james16 Chart Thread

AUD/USD Monthly. Still some room to fall Al? Price currently in a sideways market on the daily. IB on D1. Price could break north or south. My bias would be short, but I prefer to trade short from a swing high unless momentum and PA is strong, so I may wait for a retrace to above resistance zone around .075000 area or higher.

HAPPY 10th BIRTHDAY!!!!

Personally I wouldn't want to be selling AU, the weekly chart shows an S&R flip area approaching, also the daily shows the downtrend stalling (can also be seen as divergence on Daily and Weekly). As usual it's the price action we have to wait for.

AUDUSD Weekly

Watch the commodity front. But as you indicate, I feel 7500 would be a good place to go short again.

Oil is poised to fall (Iran is poised to flood the market with their 30+ mill Barrel which they are currently silently storing in tankers not declared but ready to ship).
Gold will, in the near/medium term!!!, get a further beating in the China/Shanghai London/COMEX standoff (not discussing what will be after that)
Iron/Uranium will be neither in the bull mode looking after the Chinese GDP

All AUD negative. And things in particular Oil & Gold could unravel rather quickly.
Scotiabank's Guy Haselmann, who had a quite good sense for the market in the past, is seeing ADU@6500/6300 for the next 3-5 month.

ok how much does a pizza delivery driver make?

First lets get a few things out of the way. March 2007 I opened my first live trading account with 5k. It took 6 trading days for the account to be blown. From then till oct. 2007 I opened 2 more 5k trading accounts and they were both blown accounts. After I blew my third account up my wife looked at me and said "you are not good at this" and SHE decided my trading career was over.

But I loved trading and had to figure out a way to trade. I searched high and low for the next year trying new systems and indicators out. Bouncing from system to system thinking everyone was flawed and everyone was out to rip me off.

A friend of mine was starting to have some success in trading and I wanted his system/indicator. I begged him for it! That's when I found james16 thread. I actually bootlegged off his subscription for 6 months (sorry james). A light bulb went off for me and I decided to become committed to trading instead of just being involved. If you don't know the difference of being committed to something and being involved here is a quote i got from zig zigler. "A chicken and pig are walking down the road, the chicken looks at the pig and says Hey ham and eggs sound great right now! The pig looks at the chicken and says Yeah but you're just involved in that and im committed to that"

Ok so how the hell do I become a successful trader? My wife said no more money. In fact she was quit upset at the ideal. So I committed myself to it. Ive built refineries since I was 18 and made a very good living doing that but I had to figure out how to get the extra money without upsetting her or taking away from my family! Trading was my dream and I wasn't giving up. So here comes the breakfast burrito ideal. Yes sounds dumb but selling burritos made me into a trader. First I had to commit a certain amount of hours a day to cooking/selling them without taking away from father/husband duties. So many many many all nighters and most times it was a couple hours a night for sleep. But between cooking and learning to trade I had to make the time somewhere. Ok So at the time it cost me .72 cents to make a burrito and I sold them for $3 a piece and averaged 25-30 a day. I made an average of $60 a day x 6 days a week which is 360 a week. about $1500 a month and $18000 a year. I did that for 2 years 10 months. So roughly $37000. Still most people laughed at the ideal.

During this time in my life I also learned to trade. I learned what a trend is. I learned what price action REALLY meant. Ok here is a test. For those of you that live in a city with public transportation ie. bus subway. Go to a scheduled stop and get on the bus/train.... ok great worked perfectly right? ok now go to the middle of that stop and tell me if that bus/train stops for YOU. It didn't stop did it? So why trade against a trend? LEARN what a trend is!

Ok lastly IF I could go back to the beginning of my trading experience I would learn the psychological stuff first. WHY? Would you trade a system that was only 30-40 percent accurate? The Turtle traders did it and made millions. Their trade rules were written in concrete and didn't change along the way. Risk management and proper money management is WAY MORE IMPORTANT then any strategy you use. My trade plan was written to bring out MY best qualities. It was written to fit my personalty. I have rules written in my plan that CAN NOT be over turned and that goes for money management too. I wrote a trading plan to follow not to overwrite. I don't need 500 pips a week. My goal is 50 pips a week. Why? My money management and risk says that's all i need. I've made a ton on money getting just 20 pips at a time. My monthly goal is 20%. Is that goal hit every month? No Its not. Have I ever had a loosing month? No I have not. I hate loosing. I pick my trades wisely. I never go against a trend and love seeing a good ole trend forming. I don't pick tops and bottoms. Doesn't fit my personalty and isn't written into my plans. James recently posted a screen shot of a 30 in a row 40 and 45 in a row winning streak. Is that possible? Yup sure is!! My last lose was 4-15-2015 for 19 pips. I'm still pissed about that!!

In closing , every trader has their own trading style that fits their personality. Challenge yourself in finding YOUR style. Mine is different then everyone else. And every personalty is different. FIND YOURSELF AND YOUR TRADING PERSONALTY WILL EMERGE. That "Holy crap" moment will come IF you commit yourself.
Trading is easy ONCE YOU do the work.

Guitar broke the Aud/Usd hasn't broke any trend following rules yet, Does it have some resistance coming? yes it does but until it breaks a rule its still a down trend

Thanks for the explanation JSC

Thanks Gerard, Blade and GB.

@GB. You’re a bit of a fitness freak whereas Blade and I are both drunkards. I didn’t think the extra calories would have done you any good. And did you just say ‘lekker’? Lmao haha that made my day. Well done on the rugby, btw. Even though SA fielded a second string team and were clearly robbed by the 3rd umpire, you Wallabies deserved the win.

@JS, I see your point sir. Looking at the weekly chart I see just how stupid my trade really was. Thanks for taking the time to explain. Appreciated!

He everybody,

Hope you all had a good weekend!

About that GBP/USD setup; I took the trade (long on the D1 BUOB):



I'm looking for 1.5550 to hold.
If it breaks 1.5675, I'm moving the SL to BE.

thanks a lot for the explanation, Js, it makes sense. Appreciated

AUDCAD DBHLC + trendline rejection and macd divergence

just doing my weekly prep, not a ton of stuff on my radar but I like the confluenced area coming into play on nzdchf

strong divergence, had a last little push to the downside if we can get above and maintain that 6300 level into the TL we have a nice area to watch for PA

Hope you all had a great weekend and nice to see others helping out as always it's much appreciated

Nice chart Mike.
I see most "news" as just noise but the RBNZ rate decision wednesday will keep me out of NZD until after the decision.

That will probably be the catalyst

Two unfilled gaps (cue: Joey chuckling) in NZD/USD:




Not entirely related, but here's my draft of NZD/USD Monthly; a nice area from .65 down.

Ive been lurking since 2009. Not one who is active.
Are you watching for a PA to sell at the confluence eg at the trend line? You mention strong divergence. How do you see that?

If there is a strong divergence, does it mean you are looking for PA to long at the retrace of the Trendline?

Very good post jscathey and please don't be a stranger.

fantastic way to keep working on what you love instead of giving up like most people. you found a way. This determination and perseverance is much required in trading. without which there is no chance of success. Well , this goes for pretty much any field/area/business.

Do keep sharing your thoughts/experience and setups.It might help someone.

Nice rant!

100% Agree on the whole.

- Commitment
- Do the work (Just as good old Marty Schwarz taught us)
- Don't copy others - find your own personality... (This one took me about a 1,5 years..)
- Trend. Honestly what I have always lacked at this thread, was that there was little importance given to the bigger picture and to the trend. People say that location is important, the price action (nice shape pinbar etc.) is important, but they forget about the bigger picture.

Thanks for sharing

Hey Nicole

Good to see you posting

Divergence can be seen on your charts just by looking at the movement of price. Of course you can use an oscillator to confirm this but after awhile you'll know it's there

My ideal way is to look for a confirmation of the TL and then PA to go LONG. That's going to provide the best setup in my book. Now this TL area can STILL hold us to the downside. So it's important we don't get ahead of ourselves if the correct PA doesn't show. Yes you can also look for PA to go short there but as price is turning over here I prefer not to trade back into that environment like that

Hope that helps
Mike