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The Really Useless Thread

  • #136,241
  • Jul 21, 2015 4:46am Jul 21, 2015 4:46am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Hi guys, I gotta ask, what is RMT? Your posts are nice, but this shortcut...
hi, it means rates mode trading - time when the FED hikes are the main market driver. I think the term is Sisse´s invention
  • #136,242
  • Jul 21, 2015 4:50am Jul 21, 2015 4:50am
Quoting chester123
{quote} hi, it means rates mode trading - time when the FED hikes are the main market driver. I think the term is Sisses invention
Ah thx. I was googling it for a few days and finally gave up.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #136,243
  • Edited 6:36am Jul 21, 2015 6:15am | Edited 6:36am
As expected a pretty dull european session after the opening range with the tiny 1.087x holding for now.... Not much to see until the driver enters in the game ....

sisse

Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Ah thx. I was googling it for a few days and finally gave up.
Here from April 29 2015....

Quoting sisse
RATES mode trading (RMT ... this is my own acronym from now on) = Sell equities, sell commodities (especially gold) buy dollar and close your eyes until is over. There will be no other fundamental force, macro numbers or else that will prime over a CB about to hike.
----------- ---------------------- ----------------- ---------------- ----------- ---------------------- ----------------- ----------------

Quoting chester123
.... do I understand it well that this is the part connected with - we could say - post-RMT? meaning, that we get a big rectrace (as u say) right after the RMT ends and then the markets shall slowly continue in the direction given by the RMT (under the post-RMT regime) until the effect completely disappears and we get to the clear "business cycle usual correlation"? Of course all this under ceteris paribus ...
Well my reply was about correlations more than anything else. He asked what will be the correlation between a selloff in equities via rates and the euro pair (short answer directly proportional ...).

For the actual Rates impact across the board. There are in V. broad terms 3 main stages:

 

  1. One which is the "meat" (strong momentum/trend) and easy part of the move via EXPECTATIONS until the first hike (and usually the next few of them)
  2. The second is when markets already digest the first round of hikes and adjust the expectations to reality. This is a slow and more choppy road with every extra hike having less and less impact (except during the actual day of the announcement in which we will have the usual very large and deep moves).
  3. Markets then will find the new "equilibrium" with rates and the business cycle flows will be more important than the FED (any CB policy)...


Obviously as you well pointed out, this is ceteris paribus everything else. From a rates point of view alone in the eur/usd , you can easily think when things will get wild right before finding a bottom: ----> When the FED is going to finish normalizing, we will start taking/trading RMT for the ECB ...but that is long way from now ...

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,244
  • Jul 21, 2015 6:29am Jul 21, 2015 6:29am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Well my reply was about correlations more than anything else. He asked what will be the correlation between a selloff in equities via rates and the euro pair (short answer directly proportional ...). For the actual Rates impact across the board. There are in V. broad terms 3 main stages: One which is the "meat" (strong momentum/trend) and easy part of the move via EXPECTATIONS until the first hike (and usually the next few of them) The second is when markets already digest the first round of hikes and adjust the expectations to reality. This is a slow and more choppy road with every extra hike having less and less impact (except during the actual day of the announcement in which we will have the usual very large and deep moves). Markets then will find the new "equilibrium" with rates and the business cycle flows will be more important than the FED (any CB policy)... Obviously as you will pointed out, this is ceteris paribus everything else. From a rates point of view alone in the eur/usd , you can easily think when things will get wild right before finding a bottom: ----> When the FED is going to finish normalizing, we will start taking/trading RTM for the ECB ...but that is long way from now ... sisse
awesome, very comprehensive and informative. thx
  • #136,245
  • Jul 21, 2015 8:18am Jul 21, 2015 8:18am
Seems Oil is bouncing and pulling USD. As Sisse pointed out, SaP/USD correlation broken. But weak push so far and 51 + 52,5 ahead - is quite R cluster there and also USD charts aproaching R - GU barely holding and actually TA sell - all GBP charts not looking good. UJ 124,27 S just below. But Eur seems gaining momentum on all charts, especially EG and EJ, so could pull EU up to 1,0965 no probs.

Btw, Sisse, looking at my latest GU trades and the fact am getting chopped, seems am expert on closed eyes, so could ride that hike well

Speaking of Oil - that Iran deal really could be a big big game changer.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #136,246
  • Jul 21, 2015 8:24am Jul 21, 2015 8:24am
Here we go for NY. 1.087x right on time for the opening range. Given the very light calendar this week on top of markets entering in the doldrums of the summer, paying more attention than usual to this micro level until Europe goes home ...

Nothing new in the Euro at these levels but US equities are on and fighting a key area that will trigger the next leg across the board ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,247
  • Jul 21, 2015 8:31am Jul 21, 2015 8:31am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
.... Btw, Sisse, looking at my latest GU trades and the fact am getting chopped
well mate (i don't remember if we talked about GU earlier in June with you ....) but you are looking for trouble with GU.

Common sense applies. GU is the worst pair to trade right now. You have both BOE and FED in RMT. Both are pulling to opposite directions. You will be squeezed out on every tiny noise from BOE hikes to the other side with FED hike noise... why bother complicating things more than you need....

Common sense mate.... you will get better bang for the buck and risk in the euro and in all commodity currencies (because both sides are pulling to the same side) especially AUD and CAD. If you really really fancy Sterling (I don't) go for Eur/Gbp .... Always choose the path (and instrument) of least resistance ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,248
  • Edited 9:03am Jul 21, 2015 8:52am | Edited 9:03am
Quoting sisse
{quote} well mate (i don't remember if we talked about GU earlier in June with you ....) but you are looking for trouble with GU. Common sense applies. GU is the worst pair to trade right now. You have both BOE and FED in RMT. Both are pulling to opposite directions. You will be squeezed out on every tiny noise from BOE hikes to the other side with FED hike noise... why bother complicating things more than you need.... Common sense mate.... you will get better bang for the buck and risk in the euro and in all commodity currencies (because both sides...
Yes, we ve been talking. And am stalking those "risk" currencies. But I have told you I dont know that much about Australia so afraid to invest more in there - actually all of Asia - these pairs are more of a diversify for me. Am focusing on Europe. But in order to enhance my fundamental knowledge about Australia, I have seen new Mad Max twice. Recommend

Quoting sisse
{Technically its the only one with confirmed sell signals for the mid term swing. A break 116x will open the leg to below $1000.... On UJ, a bit more complex and noisy because of the BOJ. In my opinion, the best bang for the buck in currencies for the FED hikes are in the EURO and in AUD.... {quote} ... GL sisse
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Yes I agree, Gold pretty much very strong TA sell. ... Pretty much agree on the bang for the buck on Eur, as I still think it is very much undervaluated due to this January doublecombo, namely SNB peg+ECB QE. .... On the other hand, think GU even better. Now with disgraced CHF, Sterling became the ultimate Europe safe haven. Also one could suppose as Brittains started QE second after US, they are gonna hike second. So imo pretty soon hike expectations are gonna be pricing in..then come news etc...Brittish bonds+stocks are gonna...
But yes, I have seen Carney mentioning BOE hikes are not anywhere close...ofc when US hikes and liquidity flows out of market they wont join soon. But they start talking, thats all I need. Once dust from hike settles, Brittain hikes too. Besides, all these are long term till 2016. With this current trade am aiming just for the last push on US free cash, before it stops. We still have almost whole summer for Oil and Equities go up. Now am mostly concerned by that Iran, as that could very well screw up my Oil plans.

edit: regarding that undervaluetad Eur - this ofc applies till hikes, then USD rule and rest of currencies dont matter. But after hikes I megabuy EU.
edit: I also like Brittains, cant help it. Did you know Czechs and Brittains have the biggest portion of Celtish genofonde from whole world? Is useless, I know, but may explain why people of these nations usually like each other.
T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #136,249
  • Jul 21, 2015 9:10am Jul 21, 2015 9:10am
Euroindex daily chart,
Nice bounce off the trendline
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURXDaily.jpg Size: 134 KB
  • #136,250
  • Jul 21, 2015 9:50am Jul 21, 2015 9:50am
Gbp/aud non stop! Short.
  • #136,251
  • Jul 21, 2015 2:18pm Jul 21, 2015 2:18pm
v.active session across the boards with short covering / minions giving up on longs [breaking the low convinced them to short any rally feeding upside move] ... anyway , interesting levels to play during end of month ...

hoom
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #136,252
  • Jul 21, 2015 2:23pm Jul 21, 2015 2:23pm
Quoting sisse
... how the 1.08x handle will hold even the Asian Session .... But more importantly massive EARLY ALERTstriggered in the US equities. S&P failed to hold 2130.xx in daily is a very strong BEARISH warning ....
sisse
Another superb day here.... getting pay in the next falling domino ... as expected US equities getting hit and carrying the rest of the board with it. As in gold earlier this week, most of the "meat" of the short term move already gone (2014.xx for reference for those following) and we are in launching board for the FOMC/W/M combo for the rates play ...

Next in line for the domino OIL. Tracking extremely closely 50.9x in the next few sessions (especially the W roll). Failure to take it to the upside will unlock the mid term swing to $36.5x and max extension $26.4x with strong intermediate stops at $48.3x and $41.2x....

In the euro, after 1,087x was taken (and without much effort) dollar carrying the pair in a strong intraday session to a key test 1.096x. (well done all those intraday bulls!!!). But more importantly, back to key and interesting levels. Choose your poison time again for topping up and for the micro swing with the roll...

GL all trading or planing to trade ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,253
  • Jul 21, 2015 2:24pm Jul 21, 2015 2:24pm
A short squeeze as soon as 1.091 was taken intraday. 97.40 coming back into the picture on the dollar, this time from the other side, but we'll need to track the picture closely around there meaning no fade until a cleanintraday break back of 60ish and 91 being broken back on the pair too.
  • #136,254
  • Jul 21, 2015 2:31pm Jul 21, 2015 2:31pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Another superb day here.... getting pay in the next falling domino ... as expected US equities getting hit and carrying the rest of the board with it. As in gold earlier this week, most of the "meat" of the short term move already gone (2014.xx for reference for those following) and we are in launching board for the FOMC/W/M combo for the rates play ... Next in line for the domino OIL. Tracking extremely closely 50.9x in the next few sessions (especially the W roll). Failure to take it to the upside will unlock the mid term swing to $36.5x...
Fantastic, precise call on ES. Excellent trading and a real pleasure to read your posts.

Quoting sisse
A bearish close again.... euro hanging on air. It's hard to see how the 1.08x handle will hold even the Asian Session .... But more importantly massive EARLY ALERTs triggered in the US equities. S&P failed to hold 2130.xx in daily is a very strong BEARISH warning (
  • #136,255
  • Jul 21, 2015 2:36pm Jul 21, 2015 2:36pm
Quoting ClinicalEx
{quote} Fantastic, precise call on ES. Excellent trading and a real pleasure to read your posts. {quote}
Thanks mate ...when one is on fire ...feels like having the Midas Touch in every instrument ... sadly such flawless synch with the markets doesn't last forever ...so I am enjoying while it last ...

In any case, yes all markets acting in perfect harmony so far. A pleasure to trade especially after the month and plus of circus we had with Greece...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,256
  • Jul 21, 2015 2:38pm Jul 21, 2015 2:38pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Thanks mate ...when one is on fire ...feels like having the Midas Touch in every instrument ... sadly such flawless synch with the markets doesn't last forever ...so I am enjoying while it last ... In any case, yes all markets acting in perfect harmony so far. A pleasure to trade especially after the month and plus of circus we had with Greece... sisse

Have you a bottom target for the euro?
  • #136,257
  • Jul 21, 2015 2:41pm Jul 21, 2015 2:41pm
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} Have you a bottom target for the euro?
Short / Mid or Long term?
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,258
  • Jul 21, 2015 2:42pm Jul 21, 2015 2:42pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Short / Mid or Long term?
Short long term
  • #136,259
  • Jul 21, 2015 2:46pm Jul 21, 2015 2:46pm
Quoting ClinicalEx
{quote} Fantastic, precise call on ES. Excellent trading and a real pleasure to read your posts. {quote}
Yy, also am gazing. Good job Sisse. Gold, than ES... I wish I had more monitors and hands... cant enter that many markets and missed the move. But prolly would be afraid to enter anyway.

Am also very closely tracking 51 on oil. Or 50,9, whatever . Am very concerned with that Iran deal. One wonders how much of Oil did they stored during years of sanctions. But prolly a LOT.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #136,260
  • Jul 21, 2015 2:49pm Jul 21, 2015 2:49pm
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} Short long term
1.073x and 0.91xx (this will get adjusted to a precise area if we get there).....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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