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AUD/USD

  • #91,361
  • Jul 24, 2015 12:16am Jul 24, 2015 12:16am
Quoting tashkent
{quote} Hey RT, thanks for all the explanations and honestly i was not aware of most of the factors you have mentioned currently i am running about 20 different pairs and usually my entries are based on quick visual analysis of weekly to hourly charts so if someone asks why i took a particular position i would not even remember. what you have wrote indeed makes lots of sense. Good luck!


I trust techs over funds as I have found usually the banks and larger players move the markets before the funds really become clear. The AUD may also have been influenced by some of the bigger players hinting that a rate decrease looks likely in August. Personally, it all means nothing if the info only becomes clear after the move has been made.

Keep eyeballing
  • #91,362
  • Jul 24, 2015 12:26am Jul 24, 2015 12:26am
Quoting tashkent
{quote} australia is one of the biggest gold and silver production countries
Correct Tashkent
  • #91,363
  • Jul 24, 2015 12:59am Jul 24, 2015 12:59am
Quoting HareshBM
AUDUSD's inability to clear 0.7500 mark resistance seems to increase the prospects of further downside. The bearish outlook gets confirmed once the pair drops back below 0.7440-35 immediate horizontal support, which if broken would increase its vulnerability to continue drifting lower, possibly below 0.7300 mark.
Bang-on, AUDUSD drops below 0.7300 mark and now seems to extend the weakening trend towards sub-0.7200 mark.
Now seems unlikely to register any pull-back beyond 0.7350 level.
  • #91,364
  • Jul 24, 2015 2:41am Jul 24, 2015 2:41am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #91,365
  • Jul 24, 2015 3:00am Jul 24, 2015 3:00am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #91,366
  • Jul 24, 2015 4:38am Jul 24, 2015 4:38am
AB=CD completion on the daily at .7282, it will be interesting to see what happens at this level. Rejected 3 times on the hourly
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AU DAILY.png Size: 46 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: au hourly.png Size: 8 KB
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #91,367
  • Jul 24, 2015 5:08am Jul 24, 2015 5:08am
Hey guys!

So it's been a very interesting day hey? The fact that the Aud had dropped so much worries me, does this mean it's less, or more likely to rise again in the near future? On top of this, is the level it will rise to lower?

To me, as a newbie to the whole thing, (and I'm really a newbie, I know next to nothing about how currency works) I hate to say this but it looks like I predict Aud to be at around .70 in November when I go to the US from Australia? Do you guys agree with this at all?
  • #91,368
  • Jul 24, 2015 6:53am Jul 24, 2015 6:53am
IMO, a critical 4H candle close in 10 minutes. A close below the harmonic completion at .7282 (also the BC 224FIB extension), clearly opens the door to the much anticipated .7200 mark (also roughly the BC 261FIB extension)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au.png Size: 52 KB
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #91,369
  • Jul 24, 2015 7:11am Jul 24, 2015 7:11am
Quoting Expo33
IMO, a critical 4H candle close in 10 minutes. A close below the harmonic completion at .7282 (also the BC 224FIB extension), clearly opens the door to the much anticipated .7200 mark (also roughly the BC 261FIB extension) {image}
The Aussie made new lows today. Its not hard to know that this pair will hit lower.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #91,370
  • Jul 24, 2015 3:48pm Jul 24, 2015 3:48pm
Quoting Ssm
{quote} The Aussie made new lows today. Its not hard to know that this pair will hit lower.
For me nothing is certain or that easy, but price looks like it is closing out the week right on that harmonic completion area of .7282

"Isn't it Ironic" - Alanis Morissette
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #91,371
  • Jul 27, 2015 1:37am Jul 27, 2015 1:37am
Quoting Expo33
{quote} For me nothing is certain or that easy, but price looks like it is closing out the week right on that harmonic completion area of .7282 "Isn't it Ironic" - Alanis Morissette
Very obvious that there are fighting at .73 levels. Is support turning into resistance? .73 levels could be the levels where bears will sell.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #91,372
  • Jul 27, 2015 3:11am Jul 27, 2015 3:11am
Traders whats your idea about touching 0.4700 on aud usd? after 0.6000 ?
  • #91,373
  • Jul 27, 2015 7:43am Jul 27, 2015 7:43am
Quoting Ssm
{quote} Very obvious that there are fighting at .73 levels. Is support turning into resistance? .73 levels could be the levels where bears will sell.
.73 being tested and resisted several times today. Very clearly that there are sellers at this level.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #91,374
  • Jul 27, 2015 8:41am Jul 27, 2015 8:41am
AUDUSD is trending pretty strong now I'm looking to buy at one of the retracement levels I will use candlestick patterns as confirmation
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #91,375
  • Jul 27, 2015 10:44am Jul 27, 2015 10:44am
Quoting Adouble21
AUDUSD is trending pretty strong now I'm looking to buy at one of the retracement levels I will use candlestick patterns as confirmation {image}
The upmove seems weak. Just look at how high EURUSD and GBPUSD climbed today. We are still near the .73 line.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #91,376
  • Jul 27, 2015 12:18pm Jul 27, 2015 12:18pm
The momentum behind the downtrend has been considerable, this pair won't turn around quickly, but it will turn, it will be one of those charts that creeps up without notice and without any worthy notification from indicators
  • #91,377
  • Jul 27, 2015 1:20pm Jul 27, 2015 1:20pm
stayed out of AUDUSD trade confirmation was not met instead looking at USDCHF to buy
  • #91,378
  • Jul 27, 2015 1:30pm Jul 27, 2015 1:30pm
Quoting Ssm
{quote} The upmove seems weak. Just look at how high EURUSD and GBPUSD climbed today. We are still near the .73 line.
Friday AUDUSD broke below some very strong support. The 'weak' move up today so far, has just been a retest of what it broke.

There are only a couple hours left in the market for today's candle...but this is a picture perfect example.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDD1.png Size: 20 KB


Monthly Trendline sits around .7120....this would be a good target for this short to reach. Just offering my view.
  • #91,379
  • Jul 27, 2015 1:54pm Jul 27, 2015 1:54pm
Quoting moonhead
Hey guys! So it's been a very interesting day hey? The fact that the Aud had dropped so much worries me, does this mean it's less, or more likely to rise again in the near future? On top of this, is the level it will rise to lower? To me, as a newbie to the whole thing, (and I'm really a newbie, I know next to nothing about how currency works) I hate to say this but it looks like I predict Aud to be at around .70 in November when I go to the US from Australia? Do you guys agree with this at all?
Moonie,

Been thinking about your situation for a little, and I'm confident that exchanging your US dollars for Aussie dollars right before you take your trip should be optimal.

Unless AUDUSD hits 0.6500 before your trip, just wait it out and the macro momentum will take care of itself.

Forget the day trading pip scalpers on this thread and others... they do not care much for macro (which your situation is a perfect example of)

Here is a good article on the macro environment aussie is experiencing... hopefully it will allow you to read it.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/a99e3...#axzz3h4MPj86O
  • #91,380
  • Jul 27, 2015 5:04pm Jul 27, 2015 5:04pm
wow the powers that be sure don't want this pair to rise in price thats for sure. Just looking at the fall right back down again from todays high. What a dog of a pair this is.
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