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AUD/USD

  • #91,501
  • Aug 7, 2015 8:44pm Aug 7, 2015 8:44pm
good so far, 30 pips drawdown, 55 pips ahead but why, I thought USD strong?
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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #91,502
  • Aug 7, 2015 11:24pm Aug 7, 2015 11:24pm
Wonder how will AU open on Monday morning...
Shit Happens
  • #91,503
  • Aug 8, 2015 2:04am Aug 8, 2015 2:04am
Chinese data
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  • #91,504
  • Aug 8, 2015 9:19am Aug 8, 2015 9:19am
Quoting Erebus
good so far, 30 pips drawdown, 55 pips ahead but why, I thought USD strong? {image}
Hi Erebus

I look to sell AU at current level soon as I see a weakness.
With China slowing Feds threatening IR hike in Sept Aussie will be going back to low 73's again
Much of the boast came from
"RBA Governor Glenn Stevens has recently sounded reluctant to cut again as he balances the need to underpin a sluggish economy against the risk of over stimulating an already hot housing market."
So market anticipated further cuts but did not get hence the rebound.
Not sustainable Aussie will get crushed again.
regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #91,505
  • Aug 8, 2015 8:01pm Aug 8, 2015 8:01pm
Quoting act333
Wonder how will AU open on Monday morning...
Why? because of the China data? I expect to see no change, even if it gaps down, maybe just 10-20 pips down.
  • #91,506
  • Edited 9:02pm Aug 8, 2015 8:48pm | Edited 9:02pm
The weak Chinese data, the weakness in oil, and the strength of the USD are the reasons why you should short the AUD, or hold your short positions. I see people talking about a reversal. If you try to pick tops and bottoms, just go to a casino....at least you will get free drinks. The AUD has a strong, established down trend, and still has a ways to go to get realigned with the other currencies. The Aud and kiwi play off of each other, and the kiwi had a rally Friday, but was stopped by the 61.8 - 70.1 sell zone on the 240.

I am currently holding my short positions in Crude and AUDUSD
  • #91,507
  • Aug 9, 2015 1:00am Aug 9, 2015 1:00am
I think AUDUSD might go up to 0.746
  • #91,508
  • Aug 9, 2015 2:28am Aug 9, 2015 2:28am
Quoting mobben2009
I think AUDUSD might go up to 0.746
I think if 0.742 will be broken, it can go to 0.748, if not - will go south
  • #91,509
  • Aug 9, 2015 2:57am Aug 9, 2015 2:57am
Quoting eugenyk
{quote} I think if 0.742 will be broken, it can go to 0.748, if not - will go south
Exactly. With the forming of double top on H4, it could go back 0.734 or 0.732. But with the current momentum, I guess the bull have the upper hand. Just my 2 cent opinion
  • #91,510
  • Aug 9, 2015 4:02am Aug 9, 2015 4:02am
Quoting mobben2009
{quote} Exactly. With the forming of double top on H4, it could go back 0.734 or 0.732. But with the current momentum, I guess the bull have the upper hand. Just my 2 cent opinion
Agreed. I'm keeping an eye on the H4 double top. AUD will fall again for sure.
  • #91,511
  • Aug 9, 2015 11:09am Aug 9, 2015 11:09am
Quoting Dimi.A
{quote} Agreed. I'm keeping an eye on the H4 double top. AUD will fall again for sure.
+1. Maybe a quick pullback to the upside, but into the negative for the longer-term.
  • #91,512
  • Aug 9, 2015 7:39pm Aug 9, 2015 7:39pm
Australian recession ... its coming, but when? What to watch for.
http://news.forexlive.com/!/australi...h-for-20150810
  • #91,513
  • Aug 10, 2015 12:28am Aug 10, 2015 12:28am
Quoting roger44
Australian recession ... its coming, but when? What to watch for. http://news.forexlive.com/!/australi...h-for-20150810
based of that Chart, i would say give it another 4-5years.
  • #91,514
  • Aug 10, 2015 9:29am Aug 10, 2015 9:29am
Quoting Firstboss
{quote} {quote} What he said! ;-) @cheersdup, I am not going long right now - there is still some dollar strength left (we haven't even reached the trendline and the 61.8% fibo), and the reversal won't be instantaneous. The reversal might take all the way to February. My post was a reminder about the long-term picture, not an entry call for today session. As for the USD interest hikes, the first one has been pretty much played out (tomorrow nonfarm will likely confirm the hike). Now the intrigue will shift on the prospective and speed of further...
I'm arguing that the 61.8% fibo won't hold in the medium term. Might be an interesting place to put longs on in mid 2016 for some carry, but even then we'll see US short rates at 0.5-0.75 with upward bias, and aussie short rates probably holding steady around 2.00% -- i.e. not very much carry and non-positive rolls.

But that's crystal ball stuff, we'll see how it plays out. I'm looking for AUDUSD to overreact and plow through 61.8% LT fibo by the end of the year. Last couple fed hike cycles were not good for the dollar in the short term, but this round looks to be a different beast, with US and UK seemingly way ahead of the pack in terms of tightening.

Either way, I'm not worried about your trades firstboss, you clearly know your s%#t. I'm trying to edify the pip scalpers about the dangers of long scalping in a very doggish pair.
  • #91,515
  • Aug 11, 2015 6:09am Aug 11, 2015 6:09am
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  • #91,516
  • Aug 11, 2015 7:11am Aug 11, 2015 7:11am
Again no rocket science here. Bad news from China = Weaker Aussie.
Aussie now testing 0.73 again. If broken, we will see further south.
US opening now, we will see.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #91,517
  • Aug 11, 2015 10:53am Aug 11, 2015 10:53am
eur/aud is the hero today
  • #91,518
  • Aug 11, 2015 11:38am Aug 11, 2015 11:38am
monthly chart showing probability for 7050 for this pair, any one feel so?
Dont follow me if others express my same view, you get screwed!
  • #91,519
  • Aug 11, 2015 11:54am Aug 11, 2015 11:54am
sorry, did not have time to count how many short positions i have but yea, mega short.
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  • #91,520
  • Aug 11, 2015 12:07pm Aug 11, 2015 12:07pm
Quoting tashkent
sorry, did not have time to count how many short positions i have but yea, mega short. {image}
Hope u are well capitalised buddy.
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