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The Really Useless Thread

  • #136,281
  • Jul 22, 2015 2:07pm Jul 22, 2015 2:07pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} ....and the dominos keep falling. Today in the menu OIL ... in another very good day of trading, Oil getting crushed - 3% and counting for the energies close and we are closing in a "scary" daily break (area is mid term too so W will settle the deal) after strong inventory reports ... For the rest as expected US equities in full control. They pulled the hand break on the open in what it seemed the beginning of an epic day across the board before NY open, carrying dollar with it and providing limited moves down across the board. Having cleared...
so basically , we could expect a larger dip in us$ as speculators are defying FED outlook on hikes from last fomc ?
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #136,282
  • Jul 22, 2015 2:11pm Jul 22, 2015 2:11pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} ....and the dominos keep falling. Today in the menu OIL ... in another very good day of trading, Oil getting crushed - 3% and counting for the energies close and we are closing in a "scary" daily break (area is mid term too so W will settle the deal) after strong inventory reports ... For the rest as expected US equities in full control. They pulled the hand break on the open in what it seemed the beginning of an epic day across the board before NY open, carrying dollar with it and providing limited moves down across the board. Having cleared...
i dont understand this kinda confusing!!!! equities falling dollar to fall across the board

Having cleared the way for RMT in bonds, equities, gold and oil in the last few days Dollar looks "al dente" for the next and final domino to fall across the board. With today close, they are imminent major moves across the board for a preemptive strike (outsmarting hawkish confirmation from FED) before next week FOMC/W/M triplecombo that will settle the rest of the summer .
  • #136,283
  • Jul 22, 2015 2:28pm Jul 22, 2015 2:28pm
Quoting hoom
{quote} so basically , we could expect a larger dip in us$ as speculators are defying FED outlook on hikes from last fomc ?
Why dip ??? ...I meant the opposite. Maybe I didn't make myself clear enough:

I guess I can see the potential confusion in my wording ....

I made it sound a bit counterintuitive, the expression was the "next domino to fall" is the dollar. Which means in the context of RMT the next instrument that will follow a break/move because of rates will be the Dollar.

I didn't mean the actual dollar value is going to go down. Any hike in any currency is Hawkish/bullish by default ....

I hope it clarifies ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,284
  • Jul 22, 2015 2:34pm Jul 22, 2015 2:34pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Why dip ??? ...I meant the opposite. Maybe I didn't make myself clear enough: I guess I can see the potential confusion in my wording .... I made it sound a bit counterintuitive, the expression was the "next domino to fall" is the dollar. Which means in the context of RMT the next instrument that will follow a break/move because of rates will be the Dollar. I didn't mean the actual dollar value is going to go down. Any hike in any currency is Hawkish/bullish by default .... I hope it clarifies ... sisse
what was I drinking ...
following every step in your outlook so was a bit confused with the last post ... now it's very clear !

hoom
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #136,285
  • Jul 22, 2015 10:55pm Jul 22, 2015 10:55pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Why dip ??? ...I meant the opposite. Maybe I didn't make myself clear enough: I guess I can see the potential confusion in my wording .... I made it sound a bit counterintuitive, the expression was the "next domino to fall" is the dollar. Which means in the context of RMT the next instrument that will follow a break/move because of rates will be the Dollar. I didn't mean the actual dollar value is going to go down. Any hike in any currency is Hawkish/bullish by default .... I hope it clarifies ... sisse
What do you have in regards to 1140-1180? Starting to ping on the radar, think it's doable before hikes?
  • #136,286
  • Edited 1:46am Jul 23, 2015 1:21am | Edited 1:46am
There is this to consider. 1230 to 1140 was a very popular zone, on the swing up and on the swing down. Would be a nice area to sell from. 830-40 would be a nice place to look for a run up there. Just saying. Yearly mid 1260. Yearly quarter 855
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  • #136,287
  • Jul 23, 2015 2:47am Jul 23, 2015 2:47am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} What do you have in regards to 1140-1180? Starting to ping on the radar, think it's doable before hikes?
Here ...and btw I read you call 1.088x in the other thread. Very well done.

I have 1.114x/8x locked for now.

Quoting sisse
..In the euro, topping up and ready to go. For the rest of the session 1.093x holding the opening will unlock a quick in and out to the 1.10xx handle (1.101x with max extension 1.108x) but that extension scenario will guarantee us "Nothingness" (extended compress & untrable chop zone) until next week FOMC/M/W triple combo ....

My bets are on the other side on completing the short term swing and more importantly starting the mid term swing to parity so nothing to do at these levels but sit tight and wait to see...
Strong opening range in the euro with a hand of good positive numbers in Spain (Spain is turning around very quickly the last few months which a key factor for the mid and long term in the Euro).

For the intraday session same levels in play as in yesterday. Tracking 1.101x with max extension 1.108x. Euro and markets in general are setting to go to sleep until next week FOMC that will decide the faith of the board.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,288
  • Jul 23, 2015 5:28am Jul 23, 2015 5:28am
EuroIndex continue the bounce
UsdIndex continue inside the channel.
(daily charts)


Also reported large options @ 1.09 & 1.10
EUR/USD - 1.0845-50 (840mln), 1.0900 (1.9bln), 1.10 (1.9bln)
Source: Ransquawk
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  • #136,289
  • Jul 23, 2015 6:17am Jul 23, 2015 6:17am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Here ...and btw I read you call 1.088x in the other thread. Very well done. I have 1.114x/8x locked for now. {quote} Strong opening range in the euro with a hand of good positive numbers in Spain (Spain is turning around very quickly the last few months which a key factor for the mid and long term in the Euro). For the intraday session same levels in play as in yesterday. Tracking 1.101x with max extension 1.108x. Euro and markets in general are setting to go to sleep until next week FOMC that will decide the faith of the board. sisse
Thank you

(still waiting for a book list) *cough*
  • #136,290
  • Edited 7:13am Jul 23, 2015 6:56am | Edited 7:13am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Here ...and btw I read you call 1.088x in the other thread. Very well done. I have 1.114x/8x locked for now. {quote} Strong opening range in the euro with a hand of good positive numbers in Spain (Spain is turning around very quickly the last few months which a key factor for the mid and long term in the Euro). For the intraday session same levels in play as in yesterday. Tracking 1.101x with max extension 1.108x. Euro and markets in general are setting to go to sleep until next week FOMC that will decide the faith of the board....
Hi Sisse,

just a few Q: given the moves across the board you have recently so nicely forecasted and tracked. Does it have any implication for FOMC? I mean, if the markets are getting ready (waves one of the mid term swing evolved/started to evolve) it means that its doing the FEDs job, right? And if FOMC so needs to hike the rates it would be counterproductive for them to delay it further from September if the markets are getting ready, right? I mean Im not saying that the FED cannot delay it as it has many other in-puts to evaluate to determine when to hike.... but as the dominos started to fall and it happens relatively calmly - it can be seen as incentive to hike in September. With this logic I expect hawkish FOMC (= some form of confirmation of Sept. hikes). What do you think?

Plus I wanted to ask. There is this disc about falling commodities prices and their disflationary effect. Do you think its something, which could have effect on hikes timing? To me it seems, as FED noted, that falling oil prices should support consumer spending = inflationary effect, which goes agains the disflatioanry effect of lover producers input prices. However, Im not able to evaluate, which effect is stronger.

And last more practical Q. Do you see 1.108 as a top of intraday flows or as a top of the short term corrective wave from 1.081? I think its not even going to go that far. It seems to be a classical ABC correction in EW. However, if we are about to get the mid term leg down I would not be supprosed to see some excessive quick topside (maybe to this 1.108 in most extreme case) as someone might want to get all the stops, which have been so hard to managed recently.

Thank you.
  • #136,291
  • Jul 23, 2015 7:28am Jul 23, 2015 7:28am
Quoting sisse
{quote} .... Tracking 1.101x [check] with max extension 1.108x. Euro and markets in general are setting to go to sleep until next week FOMC that will decide the faith of the board.
...right on time for NY (and reports). 1.101x tested....

Reports coming, not expecting much for today. Inline with expectations or better and market will put a intraday hard halt on the micro leg up until Europe goes home ...otherwise nothing to see until NY...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,292
  • Jul 23, 2015 8:15am Jul 23, 2015 8:15am
Interesting questions.

Quoting chester123
....Does it have any implication for FOMC? I mean, if the markets are getting ready (waves one of the mid term swing evolved/started to evolve) it means that its doing the FEDs job, right? And if FOMC so needs to hike the rates it would be counterproductive for them to delay it further from September if the markets are getting ready, right?

----> Well first, The FED is not tracking these moves we have been talking about here. In order for the FED to pay attention to markets in a way that make sense for us traders we will need to have major short term moves in equites and bonds.

  1. In simple words as long as market move in a constraint and measurable way inside of the standard deviation there is no way the FED (or any CB) will even notice. They make macro policy not trading decisions so ...​

---> "​Smart money" usually try to outsmart/outguess the major "movers and shakers" in an instrument (e.g. earnings, a merger, a rate change, etc) and preempt (or a full blown move if they "know" the outcome before anybody else) the move before it actually happens. Getting it right one of these big "movers and shakers" can make a difference between a top fund manager or a superb fiscal year and a mediocre one and below par ...

  1. You probably have heard 1 million times the phrase "Buy the rumour, sell the news" .... A few do it with insider information, some with just top analysts, and some others with just the "rumour in the "street" ....it doesn't really matter, the outcome is the same.

  1. ​In the particular case of the upcoming hikes, just knowing they are unlocking the gates for a move is more than good enough for us as we can track the next FOMC (or FED comments) easily. If FED gives the go ahead in the July FOMC or NFP and/or inflation print a good number we know we are ready to go without waiting for further info ...basically the best you can do is piggyback their leverage ....

  1. What happen if the FED disappoints ...well nothing we will just delaying the move for a few weeks and the bastards will get back in the range and go on a summer break ..

---> Basically a preemptive move is just that and as long as its not out of the range, the FED will not even bother with it ...

Quote
There is this disc about falling commodities prices and their disflationary effect. Do you think its something, which could have effect on hikes timing? To me it seems, as FED noted, that falling oil prices should support consumer spending = inflationary effect, which goes agains the disflatioanry effect of lover producers input prices.

Tricky topic.

---> First and more importantly any deflationary impact in commodity prices takes time. Neither Europe or the US are showing symptoms on this in the short term (quite the opposite). However, it will definitively have an impact in the mid and long term ...and that is the reason why:

  1. I don't think it will impact the hikes timing because first hikes should be coming in the short term (next 6 months) and the impact on low commodity prices will be felt next year (Q2/Q3 2016) especially if we get oil sub $30 in the next few months ...

Quote
Do you see 1.108 as a top of intraday flows or as a top of the short term corrective wave from 1.081? I think its not even going to go that far. It seems to be a classical ABC correction in EW. However, if we are about to get the mid term leg down I would not be supprosed to see some excessive quick topside (maybe to this 1.108 in most extreme case) as someone might want to get all the stops, which have been so hard to managed recently. Thank you.

----> For the 3 points in blue:

  1. Until the FOMC next week yes
  2. Yes i see and agree with the ABC
  3. Noise and sharp ranges (making hard to manage stops) is a clear symptom of consolidation before a break out. In this case is a mid term swing so the range is wider....

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,293
  • Jul 23, 2015 8:32am Jul 23, 2015 8:32am
About as significant as an unemployment claims report can get. Lowest level since 1973 but not going to get carried away with that since absolutely key technical levels in play. As long as 1.0979 holds the weekly close it's a bull trap with the bastards exerting maximum pain on weak shorts. Btw, I was one yesterday but no real harm done after an accurate intraday entry before the move off 1.0869.

1.0927 is my new, tradeable reference to watch on the pair after the latest moves. Well played to the bulls. @ Tom D Trader . I know you got some great entries so very well played.

Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} I know its gonna get screwed, coz am leaving for a beer = SL gets hit, but this was an uf uf moment. edit: deleted acc no. {image}
  • #136,294
  • Edited 9:24am Jul 23, 2015 8:58am | Edited 9:24am
Quoting ClinicalEx
Well played to the bulls. @ Tom D Trader . I know you got some great entries so very well played. {quote}
Thx man, but not really. I had great entries. But that NFP vola kicked me of +- BE from all charts (- peanuts). Well ofc am reload and floating +- the same as before, but entries a bit worse and charts a bit screwed . So not like I had a clear path now and am just keeping it BE and waiting for next push. Suppose flow should resume after data, but UJ daily S can hold now (+- doji as I post) and also GU got below R, so charts definitely not perf now...combined with EG running for 70875 test GU chart not healthy..so am more scaled in Eur now.

edit: Took partials +- now on market hold..UJ bouncing of Daily open and EG pulling GU trades..so am BE+ peanuts now
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #136,295
  • Jul 23, 2015 9:27am Jul 23, 2015 9:27am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Thx man, but not really. I had great entries. But that NFP vola kicked me of +- BE from all charts (- peanuts). Well ofc am reload and floating +- the same as before, but entries a bit worse and charts a bit screwed . So not like I had a clear path now and am just keeping it BE and waiting for next push. Suppose flow should resume after data, but UJ daily S can hold now (+- doji as I post) and also GU got below R, so charts definitely not perf now...combined with EG running for 70875 test GU chart not healthy..so am more scaled in Eur...
Oh well, GL with those new entries in any case. Not too clued up on some of those pairs right now- you know how it is- and just tracking the dollar from yesterdays lows and looking forward to see how this week closes.
  • #136,296
  • Jul 23, 2015 9:33am Jul 23, 2015 9:33am
Quoting ClinicalEx
{quote} Oh well, GL with those new entries in any case. Not too clued up on some of those pairs right now- you know how it is- and just tracking the dollar from yesterdays lows and looking forward to see how this week closes.
Well those are tightly at BE, so simple intraday vola can kick me out now. My weekly entries I was holding since monday were lost. Especially UJ was overkill. I was 124,12... Best entries were @ 124,37.. not like I was enjoying, but lucky BE, was so strong push could have been worse. GU cut me 1,5555 and reloaded on 5535hold... already cleared though + more peanuts, as I was saying Gbp not looking good now.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #136,297
  • Jul 23, 2015 9:52am Jul 23, 2015 9:52am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Well those are tightly at BE, so simple intraday vola can kick me out now. My weekly entries I was holding since monday were lost. Especially UJ was overkill. I was 124,12... Best entries were @ 124,37.. not like I was enjoying, but lucky BE, was so strong push could have been worse. GU cut me 1,5555 and reloaded on 5535hold... already cleared though + more peanuts, as I was saying Gbp not looking good now.
Had a quick look at GU and UJ. Yeah, it looks pretty tight so good thing you're set. I'll be closely tracking the weekly candle on U/J too.

Dollar holding the lows so ping pong between them and our old friend 97.40. Tight range at 1.098 so interesting areas in play. Are we lining up for Friday to have the final say?
  • #136,298
  • Jul 23, 2015 9:58am Jul 23, 2015 9:58am
Quoting ClinicalEx
Are we lining up for Friday to have the final say?
I was hoping its not gonna happen and market decides yesterday. But somewhat USD didnt reflect Oil push down and currency markets ended up in chop... So was looking for push today (Oil 49,51 test), but GBP + NFP data send charts back to sqare 1 again. I wish I were scalper (so currently doing my wannabescalping and taking partials real close to be BE in chop mode).
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #136,299
  • Jul 23, 2015 10:12am Jul 23, 2015 10:12am
Take a look to dollar Index.
Correction from 98.28 to almost finished at 96.95
Should take a run to 98.0x

If this ocurr, EUR go south to 1.084xx
  • #136,300
  • Edited 11:46am Jul 23, 2015 11:28am | Edited 11:46am
Quoting sisse
---> All eyes on2130.xx failure to take it during the next few sessions until max the FOMC will mark the HIGH of the year in US equities (via hikes...) opening a very yummy leg ...
Quoting sisse
Next in line for the domino OIL.... Failure to take it to the upside will unlock the mid term swing to...
Having a killer week here ... US Equities and OIL smashed down again and continue their march and now they are within range to complete the first main targets. Only dollar is still barely holding the break up but holding at the end. We may need the FOMC to properly trigger the next domino ....

Quoting sisse
{quote} ...right on time for NY (and reports). 1.101x tested.... Reports coming, not expecting much for today. Inline with expectations or better and market will put a intraday hard halt on the micro [check] leg up until Europe goes home ...
In the euro....that was it for the session and prolly the day. 1.096x only level to track as the last 3 weeks... After the test 1.101x, there is nothing else to do except sit tight until the range is solved .... same levels, same trades, same all....

sisse


Quoting Enous
Take a look to dollar Index. Correction from 98.28 to almost finished at 96.95 Should take a run to 98.0x If this occur, EUR go south to 1.084xx
Yeap that is the last one still in the oven ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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