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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #28,921
  • Jul 20, 2015 4:46pm Jul 20, 2015 4:46pm
EurJpy: 4 HOUR

I am still holding my position on the EurJpy since last week Friday.

I have adjusted my stoploss and hope to see further move south. But I am beginning to feel some how about this trade because price seem to be very sluggish to get to profit target. I am used to this setup, it normally gives pips without much delay...but now seems that move is becoming very sluggish...but sometimes too, the sluggishness of price leads to a very nice breakout that gives hundreds of pips...so I hope that the breakout to the south becomes the case, and if it happens I will be very happy that I have patiently given my position room to run...

Thanks!
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  • #28,922
  • Jul 20, 2015 9:56pm Jul 20, 2015 9:56pm
AUDNZD took this trade 21st July morning. It was late entry but I thought there could be still some pips to fetch. Price was pulling away from 21ema after stalling for a bar and breached 89sma. TC on MACD. Target could be aqua trend line or 200sma (blue).

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Daily chart - thought this looks like a head & shoulder. The right shoulder did not move all the way to the upper channel before forming the right shoulder. Since I am already in the trade, took partial profit after a 33 pips move downwards. Waiting to see if price would breach the bottom channel. If it does, price could continue downwards to 89sma on daily (about 440 pips). But market could pull back to 89sma or 21ema before decided its next move. (also on the weekly time frame, the market looks like it is wanting to move downwards.)

Waiting to see what happens next. Meanwhile, do leave your comments. Thanks.
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  • #28,923
  • Jul 21, 2015 1:18am Jul 21, 2015 1:18am
AudUsd: 4 HOUR

My long term analysis tells me that there is still possibility for a further down move. It is based on that I have taken this trade.
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  • #28,924
  • Jul 21, 2015 1:40am Jul 21, 2015 1:40am
AudUsd: 4HOUR CHART

Price is there again on the bottom trend line.

I am hoping for a break to the south. Now I am considering bringing my stoploss to BE.

I am not really desiring to take profit at this level, but I have taken this trade to position myself for a break out trade to the south.

My target is +145pips.
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  • #28,925
  • Jul 21, 2015 2:25am Jul 21, 2015 2:25am
AudUsd: 4 HOUR
Update

It has been a very GREAT struggle between the 4hour 21ema and the bottom brown trend line.

I have closed my position with some little positive pips. I just positioned myself for a possible break to the south.

If the move reverses to the north, then it will be a very strong move.
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  • #28,926
  • Jul 21, 2015 3:05am Jul 21, 2015 3:05am
Quoting nic73
AUDNZD took this trade 21st July morning. It was late entry but I thought there could be still some pips to fetch. Price was pulling away from 21ema after stalling for a bar and breached 89sma. TC on MACD. Target could be aqua trend line or 200sma (blue). {image} Daily chart - thought this looks like a head & shoulder. The right shoulder did not move all the way to the upper channel before forming the right shoulder. Since I am already in the trade, took partial profit after a 33 pips move downwards. Waiting to see if price would breach the bottom...
Great!
Thanks for sharing!
I have taken time to read through your posts and explanation. I love it. You took a professional approach to trading. And that is how it should be. You are trading the facts in front of you. Good!

I do not think I have ever looked into this pair for all the years I have been trading.
Your post made me open the pair and analyzed it for the first time. I am beginning to like the pair. I have scrolled back and seen how nice the pair trends.

Below is my take on your post.
I have used two boxes to show twin trades (they have the same sort of rhythm) which gave very nice pips. You were in the 2nd twin, and for me, I will take profit at that stage (200sma). Remember that when price is between the 200 and the 89, there tends to be some uncertainty in price action or movements...but one can still go to higher time frames to anticipate for direction.

See chart below.
  • #28,927
  • Jul 21, 2015 3:06am Jul 21, 2015 3:06am
AudNzd: 4 HOUR
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  • #28,928
  • Jul 21, 2015 3:38am Jul 21, 2015 3:38am
Quoting naustingfx
EurJpy: 4 HOUR I am still holding my position on the EurJpy since last week Friday. I have adjusted my stoploss and hope to see further move south. But I am beginning to feel some how about this trade because price seem to be very sluggish to get to profit target. I am used to this setup, it normally gives pips without much delay...but now seems that move is becoming very sluggish...but sometimes too, the sluggishness of price leads to a very nice breakout that gives hundreds of pips...so I hope that the breakout to the south becomes the case, and...
Your point about sluggishness gave me an idea. Looking from the Daily chart, the sluggishness is due to the 89sma (which is pointing rather strong upwards) and as price approach 89sma, it act as a s&r. Am watching if price is going to break the 89sma. On the H4 however, as I am looking at it now, price has pulled back and move beyond 21ema and 89sma is close by. So it could go all the way to 89sma. This give me the feeling when driving a car and you want to drive down the slope at a very high speed to have the freaky feeling like your heart would drop, like riding on a roller-coaster. That pull back to 89sma is like a car is reversing to uphill getting ready to "fly downhill" as soon as it it is ready. That were it could give the price a plunge like you mentioned of a few hundred pips. That's my way of looking at it. Will see what happens. I am however, glad that price is pulling back, this give me a chance to enter trade as I am hoping it will move away from 21ema soon.

Thanks for sharing.
  • #28,929
  • Jul 21, 2015 4:10am Jul 21, 2015 4:10am
Quoting naustingfx
{quote} Great! Thanks for sharing! I have taken time to read through your posts and explanation. I love it. You took a professional approach to trading. And that is how it should be. You are trading the facts in front of you. Good! I do not think I have ever looked into this pair for all the years I have been trading. Your post made me open the pair and analyzed it for the first time. I am beginning to like the pair. I have scrolled back and seen how nice the pair trends. Below is my take on your post. I have used two boxes to show twin trades (they...
Thanks for your feedback and taking time to read it. You have assured that I am doing the right thing. And the chart you posted, I like it and I am learning another angle of analysing charts.

Hope to see you here more often.
  • #28,930
  • Jul 21, 2015 8:38am Jul 21, 2015 8:38am
Quoting nic73
{quote} Your point about sluggishness gave me an idea. Looking from the Daily chart, the sluggishness is due to the 89sma (which is pointing rather strong upwards) and as price approach 89sma, it act as a s&r. Am watching if price is going to break the 89sma. On the H4 however, as I am looking at it now, price has pulled back and move beyond 21ema and 89sma is close by. So it could go all the way to 89sma. This give me the feeling when driving a car and you want to drive down the slope at a very high speed to have the freaky feeling like your heart...
Great!

I closed my position at about +17pips. Over the years, I have tried to get a nice feel about certain price action setups, not all setups move and give pips immediately, but this one was not one of them, so when it began to delay since last week... I became doubtful of the move...

Thanks for insight.
  • #28,931
  • Edited 8:51am Jul 21, 2015 8:47am | Edited 8:51am
Quoting nic73
{quote} Thanks for your feedback and taking time to read it. You have assured that I am doing the right thing. And the chart you posted, I like it and I am learning another angle of analysing charts. Hope to see you here more often.
Nice words! Thanks!

I am here from time to time, even if I do not post.

The fact is that, I see that people are taking there time to learn this system and trade it professionally, so I do not want to distract them with some of my insights which though are based on this system, are unique. But when I am asked a question, I do try to give explanation.

I do not want to drive or force my unique ideas into another traders head. Naturally people tend to have the way they find their way to the top, and nature does not want them to be distracted.

I normally come in when I find out that someone is getting stuck !!! But if you have been observing the thread, you will see that many people tend to be silent and learning and trading too. I think NATURE is dealing with us all!!!

Happy trading bro!
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  • #28,932
  • Edited 9:01am Jul 21, 2015 8:55am | Edited 9:01am
AudUsd: 4 HOUR

I am aboard on this pair again, in this case, heading north.

I am being very conservative with my approach to this trade.

I am risking 12pips for a potential (profit) move of +120pips.
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  • #28,933
  • Jul 21, 2015 9:08am Jul 21, 2015 9:08am
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  • #28,934
  • Jul 21, 2015 9:43am Jul 21, 2015 9:43am
AudUsd: Update

That top trend line (brown) is important to me.
Profit taken. Did not allow position to get filled, but I am likely to re-enter to the north...still watching.
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  • #28,935
  • Jul 21, 2015 6:39pm Jul 21, 2015 6:39pm
Quoting naustingfx
{image}
Good morning:
I think your idea is to trade between the upper and bottom trend lines on the 4hr chart, am I right?

Entry based on fact that:
1. Price was moving up and away from the bottom trend line on 4hr.
2. On the 1hr chart, market breached the upper trend line and this confirmed the move away upwards.

This is how I see it, do fill me with your insight on this.

And using small stop loss of 12 pips.... yes and at the same time giving yourself an opportunity to take the trade. Like this. Alternatively, I could have take a small lot trade like 0.1.

Thanks for sharing.
  • #28,936
  • Jul 22, 2015 6:44am Jul 22, 2015 6:44am
NZDUSD 22 July 2015

I took this trade not sure if my analysis is alright? I took a very small lot on demo account.

Price seems to be reacting between the upper and bottom trend lines, bouncing off the channel. The upper channel is also close to the 89sma (red) and rejected these lines previously, several times. MACD is a RT. Tweezer candle bars sighted, before the downward turn.

Do tell me how I am doing in this trade. Your feedbacks are valuable to me. Thanks.
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  • #28,937
  • Jul 22, 2015 10:29am Jul 22, 2015 10:29am
Quoting nic73
NZDUSD 22 July 2015 I took this trade not sure if my analysis is alright? I took a very small lot on demo account. Price seems to be reacting between the upper and bottom trend lines, bouncing off the channel. The upper channel is also close to the 89sma (red) and rejected these lines previously, several times. MACD is a RT. Tweezer candle bars sighted, before the downward turn. Do tell me how I am doing in this trade. Your feedbacks are valuable to me. Thanks. {image}
That is excellent analysis: I was in with you and my first profit target is the 61.8% Fibonacci level.
I have been keeping an eye on the NzdUsd. And I have discovered that this pair is always in co-relation with the AudUsd pair, they always move in same direction. I even look at the behavior of the twin pairs (AudUsd and NzdUsd) before taking trade on any of them. And I try to choose the one that will give more pips...

See chart.
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  • #28,938
  • Edited 10:34am Jul 22, 2015 10:33am | Edited 10:34am
NzdUsd: 4HOUR

Update: Tp1 reached
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  • #28,939
  • Jul 22, 2015 10:35am Jul 22, 2015 10:35am
1HOUR CHART

Stoploss = 33pips
Profit = 50pips
Lot 0.1
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  • #28,940
  • Jul 22, 2015 10:46am Jul 22, 2015 10:46am
NzdUsd: 4HOUR CHART: Long term trend line.

See from how far that resistance trend line came from. You drew your own on a short term bases, but I did mine long term, and I have been keeping an eye on that long term resistance trend line for days now, to see what price will do when it gets there. And eventually expectations were met.

I do not take chances with such trades. That trade was a setter. I have been used to such scenarios for years now. I do not take such trade in demo. It is one on the trades I use to nail some nice profits...but it is good you took a small lot and on a demo account too...no need rushing things...when you get used to it, you will be happy you followed it patiently and you will be making big pips from it...remember, that apart from executing a trade, all the decision making process carried out by a trader before choosing to execute or not to execute a trade is trading in itself...

Your insight was really professionally. Professional traders are not in a haste to make money!

Thanks
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