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Percentage of successful traders in Forex Factory

  • #41
  • Aug 3, 2015 2:32am Aug 3, 2015 2:32am
If there are successful traders in FF, you wont find them showing results or participating in meaningless arguments like this.

You're more likely to find them sharing music videos and talking shit about their weekend
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #42
  • Aug 3, 2015 3:57am Aug 3, 2015 3:57am
Quoting Xxavier
I understood your point. My point in return was, is it possible for this to happen for 10 consecutive quarters? {quote}
Sure, anything can happen.
Seems to me you want some kind of confirmation that you can actually make it. Otherwise can't imagine why the stats & results would be useful to you. You don't need any of that. The rest of the world can be loosers and you can be the only one winner. That depends on you & your willingness to keep going & navigate succesfully no matter what happens.
Learning never stops as market evolves with time. Btw beware complacency.

If you are challenged by your emotions, forget the stat's crap & learn how to deal with them.
That's your challenge, your opportunity..so why wasting time with profitability of others?
Markets wispers, just tune in.
  • #43
  • Aug 3, 2015 3:57am Aug 3, 2015 3:57am
Quoting numbnuts
If there are successful traders in FF, you wont find them showing results or participating in meaningless arguments like this. You're more likely to find them sharing music videos and talking shit about their weekend
good point
Markets wispers, just tune in.
  • #44
  • Aug 3, 2015 5:47am Aug 3, 2015 5:47am
Quoting numbnuts
If there are successful traders in FF, you wont find them showing results or participating in meaningless arguments like this. You're more likely to find them sharing music videos and talking shit about their weekend

I'm sure this is right.


Quoting Xxavier
You said your are profitable, Can you tell us how long have you been trading profitable? I have been trading since 2007, I still cannot make decent money from this consistently to quit my job to do this full time ...

... Curious to know your story

You're in the same position as a large number of others, I'm quite sure.

With apologies, it's such an atypical story that it's probably not helpful to anyone else here.

But here's the abbreviated version, at least so I don't appear "churlish" by refusing to answer ...

My father's been a professional, institutional forex trader since before I was born. I'm slightly Asperger-ish and a little obsessed by mathematical things, and have been trading (on demo, for the first few years) since I was 14, and devouring trading textbooks. I've had my moments in the past, but have also been very busy with other things in my life (college education, another business, a now-longstanding, serious chronic illness, etc. etc.) and can claim that my trading has been "consistently profitable" only for a couple of years, now. Like so many others who have eventually "got there", I did so only by gradually developing a real understanding of price action and being willing (eventually) to abandon indicators. I've never touched or had anything to do with automation or MT-4 "Expert Advisors" at all, and never wanted or intended to.

Different approaches can help different people with different outlooks and backgrounds, but in case it might actually help/interest anyone, here's a list of the dozen books that have really helped me to become a successful trader (the last three on the list, in particular, are not "easy reading" and all the benefits I found from them came from very slow, attentive second and third readings) ...

Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom (Van K. Tharp) - an outstanding starting-point
Beyond Technical Analysis (Tushar S. Chande)
Understanding Price Action (Bob Volman)
Naked Forex: High-Probability Techniques for Trading Without Indicators (Alex Nekritin & Walter Peters)
Daytrading (Joe Ross)
Trading The Ross Hook (Joe Ross)
A Mathematician Plays The Market (John Allen Paulos)
Fooled By Randomness (Nassim Nicholas Taleb)
Why People Believe Weird Things (Michael Shermer) - this book and Taleb's, just above, are hugely helpful - albeit indirectly - for "understanding what's going on in forums"!
Trading Price Action Trends - Technical Analysis of Price Charts Bar by Bar for the Serious Trader (Al Brooks)
Trading Price Action Trading Ranges - Technical Analysis of Price Charts Bar by Bar for the Serious Trader (Al Brooks)
Trading Price Action Reversals - Technical Analysis of Price Charts Bar by Bar for the Serious Trader (Al Brooks)

I've read probably 40 others, but the 12 books listed above should probably, in my opinion, be the compulsory "first year's reading list" for an aspiring forex trader.

(This post, on a practical level, may also be worth looking at.)

Good luck!
  • #45
  • Aug 3, 2015 7:00am Aug 3, 2015 7:00am
Quoting smikester
There aren't many successful traders who waste time posting on these threads. The reason is that there are too many here who are ignorant, opinionated and envious. I don't wish to argue with people who think they know how to trade but can't even post a chart. I consider my presence here as a bad habit which I need to lose. I would never post the results of my main trading accounts here.
This is right. I just came here for fun, make friend with any body around the world, not for learn anything from here. My trades are "bored", i can share my opinions but i hate to argue with any body.
BullShit BearShit
  • #46
  • Aug 3, 2015 7:52am Aug 3, 2015 7:52am
Quoting Xxavier
I am not sure if someone asked this before. I am trying to find out are there any successful traders in Forex Factory and if there are how many (as a percentage of total members). Here is the definition of success. Does not matter the return (I assume the gains are more than the minimum wage of the residing country) or capital but a consistent monthly gain for at least two years. I know anybody can say they are successful but to be considered as a successful trader you need to show the proof, either publicly or using pm Let us find out how many...
If you truly knew the scope to which some individuals could read and churn profit from the market day in day out your eyes would boggle and your brain would explode, and of course they would never hear the end of it, which is also to do with the reason why you will never hear the start of it on such a public like this.
  • #47
  • Aug 3, 2015 7:53am Aug 3, 2015 7:53am
Quoting etrade360
i hate to argue with any body.

Most commendable attitude. I wish I could say the same about myself. All too often I fail to resist the urges to correct factual misinformation and to make comments that come across more critically than I'd intended - not habits conducive to posting favourably in forums, unfortunately. I mean nobody any harm at all.
  • #48
  • Aug 3, 2015 8:16am Aug 3, 2015 8:16am
Quoting Xela
{quote} I'm sure this is right. {quote} You're in the same position as a large number of others, I'm quite sure. With apologies, it's such an atypical story that it's probably not helpful to anyone else here. But here's the abbreviated version, at least so I don't appear "churlish" by refusing to answer ...

There's a guy in my town who has aspergers... He created a 500m museum for his personal art works.. Runs it at a 1m a year loss... Just cause he can... He's like my idol!!!, parks in my street sometimes.. Came from nothing
  • #49
  • Aug 3, 2015 9:16am Aug 3, 2015 9:16am
Quoting numbnuts
If there are successful traders in FF, you wont find them showing results or participating in meaningless arguments like this. You're more likely to find them sharing music videos and talking shit about their weekend
yez enjoy the live. why should showing money?
we don't predict, we only ride
  • #50
  • Aug 3, 2015 9:59am Aug 3, 2015 9:59am
Quoting Kong
{quote} There's a guy in my town who has aspergers... He created a 500m museum for his personal art works.. Runs it at a 1m a year loss... Just cause he can... He's like my idol!!!, parks in my street sometimes.. Came from nothing

Very interesting; thanks for posting it, and the link.

I like the mention there of his "quantitative approach to gambling"!

Trading, I think, is very well suited to "Aspies".

I'm not at the extreme end of the spectrum at all, and rarely comment on it in public, because, you know, misperceptions still abound ... some people even imagine that "Aspies" are somehow a bit "retarded" (they're obviously people who are unaware that the incidence of Asperger's among university professors is significantly higher than it is among the general population! ).
  • #51
  • Aug 3, 2015 10:11am Aug 3, 2015 10:11am
Quoting etrade360
{quote} This is right. I just came here for fun, make friend with any body around the world, not for learn anything from here. My trades are "bored", i can share my opinions but i hate to argue with any body.
Classic smikester Monday morning post. Sorry everybody!
Gone to a better place
  • #52
  • Aug 3, 2015 10:50am Aug 3, 2015 10:50am
Quoting Xela
{quote} Very interesting; thanks for posting it, and the link. I like the mention there of his "quantitative approach to gambling"! Trading, I think, is very well suited to "Aspies". I'm not at the extreme end of the spectrum at all, and rarely comment on it in public, because, you know, misperceptions still abound ... some people even imagine that "Aspies" are somehow a bit "retarded" (they're obviously people who are unaware that the incidence of Asperger's among university professors is significantly higher than it is among the general population!...
Yeah he's really an interesting fellow, that wiki link doesn't do him much justice... Oh man I'm fully retarded, just never been branded with any cool labels like aspires lmao.. Somehow...

Keep killing
  • #53
  • Aug 3, 2015 11:02am Aug 3, 2015 11:02am
Quoting smikester
There aren't many successful traders who waste time posting on these threads. The reason is that there are too many here who are ignorant, opinionated and envious. I don't wish to argue with people who think they know how to trade but can't even post a chart. I consider my presence here as a bad habit which I need to lose. I would never post the results of my main trading accounts here.
Indeed, I second that, especially the bad habit. Having said that, I met quiet a few interesting people here and made some good contacts, so that is probably my excuse or incentive to stick to that bad habit.

The ongoing demand of proof is just laughable. I have no intent to sell ANYTHING here, in fact FX was my get-rid-of-ordinary-business card. Why should I proof anything? That just doesn't make sense. It's not my problem if people believe me or not, for gods sake I'm not an effing religion. On top of that, I give a shit about percentage, I give a shit about Win/Loss ratio, I give a you know what about fixed Stoplosses and other idiotic rules made for people who seek certainty where there isn't any.
  • #54
  • Aug 3, 2015 12:42pm Aug 3, 2015 12:42pm
Maybe I'm mis reading this but where on the charts on the first page does it state that this is the percentage of traders who are profitable? To me it reads that the figures are the amount of profit/loss generated under that brokerage. That is to say that IB for example had an increase in theirs traders overall profits but the losses still outweighed them?
the 38% average profitability could have been generated by select few 'good traders'
confused.
  • #55
  • Aug 3, 2015 12:56pm Aug 3, 2015 12:56pm
Interesting, though, isn't it, to see the hugely statistically significant overall differences between (for example) traders at Interactive Brokers, and those at (for example) FX-CM? Successful traders, by and large, are not, of course, trading through retail bucketshops, and there are reasons for that.

It's very, very easy indeed to fail to appreciate the importance and significance of this and to make the mistake of imagining that it's just because the more successful traders tend overall to have bigger accounts (though that's doubtless true, as well). The reality is that it's a two-way street: traders at (for example) Interactive Brokers are not only more likely to be there because they have more money; they're also more likely to have more money because they're there.
  • #56
  • Aug 3, 2015 1:28pm Aug 3, 2015 1:28pm
Quoting Spoon138
Maybe I'm mis reading this but where on the charts on the first page does it state that this is the percentage of traders who are profitable? To me it reads that the figures are the amount of profit/loss generated under that brokerage. That is to say that IB for example had an increase in theirs traders overall profits but the losses still outweighed them? the 38% average profitability could have been generated by select few 'good traders' confused.
Yes, you're misreading the charts.

The percentages are based upon the # of accounts & NOT on the amount of money so the results are percentage of profitable traders.
  • #57
  • Aug 3, 2015 2:20pm Aug 3, 2015 2:20pm
thx srt.
I just don't see where it says that? I assume there is more on the original source I guess. to me it reads profit/loss and profitability. not %profitable.
I stand corrected.
  • #58
  • Aug 3, 2015 3:01pm Aug 3, 2015 3:01pm
Quoting numbnuts
If there are successful traders in FF, you wont find them showing results or participating in meaningless arguments like this. You're more likely to find them sharing music videos and talking shit about their weekend
Thanks for your post, it made my day
MY SITTING, NEVER MY THINKING!
  • #59
  • Aug 3, 2015 3:49pm Aug 3, 2015 3:49pm
Quoting FerruFx
These reports don't tell us nothing but the profitable % within this period (Q2, Q3, etc ...). The real long term profitable % is certainly far less. Keep in mind that in the Q2 % in profit, there are certainly who are in loss in Q3 ... In other words, the profitable traders in Q2 aren't necessary the same profitable traders in Q3 ...
I have to agree, these reports are worse than useless for the reasons that you point out.

At the time that these quarterly NFA reports were originally released, a group of us did a little experiment that lasted just over 2 years. We traded a bunch of totally random systems with fixed 1:1 stops and targets. At one point we had over 1000 random systems running on various demo accounts. When we analysed the data, we found that around 30% of our systems were profitable over any given 3 month period. After a period of 2 years only around 5% of accounts were profitable.

Try simulating this in Excel and you'll find broadly the same figures.

If you look at the NFA historical figures broken down by broker, you can even see the correlation between win rate and spread !

The author John Foreman who writes for quite a few of the forex forums analysed real life non regulated / non US broker data, and whilst the quarterly performance figures matched those quoted by the NFA, the long term performance figures were truly shocking, they were significantly worse than we achieved from our random systems, and I do mean MUCH worse

This 30% winners nonsense is precisely what you'd expect to see by random chance even if all market participants were totally clueless. All we are seeing is survivorship bias

The real figure for profitable traders is way less than 5%, all objective evidence supports that.

It doesnt really help that the NFA classifies anyone with a brokerage account as a trader. I'm sure theres probably some useful insights to be gained from this data, but using it to figure out the percentage of profitable traders is clearly nonsense.
  • #60
  • Aug 3, 2015 4:16pm Aug 3, 2015 4:16pm
I do find the following percentage to be highly accurate.
The percentage of bullshitters on these forums is extremely high. They are grouped into 2 classes. The wannabees and the scammers. You pick em'. The Interactive section is hilarious.

Oh and numbnuts' post is spot on.
SPC * Swollen PocketZ Crew!
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