Fifty Below

...or I can choose to force myself to consider the likelihood...
Trading is managing probabilities.
Things remain fluid.
FXcube

Open Account
Deposit: 270.-$, Beginning Date: 2015 July 16 (#3),
Increase of Capital Stock: +400.-$ (2015 July 20, #26), Actual Deposit: 670.-$
Increase of Capital Stock: +200.-$ (2015 August 03, #157), Actual Deposit: 870.-$
Increase of Capital Stock: +200.-$ (2015 August 04, #160), Actual Deposit: 1'070.-$
Actual equity:
745.-$ (2015 July 27, #80), Profit: +75.-$ (+11%)
1'270.-$ (2015 August 17), Profit: +200.-$ (+18%)


Philosophy
It's time to dispel some myths, e.g. p.4, #69-#74, p.5, #82

FXcube

0.01 Lot
USDNOK, Short @ 8.1595, Target @ 7.6250
(0.01 Lot)

Equity: 270.-$

this is open since 5'046.6
France 40, Short @ 5'046.6
(0.01 Lot)

If you worship money and things - if they are where you tap real meaning in life - then you will never have enough.
Never feel you have enough. It's the truth.
David Foster, This Is Water, 2009, Wallace Literary Trust

"This Is Water"

Im Jahr 2005 wurde David Foster Wallace gebeten, vor dem Abschlussjahrgang des Kenyon College über ein Thema seiner Wahl zu sprechen. Es ist die einzige solche Rede, die er je gehalten hat.

USDNOK, Monthly, 2015 July 16

France 40, Monthly, 2015 July 16

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...the-unexpected

http://assets.bwbx.io/images/iHYBlYLVlVOQ/v1/-1x-1.jpg

Remarkable new details of Plutos largest moon Charon are revealed in this image from New Horizons Long Range Reconnaissance Imager (LORRI), taken late on July 13, 2015, from a distance of 289,000 miles (466,000 kilometers).
NASA-JHUAPL-SwRI

Maybe an outbreak could occur.

France 40, Long @ 5'096.3
(0.01 Lot)

France 40, Daily, 2015 July 16

EURUSD, Long @ 1.09320, Target @1.1185
(0.01 Lot)

EURUSD, H4, 2015 July 16

actual Equity: 212.-$

http://www.talkmarkets.com/content/e...edium=referral

The Simple Math Behind Greece’s Complicated Situation
By Michael Lebowitz, CFA of 720global.com
Tuesday, July 14, 2015 1:37 PM EDT

The Simple Math Behind Greece’s Complicated Situation
"Life is really simple, but we insist on making it complicated." - Confucius
Occam’s Razor is a frequently quoted principle which states that when one is faced with a multitude of seemingly complex possibilities, the simplest approach or explanation is best. As the ECB and Greece fight over terms of yet another bailout we employ this principle to help better grasp Greece’s dire situation.
The ratio of debt to GDP is one of the most basic and popular measures used to determine the ultimate ability of a sovereign nation to service its debt. Consider a country which has a debt to GDP ratio of 100%, and a balanced budget (excluding interest payments). In this country, it can be said that the interest rate on its debt and the growth rate of its GDP must be equal for the ratio to stay unchanged. In this example a 2% interest rate with a 1% GDP growth rate would result in an increase from 100% to 101% in the debt to GDP ratio. As the ratio rises above 100%, the interest rate must be lower than the GDP growth rate or the ratio will continue to rise. At a debt to GDP ratio of 150%, a 2% interest rate would require a 3% growth rate to remain stable at 150%.
Greece has a current debt to GDP ratio of 170%, and based on current bailout terms, it will likely grow to well over 200%. So applying the logic from above, Greece’s GDP growth rate prior to the current bailout needed to be 1.70 times greater than the rate of interest Greece pays on its debt just to keep its ratio constant. Following are some facts which will allow us make judgments on Greece’s ability to improve or at least sustain its debt to GDP ratio:
Since 1970 Greece’s best 5-year annualized GDP growth rate was +1.50% with an average of +.46%. Over the past 10 years growth has averaged -0.50%.
Since 1997 Greece’s lowest 5-year average interest rate on 10 year bonds was 3.41% with an average of 7.50%. Over the past 10 years the average annual 10 year interest rate was 8.16%

France 40, Monthly, 2015 July 16

approximate values
France 40: 5'395 - 5'232 - 5'085 - 5'000 - 4'905 - 4'8354 - 4'725 - 4'510 - 4'415 - 3'950

#10

Exit @ 5'1301, +33.8 (+36.89$)

France 40, M30, 2015 July 16

BUY LIMIT
This PO was executed at 2015.07.16, 20:53:53 CEST (UTC/GMT +2 hours)
CADHKD, Long @ 5.97977, Target @ 8.00
(0.01 Lot)

actual: 5.98165

EURUSD, Daily, 2015 July 17
61.8%

http://www.efxnews.com/story/29718/e...arclays-socgen

EUR/USD: Breakout Or Not - Nomura, Barclays, SocGen
16 Jul 2015 15:35 EDT

As EUR/USD is drifting lower, technical strategy teams at Nomura, Barclays Capital, and SocGen provide their views on whether this move constitutes a breakout or still part of a broader range.
Nomura: Euro sold off to and broke 1.0916 support and that leaves a vacuum of support to 1.0819. The reason we are not pushing a more bearish case is twofold: first, the move from 1.1436 looks like an Elliott correction not an impulse and second, momentum is still constructive.
From an Elliott perspective, the decline from 1.1216 is a 5-wave decline that is nearing completion. We favor that this is wave-(c) of a larger 3-wave correction from 1.1436; holding above 1.0819 is critical to this count. Key upside resistance to better is 1.0916 followed by 1.0966 and 1.1083.

http://www.efxnews.com/sites/default/files/Jul15/b6.PNG

Barclays: The break below our initial downside targets near 1.0915 endorses our bearish view.

We are now looking for a move towards the 1.0815 range lows. Our greater targets are towards the 1.0460 year-to-date lows.

http://www.efxnews.com/sites/default/files/Jul15/b8.PNG

SocGen: EUR/USD is piercing below an upward trend and earlier highlighted intermittent support (1.0950). Daily RSI too is breaching a support.

However the broader consolidation zone still persists and 1.0885/1.08 will decide if the revisit of multi decadal channel at 1.05/1.04 happens.

http://www.efxnews.com/sites/default/files/Jul15/b7.PNG
Copyright 2015 eFXnews