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The Really Useless Thread

  • #136,221
  • Jul 20, 2015 3:11am Jul 20, 2015 3:11am
Quoting sisse
{quote} {quote} {quote} ​ @Fool ... a quick update: not much to comment mate except what a Great start of the week ... -------------- --------------------------- --------------------------- As expected, Macro stops getting demolished in GOLD on the W opening range with a nice opening fireworks ceremony for RMT.... However, meat of the move is gone until the next FOMC. Expecting a wide chop range until then (112x / 107x) ... For the Euro and the rest of the board, gates are open to final targets for this week so there is not much to do for...
What is the long term short target for gold
Intraday only.
  • #136,222
  • Jul 20, 2015 3:16am Jul 20, 2015 3:16am
Quoting Banzaisky
I notice you missed the ifs but's and maybes from the speech and only selected the bit that supported your thesis(you really should try to be more objective). ...

Exactly so, and all the headlines are saying that Yellen will hike in Sept or December If you read the speech carefully there are so many caveats and get-out of jail free cards it is totally meaningless.
mate mate mate ... this is the second topic in a week we are getting stuck on the emotional/political or to be honest RATIONAL bias on a macro policy factor.

Look, as you know markets look/trade expectations. If you dig into macroeconomics you know that a CB (Investors and all) create/use and make EXPECTATIONS to forecast interest rates, inflation, etc so they can make policy (or investment) decisions. Expectations are not 100% guarantees they never have been, they will never be.

I am not sure if you have traded RATES before, but if you expect the FED (any CB) to just outline step by step with exact dates and numbers for a hike/cut you will as well just look for something else to trade because it WONT happen. Ever !!! otherwise all players will just adapt for the hike before even the policy is implemented (and that is NO NO NO NO NO never when managing inflation and expectations ).

Point is, when markets (not people outside of our business !!!!! ) read a FED statement, FOMC, etc they are not looking for a complete step by step guideline with perfect 100% guarantee decision but they look for clues and hints and sometimes just even keywords which, for people outside of our business, will sound completely STUPID and Irrational... (e.g "whatever it takes 800 tick rally, or "patience" removed for 1200 ticks drop, etc).

You seem to imply the FED (any CB) just need to take all the "caveats" and just give us in silver plate (with even a perfectly golden seal and 100% guarantee stamp things will stay the same...) the policy for the next 2 year without taking into considerations expectations, future numbers, inflationary impact and even stock market reactions ....

My 2 cents, for traders is not a good idea to rationalise or get too emotional/political or philosophical bias when analysing CB expectations... We'll see in a couple of weeks after the next FOMC what is the market final verdict which is the only one that counts for us traders.....


Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Yes, that was very very nice. Hats off to Sisse.
Thanks. I appreciate it.

Quoting The Fool
..... So now the Fed show gets the prime time slot and every FOMC date from here on out should be accompanied by much hoopla until they finally do the deed....
Yeap... here we go for the RMT...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,223
  • Jul 20, 2015 3:57am Jul 20, 2015 3:57am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Agree... {quote} Exactly !!!... who are you? ... I keep reading your post and you seem you are reading my brain or hacking my charts ... {quote} Well that is a tricky one. I don't think the retrace wave (wave 2 in your words or whatever ...I know exactly what you mean with or without EW) will be that noisy. We are too close to hikes meaning that the consolidation/retrace will be rather quick (we are talking mid term swings so quick = a few weeks... I guess we are clear on that part) ... {quote} Indeed same old story.... Equities are officially...
Hi sisse,

thank you for the answers about the mid term swing from last week. Just to answer: Ive been tracking your posts very closely for about 5 months now so I bet that is why I was at least close to your opinion on this mid term swing. I was a newbie about half a year ago but I gotta say that Ive leant from you much more than from all other resources together and... hope to learn much more in the future thank you

Quoting navk
{quote} What is the long term short target for gold
Quoting sisse
{quote} My final targets for the current short term swing leg (from 121x.xx) is 110x.xx with max extension to the v strong 108x.xx . Sadly we couldn't clean break on weekly today but the MAIN targets for the mid term leg (hikes play) are 99x.xx and final extension to 87x.xx (prolly next year at the end of the main gradual hike cycle). To the other side as long as we don't break down for the mid term swing 119x.xx / 121x.xx is main and strong R area.(below there are only soft levels for now to even consider them)... sisse
maybe this can help you.
  • #136,224
  • Jul 20, 2015 8:00am Jul 20, 2015 8:00am
Quoting sisse
{quote} mate mate mate ... this is the second topic in a week we are getting stuck on the emotional/political or to be honest RATIONAL bias on a macro policy factor. Look, as you know markets look/trade expectations. If you dig into macroeconomics you know that a CB (Investors and all) create/use and make EXPECTATIONS to forecast interest rates, inflation, etc so they can make policy (or investment) decisions. Expectations are not 100% guarantees they never have been, they will never be. I am not sure if you have traded RATES before, but if you...
Nuff said - I actually think we're on same page Sisse - so I'll shut up now.
Free speech is an oxymoron
  • #136,225
  • Edited 9:22am Jul 20, 2015 9:12am | Edited 9:22am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Yes, that was very very nice. Hats off to Sisse.
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} UC and AU screwed up due to Oil correction. On the other hand, Oil Daily still has momentum to the downside..but fading and 49,5-49,9 is strong. Should it go 47,7 test, I think I will chew another loss and will be pretty bashed up. I acknowledge that vacation but a) Tokyo would be closing anytime soon b) am not saying BoJ will verbally intervene again - though they can although market is closed, but more of Mr. Market testing intervention zone. You dont wanna fight BoJ. Market just likes to test... and is part of Abe+Kuroda plan to both...

Hi Tom. I saw your post on U/J on the other thread- not sure if you received my last chart... but here's an update.

I see you're going short term U/J bearish now or at least bullish on the Yen (that may be a good plan against other currencies.) so just to add my "contrarian" view and follow up now that the volatile Asian equity correction is in the rear-view.

Nothing new for me at these levels though so either break or find a play on the pullback. Also watching out for headwinds from potential BOJ intervention as you alluded to and tracking the correlated indices closely.

You think there's more downside coming from Asian stocks huh? Will be interesting to track the impact of upcoming rate hikes on the pair vis-à-vis stocks but I suspect the volatile shock and awe part is done and dusted.

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  • #136,226
  • Jul 20, 2015 9:41am Jul 20, 2015 9:41am
Quoting ClinicalEx
{quote} {quote} Hi Tom. I saw your post on U/J on the other thread- not sure if you received my last chart... but here's an update. I see you're going short term U/J bearish now or at least bullish on the Yen (that may be a good plan against other currencies.) so just to add my "contrarian" view and follow up now that the volatile Asian equity correction is in the rear-view. Nothing new for me at these levels though so either break or find a play on the pullback. Also watching out for headwinds from potential BOJ intervention as you alluded to and...
Nope mate, I did not. That site you uploaded your chart to refused to load it :/.

Regarding BoJ, imo is not only possible intervention, but likely. Kuroda san has stated many times BoJ wishes UJ to stay below 120s. But actually thats all they can do now..verbally intervene. But every time Kuroda san has spoken, UJ tanked. Quite hard to manage given the massive monetary base enhancement. Yes, I think there is more weakness for UJ coming from Asia sell, both Nikkei and JGBs. Speaking of which, current Nikkei+UJ push was imo thx to those Japanese pension funds repositioning from JGBs into Stocks = poor Japan families once bubble bursts. Pension funds aint limitless. Also push north was caused by Oil correction (now this is the place where my tradeplan can screw up, if Oil is not correcting but confirming downtrend). On the other hand, as mentioned several times, two major Asian CBs, namely BoJ and PBOC are doing all in their efforts to prevent crash. And not like I was eager to fight these monster CBs. So in the end it can well end up as Asia chop till hikes - and then they are screwed no matter what.

Am not very sure of hike impact to UJ, but supposing this simplified scenario. USD bonds megasell, Stocks megasell. Rest of the world is gonna get sold too ofc, but imo the best standing will be Europe, with its fresh QE programme . So is gonna be USD bull for sure and I am gonna be on very low leverage when summer end approaches. Dont wanna get caught with my pants down. Regarding Asia, this hike selloff can actually trigger Asia panic = volatility spike USD bull and then Asia megasell and UJ down as right now they are barely holding their ground. Dunno, I may go short bonds, that seems the safest, but generally I view hike as more of an opportunity to load once dust settles, rather than trying to ride megawave. Am actually not that greedy as I was saying.
T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #136,227
  • Jul 20, 2015 9:46am Jul 20, 2015 9:46am
EURX Daily

Currently Testing the trendline / demand area.
Daily currently above the "line in the sand", Let's see how it close.

I would personally be more interested to see a break south in August/ Sept.
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  • #136,228
  • Jul 20, 2015 9:59am Jul 20, 2015 9:59am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Nope mate, I did not. That site you uploaded your chart to refused to load it :/. Regarding BoJ, imo is not only possible intervention, but likely. Kuroda san has stated many times BoJ wishes UJ to stay below 120s. But actually thats all they can do now..verbally intervene. But every time Kuroda san has spoken, UJ tanked. Quite hard to manage given the massive monetary base enhancement. Yes, I think there is more weakness for UJ coming from Asia sell, both Nikkei and JGBs. Speaking of which, current Nikkei+UJ push was imo thx to those Japanese...
Agree, definitely better bang for the buck on a currency like that or anything really besides the Yen where there are a few too many moving pieces

Really interesting times these, to track how these hikes will unravel the markets. That impact will be felt everywhere and affect almost every single investor across the world. Short bonds does sound like a sensible plan... Let's track closely what the FED have in store for us.

I'll think I'll let you worry about Kuroda - hope you fill me in.
  • #136,229
  • Jul 20, 2015 10:09am Jul 20, 2015 10:09am
Quoting ClinicalEx
{quote} Agree, definitely better bang for the buck on a currency like that or anything really besides the Yen where there are a few too many moving pieces Really interesting times these, to track how these hikes will unravel the markets. That impact will be felt everywhere and affect almost every single investor across the world. Short bonds does sound like a sensible plan... Let's track closely what the FED have in store for us. I'll think I'll let you worry about Kuroda - hope you fill me in.
Hahaha. Kuroda san is a Kamikaze Ninja. You always see him after he strikes.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #136,230
  • Jul 20, 2015 2:03pm Jul 20, 2015 2:03pm
Except in the euro super important and very interesting sessions today across the board.

---> Friday was GOLD today US Equities pushing in a rush as fast and as high as possible....and if this move is what I think it is !!!!...The High of this year is around the corner in US EQUITIES.... the dominos keep pushing each other for the RMT...

The move has all the conditions and signals of a "clearing all" in a rally before a decent retrace. Today and the next few sessions, the only key market(s) to track is US equities. ES (or the corresponding CDF in spot) for those trading and for those just tracking S&P index for reference:

---> All eyes on 2130.xx failure to take it during the next few sessions until max the FOMC will mark the HIGH of the year in US equities (via hikes...) opening a very yummy leg until next year to 1942.xx with max extension 1890.xx and hard intermediate stops at 2045.xx and 1980.xx.

Very important to track how equities react in the next few session as they not only carry dollar (breaking correlation) but it will have a very long long tale across board (especially oil as it will be the next in line in the domino).

For the rest, euro in a "nothing to see day" as expected stuck in tiny chop zone until Europe went home. However, bulls are starting TO COUGH A LOT for NY closing range as dollar is getting bought from every front (clearing equites will bring a large momentum leg!!!).

Early alerts in the euro triggered for the ROLL. Losing 1.082x will open the low of the 1.07xx handle overnight propelled with oxygen from minions and long retail getting spank again ....

Super active markets and plenty of plays across the board ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,231
  • Jul 20, 2015 2:17pm Jul 20, 2015 2:17pm
Quoting sisse
today US Equities pushing in a rush as fast and as high as possible....and if this move is what I think it is !!!!...The High of this year is around the corner in US EQUITIES.... the dominos keep pushing each other for the RMT... The move has all the conditions and signals of a "clearing all" in a rally before a decent retrace. Today and the next few sessions, the only key market(s) to track is US equities. ES (or the corresponding CDF in spot) for those trading and for those just tracking S&P index for reference: ---> All eyes on 2130.xx failure...
my thoughts ditto, window for new highs is wide open but will be closing (soon? this year certainly) so load up and run em up before they finally start to shut down the disco. I am looking for the SnP to break into new ath territory this week, 2150+ perhaps, and will be selling late Aug SPY calls out around $220 +/- when I see that....next week a lull b4 the FOMC. JY I bet will show a little hawk tail feather oh man I am already sportin wood!
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136,232
  • Jul 20, 2015 2:54pm Jul 20, 2015 2:54pm
Quoting sisse
Except in the euro super important and very interesting sessions today across the board. ---> Friday was GOLD today US Equities pushing in a rush as fast and as high as possible....and if this move is what I think it is !!!!...The High of this year is around the corner in US EQUITIES.... the dominos keep pushing each other for the RMT... The move has all the conditions and signals of a "clearing all" in a rally before a decent retrace. Today and the next few sessions, the only key market(s) to track is US equities. ES (or the corresponding CDF in...

Thanks sisse, today i'm alredy taking shorts on SP500.
I agree with you to watch what happens in the range of 2130 - 38.

keep looking and loading in the highs.
  • #136,233
  • Jul 20, 2015 4:08pm Jul 20, 2015 4:08pm
A bearish close again.... euro hanging on air. It's hard to see how the 1.08x handle will hold even the Asian Session .... But more importantly massive EARLY ALERTs triggered in the US equities. S&P failed to hold 2130.xx in daily is a very strong BEARISH warning (level is a MAJOR and around all time highs so we will have the area until the W / M roll at least for a play with next week FOMC)

On the euro, nothing to see at these levels, same levels, same trades, same all until the European opening ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,234
  • Jul 20, 2015 4:19pm Jul 20, 2015 4:19pm
Quoting sisse
A bearish close again.... euro hanging on air. It's hard to see how the 1.08x handle will hold even the Asian Session .... But more importantly massive EARLY ALERTs triggered in the US equities. S&P failed to hold 2130.xx in daily is a very strong BEARISH warning (level is a MAJOR and around all time highs so we will have the area until the W / M roll at least for a play with next week FOMC) On the euro, nothing to see at these levels, same levels, same trades, same all until the European opening ... sisse
Sisse, how do you think a selloff in US equities will influence EUR/USD?
Thanks
  • #136,235
  • Jul 20, 2015 4:21pm Jul 20, 2015 4:21pm
Quoting jaxx80
{quote} Sisse, how do you think a selloff in US equities will influence EUR/USD? Thanks
A selloff on rates? ...easy sell equities, hold dollars until the first impact of the the hikes is settle (depending on first hike +/- Q3/4 2015 to Q1/Q2 2016).

Once we find the retrace bottom after hikes (+/- q2/q3 2016), ride the pig slowly for few Quarters ...then is back to business cycle usual correlation (but this is prolly Q4 2016 or Q1 2017 so that is far far away)...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,236
  • Jul 21, 2015 2:23am Jul 21, 2015 2:23am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} Yup. Prolly gonna bounce up abit first though - there was a 4 hr target at 082x
Done. Daily and 4 hr trix are showing divergence, and we are approaching major t/l and horizontal support around
680. My plan is throw scalps in both directions at the obvious s/r and see what sticks to the wall. (Black lines are monthly mids)
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  • #136,237
  • Jul 21, 2015 3:08am Jul 21, 2015 3:08am
US is in full control for the next few days for the key legs so not expecting much for the european sessions outside of the opening range. In the Euro, same choppy range since the opening this week. 1.087x holding the session will be enough to guarantee nothingess until NY opens ....

As long as 1.082s holds there is nothing to see here. Same levels, same trades, same all...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,238
  • Jul 21, 2015 3:32am Jul 21, 2015 3:32am
Quoting sisse
1.087x holding the session will be enough to guarantee nothingess until NY opens .... As long as 1.082s holds there is nothing to see here. Same levels, same trades, same all... sisse
Yes - same key area I have... If it will break down and then turns somewhere lower - it'll have to come back and establish above 082's again to prove it..

But interesting thing is, that this Dollar weakness wave didnt pan out as I expected turning to be not a correction, but a continuation rather. As long as E/U stays above - it may never return.. Gold plays equally important levels (1108-1115) for a historical low to be printed here.
69
  • #136,239
  • Edited 4:41am Jul 21, 2015 4:27am | Edited 4:41am
Quoting sisse
{quote} A selloff on rates? ...easy sell equities, hold dollars until the first impact of the the hikes is settle (depending on first hike +/- Q3/4 2015 to Q1/Q2 2016). Once we find the retrace bottom after hikes (+/- q2/q3 2016), ride the pig slowly for few Quarters ...then is back to business cycle usual correlation (but this is prolly Q4 2016 or Q1 2017 so that is far far away)... sisse

Hi sisse, just to clarify this post and more generally the whole RMT and post-RMT.

As I understood it: the RMT trading will last till all the hikes are priced in. All that depending on the pace of hikes and on the final federal funds rate target. That should be clear at some point during the gradual hikes cycle so I would expect that from, lets say, the beginning of the last third of the cycle the rates hike effect on market should diminish = i.e. the hikes should not move the markets/be the primary driver any more = exit from the RMT.

But I was wondering about your description, which seems to be more complex:

you say "hold dollars until the first impact of the the hikes is settle (depending on first hike +/- Q3/4 2015 to Q1/Q2 2016)" - so after the first impact of the hikes the RMT ends? or would it last longer? - maybe till the last third of the cycle as I suggested above?

and then "Once we find the retrace bottom after hikes (+/- q2/q3 2016), ride the pig slowly for few Quarters" - do I understand it well that this is the part connected with - we could say - post-RMT? meaning, that we get a big rectrace (as u say) right after the RMT ends and then the markets shall slowly continue in the direction given by the RMT (under the post-RMT regime) until the effect completely disappears and we get to the clear "business cycle usual correlation"?

Of course all this under ceteris paribus i.e. all goes well - no crash after the first hikes or any other time

Hope its understandable

Thank you!!!
  • #136,240
  • Jul 21, 2015 4:41am Jul 21, 2015 4:41am
Hi guys, I gotta ask, what is RMT? Your posts are nice, but this shortcut...
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
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