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The Really Useless Thread

  • #136,201
  • Jul 18, 2015 4:48am Jul 18, 2015 4:48am
Quoting sisse
{quote} As expected, minions getting trapped on the doldrums of a Friday summer afternoon providing enough oxygen for a full bear close. We are rolling below 1.098x which pretty much confirm all mid term outlook that we have been talking about for the last 2 months. Tracking 1.084x for the roll as it will open a chance for a quick clean sweep in and out to 1.07xx handle very early next week.... Nothing to see at these levels so riding freely with same trades, same all... {quote} Thanks. Yes. My final targets for the current short term swing leg...
The downtrend in gold will only last while there is an expectation that granma will raise rates sometime soon. When everyone wakes up and realises she can't and won't raise rates..........
Free speech is an oxymoron
  • #136,202
  • Jul 18, 2015 6:17am Jul 18, 2015 6:17am
UMich biggest miss since 2006 and granma is gonna raise rates?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-0...sses-most-2006
Free speech is an oxymoron
  • #136,203
  • Jul 18, 2015 7:17am Jul 18, 2015 7:17am
Quoting sisse
{quote} As expected, minions getting trapped on the doldrums of a Friday summer afternoon providing enough oxygen for a full bear close. We are rolling below 1.098x which pretty much confirm all mid term outlook that we have been talking about for the last 2 months. Tracking 1.084x for the roll as it will open a chance for a quick clean sweep in and out to 1.07xx handle very early next week.... Nothing to see at these levels so riding freely with same trades, same all... {quote} Thanks. Yes. My final targets for the current short term swing leg...
Hi
Got 2 question to get things more clear with techniqual

what was Yellen Testifies all about?
Does she mention rate hike ?

looks 29 July tough day
  • #136,204
  • Jul 18, 2015 9:22am Jul 18, 2015 9:22am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} prolly was lost in translation....sure, sure, rate hike, you betcha... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ybcvlxivscw
U silly
Do u understand this

Sure it was A Question. Because there was a question mark.
And it was about "Fed Chair Yellen Testifies on 16 July".
What she said >>
-------------------
The second question about "Federal Funds Rate at 29 july"
What you expecting?
I ask because not so good follow the Fundamental
Got it?
  • #136,205
  • Jul 18, 2015 9:28am Jul 18, 2015 9:28am
Quoting egkid
{quote} U silly Do u understand this Sure it was A Question. Because there was a question mark. And it was about "Fed Chair Yellen Testifies on 16 July". What she said >> ------------------- The second question about "Federal Funds Rate at 29 july" What you expecting? I ask because not so good follow the Fundamental Got it?
This is a good summary of what she actually said as opposed to what MSM said she said

Inserted Video
Free speech is an oxymoron
  • #136,206
  • Jul 18, 2015 10:06am Jul 18, 2015 10:06am
Quoting Banzaisky
{quote} This is a good summary of what she actually said as opposed to what MSM said she said https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qWZvQBX-Lso
Thank you.
  • #136,207
  • Jul 18, 2015 11:58pm Jul 18, 2015 11:58pm
Quoting Banzaisky
UMich biggest miss since 2006 and granma is gonna raise rates?
zerohedge is a trailer park full of shitforbrains yobobs just up the gravel road from the message boards at Yahoo Finance. Fuckemall.

http://nymag.com/guides/money/2009/5...t-viewed-24h10
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136,208
  • Jul 19, 2015 12:14am Jul 19, 2015 12:14am
Quoting Banzaisky
The downtrend in gold will only last while there is an expectation that granma will raise rates sometime soon. When everyone wakes up and realises she can't and won't raise rates..........
there's a downtrend? There was a downtrend, and for the last 24 months, there has been a ranging market for gold, trending slightly down. I think it will take a whole lot more shtf than a few 25 bps ffr hikes to resuscitate gold, but on the other hand, wtf has been holding it up for so long? Anyway, I have to bet we see new equity index highs and new LL's for gold in the coming days..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136,209
  • Jul 19, 2015 2:39am Jul 19, 2015 2:39am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} zerohedge is a trailer park full of shitforbrains yobobs just up the gravel road from the message boards at Yahoo Finance. Fuckemall. http://nymag.com/guides/money/2009/5...t-viewed-24h10
Perhaps you could highlight which part of that report was wrong or maybe you prefer the MSM version, which also reported it.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...onomy-concerns
Free speech is an oxymoron
  • #136,210
  • Edited 5:49am Jul 19, 2015 5:33am | Edited 5:49am
Quoting Banzaisky
{quote}... - thats why she won't raise rates.
...No mate I don't think is time for conspiratorial theories on this one.

----> The question in play is not IF but How Many Times will the FED increase rates in the next 6 months?

Quoting egkid
{quote} Hi Got 2 question to get things more clear with techniqual what was Yellen Testifies all about? Does she mention rate hike ? looks 29 July tough day
----> Well more important than her testimony this week , her speech (here) the week before was the one officially opened the rates mode trading (RMT):

" ...My own outlook for the economy and inflation is broadly consistent with the central tendency of the projections submitted by FOMC participants at the time of our June meeting. Based on my outlook, I expect that it will be appropriate at some point later this year to take the first step to raise the federal funds rate and thus begin normalizing monetary policy..."



----> Look I have mentioned a few times in the thread:

  1. "is not important what IS in the Headlines NEWs but WHAT IS NOT".


While last week the main media (and sadly a lot minions and retail traders) were talking about Grexit here and there, a Tweet here or a loud vocal fart there from a EZ/Greek politicians, etc markets were actually listening to WHAT IT REALLY MATTERS in the Fundamental Side (RATES).

The testimony only reconfirmed in a more official venue the comments, thats it ...

----> On the FA side:

Short term we had a relative positive news for the Euro (risk/panic relief in Greece) and had a relative hawkish week for the Dollar (via Inflation).
However for the mid term we had a slightly negative week for the Euro (Greece troubles are worst and without Massive Debt reduction we just kicked the can for a few months again...), and more IMPORTANTLY a very HAWKISH week for the DOLLAR (FED officially opened rates hikes RMT).

----> On the TA side:

Given that the KEY FA in play were for the MID TERM moves the only area in play (since the last 2 weeks) was 1.098x/1.096x. The short term positive news from Greece just provided enough fuel to offset the momentum down ....

---> On the the question of hikes in July? ... uff I really doubt that we will see it. Not even the most hawkish of the hawkish think there is a realistic chance.

Basically, there is a very very marginal chance that the FED will shake expectations with a tiny small hike in July to outsmart the markets and quickly shake expectations avoiding the bastards to preempt to much the upcoming hikes....Although a valid CB policy option for cases like this, I doubt the FED is considering this time.... I'll track it as a least probable scenario in a couple of weeks...

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,211
  • Jul 19, 2015 7:07am Jul 19, 2015 7:07am
Quoting sisse
{quote} ...No mate I don't think is time for conspiratorial theories on this one. ----> The question in play is not IF but How Many Times will the FED increase rates in the next 6 months? {quote} ----> Well more important than her testimony this week , her speech (here) the week before was the one officially opened the rates mode trading (RMT): " ...My own outlook for the economy and inflation is broadly consistent with the central tendency of the projections submitted...
I notice you missed the ifs but's and maybes from the speech and only selected the bit that supported your thesis(you really should try to be more objective).

Based on my outlook, I expect(nothing definite abt that conditional on events) that it will be appropriate at some point later this year to take the first step to raise the federal funds rate and thus begin normalizing monetary policy. But I want to emphasize that the course of the economy and inflation remains highly uncertain, and unanticipated developments could delay or accelerate this first step. We will be watching carefully to see if there is continued improvement in labor market conditions, and we will need to be reasonably confident that inflation will move back to 2 percent in the next few years.

Let me also stress that this initial increase in the federal funds rate, whenever it occurs,

monetary policy will need to be highly supportive of economic activity for quite some time.
Implies lower rates not higher

"is not important what IS in the Headlines NEWs but WHAT IS NOT".- Exactly so, and all the headlines are saying that Yellen will hike in Sept or December


If you read the speech carefully there are so many caveats and get-out of jail free cards it is totally meaningless.
Free speech is an oxymoron
  • #136,212
  • Jul 19, 2015 6:38pm Jul 19, 2015 6:38pm
Quoting Banzaisky
{quote} I notice you missed the ifs but's and maybes from the speech and only selected the bit that supported your thesis(you really should try to be more objective). Based on my outlook, I expect(nothing definite abt that conditional on events) that it will be appropriate at some point later this year to take the first step to raise the federal funds rate and thus begin normalizing monetary policy. But I want to emphasize that the course of the economy and inflation remains highly uncertain, and unanticipated developments could delay or accelerate...
Of course there are caveats...The mantra of central bankers is to not disrupt markets unless it is for their own benefit. Yellen doesn't want the stock market to drop, so she has to make it seem gradual. IMO, she is slowly, very slowly, sounding more hawkish. But no, she is not hawkish yet b/c if she were, then the US stock markets would drop so hard it would send the US into another recession. She has to delude 95% of investors into thinking nothing is changing when they raise rates; and although I'm not a big fan, she is doing a good job at that.
defense wins championships
  • #136,213
  • Jul 20, 2015 1:04am Jul 20, 2015 1:04am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} True. On the weekly I'm looking at this though, expecting a third test of the trendline {image}
Looks like it might happen soon. Then maybe a bounce up to test the majenta line, if rate hikes are delayed again. (A test of the majenta line could also happen with a prolonged sideways - slightly higher movement too.)
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  • #136,214
  • Jul 20, 2015 1:15am Jul 20, 2015 1:15am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} Looks like it might happen soon. Then maybe a bounce up to test the majenta line, if rate hikes are delayed again. (A test of the majenta line could also happen with a prolonged sideways - slightly higher movement too.) {image}
1.0680 is good number.
  • #136,215
  • Jul 20, 2015 1:46am Jul 20, 2015 1:46am
Quoting Rockerzeus
{quote} 1.0680 is good number.
Yup. Prolly gonna bounce up abit first though - there was a 4 hr target at 082x
  • #136,216
  • Jul 20, 2015 1:58am Jul 20, 2015 1:58am
Quoting seemoore
{quote} Of course there are caveats...The mantra of central bankers is to not disrupt markets unless it is for their own benefit. Yellen doesn't want the stock market to drop, so she has to make it seem gradual. IMO, she is slowly, very slowly, sounding more hawkish. But no, she is not hawkish yet b/c if she were, then the US stock markets would drop so hard it would send the US into another recession. She has to delude 95% of investors into thinking nothing is changing when they raise rates; and although I'm not a big fan, she...
Thats exactly why she won't be able to normalize rates for a very long time IMHO
Free speech is an oxymoron
  • #136,217
  • Edited 2:23am Jul 20, 2015 2:11am | Edited 2:23am
Quoting sisse
watch out for GOLD !!! breaking down [check].... right on time for Europe going home.... All eyes on Gold as it will carry the rest of the board in the mid term swings .... sisse
Quoting The Fool
{quote} good call on gold, sisse - you have been on top of that for weeks it seems, so nice to see it break down if you traded it. Do you have any downside resistance targets in mind?
Quoting sisse
Yes. My final targets for the current short term swing leg (from 121x.xx) is 110x.xx [check]with max extension to the v strong 108x.xx [check].
​
@Fool ... a quick update: not much to comment mate except what a Great start of the week ...

-------------- --------------------------- ---------------------------
As expected, Macro stops getting demolished in GOLD on the W opening range with a nice opening fireworks ceremony for RMT.... However, meat of the move is gone until the next FOMC. Expecting a wide chop range until then (112x / 107x) ...

For the Euro and the rest of the board, gates are open to final targets for this week so there is not much to do for now. In the Euro, lots of air in the 1.08xx handle but as long as 1.082x holds in the next couple of sessions, 1.089x / 1.091x are naked for a test.... A tick below will open the low of the 1,070x handle ....

...Nothing new at these levels, same trades, same all .... GL this week...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,218
  • Jul 20, 2015 2:13am Jul 20, 2015 2:13am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} good call on gold, sisse - you have been on top of that for weeks it seems, so nice to see it break down if you traded it. Do you have any downside resistance targets in mind?
Yes, that was very very nice. Hats off to Sisse.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #136,219
  • Jul 20, 2015 2:26am Jul 20, 2015 2:26am
Quoting sisse
@Fool ... a quick update: not much to comment mate except what a Great start of the week ... .... However, meat of the move is gone until the next FOMC.
hope you were riding some short gold action, sisse, I know you were all over it. So now Greece will get they money so the ECB can get they money and the Greek tragedy fades from view? omg one can hope. So now the Fed show gets the prime time slot and every FOMC date from here on out should be accompanied by much hoopla until they finally do the deed. I am looking for US equities to grind up to recent highs or maybe better this week before seizing up b4 next week's FOMC.

Have a great week.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136,220
  • Jul 20, 2015 2:37am Jul 20, 2015 2:37am
Quoting sisse
{quote} {quote} {quote} ​ @Fool ... a quick update: not much to comment mate except what a Great start of the week ... -------------- --------------------------- --------------------------- 1.08xx handle but as long as 1.082x holds in the next couple of sessions, 1.089x / 1.091x are naked for a test..
Agree! Just the very highs in play on the dollar now, holding by inches, so like you say when 82 goes till the major monthly/quarterly target and maybe even a healthy overshoot there.

GL for the week, guys.
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