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Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

  • #361
  • Jul 16, 2015 2:34pm Jul 16, 2015 2:34pm
Quoting forexdave1
{quote} Tooslow, is there anything you would be willing to share regarding the open/closed levels as displayed on your indicator?Thx
The opens are the hourly opens over the last 24 hours.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #362
  • Jul 16, 2015 2:44pm Jul 16, 2015 2:44pm
Quoting TooSlow
Naturally, it would be easy to accuse me of cherry picking the USDCAD pair because of the red news today. GBP did not have any news and we can apply the same method. {image} Look at the bars above 1.5650. A sell below the H1 open of the bar immediately following the bar making the high would have resulted in profit. In summary, a bar makes a high and closes. Next bar fails to make a higher high and reverses. Sell when price drops below the open price of the current bar. Look at the bars below 1.5600. A buy above the H1 open of the bar immediately...
Is your concept based on 1 candle or does it rely on what has happened before the current establishing candle?
  • #363
  • Jul 16, 2015 4:23pm Jul 16, 2015 4:23pm
Quoting NaughtyPip
{quote} Is your concept based on 1 candle or does it rely on what has happened before the current establishing candle?
Yes... It is based on the current candle for trade direction.

Yes... It is based on the prior candle to decide if a trade should be taken. The higher the time frame the less this comes into play. Daily and longer does not need this.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #364
  • Jul 16, 2015 4:29pm Jul 16, 2015 4:29pm
I find the information from the closed candle informative,it allows me to measure the volatility or i should say its potential if conditions remain similar,is the range expanding or decreasing,it gives me the averaged price.it also shows me the momentum and possible potentials.That information gives me some reference points.the unfolding candle and the next ticks support the previous candle or not. I use collective tick data from a fixed point to determine increased momentum in favor of my entry.


Having said that ,if there was not a previous candle i would still be able to trade the unfolding quotes.i would be minus the ranges which are a big part of my trading but the first viewed price would be my only key.
  • #365
  • Jul 17, 2015 1:27am Jul 17, 2015 1:27am
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} Yes... It is based on the current candle for trade direction. Yes... It is based on the prior candle to decide if a trade should be taken. The higher the time frame the less this comes into play. Daily and longer does not need this.

Ok. Well this thread is about current candle only. Pretend the candle you are trading was the first candle in history. This way we are all on the same page. I would suggest reading from the beginning Some interesting stuff
  • #366
  • Jul 17, 2015 8:47am Jul 17, 2015 8:47am
Yes, thank you. I have read from the beginning.

"I can see the higher edge within a single candlestick and the future candlestick. I can see where the higher probabilities lies within a single candlestick and the future candlestick."

""95% of the time price will close above or below the open." Amateurs will never see the edge in this quote, unless a professional point it out where the edge lies within this quote."

“Absorb what is useful, Discard what is not, Add what is uniquely your own.” - Bruce Lee
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #367
  • Jul 17, 2015 9:06am Jul 17, 2015 9:06am
Quoting TooSlow
Yes, thank you. I have read from the beginning. "I can see the higher edge within a single candlestick and the future candlestick. I can see where the higher probabilities lies within a single candlestick and the future candlestick." ""95% of the time price will close above or below the open." Amateurs will never see the edge in this quote, unless a professional point it out where the edge lies within this quote." “Absorb what is useful, Discard what is not, Add what...
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #368
  • Jul 17, 2015 9:54am Jul 17, 2015 9:54am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote}
Please elaborate on what you see.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #369
  • Jul 17, 2015 10:19am Jul 17, 2015 10:19am
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} Please elaborate on what you see.
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} Candles are conceptual in nature. Candles are only a representation of what price did over a given time span. What is relevant to a trader is what happens to price after an entry - no more, no less. Staying on topic: the entry needs to occur near or at the open price, be it daily, weekly, hourly, ... to capture the edge, The market would not exist if we all agreed, all of the time. {image} The chart shows that an entry near the open would have resulted in profit twice: Once long, and once short. It is up to the trader to determine...
Quoting TooSlow
"95% of the time price will close above or below the open." Amateurs will never see the edge in this quote, unless a professional point it out where the edge lies within this quote." {image} The chart shows the distance price is from each H1 open.
In simple terms, I see a measure of directional movement. Open is zero, our reference point.
The fundamental driver of any entry is to move.

I feel it would be better to understand this with a candle that represented a higher timeframe, eg. Daily. It would mean that within 1 candle we would have 24 reference points to track directional movement.

If we assume we started the day at 8am. And the open was 100. Within HOUR1, price moved -20 then moved +50 and closed then market has moved higher than OPEN. The question then is, would a trader have placed a trade during this interval of movement? To me, you need at least 2 points to measure direction... but I think you need a third point to measure consistent movement. In my 1st hour sample, direction was Open, Down, Pause, Reverse, Up. I don't have information on speed of reversal.

However... since we have enough time to humanly evaluate things in an hour, we can agree OL (-20) and OH (+30) meaning CLOSE is at 130. In the future / next candle if price does not go below 115, I would go LONG.

This would mean that on HOUR2 Open (let's say 125), I would wait for directional movement and if it moved down (-15) making a low of 110, in theory we have enough time to place a pending Long Order for 115.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #370
  • Jul 17, 2015 12:15pm Jul 17, 2015 12:15pm
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} {quote} {quote} In simple terms, I see a measure of directional movement. Open is zero, our reference point. The fundamental driver of any entry is to move. I feel it would be better to understand this with a candle that represented a higher timeframe, eg. Daily. It would mean that within 1 candle we would have 24 reference points to track directional movement. If we assume we started the day at 8am. And the open was 100. Within HOUR1, price moved -20 then moved +50 and closed then market has moved higher than OPEN. The question then is,...
Thank you.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #371
  • Jul 18, 2015 7:47am Jul 18, 2015 7:47am
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} When price is above an open, it is up. Conversely, when price is below an open, it is down. You did not elaborate on your trades or method so there isn't much to go on. It is a good idea not to short when price is up and not to buy when price is down. Naturally, most traders look for reversals but are impatient and trigger happy thus buying when they should be selling and vice-versa.

After hours spend on this thread! You sir, is the man!
  • #372
  • Jul 18, 2015 10:29am Jul 18, 2015 10:29am
Quoting redwed
{quote} After hours spend on this thread! You sir, is the man!
Thank you. But credit should go to the thread starter, Neio. Neio's first post is credit worthy. I have said nothing that hasn't been said before.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #373
  • Jul 18, 2015 8:35pm Jul 18, 2015 8:35pm

  1. "95% of the time price will close above or below the open."
  2. We learn that from the opening price of any candle we can EXPECT MOVEMENT.
  3. What we don't know at this stage is in what direction.
  4. For me to scalp GU within a single candle there needs to be enough movement.
  5. For me there is not enough movement in anything lower than a 1hr candle.
  6. So during each hour I only need to capture some of this range.
  7. However the OPEN to CLOSE is not the full range of the candle.
  8. Often a candle has wicks on both sides that show the real range of price movement during that candle period.
  9. So we are not limited to capturing the movement between the OPEN and CLOSE of the candle.
  10. So more often than not we can expect movement which is more than the movement between OPEN and CLOSE.
  11. This enables me to capture some of the move within a candlestick.
  12. If I get it wrong I know when to get out for a relatively small loss compared to the potential gain.
  13. I am not looking for patterns.
  14. In my own experience I would look for various patterns in relation to S/R points but found that these failed just as often as they succeeded and were unreliable.
  15. I like to see the m1 price movement in relation to my chosen reference point. The reference point keeps me grounded.
  16. I do set a SL but don't like to set a TP.
  17. We know that if we can keep losses small and are wins bigger we can lose more trades then we win and still be profitable.
  18. For those wondering what this "edge" is called, I refer to it as the momentum affect. or as CP often referred to, Newtons 1st Laws of Motion.
  19. This thread here explains further: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=522214 title: About Candlesticks: Why they were created? What do they reveal?
  20. Remember guys, time only exist when we use it to measure or perceive something.
  21. Open prices do not need to be traditional, in fact they can be at anytime & it wont make a difference.
  22. It doesn't matter at all where they are on the chart one does not hold more weight than another...ever.
  23. It makes absolutely no difference if you use a Open Line, a Close Line, A High or a Low Line. as I said, a Line is a Line is a Line.
  24. There is no place to put the horizontal line that gives it more weight or better odds than another place you could put it.
  25. As for you question about Open prices etc. Find me an open price that isn't a close price as well...
  26. Open and close prices can be created at any level of price the chart has visited because open and close prices depend on the point of reference you are using to measure that time section of the market.
  27. I would say that the majority of my trades I enter are closed within the same candle that I am using as a reference.
  28. But it depends as I like to let my winners run if possible.
  29. Price movement does not care about time-frames.
  30. I like viewing the m1 time frame but also like watching my reference time frame.
  31. The edge is if the candle is above the open it will likely close above the open. If it is below the open, it will likely close below the open. And as the studies show if you follow this idea, it works.
  32. if you let these winners ride and add to them your profits will exponentially increase further strengthening your edge.

My compilation on this thread. Time to churn this out thoroughly.

Opss. Don't forget this video:

Inserted Video


Good thread (at least for me)!
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  • #374
  • Jul 19, 2015 4:15pm Jul 19, 2015 4:15pm
"It doesn't matter at all where they are on the chart one does not hold more weight than another...ever."

There was a study, on a another forum, showing this is not the case.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #375
  • Jul 19, 2015 4:30pm Jul 19, 2015 4:30pm
.
  • #376
  • Jul 19, 2015 6:42pm Jul 19, 2015 6:42pm
Quoting redwed
Opss. Don't forget this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zauzbx-NnAc Good thread (at least for me)! {image}
This video resonated with me:
Inserted Video
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #377
  • Jul 20, 2015 4:30am Jul 20, 2015 4:30am
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} This video resonated with me: https://youtu.be/NahZU88BdQQ
My native language is not English..

Nice Video. Thank for both of you, tro and TooSlow..

Actually, I AM this kind of trader long time ago.. But, eventually I failed myself only because of money management factor.

Here is my trade Explorer..

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That is history, then I changed my method.. Now coming to this thread made me think. Why do I complicate things? Why don't I use only a line (like I always do in the Past).

I use too many indicators in one chart right now..

Need to revisit my memory on this one...
  • #378
  • Jul 20, 2015 5:14am Jul 20, 2015 5:14am
Quoting redwed
{quote} My native language is not English.. Nice Video. Thank for both of you, tro and TooSlow.. Actually, I AM this kind of trader long time ago.. But, eventually I failed myself only because of money management factor. Here is my trade Explorer.. {image} That is history, then I changed my method.. Now coming to this thread made me think. Why do I complicate things? Why don't I use only a line (like I always do in the Past). I use too many indicators in one chart right now.. Need to revisit my memory on this one...
As you can see, i also use GU as my main currency. Same like mr neio there. Deja-vu enough?!
  • #379
  • Jul 20, 2015 8:05am Jul 20, 2015 8:05am
Quoting redwed
That is history, then I changed my method.. Now coming to this thread made me think. Why do I complicate things? Why don't I use only a line (like I always do in the Past). I use too many indicators in one chart right now.. Need to revisit my memory on this one...

Why do I complicate things?

Human nature.

Why don't I use only a line (like I always do in the Past)?

You got distracted by indicator du jour.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #380
  • Jul 20, 2015 8:15am Jul 20, 2015 8:15am
""95% of the time price will close above or below the open." Amateurs will never see the edge in this quote, unless a professional point it out where the edge lies within this quote."

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Trade away from the open rather than towards is the message I glean.

Neio, are you still around?
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
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