Fifty Below

closed orders

EURUSD, H1, 2015 August 10

no more EURUSD Short order into the market.
FXcube

USDCAD, Short @ 1.31295, Target @ 1.2780
(0.01)

closed trades

Total Profit: +51.82$ (+5,4%)

No open EURUSD trade into the market currently.

see also #185

Delete the target @ 1.2780,
Exit @ 1.30064, +123.1, (+9.46$)
Profit: +0.9%
Exit @ 1.30064

(#86, see also #67 - #76 please)

Risk Management

Life Example

When you compare all these open EURUSD orders in the last days (#140, #142, #143, #159, #161, #162, #167, #168, #172, #174, #175, #178, #180, #181, #185), a "trader with a Stop Loss" could have been forced to execute his orders in the red.
My trading style (without any Stop Loss predominantly) prefer to hedge these orders and try to compensate these orders at higher time frames in the profit zone by let the market its breath. This is a great difference in trading concept, ...& you aspect responsibility and liability on your own trades for extended periods.
FXcube

Your experience and skills demonstrated here are always appreciated.

Hi Forexcube,

Thank you for sharing you wisdom, i turned from a losing to a profitable trader when i read your tasayc topic and stopped using SL.
A few months ago i opened a small live account off 200€ witch is now 365€ using 0.01 lots, no SL, cci hooks and multiple time frame analyzing.

Although it is profitable it still feels uncomfortable for me to trade this way so i started using other MM management technique that doesn't always works good and gets me in to trouble. Since its a small account its no big deal but i have to sort this out before using bigger accounts.
The thing i have been doing is keep averaging the price down when a group of positions going the wrong way, then when price comes back closing the group of positions for the average price so the whole operation is a BE.

It has been going good for a long time and i gave me peace of mind knowing that price only had to go half way back to get me out of the bad positions. I guess it is also some kind of ego thing from me because this way virtually every group of positions is either a win or a BE.

But it can off course also wipe your account if you take it to far, at this moment my account is @ -60% floating P/L by doing so, one big spike in the wrong direction can wipe my account. Again this in no big deal since its a small account, this is a good lesson for me and a proof that i have to stop doing this.


Can you tell me more about your hedging strategy? It is not clear to me when you decide to the hedge and when to stop the hedge.

From post 140 in understand that you first went 11X0.1 lot long and the next day you hedged it with shorts when the longs were in loss.
From the posts that follow i understand that you closed the longs partly when they were winning and after that you closed the shorts on a friday afternoon spike.

What would you have done if price kept falling after you opened your shorts to hedge your longs? would you closed your shorts with profits, leaving you longs exposed to some more loss?
When do you decide to start the hedge? Is it based on the price action/location of that moment or is it purely to minimize the risk of the longs that are at loss?

Thanks again for making the effort to show us this way of trading!!!

Nik

To see your world in a grain of sand, and a heaven in a wild flower.
To hold infinity in the palm of your hand, an eternity in an hour.
William Blake

#189

Hi Sitting duck!
I'm not a man of hard rules engraved in stone.
Trading is managing probabilities & things remain fluid.
I will give more explenation in detail in some of the following life examples.
Most of the time it's to balance reasons of probabilities at higher time frames.
In this last life example #187 it was the analyse that the market is still in a ranging environment and not into a bigger trend.
The weekly & the monthly charts has given me the evaluation, the preliminary estimate, the tentative appraisal.
I could also held some of these EURUSD Longs (e.g. 2-4 x 0.01) a while longer. Why not?, ...the monthly bar seems not long enough actually.
In this case here I have hold over week-end exclusively the EURUSD Long orders due to the anticipation of Germany OKs negotiations for 3rd Greek bailout deal.
FXcube

#189

Yes, when I think that the market is ranging.
FXcube

#189

Risk covered
Yes, indeed, it's based on price action and some support/resistance lines at higher time-frames and not forgetting the most important variable: the risk.
FXcube

#188

Thanks FXClown for the kind words.
FXcube

http://www.thelocal.de/20150810/germ...e-crisis-study

http://www.thelocal.de/userdata/imag...0a42039b80.jpg
German Chancellor Angela Merkel meets with Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras. Photo: DPA.
Germany gained €100bn from Greece crisis: study
Published: 10 Aug 2015 15:09 GMT+02:00
Updated: 10 Aug 2015 15:10 GMT+02:00
Germany, which has taken a tough line on Greece, has profited from the country's crisis to the tune of €100 billion ($109 billion), according to a new study on Monday.



The sum represents money Germany saved through lower interest payments on funds the government borrowed amid investor "flights to safety", the study said.
"These savings exceed the costs of the crisis -- even if Greece were to default on its entire debt," said the private, non-profit Leibniz Institute of Economic Research in its paper.
"Germany has clearly benefited from the Greek crisis."
When investors are faced with turmoil, they typically seek a safe haven for their money, and export champion Germany "disproportionately benefited" from that during the debt crisis, it said.
"Every time financial markets faced negative news on Greece in recent years, interest rates on German government bonds fell, and every time there was good news, they rose."
Germany, the eurozone's effective paymaster, has demanded fiscal discipline and tough economic reforms in Greece in return for consenting to new aid from international creditors.
Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble has opposed a Greek debt write-down while pointing to his own government's balanced budget.
The institute, however, argued that the balanced budget was possible in large part only because of Germany's interest savings amid the Greek debt crisis.
The estimated €100 billion Germany had saved since 2010 accounted for over three percent of GDP, said the institute based in the eastern city of Halle.
The bonds of other countries -- including the United States, France and the Netherlands -- had also benefited, but "to a much smaller extent".
Germany's share of the international rescue packages for Greece, including a new loan being negotiated now, came to around €90 billion, said the institute.
"Even if Greece doesn't pay back a single cent, the German public purse has benefited financially from the crisis," said the paper.

Germany urges 'thoroughness over speed' in Greece talks

Germany also warned on Monday that negotiations over a third bailout for Greece must emphasize "thoroughness over speed", appearing to throw cold water on optimism for a quick deal expressed by Athens and its creditors.
"The principle 'thoroughness over speed' applies here in particular," government spokesman Steffen Seibert told reporters as talks resumed in Athens between Greece and the European Central Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the European Stability Mechanism.
As Chancellor Angela Merkel returned to work after a summer holiday, her spokesman Seibert said the "negotiations are being conducted very intensively", but that the German government had not seen any "documents" laying out the terms of a potential agreement.
"A quick conclusion to the negotiations would of course be desirable, but we must not forget that we are discussing a three-year programme, in other words a programme with a wide-ranging list of reforms," he said.
A spokesman for Schäuble echoed the cautious sentiment: "We are ready for a quick review (of a deal proposal) this week if necessary but quality comes before speed here."
He told the same news briefing that Germany was calling for Greece to put forward "an ambitious budget" including a "plausible privatization strategy and sustainable pension reform".
Greece and its creditors are working on the draft of a crucial new bailout of up to €86 billion ($94 billion) in exchange for further reforms before the debt-ridden country must repay €3.4 billion to the ECB on August 20th.
Both sides have indicated that the talks were going well, which would pave the way for the Greek parliament and eurozone finance ministers to approve the agreement ahead of that deadline.

Hi Forexcube,

I fully agree you on this, 6 months ago i became to see the market more as a fluid ongoing thing and i realized that i cannot participate in this market with SL because i would get slaughtered most of the time. This shift in viewing and approaching of the market has had a positive outcome for my results so i am convinced that this is the way to go for me.

When looking at the weekly chart i can see that we are still in a ranging market and it makes sense to me why you chose to close all the positions.
I am looking forward to your more detailed explanation of the coming trades, i am particularly interested in the way to handle things when it seems to go wrong.
I don't want hard rules engraved in stone but some kind of procedure or way of working to manage the bad trades and compensate them with good ones.

Hi forexcube

There is also another way of thinking that i would like to discuss with you.
There is the following saying : ''attack is the best defense''

When you translate it to no SL trading you could put it this way:
If i scalp and never take a loss but only small profits ( no defense only attack) then all the small wins could overcome the big losses.

If the market goes up 100 pips on one day in reality the price had made a distance of 500 pips to get there because of all the small fluctuations it got during the day.
So if i cached 1/5 the of the 500 pips with small scalps then i would have already made enough profit to counter a worst scenario short with a 100 pips loss that is still open.

Is this in a simplicity the blue print of your way of trading?
I read here somewhere on forex factory that you have to take in account the nature of the markets, the poster left it open witch the nature of the market is so i gave my own interpretation to it:

1. if the market rises 100 pips it will make a distance that is much larger that 100 pips. ( giving you a chance to make lots of small profits)
2. the markets will come back most of the time,80% of the time the price is visiting a place that is has been before recently. (giving you a chance to get rid of the bad positions)

These 2 natures of the market give me the confidence to trade this way, but my mind is never at rest and always looking for a better way to decrease my risk for when there will be a trend and my account goes in big draw down.

France 40, Long @ 5'125.5
(0.01)

see also #200

Risk Management

Life Example - France 40

This here seems a little bit more extremely then the EURUSD example and the break up could need more time.
FXcube

Actual open orders since 2015 July 08

#4
this order is open since 2015 July 16
France 40, Short @ 5'046.6
(0.01 Lot)

Alternating
...& I set new attributes in this way:
5'046.6 is now: 4'6214 from 2015.07.08

That's what gives it that extra something, related to the bigger loss zone.

Bear in mind, please, that "Fifty Below" was publish not before 2015 August 16
FXcube