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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

August 3rd, 2015: AUDUSD (4 HOUR): 8:00 candle

The day is bright and fair!

Continued from previous analysis as revealed by my chart in previous posts.

Happy trading!
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Wow the volatility on Friday was unexpected!

Got stopped out at b.e but should be another chance to jump on a few pairs heading lower this week.

Naustingfx - it is a nice set up on the AusUsd, but don't forget there is a rate decision by the RBA tomorrow morning at 5:30am GMT.

My fear here is that price will more or less meander sideways or slightly higher and we would be left in the situation of having an open trade just before a major news release, which essentially equates to gambling unless you are already nicely up and any volatility is unlikely to affect you. For someone who might be over leveraged as well this situation can be an account blower.

I might consider an entry a little higher up in the hope it drops down enough before the rate decision to put a b.e on it or just wait until after the rate decision altogether.

Don't forget even with a stop at b.e or anywhere, volatility from a rate decision can mean it doesn't even get filled at the price you want.

I hope this plays out for you my friend, but just a heads up
Quoting trademin
{quote} Hi JonnyPip, I am on the sideline for now, being hit by suntan! enjoying summer time with family and friends!-good time indeed!But, when possible, I take time to read posts here on Phillip Nel tread. I am glad that some of you guys keep it alive, thank you! Newcomers are reading your posts and learn the strategy for their profits! I am glad for them and for you! Keep the good work! I have some open short positions too in EURUSD! That beast should go down, there is some more room down there I believe, but will see! I should be more active...
Hi Yvon,

Nice to hear you are relaxing with some time off, I think it's always a good idea. Especially as you kept the thread going almost single-handedly at times! You deserve a break

Yes I agree the EurUsd is heading lower, to be honest I think we are likely heading for parity at 1.000 but we will see.

A heads up as well if you want a longer term trade from the beach, the usdcad just broke a 5 year high. I'm already long but if you can get an entry and give it a bit of room, I'd say you can pretty much put the shades back on and forget about it for for a while. Perhaps for 1000 pips or so
Quoting naustingfx
August 3rd, 2015: AUDUSD (4 HOUR): 8:00 candle The day is bright and fair! Continued from previous analysis as revealed by my chart in previous posts. Happy trading! {image}
My opinion- it take a lot of courage to take this trade.

Was analysis this pair - AUDUSD and decided to let go. As MACD is not convincing, it looks weak although price looks very much down trending and has potential for more bearish move on the longer time frame. Price reacting in a relatively narrow range and getting narrower. I would wait for a stronger confirmation from price and MACD to enter and aim for 0.7012 as target (taken from daily time frame).

Ok, this is how I see it. Could be wrong. And do correct me.
Quoting JonnyPip
Wow the volatility on Friday was unexpected! Got stopped out at b.e but should be another chance to jump on a few pairs heading lower this week. Naustingfx - it is a nice set up on the AusUsd, but don't forget there is a rate decision by the RBA tomorrow morning at 5:30am GMT. My fear here is that price will more or less meander sideways or slightly higher and we would be left in the situation of having an open trade just before a major news release, which essentially equates to gambling unless you are already nicely up and any volatility is unlikely...
Agree Jonny. I traded EURUSD and was making nice 45+ pips towards south and price decided to turn around. Good thing I set my stop loss to entry price and was stopped out at break even. Very unexpected indeed.
Quoting nic73
{quote} My opinion- it take a lot of courage to take this trade. Was analysis this pair - AUDUSD and decided to let go. As MACD is not convincing, it looks weak although price looks very much down trending and has potential for more bearish move on the longer time frame. Price reacting in a relatively narrow range and getting narrower. I would wait for a stronger confirmation from price and MACD to enter and aim for 0.7012 as target (taken from daily time frame). Ok, this is how I see it. Could be wrong. And do correct me.
Hi Nic,

I think this is a very fair assessment. No doubt for me this thing is coming down but I would prefer not to commit just yet. The NZD pairs showed on the last rate cut why it can be best to wait until after. That does mean sometimes missing out (aususd seems to be moving lower) but that is ok with me

I will likely be waiting till after the rate decision tomorrow morning before getting involved with the Aus pairs, either after the news or on a pullback, or both.

I have just taken a nice set up from the 21ema in the EurUsd, looks like it could be good to hold, we will see what effect the Usd news at 1:30pm and 3pm has
Quoting naustingfx
August 3rd, 2015: AUDUSD (4 HOUR): 8:00 candle The day is bright and fair! Continued from previous analysis as revealed by my chart in previous posts. Happy trading! {image}
AUDUSD: 4HOUR:

UPDATE: Partial profit taken 25pips, and the remaining position I have left to allow it to run further as I am anticipating a break out to the south.

Position management: Yes, I have set stop loss to about 5pips.

This is sort of positional approach to trading...I have positioned myself so travel to the south with the break out which for me is very likely to happen
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Quoting JonnyPip
Wow the volatility on Friday was unexpected! Got stopped out at b.e but should be another chance to jump on a few pairs heading lower this week. Naustingfx - it is a nice set up on the AusUsd, but don't forget there is a rate decision by the RBA tomorrow morning at 5:30am GMT. My fear here is that price will more or less meander sideways or slightly higher and we would be left in the situation of having an open trade just before a major news release, which essentially equates to gambling unless you are already nicely up and any volatility is unlikely...
I am very happy reading your post. I got a very good insight from your very insightful and logical analysis...I think that is how real traders also think. Your post blessed my soul. Thank you!

FACT: For many years now, I can't really remember the last time I really considered NEWS information before either opening or closing or staying away from a trade. Initially, it was not intentional, but due to the sluggishness of internet subscription that I was using...it was like very distracting or frustrating to me many years ago...so I quit checking anything NEW announcement...Like a surprise to me, everything has been working well with me without the NEW for many years now...

Also I did get bothered from time to them then about the NEWS, so I carefully began to study the 4hour system very closely....and I discovered that there are scenarios that actually tells me when a major NEWS announcement is coming up, and it as well tells me the direction the NEW is very likely to take the market or price to...for me the discovery was very very surprising...and I have watched the scenario for years now and have used it to forecast the market or future direction of price and it worked excellently well....SO I do not even know that there is any news coming up, I just put knowledge and experience together,and by God's grace I make good results...my discovery over the years has really discouraged me from using considering NEWS announcements before taking any trading decision...

I have to say thank you again for your comment. I really learned from it.

Happy trading.

God bless bro.
XauUsd (Gold/Usd): 4HOUR

I took this one too. I also took the EurUsd, and UsdJpy...all of them at almost the same period. So I am holding on all positions for further moves.

EurUsd, I am heading south with it...

UsdJpy, I am heading north with it...

XauUsd heading south with it...

AudUsd, heading south if the break out occurs

I may post all the charts later...

God bless.
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Quoting naustingfx
XauUsd (Gold/Usd): 4HOUR I took this one too. I also took the EurUsd, and UsdJpy...all of them at almost the same period. So I am holding on all positions for further moves. EurUsd, I am heading south with it... UsdJpy, I am heading north with it... XauUsd heading south with it... AudUsd, heading south if the break out occurs I may post all the charts later... God bless. {image}
UPDATE: GOLD/USD

About 44pips gain. Considering to adjust stop loss soon...I am here now watching my trades live...so I have decided to do things manually as usual.

EURUSD: Daily time frame...move seem to be sluggish...maybe because of some sort of NEW too...
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Quoting nic73
{quote} My opinion- it take a lot of courage to take this trade. Was analysis this pair - AUDUSD and decided to let go. As MACD is not convincing, it looks weak although price looks very much down trending and has potential for more bearish move on the longer time frame. Price reacting in a relatively narrow range and getting narrower. I would wait for a stronger confirmation from price and MACD to enter and aim for 0.7012 as target (taken from daily time frame). Ok, this is how I see it. Could be wrong. And do correct me.
Excellent: I think that is a professional approach to trading !!!

Since you can see clearly things or facts that backs up your plan, it is very okay to go with your plan. That is how very discipline traders do also. You are not influenced by anything except by yourself (based on well thought our facts and righteous insights, and good confirmed knowledge built over time...).

FACT: I started using the MACD again recently, for a long time it has just been there on my chart, but not being applied...this is because from my early days in this thread, I bent on learning strictly MARKET RHYTHM price setups...and if you go that way, you will be taking lots of trades even when the MACD is not supporting your direction...

Thank you for your nice comments. Yes! I learned from it.

God bless
Quoting naustingfx
{quote} I am very happy reading your post. I got a very good insight from your very insightful and logical analysis...I think that is how real traders also think. Your post blessed my soul. Thank you! FACT: For many years now, I can't really remember the last time I really considered NEWS information before either opening or closing or staying away from a trade. Initially, it was not intentional, but due to the sluggishness of internet subscription that I was using...it was like very distracting or frustrating to me many years ago...so I quit checking...
Hi Nausting,

No problem I am happy to help if I can

You are correct in what you said, the news often will confirm what is on the chart. The reason for this is because those who already know the result of the news "the smart money" have already priced it into the market.

It mainly depends on how someone trades as to whether the news has much effect or not. I like to enter on the smaller time frames as it can give much better risk:reward ratios and as a result you can be slightly more leveraged in your position. If you have an entry on the 5 or 30m chart of say 5 or so pips, this can be devastating if the news goes against you and your stop doesn't get filled (which it is unlikely to). If you just stick to the 4h chart or daily then more often than not the volatility wont really affect your position, apart from perhaps a normal stop out.

But if the 4h candle is very small and again your stop is very tight with extra leverage, you can still get the same problem. Or if you enter and maybe the price goes against you and is close to your stop, right before major news comes out- it can just blast through it without getting you out until much higher or lower.

Equally if you take a trade in the 4h and good news comes out to support your position, it can be preferable to just let it run rather than cut it short at the 200,89 ma's etc. It is, after all, the indication as to the strength of the given economy.

Quoting JonnyPip
{quote} Hi Nausting, No problem I am happy to help if I can You are correct in what you said, the news often will confirm what is on the chart. The reason for this is because those who already know the result of the news "the smart money" have already priced it into the market. It mainly depends on how someone trades as to whether the news has much effect or not. I like to enter on the smaller time frames as it can give much better risk:reward ratios and as a result you can be slightly more leveraged in your position. If you have an entry on...
Yeah! Great insight...
This is about decision time for me, some of the pairs seem to be sluggish or struggling...I will be taking my stand (decision) on them soon...

Still watching the AudUsd pair...I am also (a little influenced) making use of the information you and nic73 has provided...
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Quoting JonnyPip
{quote} Hi Yvon, Nice to hear you are relaxing with some time off, I think it's always a good idea. Especially as you kept the thread going almost single-handedly at times! You deserve a break Yes I agree the EurUsd is heading lower, to be honest I think we are likely heading for parity at 1.000 but we will see. A heads up as well if you want a longer term trade from the beach, the usdcad just broke a 5 year high. I'm already long but if you can get an entry and give it a bit of room, I'd say you can pretty much put the shades back on...
Again, I agree with you on the USDCAD!- that thing could move up for quite some time.
I am also long on that one!

Yvon
Yvon
Quoting naustingfx
{quote} That is what the rules says; it means that when price has crossed up and down on a moving average, even trend line ( that is, price breaks through a moving average upward and downward a couple of times- just as my chart, the AudUsd indicated); if that moving averages normally acts as a resistance or support to price (hope you know that the 21ema acts as support and resistance levels too???), then it means that it has been violated, and mostly likely will not be able to pose a barrier (will not be able to act as a barrier) to price anymore...that...
I got it now. Thanks for explaining.
Market behaviour is rather unpredictable. Sold NZDUSD this morning and decided to let go of the trade after a doji was formed. Took a minimal profit. And true enough price reversed going north short while later. Glad that I got out of it quick enough. Need to re-plan my next flight again as my anticipation for the pairs I was watching is not likely to happen.

Great patience is the key now to wait for an opportunity to trade. I have a feeling this week might not be able to spot a trade. I think the market is waiting for a lot of news release to react. If the market sentiment allows, I might be able to catch some trades. Otherwise, will have to remain positive while waiting.

I have here 2 charts from AUDUSD - H4 and H1. Price is reacting between 89sma and 200ema. And when it does so, a lot of volatility is involved. And according to the strategy one can trade from the edge of these moving averages. So price is well above the 89sma right now (as show in the chart) but on the H1 time frame, there was a doji i.e. market indecision of its next direction, so I decided to stay away. I am however, not familiar with trading 89sma and 200ema but is anyone here familiar with this? Care to share you thoughts?

Thank you.

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Quoting nic73
Market behaviour is rather unpredictable. Sold NZDUSD this morning and decided to let go of the trade after a doji was formed. Took a minimal profit. And true enough price reversed going north short while later. Glad that I got out of it quick enough. Need to re-plan my next flight again as my anticipation for the pairs I was watching is not likely to happen. Great patience is the key now to wait for an opportunity to trade. I have a feeling this week might not be able to spot a trade. I think the market is waiting for a lot of news release to react....
Hi Nic,

The NzdUsd likely moved higher due to major news coming out today, the first is supposed to be around 3pm and is the price of dairy which has a large effect on the NzdUsd, the other is tonight at 11:45pm with Nzd unemployment rates.

If the news is bad (as many expect), the price will usually rally a bit before the news. This up move tells me the news could push this this pair down and maybe even kick start it south again. Hard to say though so much extra news coming out for the rest of the week; This week is especially busy on the news release side of things.

Again I will likely wait until after the news to look for an entry down with this pair.

In regards to the AusUsd, I have the 73.960 area down as the likely place it will turn back down IF it does indeed turn at the point (It's there now)

If we get a really nice set up here I will likely short - I would paste my graphs but I am having issues uploading, hopefully will get it sorted out soon as it's a lot easier to show things.

Even with a nice short entry we will have to watch it though due to the upcoming USD news this week. So this week should be interesting and also pretty volatile.

Looks like a nice opportunity setting up on copper (for those who trade it), a nice pullback to the 4h 21ema before heading lower.
USDCAD - could be showing a chance to get on the push higher from 21ema

Will have to see how it plays out

Quoting JonnyPip
USDCAD - could be showing a chance to get on the push higher from 21ema Will have to see how it plays out
I think there could be another pull back to 21ema before moving away again towards north. Maybe a pull back to around 1.3063 level. Eyeing this closely for an opportunity to buy.
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