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The Really Useless Thread

  • #136,521
  • Aug 6, 2015 10:50am Aug 6, 2015 10:50am
Quoting sisse
{quote} In any case, Oil again getting hammered and keep paying beautifully. We are entering in the yearly lows and within distance (...uff in a couple of weeks only) of the first mid term target ($41 handle). By far one of the trades of the summer so far (including as collateral CAD which has been clean and clear too with support of rates on top) . Crouching time for OIL as a break below will unlock an extensive panic leg that will carry major implications across the world... ... sisse
Hello Sisse, by saying "extensive panic leg that will carry major implications across the world"... as we are getting closer and closer to the point =) do you also see some imminent implications - of this panic leg/longer - for the rest of the board/assets? Of course other question is if we get there. I would say that if not today with NFP definitely

Plus some time before: u mentioned 41,2X as intermediate stop, 36,6X as potentional target and 26,4 as max extension. Do you see these level as still valid?

Thank you
  • #136,522
  • Edited 12:50pm Aug 6, 2015 11:10am | Edited 12:50pm
Quoting MarianneOslo
Everytime there are expectaions for a coming rate hike it is getting delayed. it is always someting new. This time it is crashing commodities and strong GPB as the reason(which is a good reason) The votes changed down from last time 1-0-8 from2-0-7. The message is: yes, we will hike but not before we are certain that the negative impact from lower commodity prices and stronger GBP have abated. The above also means that to a certain degree the decision to hike or not is not really in BoEs hands, at least for now. If UK willnot have rate...
Hello, maybe just to comment:

I do not think that the fact that the decision is "not in BoEs hands", as you say, states anything specific about current situation making it somehow different form other times or other CB around the world, resp. making the BoE situation specific. CBs are per definition dependent on the macroeconomic developments - and I would say it includes exchange rates as well as comodity prices - and therefore they are functionally dependent on the surrounding economic reality, which they can influence (to some extent) but which also limits and determines their actions. And in this sense all the CBs are in same position.

About " If UK willnot have rate hike US will not eighter.There must be a balanse between the currencies. Some can not be too strong while others are too weak. US suffer with the strong currency." - even though there may be problem with stronger dollar - Im not sure that the causal relationahip works as the problem of strong dolar is just a piece of the whole "hikes" puzzle - maybe one opposite argument among many others on BoE x FED issue: from the side of the financial system =) as BoE was not really hawkish I would expect that FED has "more" red light to go when it comes to the problem of the stress of the global financial markets from hikes, which may still (after not really hawkish BoE) be "supported" by another country (GB) staying with extremelly acomodative monetary policy for a little bit longer. Incentive for FED to lift off?

But who knows Any idea/argument is welcomed
  • #136,523
  • Aug 6, 2015 12:44pm Aug 6, 2015 12:44pm
Quoting MarianneOslo
We will not see any rate hike this year nor in UK or in US. The first rate hike will come from UK i think.
Fed's a go for 25 bps Sept 17: book it. Dropping commods are bad news for some, good for others. The Fed wants to ease the air out of the malinvestment bubbles it helped create - none more apparent than in hydrocarbons, but also in equities. Stock buybacks on cheap credit do not grow a real economy. Rate hikes will ultimately be a good thing.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136,524
  • Aug 6, 2015 1:58pm Aug 6, 2015 1:58pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Fed's a go for 25 bps Sept 17: book it. Dropping commods are bad news for some, good for others. The Fed wants to ease the air out of the malinvestment bubbles it helped create - none more apparent than in hydrocarbons, but also in equities. Stock buybacks on cheap credit do not grow a real economy. Rate hikes will ultimately be a good thing.

Time will show. US har started to suffer because the investors have gone to Europe as it is too expensive now to invest in the US. USD is too strong.

In addition crashing: Apple, Twitter, Oil, Commodities, Greek Stocks, Chinese Stocks

I do no belive it will happen.
  • #136,525
  • Aug 6, 2015 2:19pm Aug 6, 2015 2:19pm
A very dull day after the disappointing BOE in the morning with both GU as widely expected after the news holding the chop zone 1.550x and FTSE holding 673x but Oil marching down in a smooth and sharp falling knife.

...and we are back in to FED rates for the key NFP tomorrow. Nothing new in the main instruments across the board so same levels, same trades same all for tomorrow.

Quoting hoom
{quote} i dont expect a daily roll under 0900 figure for nfp play ... what would be your take for the roll and opening price for the event ! hoom
1.095x / 6x ...

Quoting chester123
{quote} "extensive panic leg that will carry major implications across the world"... ... that if not today with NFP definitely Plus some time before: u mentioned 41,2X as intermediate stop, 36,6X as potentional target and 26,4 as max extension. Do you see these level as still valid? Thank you
NFP will certainly help via dollar and equities retreating but the move has its own inner forces in play...

Why shouldn't be valid?...nothing has changed (at least until tomorrow) and some of us here have been fleecing the beast from the highs of this leg why bother closing preemptivly before NFP.

In simple words no changes in the FA view (no new data) and on the TA side we are in super trending mode short term flirting to make a major break on yearly (multiyears) low ... and you know what happen if we take a multiyear low or high, don't you? ...we have a chance for a major jackpot ..so until then, managing the remaining position on trend mode until further data ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,526
  • Aug 6, 2015 2:23pm Aug 6, 2015 2:23pm
Quoting MarianneOslo
In addition crashing: Apple, Twitter, Oil, Commodities, Greek Stocks, Chinese Stocks I do no belive it will happen.
"crashing" is hyperbole. There's no way around it - any approach to rate normalization is gonna have an impact on equities - if the Fed were to wait for a time for that not to be the case, they'd be waiting forever.

Anyway, GREK and NBG are up well today. You better get in here near the bottom
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136,527
  • Aug 7, 2015 5:29am Aug 7, 2015 5:29am
After the European opening range that was pretty much it for the session. All cards on the table for NFP with Bonds turning around and pointing to imminent hikes on sight.

In order of leading movers and shakers for today:

---> Dollar (DXY) is the leading benchmark for today across the board and will be the rain maker if NFP doesn't flop. 98.6x is THE LEVEL in play. A break (good NFP/rates) unlocks the mid term swing to 107.xx with strong intermediate stop at 104.7x and this year current yearly highs. A flop on small miss or small undershoot in NFP will just leave us in chop zone for the rest of the summer.

---> Gold in a particularly very interesting position for trading. Simple & clean map there. A break 1080.xx on good numbers/ via rates expectations unlocks a quick exhaustion leg on rates to 103x.xx and a extension to main mid term intermedia target 990.xx. A flop will create a wide chop zone for the rest of the summer but in a tradable range to 1080.xx -> 114x.xx (time to clear shot term and play the reverso).

---> US Equities expected to be a bit on the back sit today. A very good number, although will trigger the rates play. Its still a good positive number for the economy and with rates in play is a solid confirmation for the mid term that the US economy is ready to rock after the hikes normalisation is finish meaning Real Money will be looking to buy the dips so not expecting much beyond the sharp knee jerk reaction on each hikes hiccup.

A positive NFP / hikes unlocks 1942.xx with max extension 1890.xx for the years/1st round of hikes end with hard intermediate stops at 2045.xx and 1980.xx. A flop and we'll just prolong extended chop zone for the rest of the summer (2115.x -> 2070.xx)

--->The rest of the major in the board, Oil will feel the aftershocks via dollar. A flop will open a slight glimmer of hope to start forming a feeble bottom for the rest of the summer.

--->While Euro and all dollar pairs will just move as collateral of King dollar. All tradable but the best performers will be the ones where the 2 sides are pointing to the same direction (AUD, CAD, EUR while the choppier ones will be GBP, JPY and CHF).

We'll check final details for the plays before the news ...for now we are set for an early lunch in Europe and get ready for the first potential RMT play of the seasson...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,528
  • Aug 7, 2015 7:25am Aug 7, 2015 7:25am
...and here we go for another NFP day. Today particularly important since the FED link Sep hikes to this number. For the Euro (nearly 2 weeks in the very back sit on the board but finally back to business)

---->On the fundamental side:

  1. Very simple to follow today. Even a relatively bad number wont affect the major positive job trend in the US so all eyes on the actual headline (and the Average Hourly Earning) ONLY for the HIKES play.
  2. Inline and anything above will just officially imply that we better sit tight for September because RATES are finally coming.
  3. A flop will only delay the outcome and make the dovish talking head start pointing to only 1 rate this year at Q4 leaving September meeting with a HUGE uncertainty.

---->On the technical side:

  1. 1.088x open the floodgates to the downside to both short and mid term targets. 1.073x with ext 1.063x for the short term and main mid term target 1.049x leaving the parity leg only after taking the yearly lows for later this year.
  2. To the other side, 1.098x is the only level to track to put as back in wide chop some for the rest of the summer to the 1.11xx handle. A Weekly close below 1.088x will LOCK the 1.11xx handle confirming the HIGH of this Quarter.

---->For the actual flows:

  1. Clean map. Inline or better is direct trade 1.095x ---> 1.073x with max extension 1.063x in a few session (or in one or two if we get the overshoot) with soft intermediate stop at 1.088x
  2. Flop (but not too much) and we have a direct hit 1.098x with max extension 1.108x with stop getting hit on the wrong side. A massive undershot will caught the market in the wrong foot so, sharp zigzag 1.114x to settle the toll around 1.108x.
  3. Any other combination is chop zigzag 1.096x ---> 1.088x for the W roll to settle if we get a break down or not ...

Good luck all already trading or planning to trade ...

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,529
  • Aug 7, 2015 7:32am Aug 7, 2015 7:32am
Inline in all fronts with the revisions ...meaning solid report...1.088x tested watchout the floor ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,530
  • Aug 7, 2015 8:32am Aug 7, 2015 8:32am
Quoting sisse
Inline in all fronts with the revisions ...meaning solid report...1.088x tested watchout the floor ... sisse
momentum didn't occur on us$ bull...084x holding downside and if it doesnt break in these couple of hours we could be done for the day !

hoom
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #136,531
  • Edited 8:48am Aug 7, 2015 8:34am | Edited 8:48am
They quickly fflushed 1.093 to 1.098 just before the print. Initially a subdued reaction from bonds, maybe an early tell that 1.082/4 is going to hold the line and we take it step by step next week. It looks just about enough to bring September into play for the first hikes, especially with Lockharts comments. That's a pretty par print holding labor market strength. Plus it was a solid revision up from last month and average earnings didn't put a damper either.

Tracking 98.11 (97.95 DXY) for the really bullish close. Same levels on the pair but my new entries were under constant pressure the last couple of days so I'm holding only very light from higher up. Let's see how the week closes and next week should be really interesting.





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  • #136,532
  • Aug 7, 2015 8:37am Aug 7, 2015 8:37am
Quoting hoom
{quote} momentum didn't occur on us$ bull...084x holding downside and if it doesnt break in these couple of hours we could be done for the day ! hoom
I doubt ... London holding the micro break 1.088x is enough in the context of the target we are talking about ...

You are just witnessing NY opening range after key reports ...thats it ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,533
  • Aug 7, 2015 8:39am Aug 7, 2015 8:39am
Wondering if anyone wants to share an explanation of this "irrational" gold move if there is any
  • #136,534
  • Aug 7, 2015 9:04am Aug 7, 2015 9:04am
Quoting chester123
Wondering if anyone wants to share an explanation of this "irrational" gold move if there is any
you are looking at noise mate. We have been trading the area of the large spike on the run of macro stops last month that left a big range of prices empty with air. We need to find market at these prices first and the last 2 weeks we are just filling with orders that wide range... in the case of the intraday flows let me tell you my opinion:

...if this is what I think it is ....(early bottom hunters clearing longs on a rush ....) ... we'll see in a few but as mentioned in the outlook IMO 1080.xx is the only level to TRACK....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,535
  • Aug 7, 2015 9:28am Aug 7, 2015 9:28am
Thank you Sisse for this. Gold is killing me.. I was short and was in profit now see it moved up... I flipped it to long now It has to break the 1100 for me to make any money today...
Quoting sisse
{quote} you are looking at noise mate. We have been trading the area of the large spike on the run of macro stops last month that left a big range of prices empty with air. We need to find market at these prices first and the last 2 weeks we are just filling with orders that wide range... in the case of the intraday flows let me tell you my opinion: ...if this is what I think it is ....(early bottom hunters clearing longs on a rush ....) ... we'll see in a few but as mentioned in the outlook IMO 1080.xx is the only level to TRACK.... sisse
  • #136,536
  • Edited 1:10pm Aug 7, 2015 12:51pm | Edited 1:10pm
...In a fantastic intraday volatile session Euro managed to hang again by its fingernails the break and Europe went home with 1.088x holding. However after this test, the lows are NAKED. It wont hold another test. A tick below 1.088x will be enough.

Whatever the case, after NFP and over a month in the euro a quick update on the positions. Both technicals and fundamentals are fully aligned after today reports. There is nothing to wait for the rest of legs I am aiming so I am trail stops on the roll today as in my books we have SET the high of the Quarter today and I am expecting the momentum break any moment in the next few sessions....

Quoting hoom
{quote} i dont expect a daily roll under 0900 figure for nfp play ... what would be your take for the roll and opening price for the event ! hoom
Quoting sisse
{quote} 1.095x / 6x ...[check] {quote}
@ hoom, in all honesty I didn't expect we will hold around 1.096x after the reports but bastards played smart and beautifully.

Well done all the ones that trade the intraday leg back up. I didn't see it at all....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,537
  • Aug 7, 2015 1:54pm Aug 7, 2015 1:54pm
Quoting ClinicalEx
About as significant as an unemployment claims report can get. Lowest level since 1973 but not going to get carried away with that since absolutely key technical levels in play. As long as 1.0979 holds the weekly close it's a bull trap with the bastards exerting maximum pain on weak shorts. Btw, I was one yesterday but no real harm done after an accurate intraday entry before the move off 1.0869. 1.0927 is my new, tradeable reference to watch on the pair after the latest moves. Well played to the bulls. @ Tom D Trader . I know you got some...
Deja vu here but I think this is more true than ever. That we're trading at these levels show the big plans afoot despite how nasty things got for the bears on the lower TF's. I do think that we're aligned for a rate hike and now everything depends on 1.098. If the bulls take it we're in standby mode but holding the test makes things very interesting. Super interesting to be trading next week, but first lets see if we can comfortably hold below intraday. A close at 1.098 gives first advantage to the bulls for next week.
  • #136,538
  • Aug 7, 2015 2:24pm Aug 7, 2015 2:24pm
Quoting ClinicalEx
{quote} Deja vu here but I think this is more true than ever. That we're trading at these levels show the big plans afoot despite how nasty things got for the bears on the lower TF's. I do think that we're aligned for a rate hike and now everything depends on 1.098. If the bulls take it we're in standby mode but holding the test makes things very interesting. Super interesting to be trading next week, but first lets see if we can comfortably hold below intraday. A close at 1.098 gives first advantage to the bulls for next week.
Technally and fundamentally is a done deal in my books....let's the market flow and we'll see in a couple of session....Sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,539
  • Aug 7, 2015 3:35pm Aug 7, 2015 3:35pm
Quoting sisse
...In a fantastic intraday volatile session ...... in all honesty I didn't expect we will hold around 1.096x after the reports but bastards played smart and beautifully. Well done all the ones that trade the intraday leg back up. I didn't see it at all.... sisse
From Forex Live

"CFTC Commitments of Traders report Fri 7 Aug 2015 19:46:58 GMT: US dollar net longs hit highest since early June. I suspect the week continued with US dollar longs piling in and after a non-farm payrolls report that was just 'okay' we saw a wave of profit taking and position squaring."

I suppose might this be one contributory explanation for that turn around in E/U today? Really appreciate the expert analysis & your time Sisse ..thanks
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #136,540
  • Aug 7, 2015 4:02pm Aug 7, 2015 4:02pm
Quoting sisse
---->On the fundamental side:

  1. Inline and anything above will just officially imply that we better sit tight for September because RATES are finally coming [check].

Quote
---->On the technical side:

  1. 1.088x [check] open the floodgates to the downside to both short and mid term targets. 1.073x [in play]with ext 1.063x [in play]for the short term and main mid term target 1.049x leaving the parity [TBA] leg only after taking the yearly lows for later this year.

Quote
---->For the actual flows:

  1. Clean map. Inline or better is direct trade 1.095x [check]---> 1.073x with max extension 1.063x in a few session[in play] (or in one or two if we get the overshoot) with soft intermediate stop at 1.088x[check but it wasn't a soft one but a strong one]


..and we rolled. Last week we couldn't take 1.096x and this time bastard rolled to the micro pipet on the flip level. We have Q/M/D/ and intraday charts aligned and W with a too close to call (bastards...je je je).

An epic intraday session in the euro but more importantly we receive a strong confirmation of hikes coming in September today. Trailing mid term stops to the 1.12xx handle and absolutely nothing to do except wait to see how the dice roll ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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