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Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

  • #381
  • Jul 24, 2015 1:20pm Jul 24, 2015 1:20pm
Quoting Sis.yphus
Been seeing a lot of people talking about using the previous candles close direction as a way to give an indicator of what the next candle will do. Hate to burst any ones bubble but the previous CLOSED candles provide no edge at all. If candles matter, the ONLY one that will and does is the current(this applies to CANDLES not PRICE, they are very different. candles are made up by price. Price is not made up by candles). Please see the study I did a few weeks ago(copy and pasting from an email I sent a buddy the other day so I apologize if it is...
Amazing how well this jives with 'Prices are 97% recurrent, 3% transient".

Think how this 'efficiency' may be a positive thing : - )

All you need is a line is correct : - )
  • #382
  • Jul 24, 2015 1:41pm Jul 24, 2015 1:41pm
Quoting SunSaltwater
{quote} Amazing how well this jives with 'Prices are 97% recurrent, 3% transient". Think how this 'efficiency' may be a positive thing : - ) All you need is a line is correct : - )
Hey, welcome back sunsaltwater. Glad to have you back. Sent you a pm sometime
  • #383
  • Jul 24, 2015 1:54pm Jul 24, 2015 1:54pm
Quoting ephisi
{quote} Hey, welcome back sunsaltwater. Glad to have you back. Sent you a pm sometime
Hi ephisi, thank you. Not sure how long I will be back posting, mess that happened before is really not worth even a second of my time.

Just wanted to post that thought above.....people speak about 'efficient' markets all the time, isn't that what recurrent and TZ's are all about. Think about it, TZ's give you a way to take advantage / see the opportunity in 'efficient' markets by showing you the non-efficient / exposed / TZ areas before they get filled and become 'efficient / recurrent' again. So interesting, well to me at least LOL.
  • #384
  • Jul 24, 2015 2:35pm Jul 24, 2015 2:35pm
Not to hi-jack the thread, honestly the post within this thread on 'efficient' markets just really got me excited to post something on here again in the hopes it may help someone. If it detracts from the thread please delete. This thread actually makes a lot of sense to me as I use a simple line, could say single candle stick to enter my trades but I do need to see the price history to see the opportunity / in-efficient / TZ areas to trade towards.

I firmly believe reading this thread and looking at TZ zones for opportunity will help anyone struggling out there to gain a better understanding of how price / markets move around. Will it make you a millionaire, I have no idea. But if you are currently looking at a chart with lots of indicators everywhere perhaps watching these ideas for a few days may help you focus on price a little more and how there is an actual rhythm and flow to what can just look like a mess.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TZ.jpg Size: 164 KB
  • #385
  • Jul 24, 2015 3:00pm Jul 24, 2015 3:00pm
This is the funniest thread i have ever read on this site. The premise is based on "a candle opens and either goes up or down from the open, 95% of the time."
That's it!!! wayyyyy tooo funnny!!! good luck with that!!
  • #386
  • Jul 24, 2015 3:17pm Jul 24, 2015 3:17pm
Quoting nealpek
This is the funniest thread i have ever read on this site. The premise is based on "a candle opens and either goes up or down from the open, 95% of the time." That's it!!! wayyyyy tooo funnny!!! good luck with that!!
nealpek, you misquoted.

Post 1 quote:

""95% of the time price will close above or below the open." Amateurs will never see the edge in this quote, unless a professional point it out where the edge lies within this quote."


"a candle opens and either goes up or down from the open, 95% of the time." is not the same as "95% of the time price will close above or below the open."
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #387
  • Jul 24, 2015 3:22pm Jul 24, 2015 3:22pm
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} nealpek, you misquoted. Post 1 quote: ""95% of the time price will close above or below the open." Amateurs will never see the edge in this quote, unless a professional point it out where the edge lies within this quote." "a candle opens and either goes up or down from the open, 95% of the time." is not the same as "95% of the time price will close above or below the open."
O.K., i stand corrected. 95% of the time price will close above or below the open... OF COURSE IT WILL!!! IT MUST!!!
Curious how this info can help my trading...
  • #388
  • Edited 3:51pm Jul 24, 2015 3:33pm | Edited 3:51pm
l
  • #389
  • Jul 24, 2015 4:17pm Jul 24, 2015 4:17pm
ll
Persistence will get it. Consistency will keep it.
  • #390
  • Jul 24, 2015 4:57pm Jul 24, 2015 4:57pm
Quoting nealpek
{quote} O.K., i stand corrected. 95% of the time price will close above or below the open... OF COURSE IT WILL!!! IT MUST!!! Curious how this info can help my trading...

Start reading from here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...39#post8370739 If it is not obvious, please feel free to ask questions.

"Successful people ask better questions, and as a result, they get better answers." - Tony Robbins

Socratic method is named after the classical Greek philosopher Socrates. It is a form of inquiry and discussion between individuals, based on asking and answering questions to stimulate critical thinking and to illuminate ideas.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #391
  • Jul 24, 2015 5:12pm Jul 24, 2015 5:12pm
There is NO structure to your system, basically pick a direction and take a guess! The last candle color on its own cannot be a predictor of the next candle color.
The current candle color has nothing to do with the direction of the next candle, but when taken in the context of other groups of candles already printed, probabilities of future direction can be ascertained with great accuracy!!!
I actually can't believe i am responding to this. please forgive me, good luck on all your endeavors!!!
  • #392
  • Jul 24, 2015 5:17pm Jul 24, 2015 5:17pm
Awesome thread! It was my first strategy and I did some serious money with it.

I'm deeply surprised that you share your "secret"... but, if you think about it, it's just logic.
Trade, don't bet.
  • #393
  • Jul 29, 2015 3:42am Jul 29, 2015 3:42am
I have been testing this technique for a while now and these are some of my observations, hopefully it will add something to the thread:

 

  1. You need to pick up a decent trigger whether that a time trigger (in my case 7am and 8am UK time), or a volatility trigger such as HH, HL etc. or a price level trigger, such as .00, open, close etc.
  2. It works when the trigger works, if the trigger didn't work, you will end up in deep DD.
  3. You need to be dynamic and directionless, any bias you have will work against you.
  4. While it is clear where to enter and where your stop should be, the real factor that will determine your success is where to take profit. This is tricky and don't underestimate this point.
  5. You should have some rules when not to trade this method.

​


For example today 29/07/2015: While you'd expect some volatility at FO and LO, you ended up with two doji bars at 7am and 8am. If you tried to trade this method based on the hourly open price for FF and LO, your account would have been in huge DD, and you would needed the market to move at least 70 pips just to get back to BE.


Regards.

Double the account
  • #394
  • Jul 29, 2015 8:07am Jul 29, 2015 8:07am
Quoting zghnno
...For example today 29/07/2015: While you'd expect some volatility at FO and LO, you ended up with two doji bars at 7am and 8am. If you tried to trade this method based on the hourly open price for FF and LO, your account would have been in huge DD, and you would needed the market to move at least 70 pips just to get back to BE. Regards.
FF and LO are unfamiliar terms to me. Please be so kind as to define these terms. Also, what chart are you referring to that produced two doji bars?
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #395
  • Jul 29, 2015 10:43am Jul 29, 2015 10:43am
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} FF and LO are unfamiliar terms to me. Please be so kind as to define these terms. Also, what chart are you referring to that produced two doji bars?
FF or FFO...Frankfurt Open
LO...London Open
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #396
  • Jul 29, 2015 10:50am Jul 29, 2015 10:50am
Quoting profitfarmer
{quote} FF or FFO...Frankfurt Open LO...London Open
Thank you, profitfarmer. Which pair?
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #397
  • Jul 29, 2015 3:12pm Jul 29, 2015 3:12pm
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} Thank you, profitfarmer. Which pair?
GU
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: $GBPUSD (1 Min) 29_07_2015.jpg Size: 70 KB
Double the account
  • #398
  • Jul 29, 2015 7:08pm Jul 29, 2015 7:08pm
Quoting zghnno
{quote} GU {image}
Thanks for clearing that up.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #399
  • Jul 30, 2015 2:42pm Jul 30, 2015 2:42pm
Quoting SunSaltwater
Not to hi-jack the thread, honestly the post within this thread on 'efficient' markets just really got me excited to post something on here again in the hopes it may help someone. If it detracts from the thread please delete. This thread actually makes a lot of sense to me as I use a simple line, could say single candle stick to enter my trades but I do need to see the price history to see the opportunity / in-efficient / TZ areas to trade towards. I firmly believe reading this thread and looking at TZ zones for opportunity will help anyone struggling...
Yes were of topic but you make a good point.i dont trade this on fx but i do on ft100.ive been working on something similar for a couple of years now,and have logged every price return or not .

The way i trade the in efficient ,efficient market state is by calculating the % of price returns,trend range ,distance for collective groups.example 10 to 30 pips is efficient at 68 %,when price is driven (trend), this % will decrease the other groups will also become inefficient ,the markets correction through range will bring that % value back to 68 %.the band widths determine the the size of the swings to correct all groups.the thing that stung most of the followers of this type of trading is that price does not need to clear the levels ,it just becomes efficient through depths of range.yes most are cleared but not all,

On a practical trading point of view it can be rewarding but one still needs to recognize the cycles and those % ,s .
  • #400
  • Jul 30, 2015 3:00pm Jul 30, 2015 3:00pm
Quoting diceman555
{quote} Yes were of topic but you make a good point.i dont trade this on fx but i do on ft100.ive been working on something similar for a couple of years now,and have logged every price return or not . The way i trade the in efficient ,efficient market state is by calculating the % of price returns,trend range ,distance for collective groups.example 10 to 30 pips is efficient at 68 %,when price is driven (trend), this % will decrease the other groups will also become inefficient ,the markets correction through range will bring that % value back...
Thank you for the reply.

Care to draft up the above thoughts on a chart? Thanks.
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