VERY NICE OBSERVATION:


I have a strategy that I have built upon that observation.

I made the same observation around the middle period from the time I began using the 4Hour MACD System. If you only focus on that, you will also make good pips per month...But like you said, it has to be backtested extensively if you want to start using it as a separate strategy, the way I do it...

I was even searching my computer to post some few examples of trades I took based on that (I have an archive for that)...I also have a filter to it... I think I have up to 70% to 80% success using it with a combination of some other few things I look at by which I filter the ones that may not likely work out.

That is a nice observation...if you have more of other nice observation from your experience so far, you can just get a book and a pen and list them out. Then do the necessary backtesting and live testing and see if it can give you that healthy amount you want to draw from this business per month. Once it meets up to your target or goal...I advice you reduce the too much stress of trying to go through the whole process of learning it all which many trades do maybe due to the passion they have for FOREX TRADING... Then you can boldly go live trading...this will make your learning period shorter and brief, and you will start to make money earlier.

God bless!
  • #29,012
  • Aug 11, 2015 4:26pm Aug 11, 2015 4:26pm
Quoting nic73
USDCAD update: Stopped out at break even. Was making some 30 odd pips gain and set SL to entry. {image}
...I like that entry level. That is the kind of concept I use many times. It makes stop loss small and return big.

Happy trading.
  • #29,013
  • Aug 11, 2015 6:48pm Aug 11, 2015 6:48pm
Quoting naustingfx
{quote}[/b][/color][/font][/size] VERY NICE OBSERVATION: I have a strategy that I have built upon that observation. I made the same observation around the middle period from the time I began using the 4Hour MACD System. If you only focus on that, you will also make good pips per month...But like you said, it has to be backtested extensively if you want to start using it as a separate strategy, the way I do it... I was even searching my computer to post some few examples of trades I took based on that (I have an archive for that)...I also have a...
I trade the above with 4hr MACD strategy. Nothing new, nothing of my own. When price looks moving away from 21ema after a pull back, on the 4-hour time frame, I then move to the 1-hour time frame and see if price is at the same time moving away from 89sma or 21ema. Backtests results shows that such move has better chances of profit.

As mentioned in earlier post, I agree with mastering 2 setups. Presently concentrating on move away from 21ema and sHs. sHs one that a trader from this forum has shared. The scalping method is the 3rd one I would like to master in time to come. So keep posting and I am reading and learning from you.

Your post 29001 is a good one, and one that helped to understand scalping. By the way, perhaps you have missed some question on the posts above. On scalping method, does one set stop loss on 1-hour time frame if trade take was from 1-hour? And on USDCAD where my trade was stop out after setting SL at entry after price has move 20-30 pips so that should the market turn around and going against me, I would have been stop out at a breakeven.. Give me your insight how you would handle this. Is stop loss readjust too early that I was stop out? Market actually went towards my direction for 100pips after I was stop out. Tx
  • #29,014
  • Aug 12, 2015 3:36am Aug 12, 2015 3:36am
Nausting, about AUDNZD how would you move on from 89sma?

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  • #29,015
  • Edited 5:11pm Aug 12, 2015 5:07pm | Edited 5:11pm
Quoting nic73
Nausting, about AUDNZD how would you move on from 89sma? {image}
Hi
It is well!

I did not trade today....I have been off for some meetings and did not follow up things on the market to take trades.
Even as I type this reply now, my chart is not open...sleeping time is close and I do not want to go to chart now...It may keep me up to very late hours of the night...It's just an hour to midnight as I type now...

Besides, from your chart above and with reference to the one I have shown above too on this very pair (AUDNZD), the first target has been hit (Fibo 50%), the 2nd target should be the 61.8% level if things work as anticipated...yes, it can still continue to the south even after that...but I may need to re-analyze to confirm that...you know that as price moves, traders keep analyzing and re-analyzing to ensure that the path/road is clear for the fulfillment of their targets...

To continue to the south, the same approach I believe still holds; a break of that level (89 and or the dotted trend line) you have added there in your chart, the bottom yellow dotted trend line, then a pull back to it and moving away is the entry target area...

God bless
  • #29,016
  • Edited 5:33pm Aug 12, 2015 5:31pm | Edited 5:33pm
Quoting nic73
USDCAD update: Stopped out at break even. Was making some 30 odd pips gain and set SL to entry. {image}

ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS:


nic73: By the way, perhaps you have missed some question on the posts above. On scalping method, does one set stop loss on 1-hour time frame if trade take was from 1-hour?

naustingfx: Not really...Stop losses are generally set in the following ways:

  1. some pips away from most recent swing point
  2. some pips away from a certain resistance/support level as the case may be
  3. some pips away from certain moving averages, like above/below 21 or 200, etc
  4. some pips away from certain trend lines (long or short term trend lines)
  5. some pips away from a certain psych level or big numbers....etc

I set stop losses based on insight obtained from my overall analysis. Like the Non-Farm Pay Roll trade example, you will see that in that 15Min chart, my stop loss was set some pips away from that DAILY trend line running through the 15min chart.

nic73: And on USDCAD where my trade was stop out after setting SL at entry after price has move 20-30 pips so that should the market turn around and going against me, I would have been stop out at a breakeven.. Give me your insight how you would handle this?

naustingfx: Normally, I take 2 trades at a time, and when price moves that 20-30 pips, I will take my 1st profit at that if that is what my plan says, and I may not necessarily set the 2nd position to BE but will allow it to run at initial stop loss or I may reduce the stop loss a little (previous chart that I have posted showed that too) according to plan where necessary...so if I am taken out of the trade, I will not loose money...rather my overall result will balance things up for me as I have already taken partial profit...(this is Phillip's concept, raw...)

nic73: ...stop loss readjust too early that I was stop out? Market actually went towards my direction for 100pips after I was stop out.

naustingfx: ...and that would not have happened to you right??

These are the few question I spotted from your posts...I hope my feed back helps.

Happy trading!

  • #29,017
  • Aug 13, 2015 12:05am Aug 13, 2015 12:05am
Hi Nausting, saw your replies and read them. Thank you for answering.
  • #29,018
  • Aug 13, 2015 1:27am Aug 13, 2015 1:27am
EURUSD

Having a very tough week after some successful weeks in first 3 weeks of July. Then trading results started to plunge. Charts and everything suddenly look very complicated, very difficult to analysis. Don't know how many traders go through this but it happens to me quite often. Anyway, I have EURUSD here, do have a look if you are interested.

I think EURUSD is likely to sell to 21ema. It's a counter trend.

Price rejected upper trendline 2-3 times. 2 previous candles closed lower with a inverted tail / spike, after pulling back to to trendline. Expecting price to pull back to 21ema which is the targetted profit.

There are two trendlines in the chart, it's not the upper and lower trendlines if you take a closer look. The trendline below was formed first, then price broke the it and went higher north forming the trendline above. The trendline below happen to intersect or very near 200sma and 21ema. Thus, anticipation after price pulled back to 21ema is that it could much likely bounce / move away from it going up north. I think probability of this happen is pretty high given that 2 moving average and one trendline is so close to each other. Hope my analysis make sense.
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  • #29,019
  • Aug 13, 2015 1:00pm Aug 13, 2015 1:00pm
Quoting nic73
EURUSD Having a very tough week after some successful weeks in first 3 weeks of July. Then trading results started to plunge. Charts and everything suddenly look very complicated, very difficult to analysis. Don't know how many traders go through this but it happens to me quite often. Anyway, I have EURUSD here, do have a look if you are interested. I think EURUSD is likely to sell to 21ema. It's a counter trend. Price rejected upper trendline 2-3 times. 2 previous candles closed lower with a inverted tail / spike, after pulling back to to trendline....
Beauty!

That is a professional approach to trading. Every thing was in agreement (confluence) naturally. The facts are there speaking for its self, then you were able to see it all and put them down in words...this is exactly how our chart (price movement, candle patterns, trend lines, moving averages, etc) speak to us always.
Once you understand the language and put it in words or in writing and read it aloud in your heart, you build confidence in your soul and (maybe) you see yourself trading like a robot per say (that it, clicking the mouse button to execute a deal just because the rules have been met and with no emotional attachment).

You see how the whole analysis went smoothly and there were no uncertainties to it. That is the kind of places (and mind set) at which trades are taken successfully.

I encourage you to take note of the inner feeling you normally have after analyzing and executing a trade, over time you will be able to build up your instinct (abstract mind) and you will notice that in the future, after just looking through your chart, your instinct alone can tell you exactly where to trade and when to do that...it becomes your personal discretion (psych man) and filtering strategy...such that when you take a trade, and your inner person (psych man) begins to get worried, you just have to have another look to your trade and can close it and wait for another opportunity...even if the trade later became successful, it does not matter....that trade maybe just one winner out of multiple losers detected just by your instinct...

I hope the information I have conveyed makes sense to you.

God bless
  • #29,020
  • Aug 13, 2015 1:02pm Aug 13, 2015 1:02pm
Quoting naustingfx
{quote} Beauty! That is a professional approach to trading. Every thing was in agreement (confluence) naturally. The facts are there speaking for its self, then you were able to see it all and put them down in words...this is exactly how our chart (price movement, candle patterns, trend lines, moving averages, etc) speak to us always. Once you understand the language and put it in words or in writing and read it aloud in your heart, you build confidence in your soul and (maybe) you see yourself trading like a robot per say (that it, clicking the...
I did not care to upload a char because the profit target has already been filled even before typing this message.

Happy trading.
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