Flag trading the trend

ok Erasmus I gave you wrong score for april that was mays results heres my Aprils results 25 wins 7 losses 7 be trades. there were 14 30 tick wins 8 20 tick wins and 3 25 tick wins totaling 655 ticks. there were 5 20 tick losses and 2 10 tick losses totaling 120 ticks total with the b e trades 542 for the month no Wednesday trading

long 85 will move stop to + 1 end of session

be+1

+1 that's is for me today todays total 21

Nobody else trades evening session? Was good one again

Lots of good backtesting research recently, I see.

You guys arleady know my concerns about confirmation bias when doing manual backtests, but for the purposes of this post, let's assume there is none... because I have a second, greater concern : execution efficiency. Say your backtest shows 80% winners : how many of those will you take and manage correctly in real time ? Some winners you may stop out early on a test of the entry area, others you may miss because of distraction, such that the real win % ends up much lower.

My personal approach, based on my live stats and knowing my tendency not to hold tests of my entry area is to stress-test my method by assuming only one third full wins to target, one third b/e +1, one third full losers. If it still looks good, then the method is likely very tradeable & also I will be able to trade through losing streaks when they occur (as they inevitably will). In practice, I find my b/e trades typically average more like b/e +2 (I call anything from -1 to +3 b/e), and my losers average around 0.6 of my stop.... but my average winner is short of the full target, too.

I have had quarters with >100 trades and win % up to 86%, but more typically they come out around 60%, so it's very important to me to know that I will be reasonably profitable a this level.

Some food for thought this Monday morning...

let the games begin we start off by being in a downtrend

long setup 09

03 short b/e +1

saw that but it was to close to low of day

if this closes lower then new long at 06

Stop moved to +1

be

Yep

+30

<p>Nice 123 short to start week to get back into trend

yes nice end to frustrating day

Post chart erasmus for all to see

Its a shame we b e on first trade before it shot up but +31 for day is fine