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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #52,701
  • Edited 6:16pm Jul 21, 2015 5:53pm | Edited 6:16pm
Quoting tashkent
{quote} thank you, fti!

you are welcome.

i myself made mistake also.
i took tiny "fight to the death" position end 2014.
due to ok performance for 2014.
Never in my wildest dreams, did i envisualise that such an arragant trade could wipe out almost the whole of my gains of 2014.
That baby is still being managed, upsized and all in cash positioning.
If i had margined , would had been deep dead in the waters.
unbelievable, such a small ego position, could get into such a disaster.
But in trading it can happen. And all because i could buy cheap.
But it got cheaper and cheaper.
Mindset and reasons for the position was nonsense, so i deserved to be whacked in the head.

If i had hedged it ,"locked losses" i would have gone deeper, without interest defray cost of funds.
please be aware of these kinda bad mindsets.
Can happen to the best, so never be careless.
If careless, need find very painful strategies untangle the mind.

I guess the worst is the opportunity loss due to mind paralysis. arising from the rigid ego trip. My only excuse was , careless....EGO trip. So now i have wasted 3 quarters of 2015. all in i have waste 2014 to 2015. What an intelligent fool i am becoming. Is ok, i cannot stress much these days, so i try take it easy, and make excuses. Anyway, i was waiting for the dodo rates hikes he promised. Nothing, and not even have balls explain why. forward guidance my .......

regards
  • #52,702
  • Jul 21, 2015 6:16pm Jul 21, 2015 6:16pm
Quoting fti
{quote} you are welcome. i myself made mistake also. i took tiny "fight to the death" position end 2014. due to ok performance for 2014. Never in my wildest dreams, did i envisualise that such an arragant trade could wipe out almost the whole of my gains of 2014. That baby is still being managed, upsized and all in cash positioning. If i had margined , would had been deep dead in the waters. unbelievable, such a small ego position, could get into such a disaster. But in trading it can happen. And all because i could buy cheap. But it got cheaper...
yes, this is the unpredictable part of the trading. usually it is better to eat the loss and kill the position rather than feeding the loser fat which will eventually end up eating the whole capital.
however, i really like your strategy of rescuing the scout and have been using it with success for some time. the rescue mode is just to breakeven - make an quick attack, save the scout and get done with it; i see trade management as the most important part of the game. but the heart of the trade management is how you deal with your losses. not fond of hedging either. it is like the act of a Strauss, hiding your head does not make you invisible. hiding the loss does not make it disappear.
As Above, So Below
  • #52,703
  • Edited 6:55pm Jul 21, 2015 6:27pm | Edited 6:55pm
Quoting tashkent
{quote} yes, this is the unpredictable part of the trading. usually it is better to eat the loss and kill the position rather than feeding the loser fat which will eventually end up eating the whole capital. however, i really like your strategy of rescuing the scout and have been using it with success for some time. the rescue mode is just to breakeven - make an quick attack, save the scout and get done with it; i see trade management as the most important part of the game. but the heart of the trade management is how you deal with your losses....
yes indeed.
i now makes excuse to myself, is tenure investment due to low energys manage.
but my bicameral mind keeps reminding. i have become stupid.
live and learn.

regards

Inserted Video
  • #52,704
  • Edited 2:28am Jul 22, 2015 2:15am | Edited 2:28am
hahahahahahahahahahaha
OMG
i can hardly meditate, unless someone invents way to meditate while laughing loudly.
and i thought i was the only one at the edge. hahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Is it blue moon already?
Or is someting amist in the atmosphere.
Is snowing in sydney+++++++

hahahahahaha you watch and judge for yourself. and i thought i was the one going boink boink.
Now i have a friend?
Me have excuse.
I ate too much durians these 2 weeks and i think my diabetes is working overtime on my feets. But.....
I think i try it on my dogs , see if i get a reaction. hahahahahahahahaha


http://www.infowars.com/video-alex-j...of-the-closet/

regards
  • #52,705
  • Jul 22, 2015 8:43am Jul 22, 2015 8:43am
wah, nice to see this place life up again. but i am back to my dayjob after the short break i had. good fortune trading



Inserted Video
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #52,706
  • Jul 22, 2015 9:47am Jul 22, 2015 9:47am
Quoting Jacque
wah, nice to see this place life up again. but i am back to my dayjob after the short break i had. good fortune trading https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zx0oTV3cMrg


regards
  • #52,707
  • Jul 22, 2015 1:00pm Jul 22, 2015 1:00pm
Quoting fti
{quote} hedged? OMG, you imposed position "locks" for unwillingness take trade losses? if this is true you will need learn. Is not clever make paper losses and trap yourself in corner you cannot get out of. If you make mistake in 1 decision, what makes you think you can salvage the position that needs 2 execellent decisions escape? Only hedgers with physical positions requires hedge. How can a speculating trader needs a hedge? Correct mind please. Is important for your survival. regards Truth is your loss is already booked. Only your capital is...
Master FTI,

Apologies for late revert. I am doing several things against your principle.

1) I am having loss / win overnight positions
2) I am more likely put my scout by a breakout trade with Stop Orders
3) I am sometimes a Bear or sometimes a Bull (or I am just trying to cover my trades with opposite orders
4) Somehow I am not in able to execute Fibo lot size correctly.
5) Mostly my trades always end up from the top of the chart to bottom like below ... with even lot size

Buy (failed breakout of previous battle)
Sell (Hedged)
Buy (Covered the Hedge).
Sell (another attempt to Hedge)

6) I am now a part-time trader and hence not watching my babies as I should be doing.

Trying to do what Professions will do in shorter time, in a longer time frame. Is it never possible. In case of a position trading or swing trading then I hope all the above mentioned had to be done (even if they are against the principles). Am i right or I never understood the thing correctly.
  • #52,708
  • Jul 22, 2015 1:23pm Jul 22, 2015 1:23pm
Quoting fti
I ate too much durians these 2 weeks and i think my diabetes is working overtime on my feets.
Dear Master FTI,

In our place there is a big movement going on about alternate therapy (no medicines). The most famous disease they treat is diabetes. They put forth the following argument.

1) Pancreas inspects sugar molecules in the body and if its the "good one" marks it with insulin.
2) Body sucks those sugar molecules that are marked with insulin.
3) When we take food that consists of "bad" sugar molecules, Pancreas does not mark it with insulin.

As you can see its not the mistake of the Pancreas but only us for not taking "good" Sugar. The intelligent treatment of the west is to make Pancreas mark all sugar (including the bad) with insulin. Thus the patient absorbs bad sugar and gets caught in the vicious circle.

The funniest part is they treat sugar patient that faints with Glucose.

Master FTI, one day why not try not swallowing the diabetes pill (anyway its only to manage sugar, not treat) drink Organic, Natural Honey (or) Clean Sugar Cane Juice. Seriously.
  • #52,709
  • Jul 23, 2015 5:11am Jul 23, 2015 5:11am
Quoting pannet1
{quote} Master FTI, Apologies for late revert. I am doing several things against your principle. 1) I am having loss / win overnight positions 2) I am more likely put my scout by a breakout trade with Stop Orders 3) I am sometimes a Bear or sometimes a Bull (or I am just trying to cover my trades with opposite orders 4) Somehow I am not in able to execute Fibo lot size correctly. 5) Mostly my trades always end up from the top of the chart to bottom like below ... with even lot size Buy (failed breakout of previous battle) Sell (Hedged) Buy (Covered...
doesn't bother me how you use tools.
Is not my money.

Mostly professionals trades for a living.
Peeps who position trades is known as investors.

There is no right s and wrongs.
Do what makes your book grow.

I just show you what i would do, no one needs to follow.

regards


hahahaha talk about investors.
I already cable investor 8 months already.
I wonder if i will be coned.
from investor, if not work out i will try politics.
if still cannot maybe warlord?
  • #52,710
  • Jul 23, 2015 5:14am Jul 23, 2015 5:14am
Quoting pannet1
{quote} Dear Master FTI, In our place there is a big movement going on about alternate therapy (no medicines). The most famous disease they treat is diabetes. They put forth the following argument. 1) Pancreas inspects sugar molecules in the body and if its the "good one" marks it with insulin. 2) Body sucks those sugar molecules that are marked with insulin. 3) When we take food that consists of "bad" sugar molecules, Pancreas does not mark it with insulin. As you can see its not the mistake of the Pancreas but only us for not taking "good" Sugar....
noted.
I do not take medicine for my diabetes.
I ask my body to do necessary, to manage it.
When it cannot then i fast. I never support anything that cannot manage itself.
If it cannot support itself then it no deserves to live.


regards
  • #52,711
  • Jul 23, 2015 5:18am Jul 23, 2015 5:18am
Chart: GBP/JPY

So I'm watching the charts to find a point to re-enter after catching a nice move over the last few days.

Still trending north, slight range so I wait for it to go down to the price I want.. waiting.... waiting..

BOOOOOOOM.


Market jumps off a cliff and heads for the bottom of my screen..

Now, I look at daily candles, so these blips don't effect me to much unless it doesn't correct. What really bugs me is why oh why these big moves happen. I don't like it when I don't understand something..

is it buyers are just not buying so the sellers rush them with a combination of SL being hit that causes this kind of 100 pip drop?

is it fundamental, poor retail sales from the UK?

is it some hedge fund covering positions?

WHY?!!?

I'm only human, I need context!


Scout placed, averaged down once when hit bottom..

slightly over exposed due to average down. Must rescue scout..
  • #52,712
  • Edited 5:34am Jul 23, 2015 5:22am | Edited 5:34am
Quoting Talzus
Chart: GBP/JPY So I'm watching the charts to find a point to re-enter after catching a nice move over the last few days. Still trending north, slight range so I wait for it to go down to the price I want.. waiting.... waiting.. BOOOOOOOM. Market jumps off a cliff and heads for the bottom of my screen.. Now, I look at daily candles, so these blips don't effect me to much unless it doesn't correct. What really bugs me is why oh why these big moves happen. I don't like it when I don't understand something.. is it buyers are just not buying so the sellers...
Try trade whats happening.
not every girl behaves as you expect.

either you trade or you can become investor , start a haram.

mostly i not understand anything.
sometimes after the events then i see the reasons.
Sometimes the girls hint me what they want to do.
sometimes i get message wrong.

rescue is ok, but try not spend all your money in 1 drinkhole.
if resue is not successful, there are other ways, if you are not married.


regards
  • #52,713
  • Jul 23, 2015 5:31am Jul 23, 2015 5:31am
Quoting fti
{quote} Try trade whats happening. not every girl behaves as you expect. either you trade or you can become investor , start a haram. mostly i not understand anything. sometimes after the events then i see the reasons. Sometimes the girls hint me what they want to do. sometimes i get message wrong. regards

Hahaa. . Yes.. I feel I understand where you're coming from here.

I'll try and trade what I see and forget about the why.. The why isn't important, but annoying to my logical brain.
  • #52,714
  • Edited 5:54am Jul 23, 2015 5:39am | Edited 5:54am
Quoting Talzus
Chart: GBP/JPY So I'm watching the charts to find a point to re-enter after catching a nice move over the last few days. Still trending north, slight range so I wait for it to go down to the price I want.. waiting.... waiting.. BOOOOOOOM. ......... Must rescue scout..

To me you sound rigid in thinking ........gbp news was due.......nothing lasts forever... there are blips everywhere...... look at gbpjpy h1.. ......clues are there

I point this out with respect as it is/was my problem too.... now I try to adapt more with evolving picture.
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #52,715
  • Edited 6:08am Jul 23, 2015 5:39am | Edited 6:08am
Quoting Talzus
{quote} Hahaa. . Yes.. I feel I understand where you're coming from here. I'll try and trade what I see and forget about the why.. The why isn't important, but annoying to my logical brain.
yes, is no consolation know why, if hurts book.
mostly my best trades, i not know why?
if i knows why , then they very very.............slaughtered?
I make nice cage trap em.

now i seem in their cages, but is ok so long as i can detect still have escape route.
now i just need find way save my men. after they all save, then they will know.
now, most important for me is have stamina/resources outlast their storm.

waiting......
Inserted Video


anything draws my cap in 30% i stop struggling......and shore up my reserves.
as long as no debt, no fear.
but this mo is not pro. mo just for make survival.

i actually created already another front. same girls, but different book/mo.
operating this (althought is smaller) until that bunch investors can manage come home safely.
never knows, second family may be more loving than 1st, as long as my trader mindset not damaged.

regards
  • #52,716
  • Jul 23, 2015 9:27am Jul 23, 2015 9:27am
Quoting fti
hahahahahahahahahahaha OMG i can hardly meditate, unless someone invents way to meditate while laughing loudly. and i thought i was the only one at the edge. hahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha Is it blue moon already? Or is someting amist in the atmosphere. Is snowing in sydney+++++++ hahahahahaha you watch and judge for yourself. and i thought i was the one going boink boink. Now i have a friend? Me have excuse. I ate too much durians these 2 weeks and i think my diabetes is working overtime on my feets. But..... I think i try...
haha master FTI,

If you cannot meditate then no one in this world can meditate. You already a Karma Yogi, who just dances (100%) with no half mind. My another (yoga) master tells many things exactly how it happens. Below some instructions and warnings.

1) When you tend to concentrate a mosquito (that never exists) bites. This is just a ploy by mind to avoid concentration.
2) Never create any thought. If mind creates one never follow it. It is then the mind calms. If not repeat it.
  • #52,717
  • Jul 23, 2015 10:57am Jul 23, 2015 10:57am
Hi all,

Great to see here active again.


http://www.bbc.com/news/33605230


More on the New Development Bank... HQ in shanghai


@FTI, Friend, you eat so much durian have equalise with salt water or drink water infused with durian seed?


Rgds
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #52,718
  • Jul 23, 2015 12:11pm Jul 23, 2015 12:11pm
Quoting fti
{quote} of what? maybe he sick. We just ignore him. Maybe he may recover. you want play with him? i can let him in. but if he become violent , he may be put to sleep hor. so pityful. regards cable very scary mode. monday open gapped up 1.7165 then sold off and retested. today gap down and covered gap , suspected concerted intervention. anyway if any one wants to know, is topped. exhaustion gap and covered gap. normally indicated techically topped. but mamabear not showed up yet. only the spooked...
Master at his best.


It was post on 8/7/2014. and see what was happened with gbpusd.
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #52,719
  • Jul 23, 2015 12:20pm Jul 23, 2015 12:20pm
Quoting fti
{quote} ai ya have 2 gap la. earlier you think market traded down? was 50 pips gapped down. now creep up , cover. is market maker siam something. the intervention was to show presence only. they not apply the whip yet. normally when have interv siam, is just begining of story. anyway now have nice neckbreak technically. so suspected we should know where top untill can find the bottom. like i say , if 1.7 breaks i to bid, even to pee positions. our last stable zone was about 1.67 vicinity. anyway i no want think just flow carefully. still...
and this for eurusd to 1.2000 area when it was around 1.3600 area.
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #52,720
  • Jul 24, 2015 1:14am Jul 24, 2015 1:14am
Quoting pannet1
{quote} haha master FTI, If you cannot meditate then no one in this world can meditate. You already a Karma Yogi, who just dances (100%) with no half mind. My another (yoga) master tells many things exactly how it happens. Below some instructions and warnings. 1) When you tend to concentrate a mosquito (that never exists) bites. This is just a ploy by mind to avoid concentration. 2) Never create any thought. If mind creates one never follow it. It is then the mind calms. If not repeat it.
i just yogi bear.
Still follow butterflies and colours sometimes.
When they come i walk follow a little while.
then i bid farewell and release it like release boat to the sea.
sometimes i release walk into the void, then i meet colours says hello again.
after meet 3 times i stop, because i know it lurking somewhere nearby.

What i do instead then is listen very deep into some my music and go on magic carpet ride.
On some rides meet some resting in peace friends. have short chat.
some friends chat lots. maybe some are very busy. say hello and pop gone.

When i cannot find void still, i do lots chi gong.
Then i resting in peace for a while.
when i wake up the music still playing. Only i not hearing anymore, until i awoken.

Yes, i never think, it comes by itself from i not know where.
Thats why need release it back into the wild.
But is a very peaceful place. No lies, no egos, no fear, no self, only serene.

Thank you for tips.
Much appreciated.

regards
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