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  • #10,001
  • Aug 10, 2015 9:29am Aug 10, 2015 9:29am
Quoting Boy Wonder
...What a f**king mess. The Fed is a bloody joke. If they don't know, can't decide, then they should just agree on a script and stick to it and outside of that keep their bloody mouths shut. Trading is hard enough without these jokers constantly coming out and saying "it's on" then backtracking then coming out again and saying "it's on" and then backtracking....bloody hell, it's an interminable nightmare trying to figure this lot of jokers out.
Yeah. The picture of this market as I see it:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: freddy_michael_jason.jpg Size: 136 KB
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #10,002
  • Edited 9:50am Aug 10, 2015 9:31am | Edited 9:50am
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} I think much of CL's drop, like so many commodities, is in the $'s rise.
There are real structural changes in the industry that have come and will continue. There are lots of overleveraged oil companies hanging on but if wti stays down at $40 +/- for too long, many are going to die, bk, and default. There will be knock-on effects in the high yield (junk) market. I am looking at short JNK as shown above.

Meanwhile, I was watching for a run up for fiber on good Eurozone/Greece news and risk appetites, but one must wonder where that will turn? If the fickle Fed stays the course....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,003
  • Aug 10, 2015 9:33am Aug 10, 2015 9:33am
Quoting Boy Wonder
Added another - long USO @ 14.74 short Jan 16 16P/16C for 3.11.
that USO is kind of a pill to trade, but good luck, BW....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,004
  • Aug 10, 2015 9:40am Aug 10, 2015 9:40am
Quoting The Fool
I am looking at short JNK as shown above....
trying to fill a JNK Sep/Dec $35/$34 puts diag for 20c
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,005
  • Aug 10, 2015 9:44am Aug 10, 2015 9:44am
Quoting The Fool
I don't mind waiting & have plenty dry powder in some accounts to do more, will be looking for SPY to make some northside headway again in August, but will wait to see $210 or better.
I saw $210 for a minute, will look for SPY higher this week as I'd be looking at Sep4 short legs, maybe hold out for $211 even.....no hurry
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,006
  • Aug 10, 2015 10:04am Aug 10, 2015 10:04am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I saw $210 for a minute, will look for SPY higher this week as I'd be looking at Sep4 short legs, maybe hold out for $211 even.....no hurry
So- do you trade and work at the same time like myself?

Citizens may frown on that you know
  • #10,007
  • Edited 12:02pm Aug 10, 2015 10:11am | Edited 12:02pm
Quoting Pharm0r
So- do you trade and work at the same time like myself? Citizens may frown on that you know
Actually, no - I manage trades mostly in the hour or so b4 & after the NY open and at lunch. I can't open my trading platforms at work as they are blocked on the government's pc's and there are no wireless signals in the building. Starbucks & free wifi just a few blocks away, though....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,008
  • Aug 10, 2015 10:18am Aug 10, 2015 10:18am
Quoting The Fool
VXX will slide on a flat to green day...may even slide a bit on slight red....but that next spike is out there.....the motherlode just waiting for me
Inserted Video
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,009
  • Aug 10, 2015 12:49pm Aug 10, 2015 12:49pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Yeah. The picture of this market as I see it: {image}
LOL, pretty much yes.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #10,010
  • Aug 10, 2015 12:52pm Aug 10, 2015 12:52pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} There are real structural changes in the industry that have come and will continue. There are lots of overleveraged oil companies hanging on but if wti stays down at $40 +/- for too long, many are going to die, bk, and default. There will be knock-on effects in the high yield (junk) market. I am looking at short JNK as shown above. Meanwhile, I was watching for a run up for fiber on good Eurozone/Greece news and risk appetites, but one must wonder where that will turn? If the fickle Fed stays the course....
I think fiber's going to be a slow steady climb myself. It seems the market is not ready to drop it below 1.08 so what can't go down, I guess goes up...but at a crawl. Very good for selling weekly options though, albeit it's a very dangerous game cos you never know when a currency is going to move say 4% in 2 weeks.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #10,011
  • Aug 10, 2015 12:55pm Aug 10, 2015 12:55pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I saw $210 for a minute, will look for SPY higher this week as I'd be looking at Sep4 short legs, maybe hold out for $211 even.....no hurry
Good luck TF; I wouldn't short this myself as I think the chances of tagging the highs are too high. This seems to me a powerful gap up and thrust off a reversal back above the 200dma to end last week. I'm just holding my short 2075 put but considering rolling it up to today's lows.

Edit: scratch that idea: you only get about 2 points for rolling up from a 2075P to a 2085P; not worth the stress IMO.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #10,012
  • Aug 10, 2015 1:06pm Aug 10, 2015 1:06pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} that USO is kind of a pill to trade, but good luck, BW....
Thanks mate. The risk/reward on the trade though is very good. With the combined positions (+200 USO, -1 15P/15C/16P/16C) the downside breakeven is about 13.65 on USO; anything above I make money with max payout at around $16.
If we get down to 13.65, I'm happy because I'll just add more USO.
The key is to let the trade be from now (easier said than done) so that I'm unstressed and able to handle any required rolling near to expiration.
Doesn't use much margin either.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #10,013
  • Aug 10, 2015 2:00pm Aug 10, 2015 2:00pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
Good luck TF; I wouldn't short this myself as I think the chances of tagging the highs are too high.
yeah, maybe. I won't short anything on SPY less than $214 and I am content to wait & see if this week may not be a last rally to new highs. I like selling into strength and this old plan of selling into moves to the top of a channel may still have some life.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,014
  • Aug 10, 2015 4:09pm Aug 10, 2015 4:09pm
profit taking in oil, may last another day or a week. Oil pop and "bad news is good news because it means more stimubus" noise out of China. Same old shit, different day. I might push my short SPY call trigger out some more - up to $213 - until the KoolAid wears off.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,015
  • Aug 10, 2015 4:32pm Aug 10, 2015 4:32pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} yeah, maybe. I won't short anything on SPY less than $214 and I am content to wait & see if this week may not be a last rally to new highs. I like selling into strength and this old plan of selling into moves to the top of a channel may still have some life.
I like the sound of that; I have the same plan.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #10,016
  • Aug 10, 2015 4:34pm Aug 10, 2015 4:34pm
Seeing AAPL up big, makes me wonder, how much of this is real, how much is or might be a big push to take out shorts before the next leg down...
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #10,017
  • Aug 10, 2015 4:37pm Aug 10, 2015 4:37pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
Is that a wedge I see on CL... {image}
Regarding that wedge...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 90 KB
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #10,018
  • Aug 10, 2015 4:41pm Aug 10, 2015 4:41pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
Seeing AAPL up big, makes me wonder, how much of this is real, how much is or might be a big push to take out shorts before the next leg down...
idk, but I had been thinking $115 looked like a good spot for a bi-directional AAPL trade of some kind.....& I missed it
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,019
  • Aug 10, 2015 4:53pm Aug 10, 2015 4:53pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} idk, but I had been thinking $115 looked like a good spot for a bi-directional AAPL trade of some kind.....& I missed it
Well at least you didn't do what I did and buy Dec 105 puts
At least, in my defence, a few days later I sold this week's 112 puts against them, which has softened teh blow. I also added another Dec 105P today near the highs.
Tomorrow will be interesting: continuation, pause or reversal. If SPX is going for a tag of the highs, we could see AAPL push on to maybe 122. I would expect failure there. As ever, you place your bets, and do your best as teh candles unfold, trying to collect credits along the way.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #10,020
  • Aug 10, 2015 4:54pm Aug 10, 2015 4:54pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
Oh my gawd. Will they just shut the f up. First we had Yellen saying this: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...e-rise-in-2015 http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/11/bu...ates.html?_r=0 which was then not repeated in the FOMC statement. So, wtf, she tells us they're likely to go up this year then in the statement days...
Looks like September is still on, but it'll likely be "one and done" for a while unless headline inflation magically reawakens from teh dead:

http://news.forexlive.com/!/feds-loc...-hike-20150810
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
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