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  • #136,321
  • Jul 24, 2015 10:41am Jul 24, 2015 10:41am
Quoting ClinicalEx
1.0927 is my new, tradeable reference to watch on the pair after the latest moves.
Quoting ClinicalEx
A clean break of 0965 with London opens up 0926. A hold below that on the daily sets us up for the continuation before the FED leaving them to sort out 1.073 later next week.
Just about out of time so it's looking like a weekly close around 1.098 which leaves the ball firmly in the FED's court. Let's see where we close later.
  • #136,322
  • Jul 24, 2015 11:55am Jul 24, 2015 11:55am
Well its certainly time to give out some credits.
Been following the SnP closely the last week.

Gotta give it to you Sisse, Well done.

I think that's as much as spot on you can be as a trader/analyst.

You always provide interesting and informative post, thank you very much.
  • #136,323
  • Jul 24, 2015 11:57am Jul 24, 2015 11:57am
Quoting sisse
Last chance to complete the preemptive selloff in equities [check]before FOMC next week. If triggered it will easily carry the rest of the board. 2100.xx (S&P for reference) only level in play across the board for the NY opening session to complete the preemptive leg to 2085.xx....
...Nothing short of perfection this week (no pun intended)!!! ...uff ...one of those flawless week to remember ...

---> Europe going home with US equities in full control. As expected a very decent selloff in Equites in the US morning session (for those following and trading ... the tick to the 208x handle is more than good enough to clear most of the fresh intraday positions in my case...)....

---> Expecting bastards and program traders to step in (I hope not but they probably will, given FED next week) at today's closing range to hold and form a provisional bottom in US equities for next week FOMC...

---> On the euro as expected pretty much a dull flat day moving as collateral of US Equites. 1.096x only level to track for 4 consecutive week (no surprises there) close. However, if equities rally at the close it look set to roll on the low of the 1.09xx handle (1.091x)...Only a carnage in US equites will make euro go much higher than the 1.101x today...

Quoting eborn
{quote} There goes the OIL.
As i mentioned yesterday. I wouldn't mind a clean sweep across the board with oil getting crush too but I don't think we will have another break until next week. Tracking 48.3x for the close with equities rally at the close.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,324
  • Jul 24, 2015 12:54pm Jul 24, 2015 12:54pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} As i mentioned yesterday. I wouldn't mind a clean sweep across the board with oil getting crush too but I don't think we will have another break until next week. Tracking 48.3x for the close with equities rally at the close. sisse
Made some nice profits this week thanks to you Closed my positions at 47,99 earlier today. Will look into OIL again next week.
  • #136,325
  • Jul 24, 2015 1:01pm Jul 24, 2015 1:01pm
Quoting eborn
{quote} Made some nice profits this week thanks to you Closed my positions at 47,99 earlier today. Will look into OIL again next week.
I am glad you rode it too ...

....and that was it. 99% of the range taken from high to low this week (if we mark the low in a few minutes for the rally at the close) ... clearing all weekly targets in equities (S&P 2085x.xx reference for those tracking and for those in CDFs...)

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,326
  • Jul 24, 2015 1:01pm Jul 24, 2015 1:01pm
Quoting PIP Lover
{quote} Bravo Sisse is hands down a MAGICIAN I honestly do not know how he does it- he has been doing a play by play here not just for Euro , but for OIL and Gold and ES..it has been so precise to the point where I am totally freaked out. I mean, I have been trading for 7+ years. Took me 5 years to get profitable and I think I am pretty good at it finally in a way that I can bring in steady profits.. But then.. this guy Sisse comes along and makes me realize that he is on a whole other level than anybody here. I swear, it is scary sometimes...
Excellent post and my sentiments entirely. I follow Sisse posts daily and I have learnt so much about the market. The deep understanding of the market held by Sisse is what differentiates a good trader from a great one. I just hope he continues posting as these threads would be very much poorer without him.

Andrew
  • #136,327
  • Jul 24, 2015 1:14pm Jul 24, 2015 1:14pm
Quoting TradeFella
Well its certainly time to give out some credits. Been following the SnP closely the last week. Gotta give it to you Sisse, Well done. I think that's as much as spot on you can be as a trader/analyst. You always provide interesting and informative post, thank you very much.

I can only agree with you.

Sisse, you can award yourself the call of the week award, and i think you normally give a 2 thumbs up....

Congrats on the week and thanks sooo much for all you post in here.

F4P
  • #136,328
  • Jul 24, 2015 2:44pm Jul 24, 2015 2:44pm
Quoting fishing4pips
{quote} I can only agree with you. Sisse, you can award yourself the call of the week award, and i think you normally give a 2 thumbs up.... Congrats on the week and thanks sooo much for all you post in here. F4P
je je je ... thanks

----- -------- -------

Strong signal and direct threat to the FED from equities before next week FOMC.... WE didn't bounce for the close and we are closing with a very strong bearish signal. If we hold below 208x.xx for the W/M close with the FOMC .... ufff .... Dollar only one left from all the dominos .... but we will need the FED to push it or put as in chop for the rest of the summer...

In any case, no rally at the close in equities, therefore Euro chopping and to roll around 1.096x as expected .... Nothing to see here until next week FOMC...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,329
  • Jul 26, 2015 12:49am Jul 26, 2015 12:49am
So good to see you posting so often sisse
  • #136,330
  • Jul 26, 2015 5:07am Jul 26, 2015 5:07am
Hey Sisse (*edit, see below) what's your opinion on the leaked news about the 0,25% hike by end 2015? I guess you're not really impressed with anything coming from mainstream news sources, but still I think it's not that spectacular.

Three possible outcomes:

  1. rate hike is now clearly confirmed: USD will get an impulse wave up and will then consolidate until the hike takes place. Then USD up.
  2. rate hike was already more or less confirmed so calling a specific number won't have a huge impact and we will keep ranging until the rate hike takes place. Then USD up.
  3. rate hike number is quite low according to expectations and a disappointment drop of USD will follow and keep ranging until the hike takes place. Then USD up.

Which one do you have in mind (short term)? Or don't you think this leaked news was important at all in short term? Long term a hike should mean USD strength.


*PS sorry, this question is not only directed to Sisse of course. If you feel you have a strong opinion about this, then please also let us know. I directed the question to Sisse because this looks like the Sisse's Q&A thread more than anything else!

  • #136,331
  • Jul 26, 2015 7:20am Jul 26, 2015 7:20am
Quoting ExForX
Hey Sisse (*edit, see below) what's your opinion on the leaked news about the 0,25% hike by end 2015? I guess you're not really impressed with anything coming from mainstream news sources, but still I think it's not that spectacular. Three possible outcomes: rate hike is now clearly confirmed: USD will get an impulse wave up and will then consolidate until the hike takes place. Then USD up. rate hike was already more or less confirmed so calling a specific number won't have a huge impact and we will keep ranging until the rate hike takes place....
It looks to me like the Fed leak chart shows a rate hike in September (3rd quarter) not just by the end of the year. I got this chart from the FRB/US model package (ZIP) data folder at http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20150724a.htm The blue circle is mine, it clearly shows the "RFFE" line (federal funds rate) going up before the 3rd quarter hash mark. Also, the RFFE line continues to go up to .75 in early 2016, which looks like an additional .50 in hikes before the end of q1 2016, so given the 'rates will rise slowly' mantra, I think they are planning another .25 in December & then a third .25 rise in 1st quarter 2016.

Otherwise, I have the same questions as EXforX.
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  • #136,332
  • Jul 27, 2015 2:39am Jul 27, 2015 2:39am
Quoting ExForX
... what's your opinion on the leaked news about the 0,25% hike by end 2015? I guess you're not really impressed with anything coming from mainstream news sources, but still I think it's not that spectacular. ...
Noise.

The only question is how many hikes this year. If the FED kicks the can to late Q4 2015 and only 1, it means more wide chop for a few months in the euro and then very sharp moves because the gradual hikes will be in consecutive FED meetings waves so hikes may be sharper...

An expected hike in September with another late 2015 / early 2106 and we will have a more measurable move down (wave /retrace / wave ,etc) ...

I agree pretty much with the seemoore outlook below ...


Quoting seemoore
{quote} It looks to me like the Fed leak chart shows a rate hike in September (3rd quarter) not just by the end of the year. ....Also, the RFFE line continues to go up to .75 in early 2016, which looks like an additional .50 in hikes before the end of q1 2016, so given the 'rates will rise slowly' mantra, I think they are planning another .25 in December & then a third .25 rise in 1st quarter 2016. Otherwise, I have the same questions as EXforX. {image}
Agree. Pretty much my same scenario as for today pre FOMC this week...

------------- ----------------- --------------- -----------

Quoting sisse
.. 1.093x holding [check] the opening will unlock a quick in and out to the 1.10xx handle (1.101x [check] with max extension 1.108x [check]) but that extension scenario will guarantee us "Nothingness" (extended compress & untrable chop zone) until next week FOMC/M/W triple combo .... My bets are on the other side on completing the short term swing and more importantly starting the mid term swing to parity so nothing to do at these levels but sit tight and wait to see how it pans out ....
Very decent opening range and probably last move of the session. 1.108x tested right on time for the european opening. German news coming to close the session (summer so ...) Inline or a miss will put a hard stop of the intraday leg move, a positive number and we will unlock an overshoot intraday to test 1.112x (which will be more than enough for some who call the long leg from 1.080x)...

Nothing to do here until the FOMC, with same levels, same trades same all...

GL all this KEY week...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,333
  • Edited 5:33am Jul 27, 2015 5:09am | Edited 5:33am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} Can't speak for Hathor. My outlook is that we are in a wide range, which is caused by that monthly engulfing bar and the attempts to break it/defend it, and that is where we are going to be until there's a monthly close above or below that candle. In a range you can trade both sides (long when it gets to nice looking S nearer the bottom and short when it gets to nice looking R near the top, or when you see a reliable pattern, and don't expect too much until it gets broken.) If we weren't in a range I wouldn't even be thinking about doing...
Quoting hathor
{quote} Even if it goes under parity, it is over/at 50% of the down move (I mean it won't fall under 0.6 in one go) so I'm bullish no matter of any fundamentals and geopolitical "facts ".
I guess you guys are smarter than me. 150 pips up (in your direction) after our last discussion.
Every time I go with fundamentals they don't work, and every time I go with technicals they don't work. And it's hard to wait for both fundamentals and technicals to line up together. Either that or I still don't understand the game. And seeing Mr. Sisse calling for exact numbers to be fulfilled later, drives me mad, not of jealousy of course but it's very frustrating, especially when it's clear he's not an insider, but pure analysis.
Thanks anyway for your reply and well done if you took some profit from it.
Andrew
  • #136,334
  • Jul 27, 2015 6:21am Jul 27, 2015 6:21am
Quoting ws121
{quote} {quote} I guess you guys are smarter than me. 150 pips up (in your direction) after our last discussion. Every time I go with fundamentals they don't work, and every time I go with technicals they don't work. And it's hard to wait for both fundamentals and technicals to line up together. Either that or I still don't understand the game. And seeing Mr. Sisse calling for exact numbers to be fulfilled later, drives me mad, not of jealousy of course but it's very frustrating, especially when it's clear he's not an insider, but pure analysis....
Good day
Maybe this will help a little . I've read some of your posts and it does seem that yor're getting a little frustrated .

One thing that helped me ,when i started trading live , was learning when not to trade ! I personaly have around 5 different times when i will stop trading and just watch. One of which is when i'm frustrated . Emotions will screw up trading plans quicker trhan anything else .
For a week , Try kicking back , observing , maybe working on your trading plan , enjoy being with your family and friends . (really important stuff in your life )
When you start back trading , you will have a new prespective on everything and maybe open a can of woop ass on the market .

My opinion, it helps me hope it helps you .

Dennis
Peace
  • #136,335
  • Edited 7:05am Jul 27, 2015 6:30am | Edited 7:05am
Quoting ws121
{quote} {quote} I guess you guys are smarter than me. 150 pips up (in your direction) after our last discussion. Every time I go with fundamentals they don't work, and every time I go with technicals they don't work. And it's hard to wait for both fundamentals and technicals to line up together. Either that or I still don't understand the game. And seeing Mr. Sisse calling for exact numbers to be fulfilled later, drives me mad, not of jealousy of course but it's very frustrating, especially when it's clear he's not an insider, but pure analysis....
Being smarter than you may or may not having something to do with it. Being more seasoned than you does. build11 hit it on the head, it seems perhaps you are trading too much, "and it's hard to wait for both fundamentals and technicals to line up together" <------perhaps that's exactly what you SHOULD be doing.

Please realize, sisse is a very seasoned trader- perhaps one of the top 3 most seasoned on the forums, and absolutely the the top fundamental trader (in my opinion) FF has to offer. In all likeliness you will not be able to understand his outlook on the market exactly the way he does, so do not compare yourself to him. Hes got more money than you to lose, and more experience losing it.

All the best, keep trying- persistence pays off.

Inserted Video
  • #136,336
  • Jul 27, 2015 6:46am Jul 27, 2015 6:46am
Strong follow through after the direct threat weekly close at 1.098. 1.053 and 1.017 are tradeable intraday levels on the retrace but I can't quite pin down resistance so just tracking the highs for a fresh intraday reference. Either-way, the range is capped at 1.1150 and the monthly lows and we've got a lot to digest this week to shake those levels.

Quoting sisse
{quote} Noise. The only question is how many hikes this year. If the FED kicks the can to late Q4 2015 and only 1, it means more wide chop for a few months in the euro and then very sharp moves because the gradual hikes will be in consecutive FED meetings waves so hikes may be sharper... An expected hike in September with another late 2015 / early 2106 and we will have a more measurable move down (wave /retrace / wave ,etc) ... I agree pretty much with the seemoore outlook below ... {quote} Agree. Pretty much my same scenario as for today pre FOMC...
A quick question for Sisse. Could you comment on the Euro flows at the moment? What do you think is driving the currency even against the likes of the Yen amidst equitiy selloffs, and everywhere else across the board?
  • #136,337
  • Jul 27, 2015 6:55am Jul 27, 2015 6:55am
Quoting sisse
......108x tested right on time for the european opening. German news coming to close the session (summer so ...) Inline or a miss will put a hard stop of the intraday leg move, a positive number and we will unlock an overshoot intraday to test 1.112x ...
...and that was it for the session. As expected a very basic european session with a quick overshoot to the 1.110x handle with German news and back to 1.108x...

Expecting US equities to find foot after the opening range and put all markets in comatose mode till the FOMC.

US equities in control again. There is a marginal chance for a clean sweep today 2050.xx [ES] (i seriously doubt before the FOMC) but I am not interested in toping up intraday shorts at these level so pretty much sideline intraday across the board and only sitting tight in swing positions until further data....

On the euro, same as last 4 days. It will only move as collateral (via dollar) so not much to see either. Same levels, same trades, same all

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,338
  • Jul 27, 2015 7:06am Jul 27, 2015 7:06am
Quoting ClinicalEx
S. Could you comment on the Euro flows at the moment? What do you think is driving the currency even against the likes of the Yen amidst equitiy selloffs, and everywhere else across the board?
I don't think anything really fundamental is in play in the euro until the FOMC (via dollar).

All the major moves across the board are coming first from equites. Via China which its getting scary and via US Equities preemptive FED play. And second from commodities. Oil especially via China and Oil inherit fundamentals (Iran). Gold also getting crushed also via the preemptive FED play.

Basically euro is just moving as collateral (pure measured technicals) of the rest of the board. However, it will take front line with the FED later this week as all eyes will be on king Dollar.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,339
  • Jul 27, 2015 7:40am Jul 27, 2015 7:40am
Quoting sisse
{quote} I don't think anything really fundamental is in play in the euro until the FOMC (via dollar). All the major moves across the board are coming first from equites. Via China which its getting scary and via US Equities preemptive FED play. And second from commodities. Oil especially via China and Oil inherit fundamentals (Iran). Gold also getting crushed also via the preemptive FED play. Basically euro is just moving as collateral (pure measured technicals) of the rest of the board. However, it will take front line with the FED later this week...
Thank so much for the response.

Quoting ClinicalEx
Strong follow through after the direct threat weekly close at 1.098. 1.053 1.1053 and 1.017 1.1017 are tradeable intraday levels on the retrace but I can't quite pin down resistance so just tracking the highs for a fresh intraday reference.
1.1053 is in play.
  • #136,340
  • Jul 27, 2015 7:45am Jul 27, 2015 7:45am
Quoting build11
{quote} Good day Maybe this will help a little . For a week , Try kicking back , observing , maybe working on your trading plan , enjoy being with your...
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Being smarter than you may or may not having something to do with it. Being more seasoned than you does. build11 hit it on the head,<------perhaps that's exactly what you SHOULD be doing. All the best, keep trying- persistence pays off. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZfGTL2PY3E
That's very nice of you guys. Thank you sincerely. And very inspirational clip.
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