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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #2,881
  • Jul 26, 2015 5:06am Jul 26, 2015 5:06am
Quoting RabbitWolf
{quote} Some notes saved from thread, when Claudia was making EA... maybe some things changed now, but this will give basic idea. Found it in my files {image} When there is no strong trend developed, Price may trade a lot between R1 and S1, The mid line between Central and R1 or S1 is important too, it may give unexpected reversals when trend starting to change. When market is slower, can get good trades from R1 or S1 in opposite direction, but on strong news day Price can run through two pivots or more in 1 day. Not speaking about GBP/NZD ...
lol did I write that ?? Guess so and is erebus still around - as Billy said it seems so long ago.

G/N if you catch right will fly had some fun with it and some shocks. Can trend well. Spreads can be crazy.
  • #2,882
  • Jul 26, 2015 11:23am Jul 26, 2015 11:23am
[quote=RabbitWolf;8400852]{quote} When there is no strong trend developed, Price may trade a lot between R1 and S1, The mid line (Mid Pivot ) between Central and R1 or S1 is important too, it may give unexpected reversals when trend starting to change. When market is slower, can get good trades from R1 or S1 in opposite direction, but on strong news day Price can run through two pivots or more in 1 day.

Hi Rabbit, that is why it is so contradictory support /resistance trading...
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #2,883
  • Jul 26, 2015 11:25am Jul 26, 2015 11:25am
I was reading some interesting info on trading pivots this morning but forgot to save it lol, mainly stats I am interested in, I shall look again..
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #2,884
  • Edited 12:45pm Jul 26, 2015 12:29pm | Edited 12:45pm
Quoting billytt
I was reading some interesting info on trading pivots this morning but forgot to save it lol, mainly stats I am interested in, I shall look again..
You better find it and post link for Pivot addicts .

As for myself i look more at Pivots and fib zones then at S/R . Will not mention BBs

By the way GBP/NZD Monthly fun chart . S/ R ? (Pivot history chart is above )

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZDmicroMonthly.png Size: 46 KB





Gold is fun chart too, give me a lot of temptations for scalping....... to mess up my account

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GOLDmicroH4 weekly candle.png Size: 33 KB
  • #2,885
  • Jul 26, 2015 12:43pm Jul 26, 2015 12:43pm
I remember, the probability of Daily Pivot being hit is 70% or a bit over and that is excellent. I have no idea about trading that at the moment as I know it does bob around before moving. and I noticed that if the daily pivot isn't touched it will the day after.
I only looked at a couple of pairs but I will be looking into it now that I have finished with the 4 hour breakout..
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #2,886
  • Jul 26, 2015 12:52pm Jul 26, 2015 12:52pm
Quoting RabbitWolf
{quote} You better find it and post link for Pivot addicts . As for myself i look more at Pivots and fib zones then at S/R . Will not mention BBs By the way GBP/NZD Monthly fun chart . S/ R ? (Pivot history chart is above ) {image} Gold is fun chart too, give me a lot of temptations for scalping....... to mess up my account {image}
lol here's a tune then
Inserted Video
nothing to do with much just fun.
  • #2,887
  • Jul 26, 2015 12:58pm Jul 26, 2015 12:58pm
Quoting billytt
I remember, the probability of Daily Pivot being hit is 70% or a bit over and that is excellent. I have no idea about trading that at the moment as I know it does bob around before moving. and I noticed that if the daily pivot isn't touched it will the day after. I only looked at a couple of pairs but I will be looking into it now that I have finished with the 4 hour breakout..
Unless market is in a strong up/down dp will get hit more often than not - 70% sounds a good number.
  • #2,888
  • Jul 26, 2015 2:13pm Jul 26, 2015 2:13pm
Quoting billytt
I remember, the probability of Daily Pivot being hit is 70% or a bit over and that is excellent. I have no idea about trading that at the moment as I know it does bob around before moving. and I noticed that if the daily pivot isn't touched it will the day after. I only looked at a couple of pairs but I will be looking into it now that I have finished with the 4 hour breakout..
Some observation about Pivot not getting hit

After strong move (let say down) big ADR day, need to watch where Asia opens next day.

1. If Price opens far away from Central Pivot, especially if opens below mid pivot (line between Central and S1), it may not hit Pivot, but continue trend for 1 more day . And it can be very strong move down, if Pivot not touched..... That means trend is very strong.
Moving averages have to be sloping down , not flat.
4 hour BB most likely pointing down, not flat

2. If Asia opens very close to Pivot, London will probably touch Pivot and attempt to brake it or fake brake it. Then watch for that mid pivot line above pivot, and 20 SMA Day, 20 SMA 4 hour , that can be stoppers. Or S/R lines . Others watch Camarilla lines too.

So it is important to notice distance Asia open line and Pivot... Also see which direction Asia is going and how strong. First 15 min candle Asia open ? And slope.
.
After strong move price still have a lot of room for turning and it needs to create some congestion first, in order to turn, and it keeps falling... Pivot does not get touched, because is was too big distance or strong slope down (Slope of big Moving averages)


Ups went too philosophical , closing my mouth.


Note: i use Asia day open Pivots. Asia opens - new pivots start. Maybe Claudias trading a bit different, because she use London Pivots. Do not have any experience watching that.
  • #2,889
  • Jul 26, 2015 4:19pm Jul 26, 2015 4:19pm
Hopefully when I get my head together (I do not feel 100%) I shall test daily breaks/ibs +obs with daily pivot and check out adr as Bunny said,
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #2,890
  • Jul 26, 2015 4:20pm Jul 26, 2015 4:20pm
a new week to trade so trade well all
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #2,891
  • Edited 4:34pm Jul 26, 2015 4:23pm | Edited 4:34pm
I do not know the stats for Sunday using pivot but looking at cable it should drop down to it going off what I said earlier

edit,, but that bull pin on Friday suggests different lol
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #2,892
  • Edited 5:10pm Jul 26, 2015 4:36pm | Edited 5:10pm
Quoting billytt
I do not know the stats for Sunday using pivot but looking at cable it should drop down to it going off what I said earlier
Cable New Weekly Central 1.5550 , can be attempts to test it sooner or later . Just warning, not giving any trading suggestions.

Monthly S1 1.5440
Weekly S1 1.5428


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,893
  • Jul 26, 2015 4:39pm Jul 26, 2015 4:39pm
Quoting RabbitWolf
{quote} Cable New Weekly Central 1.5550 , can be attempts to test it sooner or later .
maybe plus that is just above R1, (omg I speak like a trader)
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #2,894
  • Jul 26, 2015 5:17pm Jul 26, 2015 5:17pm
Cable, we have an inside bar on the 4 hour it will be worth looking at. maybe 2 ibs...

edit I just made edit regarding ibs..
ib on weekly too
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #2,895
  • Jul 27, 2015 3:19am Jul 27, 2015 3:19am
CABLE,,so far Fri high and inside bar high broken that was the easy part, I went for Monday pivot trade(PP meet) and that was good but I think it was more luck but was good. I did feel very uneasy trading it though....
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #2,896
  • Jul 27, 2015 3:42am Jul 27, 2015 3:42am
I am still not trading E/J due to high minimum stop penalty, But last Fri was ib on daily which was broken plus the high .
I have not posted the stats for ages but they are all good
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #2,897
  • Jul 27, 2015 4:11am Jul 27, 2015 4:11am
E/J Daily breakout Stats from 1st Jan until 26th July..

Trades,,, 166...
Win,,, 147...
loss,,, 20... that is 88% hit rate.
Remember these stats include the turbulent gaps and maybe an error with one trade showing a win when in fact it was a retrace win . Still good and hard to beat.

edit, I just made correction from 89% to 88% due to a second loss lol.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #2,898
  • Jul 27, 2015 4:15am Jul 27, 2015 4:15am
I was showing stats with G/J but will stop, The stats are better than E/J but I personally do not like trading that pair. Maybe I will show cable stats.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #2,899
  • Jul 27, 2015 4:40am Jul 27, 2015 4:40am
G/U Daily Break Stats from 1st July 2015 until 26th July.
Trades,, 24...
Win,, 20...
Loss,, 4...
That is 83% strike rate. with a minimum of 10 pips.
I will back date stats when I get time...
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #2,900
  • Jul 27, 2015 4:54am Jul 27, 2015 4:54am
Quoting billytt
G/U Daily Break Stats from 1st July 2015 until 26th July. Trades,, 24... Win,, 20... Loss,, 4... That is 83% strike rate. with a minimum of 10 pips. I will back date stats when I get time...
stop loss?
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