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AUD/USD

  • #91,341
  • Jul 23, 2015 9:57pm Jul 23, 2015 9:57pm
Quoting giveachance
{quote} so are you still buying on dips???
Well we are at the 0.7300 level so now I'm starting to get worried, yes I still think the AUD is oversold and it should go higher, I will either blow up my account or make a great profit, it's personal now between me and the market makers lol.
  • #91,342
  • Jul 23, 2015 10:02pm Jul 23, 2015 10:02pm
Quoting Vorex
{quote} Well we are at the 0.7300 level so now I'm starting to get worried, yes I still think the AUD is oversold and it should go higher, I will either blow up my account or make a great profit, it's personal now between me and the market makers lol.
7200 is the last support now on which it is standing. RBA will have to intervene like RBNZ did for the aussie to rally
  • #91,343
  • Jul 23, 2015 10:12pm Jul 23, 2015 10:12pm
my short from 0.7424 is loving this action
Attached Image
As Above, So Below
  • #91,344
  • Jul 23, 2015 10:14pm Jul 23, 2015 10:14pm
Quoting kiwirood
Hi I have just recently start trading with live account on Forex, and one my my chosen pair is AUD/USD. Based on the drop 1 hour ago, the drop us AUD/USD is probably due to the CNY major news release being worse than the forecast value. My question is, regarding this pair, does news from China usually have an impact on this particular pair? I am quite new to this currency pair
China is Australia's biggest customer, their main mining commodities are iron ore for China to build infrastructure, etc. So when China is not strong, Australia will also follow. Any big news from China will normally affect AUD
  • #91,345
  • Jul 23, 2015 10:34pm Jul 23, 2015 10:34pm
Quoting tashkent
my short from 0.7424 is loving this action {image}

Hi tashkent.

I am quite new to this so would appreciate if you can explain why you decided to short from 0.7424?

I can't see any support/resistance or trendline forming at this point?

Thanks so much.
  • #91,346
  • Jul 23, 2015 10:36pm Jul 23, 2015 10:36pm
Quoting alz
{quote} Hi tashkent. I am quite new to this so would appreciate if you can explain why you decided to short from 0.7424? I can't see any support/resistance or trendline forming at this point? Thanks so much.
Please ignore my previous post. I was reading it as 0.7324.

I can see strong resistance on 0.7424.
  • #91,347
  • Jul 23, 2015 10:50pm Jul 23, 2015 10:50pm
Quoting siawkia
{quote} China is Australia's biggest customer, their main mining commodities are iron ore for China to build infrastructure, etc. So when China is not strong, Australia will also follow. Any big news from China will normally affect AUD
Ah that's why. I did not know that. Thank you for the info!
  • #91,348
  • Jul 23, 2015 10:51pm Jul 23, 2015 10:51pm
Quoting alz
{quote} Hi tashkent. I am quite new to this so would appreciate if you can explain why you decided to short from 0.7424? I can't see any support/resistance or trendline forming at this point? Thanks so much.
look at this chart where i shorted. there was a huge 4H candle. many would tell you only a fool can short after that candle
actually there is no secret, i was just following the weekly candle and had only one thing in mind: short the bitch when it raises its head and bring it down to its knees again. if it went up more, i would short over and over again until i see at least 3 green weekly candles. moreover even though is do not care about fundies always watching gold and silver if i am trading aud.
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As Above, So Below
  • #91,349
  • Jul 23, 2015 10:55pm Jul 23, 2015 10:55pm
Quoting alz
{quote} Please ignore my previous post. I was reading it as 0.7324. I can see strong resistance on 0.7424.
sorry but i am not a believer of any kind of support/resistance, trendline or supply demand, fibo etc.
i just follow the price.
As Above, So Below
  • #91,350
  • Jul 23, 2015 10:57pm Jul 23, 2015 10:57pm
Quoting tashkent
{quote} look at this chart where i shorted. there was a huge 4H candle. many would tell you only a fool can short after that candle actually there is no secret, i was just following the weekly candle and had only one thing in mind: short the bitch when it raises its head and bring it down to its knees again. if it went up more, i would short over and over again until i see at least 3 green weekly candles. moreover even though is do not care about fundies always watching gold and silver if i am trading aud. {image}
ya so do you have the balls to short it here???
  • #91,351
  • Jul 23, 2015 10:57pm Jul 23, 2015 10:57pm
Quoting tashkent
{quote} look at this chart where i shorted. there was a huge 4H candle. many would tell you only a fool can short after that candle actually there is no secret, i was just following the weekly candle and had only one thing in mind: short the bitch when it raises its head and bring it down to its knees again. if it went up more, i would short over and over again until i see at least 3 green weekly candles. moreover even though is do not care about fundies always watching gold and silver if i am trading aud. {image}
Very interesting.

What's the correlation between AUD vs Gold/Silver? I know that Australian economy takes a hit due to fall in commodity prices but why gold and silver in particular?
  • #91,352
  • Jul 23, 2015 11:03pm Jul 23, 2015 11:03pm
Quoting giveachance
{quote} ya so do you have the balls to short it here???
it has nothing to do with the size of your balls. that move probably was due to some kind of freaking media news or meaningless data release. i do not even remember.
As Above, So Below
  • #91,353
  • Jul 23, 2015 11:08pm Jul 23, 2015 11:08pm
Quoting alz
{quote} Very interesting. What's the correlation between AUD vs Gold/Silver? I know that Australian economy takes a hit due to fall in commodity prices but why gold and silver in particular?
australia is one of the biggest gold and silver production countries
As Above, So Below
  • #91,354
  • Jul 23, 2015 11:12pm Jul 23, 2015 11:12pm
Quoting tashkent
{quote} it has nothing to do with the size of your balls. that move probably was due to some kind of freaking media news or meaningless data release. i do not even remember.
so were you shorting in 2011 when all of a sudden it jumped from 0.7 to 1.15. there were no triggers for today's move. china PMI slowing was already factored in their stock market fall
  • #91,355
  • Jul 23, 2015 11:18pm Jul 23, 2015 11:18pm
Quoting giveachance
{quote} so were you shorting in 2011 when all of a sudden it jumped from 0.7 to 1.15. there were no triggers for today's move. china PMI slowing was already factored in their stock market fall
you are not getting it. i absolutely do not care about anything but what i see in my chart. the weekly is up, i buy, if down i sell. this is the most simplest thing to understand but i am so sure that many many many people will never ever comprehend it. they will keep drawing their lines and predicting the future and soon disappear from sight.
As Above, So Below
  • #91,356
  • Jul 23, 2015 11:20pm Jul 23, 2015 11:20pm
Quoting tashkent
{quote} you are not getting it. i absolutely do not care about anything but what i see in my chart. the weekly is up, i buy, if down i sell. this is the most simplest thing to understand but i am so sure that many many many people will never ever comprehend it. they will keep drawing their lines and predicting the future and soon disappear from sight.
good luck. I have bought some here and will get out if we hit 0.70.
  • #91,357
  • Jul 23, 2015 11:34pm Jul 23, 2015 11:34pm
Quoting giveachance
{quote} good luck. I have bought some here and will get out if we hit 0.70.
your money, your call. if it gets to 0.70 i will cash my profit and may consider going long.
good luck.
As Above, So Below
  • #91,358
  • Jul 23, 2015 11:36pm Jul 23, 2015 11:36pm
Quoting tashkent
{quote} you are not getting it. i absolutely do not care about anything but what i see in my chart. the weekly is up, i buy, if down i sell. this is the most simplest thing to understand but i am so sure that many many many people will never ever comprehend it. they will keep drawing their lines and predicting the future and soon disappear from sight.
First off well done, secondly I wasn't going to post a reply before but with some of the answers that have come just thought I might weigh in so to speak from a tech POV.

Probably without realising it, that trade is the perfect short. The market overall is bearish (weekly) and has been and will continue to be for the time being, however the set up recently has been indicating potential short term bullish run) The last week there has been some support created with lower low breaks not following through (look at the weekly candles, they've broke the lows and closed inside). It looks better as you go to lower TF's where can see the support.

So, around that support you have an accumulation of retailers looking to build longs, buying breakouts, SL below the lows building the liquidity. On that 4 hour chart you can see the zone that has suppressed the longs dash in the 7410-7435 range, you have small higher high building on the hourly before you get the frantic run north into that 7410-7430 zone. As a young techy looking what was the weekly before this bearish break, thinking bullish, seeing the floor being created and getting that candle that breaks that high I guarantee a lot were long there with SL put somewhere below. The market takes those longs, hits that resistance zone and it just happens that China has shit news and the Aussie gets pummelled.

I was looking for longs yesterday and Wednesday and got in well but took profits around that order block. I switched off only to jump in this morning to see that move.

Now its easy to chart in hindsight but take a look at the chart zoomed out. You get an hourly trendline that holds the highs, a Fib from the hourly high at 7450 to the low at 7355 gives you the nice 61.8 retrace level and also lines up with the order block. So whilst you're not a techy and only trade what you see, there were some signs that the level was tough but the 4 hour bull candle was like dangling candy.

Well done.
  • #91,359
  • Jul 23, 2015 11:53pm Jul 23, 2015 11:53pm
Quoting Razor_trader
{quote} First off well done, secondly I wasn't going to post a reply before but with some of the answers that have come just thought I might weigh in so to speak from a tech POV. Probably without realising it, that trade is the perfect short. The market overall is bearish (weekly) and has been and will continue to be for the time being, however the set up recently has been indicating potential short term bullish run) The last week there has been some support created with lower low breaks not following through (look at the weekly candles, they've...
Hey RT,
thanks for all the explanations and honestly i was not aware of most of the factors you have mentioned
currently i am running about 20 different pairs and usually my entries are based on quick visual analysis of weekly to hourly charts so if someone asks why i took a particular position i would not even remember. what you have wrote indeed makes lots of sense.
Good luck!
As Above, So Below
  • #91,360
  • Jul 24, 2015 12:02am Jul 24, 2015 12:02am
Quoting moonhead
{quote} hey... So now that the dollar has dipped this much, this rapidly... do you think it'll continue to sink? or will it start to rise again soon?
short version is that there's plenty of room for price to go lower in the coming days and weeks. For your November outlook though I'd add my two cents worth that I expect you will get opportunities to buy USD at a better rate than currently between now and then. Will try to post some expanded thoughts later.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
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