NZD/USD

he is selling nzd in G/N and E/N i.e. he is buying gbp and euro against nzd hence the longs.

thanks for the clarification.

Your'e welcome

Thanks indeed!

My bad it is actually "GBP", just wanted to dot my "i" and cross my "t" because I am OCD

daily divergence to sell has formed, i am expecting it to go down further.

Looking forward into August, not a trade recommendation, just sharing my infantile view on the Kiwi.

Technically, we just had a minor but healthy retracement last week into the top of the descending channel on the daily. I can't imagine anyone building a long term bullish position at this point so it makes me wonder if last weeks 200 pip retrace was MM's running retail shorts out of the game. I don't know or really care, but I am glad it happened. (well, not that happy as my lack of discipline got me into my short positions way too early)

Fundamentals:

1) Obviously interest rates are always a hot topic, especially when both countries are considering rate changes. The RBNZ has been very transparent about their intentions to cut rates, and as such, it seems that any significant moves have already been priced in before the news hits the wires. The bottom line however, is that the RBNZ has made it clear that more rates cuts (or at least one in the near future) are coming. I don't think they have much choice at this point given the dreadful situation in the dairy market. Still, the RBNZ must consider any potential bubbles in the real estate market created from too many rate cuts. From what I have read the only potential problems would be more likely to occur in the bigger cities, not in rural areas. On the other side of the aisle is the US Fed, or as we like to say, the professional criminals. The perception is that they will raise rates and sometimes perception is all you need. Personally, I am still not convinced that they will raise rates this year. Regardless, rates are only going up or staying the same so just that fact coupled with more Kiwi cuts makes for a dynamic situation with this pair.

2) In my opinion, dairy prices are the main catalyst that have pushed the Kiwi down over 2000 pips in the last year. Just superimpose a one year GDT price chart over the NU chart and it is plain to see. The next GDT auction is August 4th, and by all accounts, the drop in dairy prices may not be over quite yet for many reasons which I have listed below:

a) Dairy supply is on the rise as is usual for this time of year in NZ. Cheap feed prices have added even more fuel to that production fire.
b) Chinese demand has plummeted this year compared to 2014. In addition, it has been surmised that Chinese warehouses have upwards of
300,000 metric tons of milk powder in storage from their 2014 imports further pressuring already dwindling demand.
c) Adding insult to injury is the ban that has been put on Russia due to sanctions resulting from the Ukrainian conflict.

This week at a glance:

Wednesday's FOMC statement, probably more of the same. Maybe the usual uneventful gum flapping with the proverbial "kick the can down the road" one more time.

Thursday's advanced US GDP print along with Unemployment claims.

Also on Thursday is NZ's business confidence print. Last month's reading was negative for the first time since 2011 so it will be interesting to see what the number is this month, another negative reading could add some fuel for the bears.

Next Week:

August 4th GDT auction (IMO, a possible time bomb)

Conclusion:

I expect continued pressure on the Kiwi both from a fundamental and technical perspective. A potential weekly AB=CD completion at roughly 6080. First target conservatively at 6260 with a second target at 6120

Green pips to all, have a safe week trading

Thanks for this...and well said! Similar bias here...will look to close some shorts and leave some running...price at support here...look to add short at better price if this bounce up..

it was only ever going to be a temporary relief rally for the kiwi, RBNZ will probably cut at the next 3 rate meetings, the economy is slowing down, and the data is set to weaken - the kiwi is going lower, ocr is heading for approx 2% and nzdusd for 0.60, I like long gbpnzd as the rate divergences are stark between BOE & RBNZ - one central bank is raising rates and one is dropping them use theses pullbacks in the main trend as opportunities to buy
good luck

Cheers, looking forward to the London open to see what kind of price action we get.

Agree, the bigger margin is tough on smaller accounts but certainly seems to have great potential

NZD/USD Started off strong today for the first 4 hours of market opening I would be looking to buy at the area where I have the horizontal line at TP and SL set at support and resistance levels

Prices broke up higher than expected moved my buy limit to 38.2 retracement or 50.0 retracement. 38.2 shows recent support and resistance levels holding in the past let's see how it goes

Ok prices finally hit my buying zone I'm long on this now stop loss is set on bottom green line and TP is top green line

NZDUSD just hit my TP closed for $89 I also went long on EURUSD but that's on another thread great trading guys !

pin bar forming at H1....keep shorting yeah...0.64 is my target

edit: no pin bar, just rejection...anyway still short, H&S in the forming there

dude, big leverage there...5 lot on 3k account...I know its demo but don't you train this habit=p
my 2cents here..

4hr Chanel... Resistance.

Last time it was a good 100Pip short.

Lets see.

Looks like 4hr resistance is strong.

It's coming down. Good sign.

Also 1hr TDI is going down. Good sign for short.

Will take some profit at 6580 DPV.

KC.