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  • #10,021
  • Aug 10, 2015 5:02pm Aug 10, 2015 5:02pm
I think Sept is the liftoff, but it would not surprise me if they did just a 10 bps hike. The staff leak that made the news a couple weeks back contained a projection of 35 bps in hikes by the end of the year - that'd plausibly be 10 in Sept & maybe 25 in Dec. Although, I'm not sure it matters all that much.... Anyway, at what point does it get priced in already? omg you could have died of old age waiting on them...
Inserted Video
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,022
  • Aug 10, 2015 5:08pm Aug 10, 2015 5:08pm
Quoting The Fool
I think Sept is the liftoff, but it would not surprise me if they did just a 10 bps hike. The staff leak that made the news a couple weeks back contained a projection of 35 bps in hikes by the end of the year - that'd plausibly be 10 in Sept & maybe 25 in Dec. Although, I'm not sure it matters all that much.... Anyway, at what point does it get priced in already? omg you could have died of old age waiting on them... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=An2a1_Do_fc
LOL, quite.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #10,023
  • Aug 10, 2015 5:38pm Aug 10, 2015 5:38pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
To a long USO @ 14.60 from last week, I've added a 15P/15C Jan 16 straddle for 2.93. I've done this in a second account that I've set up recently in IB which is intended to be a "conservative" account for wealth preservation and slow gains. The payoff looks very reasonable to me. The only downside is that it's a very slow way of making a small amount of money but this trading account is supposed to be a supercharged bank account rather than a get-rich-quick account so I'll just have to get used to it: {image}
I'm going to try for basically the same thing in UNG tomorrow ... . 13.5/13.5, but 45 DTE and most likely in a weekly, since I need those 1/2 strikes ... . The Market Measures segment on short straddles says it's best to take these off at 25% profit ... . I may toy with that ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,024
  • Aug 10, 2015 5:39pm Aug 10, 2015 5:39pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Seeing that /ES and /NQ are up a bit, going a little farther out with SPY and DIA IC's to try and catch vol before it bleeds out: Sep 30 SPY 187/190/215/218 IC for .68 and Sep 30 DIA 155/158/180/183 IC for .65 credit. Will try to grab setups in that Sep 25 Weekly expiry once the put side gels up with SPY (need .50 strikes below 195) and DIA (need .50 strikes below 165). Still waiting for a vol pop in FXE to go laddered short call verts ... .
Whoa ... . All those IC's filled ... . Doesn't usually happen that way, but now they're on ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,025
  • Aug 10, 2015 5:41pm Aug 10, 2015 5:41pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} /CL down at $43.5x and that will put a cloud over US equities if it keeps going. I am sitting on a bunch of those SPY Sept5 bear call verts - 214/217, 215/218, and 216/219. I almost closed the $216's last week when they dipped below 50%, but I though I might get a little more. If I am gonna do a $3 spread I want at least 6 bits...the best of the sets mentioned was 84c I think. I don't mind waiting & have plenty dry powder in some accounts to do more, will be looking for SPY to make some northside headway again in August, but will wait to...
Well, we got $210 ... . Gonna eye some more short call verts north of that YTD high ... . Can't believe we're there again, but I'll take it ... in spades.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,026
  • Aug 10, 2015 5:49pm Aug 10, 2015 5:49pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} There are real structural changes in the industry that have come and will continue. There are lots of overleveraged oil companies hanging on but if wti stays down at $40 +/- for too long, many are going to die, bk, and default. There will be knock-on effects in the high yield (junk) market. I am looking at short JNK as shown above. Meanwhile, I was watching for a run up for fiber on good Eurozone/Greece news and risk appetites, but one must wonder where that will turn? If the fickle Fed stays the course....
Got a little bit of bullishness in EURUSD ... . I'm kind of having a hard time of when to go short FXE; the FXE chart is a broken up chop fest. EURUSD is cleaner; I'd like to see 1.12 in EURUSD, but not sure we're gonna get there.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,027
  • Aug 10, 2015 5:55pm Aug 10, 2015 5:55pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Well, we got $210 ... . Gonna eye some more short call verts north of that YTD high ... . Can't believe we're there again, but I'll take it ... in spades.
TF -- You might be right about playing it a little patient here ... . We're quite close to 211 ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,028
  • Aug 10, 2015 5:57pm Aug 10, 2015 5:57pm
Quoting The Fool
I think Sept is the liftoff, but it would not surprise me if they did just a 10 bps hike. The staff leak that made the news a couple weeks back contained a projection of 35 bps in hikes by the end of the year - that'd plausibly be 10 in Sept & maybe 25 in Dec. Although, I'm not sure it matters all that much.... Anyway, at what point does it get priced in already? omg you could have died of old age waiting on them... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=An2a1_Do_fc
I'm pretty sure I had that on vinyl, along with a bunch of CSNY or just CSN (no Young) ... . I think that qualifies me as a geezer ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,029
  • Aug 10, 2015 6:10pm Aug 10, 2015 6:10pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} TF -- You might be right about playing it a little patient here ... . We're quite close to 211 ... .
yup August sposed to be a lean month but if we get persistent relief on oil, a Greece deal gets done, etc, we might see equities make another ath run. Patience. If I can get in late Sept $215 or $216 short from $212-213, it'd pay well and I'm still thinking holding thru the Sept FOMC will be a winner for short calls.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,030
  • Aug 10, 2015 6:10pm Aug 10, 2015 6:10pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} I'm going to try for basically the same thing in UNG tomorrow ... . 13.5/13.5, but 45 DTE and most likely in a weekly, since I need those 1/2 strikes ... . The Market Measures segment on short straddles says it's best to take these off at 25% profit ... . I may toy with that ... .
Sounds like a good plan Z. I might look at it myself.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #10,031
  • Aug 10, 2015 6:16pm Aug 10, 2015 6:16pm
TLT dropped a bit today, but no accompanying volatility, so still waiting to add a position there ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,032
  • Aug 10, 2015 6:17pm Aug 10, 2015 6:17pm
Just thought I'd post this:

http://www.investing.com/analysis/an...mminent-261165

I see that the SPX closed above teh 20wk ma and 20dma today.
If we get continuation i.e. another good push tomorrow, I will be watching (at least try to remember to check) to see if the NYSE Comp can take out the prior high.
Also I don't have any experience with this "selling on strength" thing in the wsj so I'm interested to see how well (or not) it works as another tool in the old box of tricks.
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I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #10,033
  • Aug 10, 2015 6:23pm Aug 10, 2015 6:23pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} yup August sposed to be a lean month but if we get persistent relief on oil, a Greece deal gets done, etc, we might see equities make another ath run. Patience. If I can get in late Sept $215 or $216 short from $212-213, it'd pay well and I'm still thinking holding thru the Sept FOMC will be a winner for short calls.
But it's the old, "don't wanna wait too long game ... ," so I may put on a little bit now and save some pow for later in case it drives back toward the ATH's ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,034
  • Aug 10, 2015 6:29pm Aug 10, 2015 6:29pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
Just thought I'd post this: http://www.investing.com/analysis/an...mminent-261165 I see that the SPX closed above teh 20wk ma and 20dma today. If we get continuation i.e. another good push tomorrow, I will be watching (at least try to remember to check) to see if the NYSE Comp can take out the prior high. Also I don't have any experience with this "selling on strength" thing in the wsj so I'm interested to see how well (or not) it works as another tool in the old box of tricks. {image}...
Used to look at that WSJ money flow quite a bit, but I have a hard time dovetailing it into anything, to be honest ... . That money outflow is always interesting; I assume it indicates that topping may be happening if price continues to increase, but money flow out also is increasing ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,035
  • Aug 10, 2015 8:02pm Aug 10, 2015 8:02pm
Quoting The Fool
trying to fill a JNK Sep/Dec $35/$34 puts diag for 20c
no dice, sat there all day on a 20c mid
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,036
  • Aug 10, 2015 8:17pm Aug 10, 2015 8:17pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
To a long USO @ 14.60 from last week, I've added a 15P/15C Jan 16 straddle for 2.93
Straddles, hmm....I've never traded straddles before, but I could see long straddles as a viable strategy to put on in anticipation of big moves or rising iv - best to shop them with IVR low, such as after an ER vol crush ... and better to set them up with time to work. I will see if I can find something to fit my idea....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,037
  • Aug 10, 2015 10:35pm Aug 10, 2015 10:35pm
Yeesh. Go away for a couple of hours and SPX500 drops 10 on China devaluation of currency. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...0QG00F20150811

May be a whole different picture come NY open, naturally ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,038
  • Aug 10, 2015 11:05pm Aug 10, 2015 11:05pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Sounds like a good plan Z. I might look at it myself.
With UNG, I'm worried about seasonal strength, so that's why I would go shorter time frame ... . Winter starts to look bad, price will pop up, potentially as early as October ... . Guess the same could be said for WTI, because of heating oil usage, but I confess I haven't looked at seasonality in WTI ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,039
  • Aug 10, 2015 11:17pm Aug 10, 2015 11:17pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Straddles, hmm....I've never traded straddles before, but I could see long straddles as a viable strategy to put on in anticipation of big moves or rising iv - best to shop them with IVR low, such as after an ER vol crush ... and better to set them up with time to work. I will see if I can find something to fit my idea....
Generally, not my go-to strategy, since it's generally a low vol play for an underlying you expect to remain rangebound, and I don't see a lot of stuff out there that fits neatly into that category ... . Nothing's a "perfect set-up," but I think UNG is about as clean as it gets ... . It's kinda smack dab in the middle of its range right now and isn't doin' much ... .

One alternative is to IC the short straddle (which I've done a few times before when I just couldn't get enough juice out of an IC'd strangle): a 11.5/13.5/13.5/15.5 Sep 25 UNG iron condor will get you a 1.08 credit if price stays between 12.42 and 14.58 ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,040
  • Aug 11, 2015 12:07am Aug 11, 2015 12:07am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Yeesh. Go away for a couple of hours and SPX500 drops 10 on China devaluation of currency....
no shit, China trying to revive flatlining export economy, watch for US exporters to take some lumps in turn....maybe my FSLR fade play will be helped. idk, I was kinda looking for US indices to run the old topside stall again...maybe not now
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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