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  • #136,541
  • Aug 7, 2015 4:09pm Aug 7, 2015 4:09pm
US 30's 10's & 5's all down with 2's only very marginally up and $ also down on the day ...would seem like today's NFP data was interpreted negatively by some with regard to rate hike expectations, so might we expect an initial follow through in the near term next week with E/U rising? ...just some thoughts.

Edit ..I meant the yields of course, sorry
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The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #136,542
  • Aug 7, 2015 4:12pm Aug 7, 2015 4:12pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} {quote}{quote} ..and we rolled. Last week we couldn't take 1.096x and this time bastard rolled to the micro pipet on the flip level. We have Q/M/D/ and intraday charts aligned and W with a too close to call (bastards...je je je). An epic intraday session in the euro but more importantly we receive a strong confirmation of hikes coming in September today. Trailing mid term stops to the 1.12xx handle and absolutely nothing to do except wait to see how the dice roll ... sisse
...ah ...just saw your post
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #136,543
  • Aug 7, 2015 4:44pm Aug 7, 2015 4:44pm
Still want 1.1010
  • #136,544
  • Aug 8, 2015 5:51am Aug 8, 2015 5:51am
Quoting sisse
{quote} {quote}{quote} ..and we rolled. Last week we couldn't take 1.096x and this time bastard rolled to the micro pipet on the flip level. We have Q/M/D/ and intraday charts aligned and W with a too close to call (bastards...je je je). An epic intraday session in the euro but more importantly we receive a strong confirmation of hikes coming in September today. Trailing mid term stops to the 1.12xx handle and absolutely nothing to do except wait to see how the dice roll ... sisse

After reaction to NFP release, Gold is set to turn down again to make a LL. If it will bounce back after few $, an upside play for 111x will renew again.. Continuation downwards will put: 1020's, 940's, 850's in view
Euro have 860's as a key level and until it sits above - long scenarios in play.
69
  • #136,545
  • Aug 8, 2015 6:56am Aug 8, 2015 6:56am
Before next FOMC meeting on Sept 16-17th, there will be one more job report on Sept 4th.

That might be the reason why the market didn't react as expected after one more solid jobs growth for july. Four more weeks to think about it, a new report coming for a last confirmation, it looks like there is no hurry.

Third bailout deal with Greece coming may add noise to EUR/USD during that "waiting time".

Unemployement Rate - Bureau of Labor Statistics
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  • #136,546
  • Aug 8, 2015 7:28am Aug 8, 2015 7:28am
Quoting CommercialB
US 30's 10's & 5's all down with 2's only very marginally up and $ also down on the day ...would seem like today's NFP data was interpreted negatively by some with regard to rate hike expectations, so might we expect an initial follow through in the near term next week with E/U rising? ...just some thoughts. Edit ..I meant the yields of course, sorry {image}
Something I was wondering, was how much of the boost to US treasuries was due to money being moved out of equities for the 'safe' play with bonds? If significant amounts, then that would support the idea of a Sept hike and the market seeing August NFP as enough to push down equities even more & eventually the $ up.
defense wins championships
  • #136,547
  • Aug 9, 2015 9:37am Aug 9, 2015 9:37am
With the majority of Europe on Holiday for the month of August, anything is possible. However, if the volume of activity in the EUR/USD is higher than usual for the month of August (check historical charts), then this is an added measure of evidence that institutional positions are being made in accordance with a massive shift to "safety"... whether that be perceived as the USD with the gradual raising of interest rates, treasuries, .... out of Gold...into the Risk OFF scenario versus the "RISK ON" trades... etc. Clearly Sisse can speak more accurately to the specifics of the market dynamics. It is greatly appreciated here.
  • #136,548
  • Aug 9, 2015 10:59am Aug 9, 2015 10:59am
Quoting FxMaximus
With the majority of Europe on Holiday for the month of August, anything is possible. However, if the volume of activity in the EUR/USD is higher than usual for the month of August (check historical charts), then this is an added measure of evidence that institutional positions are being made in accordance with a massive shift to "safety"... whether that be perceived as the USD with the gradual raising of interest rates, treasuries, .... out of Gold...into the Risk OFF scenario versus the "RISK ON" trades... etc. Clearly Sisse can speak more accurately...
It's more of a shift to risk, than shift to safety.
  • #136,549
  • Aug 10, 2015 5:12am Aug 10, 2015 5:12am
Quoting ClinicalEx
{quote} Deja vu here but I think this is more true than ever. That we're trading at these levels show the big plans afoot despite how nasty things got for the bears on the lower TF's. I do think that we're aligned for a rate hike and now everything depends on 1.098. If the bulls take it we're in standby mode but holding the test makes things very interesting. Super interesting to be trading next week, but first lets see if we can comfortably hold below intraday. A close at 1.098 gives first advantage to the bulls for next week.
1.098 holding as expected with word needed from FOMC members to put momentum in overdrive. 1.0922 has become important. Only the most committed bulls are holding there and it's likely that there will be solid longs covering just below with 1.088 another interim level with heavy implications and quickly opened with the 092 break.

A move below 088 and the bulls are quickly running out of time and excuses, and covering hard, which brings 1.072 into play syncing the technicals beautifully for the next NFP and for tracking the next FED.

I think members here are tracking DXY so for now a pretty orderly move to 97.55 (it wasn't a blockbuster NFP but DID offer a buy the lows/sell the highs
play.) with 97.95 the crucial resistance holding the dollar at bay. Treasuries holding 127.69 via .57.

Oil looks like it can run another couple of hundred points before finding some support- even then...- so no imminent hold ups there and gold isn't looking too hot either. Either way, a combination of anemic global conditions, oversupply and rates are going to keep commodities at bay for the purposes of trading the pair.

Panning out so far. Risks are skewed against the bulls but let's see what Lockhart and Fischer have to say.
  • #136,550
  • Aug 10, 2015 5:54am Aug 10, 2015 5:54am
Quoting ClinicalEx
{quote}... Only the most committed bulls are holding there and it's likely that there will be solid longs covering just below with 1.088 another interim level with heavy implications and quickly opened with the 092 break. A move below 088 and the bulls are quickly running out of time ...
All card are dealt and as you said talking heads could provide short term noise to speed or slow down intraday flows but wont change the final outcome...

There is nothing to see or do but wait until it pans out ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,551
  • Aug 10, 2015 6:06am Aug 10, 2015 6:06am
Quoting sisse
{quote} All card are dealt and as you said talking heads could provide short term noise to speed or slow down intraday flows but wont change the final outcome... There is nothing to see or do but wait until it pans out ... sisse
could u please elaborate ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #136,552
  • Aug 10, 2015 7:22am Aug 10, 2015 7:22am
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} could u please elaborate ...
See Sisse's previous posts for a detailed outlook.
  • #136,553
  • Aug 10, 2015 7:31am Aug 10, 2015 7:31am
As expected, talking heads providing plenty of noise intraday. Having cleared the employment front with a solid NFP, a dovish FED member reminding us that inflation is the last "reason" to delay the unavoidable ...

Quoting sisse
Bookmark your calendar especially August the 7th [employment][check] and the 19th[inflation] and you can pretty much go on holidays till then ...
Whatever the case, hawkish FED member coming in a few and in the doldrums or the thin summer days more noise around the corner ...

For today only OIL in interesting levels after regaining the $44.xx handle. A tick above the current highs will unlock a profit taking leg that can extend as highs as the $47.3x....on the rest of the board, same levels, same trades, same all.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,554
  • Aug 10, 2015 8:04am Aug 10, 2015 8:04am
Quoting ExForX
{quote} See Sisse's previous posts for a detailed outlook.
I don't know why but I have a very strong feeling on the south with a new low below .04xx .. Correct me if I m wrong ... And with humble respect to sisse's thought ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #136,555
  • Aug 10, 2015 8:12am Aug 10, 2015 8:12am
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} I don't know why but I have a very strong feeling on the south with a new low below .04xx .. Correct me if I m wrong ... And with humble respect to sisse's thought ...
That's also what Sisse is looking at, long term. Still, it's a longer term plan that has been setting up for quite a while now. A lot of noise had to be cleared but the pathway was there all along. The Greek news has cooled down temporarily, Fed related news keep confirming rate hike expectations, so yeah the leg down in eurusd looks ready to roll, but don't forget that the markets are thin right now and that means a lot of spikes can be part of it, so don't overleverage and play it safe. Remember nothing is for sure so always be prepared for the worst.
  • #136,556
  • Aug 10, 2015 8:19am Aug 10, 2015 8:19am
Quoting ExForX
{quote} That's also what Sisse is looking at, long term. Still, it's a longer term plan that has been setting up for quite a while now. A lot of noise had to be cleared but the pathway was there all along. The Greek news has cooled down temporarily, Fed related news keep confirming rate hike expectations, so yeah the leg down in eurusd looks ready to roll, but don't forget that the markets are thin right now and that means a lot of spikes can be part of it, so don't overleverage and play it safe. Remember nothing is for sure so always be prepared...
Managing money is the important part of the game... And with appreciation to your words .... Always be prepared for the worst ..... Anyways how are you and sisse ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #136,557
  • Aug 10, 2015 1:18pm Aug 10, 2015 1:18pm
Quoting ClinicalEx
{quote} 1.098 holding as expected with word needed from FOMC members to put momentum in overdrive. 1.0922 has become important. Only the most committed bulls are holding there and it's likely that there will be solid longs covering just below with 1.088 another interim level with heavy implications and quickly opened with the 092 break. A move below 088 and the bulls are quickly running out of time and excuses, and covering hard, which brings 1.072 into play syncing the technicals beautifully for the next NFP and for tracking the next FED....
1.092x easily held the test with FED members a bit soft and cautious this time. 1.098 was taken intraday but we'll have all week to settle that (if we do.) Same old levels in play from last time: 1.1053 and 1.1096 at the highs. Until then, tracking the dollar very closely to see if we hold 97.20.
  • #136,558
  • Edited 5:32pm Aug 10, 2015 5:22pm | Edited 5:32pm
Quoting sisse
{quote}{quote} {quote} {quote} Closing one of the last 2 pending conversation in the thread.... I think it has been a very informative conversation for some including lurkers, newbies and some experience traders too that have been following the conversation since late May....I hope it was useful for you to track TA alerts in combination with FA events... Hathor this final chart update conclude our pending conversation. I leave a new mark just as reminder of what is in play in next few session..... {image} sisse
Hi Sisse!

What if...:
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To not crack the yearly high, I had to modify your structure a little bit.
Since 'C' point the pair is full of shorts, so taking it out (while creating T1 & optionally T2) would be reasonable before heading down (if heading lower at all).
f(z)=z2+c
  • #136,559
  • Aug 11, 2015 12:46am Aug 11, 2015 12:46am
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=552684


Warren Buffet illustrats how diffecult i will be for FED to raise rates when other centralbanks are reducing their interest rates. We have also seen China devaluate this morning which also makes it more diffecult for the US to raise their interest rate. US can not compete by themself but are depended on the currencies of which they are doing the trade with.

There must be an balanse between the currencies for competivtative reasons.
Under the financial crisis some currencies were too low and other too high. The declining GPB , the rising CHF and YEN made big unbalanses in the market. The ones that tradeed before did not trade anymore due to currencies. The GPB has ros back to more normal levels also the YEN. The CHF is still too high and making problems still in Europe with all the CHF loan and also for the swiss themselves. The swiss are intervering in the market now due that they suffer too much.
  • #136,560
  • Aug 11, 2015 5:58am Aug 11, 2015 5:58am
Quoting hathor
{quote} Hi Sisse! What if...: {image} {image} To not crack the yearly high, I had to modify your structure a little bit. Since 'C' point the pair is full of shorts, so taking it out (while creating T1 & optionally T2) would be reasonable before heading down (if heading lower at all).
hathor, hathor ... Let me update you the chart from the last conversation to see if things have visually change ....

This was the last update here:

Quoting sisse
....I hope it was useful for you to track TA alerts in combination with FA events... Hathor this final chart update conclude our pending conversation...
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Since you haven't been tracking the same chart, here is the last update as for today:

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Now let me ask you what has it changed based on this chart alone?

I see your point but technically it looks extremely hard to reach those levels. The only option to validate your idea will be a drastic change in fundamentals short term that will imply a very dovish FED kicking can for at least Dec 2016 hikes and on top of a big drop in US number from here until Sep (its only a few left) and especially a massive undershoot in US inflation numbers next week....

------ ----------- ------------

In any case, interesting numbers from the EZ, the periphery keeps printing solid gains (positive mid and long term) but Germany disappointed carrying european equities to the bottom the range.... In the euro, mid termcompression range keep narrowing within lots of sharp noisy spasm intraday. Nothing to see for the rest of the session.

Inflation related numbers coming before NY and given the light markets and summer trading expected for this week they will carry dollar intraday. Only an overshoot will be interesting to track, any other scenario is chop until the top of the range ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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