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The Really Useless Thread

  • #136,181
  • Jul 16, 2015 11:51am Jul 16, 2015 11:51am
How the hell is someone classified as an involuntary part time worker?
  • #136,182
  • Jul 16, 2015 11:55am Jul 16, 2015 11:55am
Quoting Banzaisky
{quote} discuss about how the numbers should be calculated Thought thats what we were doing I don't know what the real numbers are but to postulate that US is near full employment is plainly ridiculous. Even MSM thinks it is closer to 15% and it's almost guaranteed that they will underestimate the true rate. http://www.forbes.com/sites/dandimic...please-anyone/ {image}
...oh I see what is the issue now. I assumed you were an Economist .... look damn economists !!! as you probably know they make up a lot of technicalities and assumptions to explain macroeconomic models. One of them is "full employment".

 

  1. ---> Full employment is a technical term doesn't really mean 0 people out of work but in very rough terms is the highest amount workers that could be employed within the context of the total economy at a given time. The remaining is call the Natural Rate of unemployment (damn economists !!!)...


In simpler words, an economy is close to full employment when the supply of labour is about to match the demand (people looking for jobs) not when every single person have a job (only those who are actually looking for jobs ...whatever that means ).

 

  1. ---> Any economy in the world will have a natural rate of unemployment (usually around 2% and 4% ...if i remember correctly in the US the last time I check was 4.5%?) When a country reach near these levels economists say a country is reaching "full employment" because at these levels the economy is operating at full capacity and there is no more pressure from the demand side (people who are not working just don't want to work at any wage so they just decide to stay "happily unemployed".... whatever that means) ...


Now to the calculations, the methodology is way to complex for any of us to digest without proper training because we are talking about demand and supply side in the labour force not just number of people employ in a 9 to 5 with a boss and contract over the total population (as I mentioned before)....

 

  1. --->Sure you will always have more unemployed people in relative terms (because you will be using total population instead of actual working force ....) over the official statistics. Sadly, that is IRRELEVANT for macro analysis (damn economist again...).


The calculation in employment and natural rate of unemployment are pretty much accepted with all its flaws (in most countries around the develop world) as the closest thing you have of proper technical, quantitative and qualitative data for policy making (for example for the FED) otherwise it will be impossible to make any fiscal or monetary policy !!! ....

I hope it didn't get too confusing (damn economists...)...the point is: I see your point but we are taking about the actual macroeconomic concepts, tools, and statistics policy makers (investors and etc) use to make decision ...and for good or bad ...the US is approaching to full employment based on THOSE PARAMETERS ...

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,183
  • Edited 1:12pm Jul 16, 2015 12:43pm | Edited 1:12pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} ...oh I see what is the issue now. I assumed you were an Economist .... look damn economists !!! as you probably know they make up a lot of technicalities and assumptions to explain macroeconomic models. One of them is "full employment". ---> Full employment is a technical term doesn't really mean 0 people out of work but in very rough terms is the highest amount workers that could be employed within the context of the total economy at a given time. The remaining is call the Natural Rate of unemployment (damn economists !!!)... In simpler...
Yep bloody economists and statistics LOL - only they could describe 15/20% unemployment as ''full'' employment
Free speech is an oxymoron
  • #136,184
  • Jul 16, 2015 1:05pm Jul 16, 2015 1:05pm
Quoting Pharm0r
How the hell is someone classified as an involuntary part time worker?
Think they mean someone who wants a full time job but can't find one so they take a part time MacD job.
Or someone whos hours have been reduced to avoid Obamacare - below 20hrs
Free speech is an oxymoron
  • #136,185
  • Jul 16, 2015 2:10pm Jul 16, 2015 2:10pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} ...chin chin chin ... finally taking 1.088x swing target, only one final (1.073x) target left from the short term swing 1.124x .... In happy mode here as the rest is just a homerun ... Nothing to see here until the ECB.... sisse
....Hello sisse, so sisse is safe to say that this are the levels to watch? and if it breaks 1.0730, is home run, and if it breaks 1.1240, it may go into more retrace....thanks in advance.....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDMonthly.png Size: 38 KB
The Chonchy
  • #136,186
  • Jul 16, 2015 3:10pm Jul 16, 2015 3:10pm
Quoting chonchy
{quote} ....Hello sisse, so sisse is safe to say that this are the levels to watch? and if it breaks 1.0730, is home run, and if it breaks 1.1240, it may go into more retrace....thanks in advance..... {image}
Monthly chart !!!... thats a bit longer term for the levels above ...

Only quickly glancing at you chart alone, MACD and RSI look awfully bearish (which is no surprise). IMHO, I don't think the green line is a valid down channel neither the mid retrace will cut it in my charts (you maybe connecting unrelated swings ...). I really don't know where those pink horizontal lines come from so I can't comment....

For the rest its not much to see in that chart. 1.017x is naked for a test and 0.88xx is already unlocked. To the other side I see 1.178x as STRONG Resistance (still marginally open for a test as per today) and 1.139x R (already tested in play right now). Momentum (from that chart alone) only comes on a break 1.055x ...

On my quote, 1.073x its just a target for the short term swing (not visible in M chart) and 1.127x/4x is key R for a test 1.156x......

I hope it helps...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,187
  • Edited 7:27pm Jul 16, 2015 3:40pm | Edited 7:27pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Monthly chart !!!... thats a bit longer term for the levels above ... Only quickly glancing at you chart alone, MACD and RSI look awfully bearish (which is no surprise). IMHO, I don't think the green line is a valid down channel neither the mid retrace will cut it in my charts (you maybe connecting unrelated swings ...). I really don't know where those pink horizontal lines come from so I can't comment.... For the rest its not much to see in that chart. 1.017x is naked for a test and 0.88xx is already unlocked. To the other side I see 1.178x...
.......
The Chonchy
  • #136,188
  • Jul 16, 2015 11:26pm Jul 16, 2015 11:26pm
...Key Weekly close in play today. 1.098x only level to track for the roll. Today also we wrap the round of US reports for the next FOMC later this month [and prolly last one in a long long time in which we wont have actual hikes] with v. important inflation numbers in play.

For the european session until the news, euro hanging on a very feeble floor (in the expected 1.088x) and a soft wind from London can blow the euro to the bottom of the handle. However, there is a reported large options defended at 1.085x that will provide some action.... nothing to do here until the news so same levels, same trades, same all until then...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,189
  • Edited 1:01am Jul 17, 2015 12:44am | Edited 1:01am
Quoting hathor
{quote} An other technical pattern, which can support our view: (Even if current pattern is not perfect and even if it fails, it can also support a bounce ('try') from current levels) {image}
Quoting sisse
... I am not very use to chart patterns but for the sake of the argument here is my doddle interpreting your view in sisse's rough flows ( ).... sisse{image}
Quoting sisse

---> From a purely Chart point of view T2 could finally be in play with the right NFP and with extra fuel from Greece if the referendum is clear it. However, can you spot the potential TA problem and early alert [check]?

---> From a FA point of view, a truncated final wave is in play with the right NFP ....complete the leg of Greece defaulting[final check]...
Quoting sisse
...strong and key moves and with Greece referendum out of the table ... Chart update. {image} Prolly for the last time: Choose you poison time... I already chose mine GL sisse
Closing one of the last 2 pending conversation in the thread.... I think it has been a very informative conversation for some including lurkers, newbies and some experience traders too that have been following the conversation since late May....I hope it was useful for you to track TA alerts in combination with FA events...

Hathor this final chart update conclude our pending conversation. I leave a new mark just as reminder of what is in play in next few session.....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: update4.png Size: 190 KB


sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,190
  • Jul 17, 2015 5:29am Jul 17, 2015 5:29am
....here we go for the last round of numbers before the next FOMC. Direct impact expected in a delayed move that can extend until the roll given the levels in play (and later news with NY opening).

Eyes on inflation. Expecting a bit higher than forecast to confirm the FED comments in the last few days for a direct play until the Cut (for the option play) for 1.085x to 1.073x. Inline and we stay in the same micro chop. Undershoot for the play 1.096x.

Whatever the case, the only level in play for today roll is 1.098x....

GL all

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,191
  • Jul 17, 2015 6:49am Jul 17, 2015 6:49am
Quoting sisse
...Eyes on inflation. Expecting a bit higher than forecast to confirm the FED comments in the last few days for a direct play until the Cut (for the option play) for 1.085x to 1.073x. ...
As expected 1.085x providing aggressive defence but watch-out we knock them down just in time for the last news of the week (and the month in the US) ...

Gold flirting with a major break out (as discussed all week long) so all eyes there with the news. Technical intraday play expected with the upcoming reports. So no FA impact expected and only a massive undershoot will short-circuit the market ...

GL all planning or trading the last session ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,192
  • Jul 17, 2015 7:02am Jul 17, 2015 7:02am
....miss in the headline but 'unch' with the revision....that was it. London going home will settle the close of the week ...

Nothing to see here ...same levels, same trades, same all...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,193
  • Jul 17, 2015 7:02am Jul 17, 2015 7:02am
1.0850 DNT not valid anymore...us news disappoint for the break... last hope for leg down today is inertia play ..
edit: a go back above 1.088x would set the weekly low with potential roll @1.093x

hoom.
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #136,194
  • Jul 17, 2015 7:28am Jul 17, 2015 7:28am
it doesnt make any sense
  • #136,195
  • Jul 17, 2015 7:48am Jul 17, 2015 7:48am
Quoting hoom
1.0850 DNT not valid anymore...us news disappoint for the break... last hope for leg down today is inertia play .. edit: a go back above 1.088x would set the weekly low with potential roll @1.093x hoom.
yeap agree.... Minions getting spank will have priority if Europe doesn't take weekly profits...we'll see
Quoting arigoldman
it doesnt make any sense
what?
sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,196
  • Jul 17, 2015 8:56am Jul 17, 2015 8:56am
watch out for GOLD !!! breaking down .... right on time for Europe going home.... All eyes on Gold as it will carry the rest of the board in the mid term swings ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,197
  • Jul 17, 2015 10:28am Jul 17, 2015 10:28am
Quoting sisse
watch out for GOLD !!! breaking down .... right
good call on gold, sisse - you have been on top of that for weeks it seems, so nice to see it break down if you traded it. Do you have any downside resistance targets in mind?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136,198
  • Jul 17, 2015 1:51pm Jul 17, 2015 1:51pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} yeap agree.... Minions getting spank will have priority if Europe doesn't take weekly profits...we'll see {quote} what? sisse
As expected, minions getting trapped on the doldrums of a Friday summer afternoon providing enough oxygen for a full bear close. We are rolling below 1.098x which pretty much confirm all mid term outlook that we have been talking about for the last 2 months.

Tracking 1.084x for the roll as it will open a chance for a quick clean sweep in and out to 1.07xx handle very early next week.... Nothing to see at these levels so riding freely with same trades, same all...

Quoting The Fool
{quote} good call on gold, sisse - you have been on top of that for weeks it seems, so nice to see it break down if you traded it. Do you have any downside resistance targets in mind?
Thanks.

Yes. My final targets for the current short term swing leg (from 121x.xx) is 110x.xx with max extension to the v strong 108x.xx .

Sadly we couldn't clean break on weekly today but the MAIN targets for the mid term leg (hikes play) are 99x.xx and final extension to 87x.xx (prolly next year at the end of the main gradual hike cycle).

To the other side as long as we don't break down for the mid term swing 119x.xx / 121x.xx is main and strong R area.(below there are only soft levels for now to even consider them)...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,199
  • Jul 17, 2015 6:45pm Jul 17, 2015 6:45pm
The Greece show is over, now get ready for the Fed show. I am gonna need to find a way to inject caffeine directly into my brain.....

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/17/why-t...im-bianco.html
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136,200
  • Jul 17, 2015 8:19pm Jul 17, 2015 8:19pm
Quoting sisse
My final targets for the current short term swing leg (from 121x.xx) is 110x.xx with max extension to the v strong 108x.xx . Sadly we couldn't clean break on weekly today but the MAIN targets for the mid term leg (hikes play) are 99x.xx and final extension to 87x.xx (prolly next year at the end of the main gradual hike cycle). To the other side as long as we don't break down for the mid term swing 119x.xx / 121x.xx is main and strong R area.(below there are only soft levels for now to even consider them)... sisse
re: gold, I don't understand the fickle yellow metal, but it has not been able to show any upside tendencies for some time, even in the face of all the recent brouhaha over Greece. The "conventional wisdom" is that we are entering the seasonal strength of gold, with (supposedly) Asian traders hustling to replenish stocks that are being depleted for the upcoming Indian wedding season.

http://investorplace.com/2013/06/sea.../#.VanEHSDH_X4

http://sbioak.org/ILUINDIA/Gold%20Mi...1242076819.jpg
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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