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  • #136,161
  • Jul 15, 2015 4:02pm Jul 15, 2015 4:02pm
...and that was it probably for the most important day in the Euro for the rest of the summer.

We couldn't get a clean break but euro hanging on a very thin thread after FED officially opened the RMT season. Neither we got the noisy greek vote confirmation (it will come any minute overnight) and without it there is no momentum anywhere. Tomorrow will get a bunch of parliaments across the EZ approving the deal but more importantly all eyes in the ECB first conference after Greece defaulted ...

1.088x naked for a test with the inertia play in the Asian session until the ECB. Below (to 1,073x and beyond) it will need a proper break. To the other side nothing to see below 1.108x

Got what i needed ...GL all trading overnight ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,162
  • Jul 15, 2015 4:51pm Jul 15, 2015 4:51pm
Quoting kenfen69
...........
Catch you again sometime soon.
hope it b soon
we miss U HERE
  • #136,163
  • Jul 15, 2015 5:26pm Jul 15, 2015 5:26pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} ...well I think you didnt read my post ... {quote} ..."unemployment" IS NOT EQUAL to "population not in the labour force" (sound similar but is not) ... if you use that data, the most developed country in the world (NORWAY...) will still have some serious poverty and unemployment problems as the ppl not in the labour force is nearly 50% !!! (data) which is obviously NOT TRUE (it applies to any country in the world, except maybe the Vatican, Monaco or San Marino, etc ...)...
If I am an adult and I ain't working I am unemployed - whether the govt counts me or not is immaterial.

Lets compromise and go with shadowstats LOL
Free speech is an oxymoron
  • #136,164
  • Jul 16, 2015 5:44am Jul 16, 2015 5:44am
Quoting sisse
... 1.088x naked for a test with the inertia play in the Asian session until the ECB. Below (to 1,073x and beyond) it will need a proper break. To the other side nothing to see below 1.108x Got what i needed ...
...chin chin chin ... finally taking 1.088x swing target, only one final (1.073x) target left from the short term swing 1.124x .... In happy mode here as the rest is just a homerun ...

Nothing to see here until the ECB....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,165
  • Jul 16, 2015 5:53am Jul 16, 2015 5:53am
Quoting sisse
{quote} ...chin chin chin ... finally taking 1.088x swing target, only one final (1.073x) target left from the short term swing 1.124x .... In happy mode here as the rest is just a homerun ... Nothing to see here until the ECB.... sisse
Sorry sisse, does it mean that there is a possibility for it to swing back so high.
TIA
  • #136,166
  • Jul 16, 2015 6:04am Jul 16, 2015 6:04am
Quoting Banzaisky
{quote} If I am an adult and I ain't working I am unemployed - whether the govt counts me or not is immaterial. Lets compromise and go with shadowstats LOL
"If I am an adult and I ain't working I am unemployed" ... No!...

...I am startup company owner, I am incorporate small business without employees, I own a hotdog cart outside of Wall Street, i am one of the few millions over 65 and I am happily retired in Florida, hell I am Bill Gates and I don't want to be employe ever again, I am a mother that decided to enjoy childcare for a couple of years, hell I am father and decide to take paternity leave, I am rich kid and my daddy pays for me to get high and crash masserati for fun, I am gold digger and I will never plan to work, I am musician or and artist, hell I am escort, damm I am student that want to travel the world,...oh maybe I am trader.....etc etc etc, etc,

No mate no compromise in this topic (sorry ) . There is no way any serious investor/trader or economist will just use some bias interpretations of statistics.... There is no way you are going to convince me that the US is poorer than Zimbabwe according to skewed labour statistics ...

In any case lets leave it here, US in reaching fast to full employment defined in proper macroeconomic terms that are the only one useful for macroecomic, financial, investment and trading decisions ...any other interpretation of unemployment we can leave it for discussion on a different level....


Quoting historian
{quote} Sorry sisse, does it mean that there is a possibility for it to swing back so high. TIA
Why?

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,167
  • Jul 16, 2015 6:08am Jul 16, 2015 6:08am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Why? sisse
No, I'm holding a short from 1.099x. Just want to be careful cos I'm very new.
  • #136,168
  • Jul 16, 2015 8:37am Jul 16, 2015 8:37am
All settle for NY session. We cleared ECB and Greece approval... all done and clear. Back to summer trading but with the map defined. Nothing to see here, same levels, same trades, same all....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,169
  • Jul 16, 2015 9:04am Jul 16, 2015 9:04am
Quoting sisse
All settle for NY session. We cleared ECB and Greece approval... all done and clear. Back to summer trading but with the map defined. Nothing to see here, same levels, same trades, same all.... sisse
so we have 1.122x [1.127x] - 1.073x range for summer play ? 1.0850 is a DNT & we bounced 70 pips ...

hoom.
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #136,170
  • Jul 16, 2015 9:22am Jul 16, 2015 9:22am
Interesting bounce in EURUSD

EUR at trendline and support , same level (1) where SNB helped to fill the first out of the 3 Weekend Gaps
and
USDX H4 failed to break through (yet)
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  • #136,171
  • Edited 11:08am Jul 16, 2015 9:38am | Edited 11:08am
Quoting sisse
{quote} ...chin chin chin ... finally taking 1.088x swing target, only one final (1.073x) target left from the short term swing 1.124x .... In happy mode here as the rest is just a homerun ... Nothing to see here until the ECB.... sisse
hey sisse,

just wondering. since the macro outlook is now pretty clear, RMT in place (hopefully its gonna be strengthen by coming macro number, e.g. US inflation fomorrow), Greece has kicked the can (= seems like no risk even on the horizont, at least for now).

you talking about "taking 1.088x swing target, only one final (1.073x) target left from the short term swing 1.124x".

So... would you agree that this short term swing from 1.124 is wave 1 of a medium term swing to parity? Which would suggest there should be some kind of consolidation - wave 2 - most probably short and simple given the RMT enviroment- before the strongest motive wave starts?

Ehm, not sure if you are fan of EW count but I bet you know what I mean - just rying to fugure out the potentional structure of the mid term leg under RMT

Thank you!


P.S.: what do you think about the equity rally? as u mentioned: "Also expecting equites in the US to shift correlation with the dollar and start forming a solid floor in the upcoming sessions...". Is it just the old same story? - i.e. on the greek deal "euphoria" pretending there are no rate hikes (no RMT) just to scare FED? Seems like it could be nasty for equities once the hikes come if its not gonna take any acount of it.
  • #136,172
  • Jul 16, 2015 9:38am Jul 16, 2015 9:38am
Quoting sisse
All settle for NY session. We cleared ECB and Greece approval... all done and clear. Back to summer trading but with the map defined. Nothing to see here, same levels, same trades, same all.... sisse
I've got an opinion that if Yellen re-nigs, at pushes hikes to 2016 (unlikely I know, but possible)

Would that null and void the yearly/quarterly high you've set for the EU? I'm thinking a play to 1.2xxx

Too early to tell of course, and I know you don't like to make assumptions that far in the future- but I'd like your thoughts on a contingency plan
  • #136,173
  • Jul 16, 2015 11:21am Jul 16, 2015 11:21am
Quoting hoom
{quote} so we have 1.122x [1.127x] - 1.073x range for summer play ? 1.0850 is a DNT & we bounced 70 pips ... hoom.
Agree...

Quoting chester123
{quote} hey sisse, just wondering. since the macro outlook is now pretty clear, RMT in place.... So... would you agree that this short term swing from 1.124 is wave 1 of a medium term swing to parity?
Exactly !!!... who are you? ... I keep reading your post and you seem you are reading my brain or hacking my charts ...

Quote
Which would suggest there should be some kind of consolidation - wave 2 - most probably short and simple given the RMT enviroment- before the strongest motive wave starts?

Well that is a tricky one. I don't think the retrace wave (wave 2 in your words or whatever ...I know exactly what you mean with or without EW) will be that noisy. We are too close to hikes meaning that the consolidation/retrace will be rather quick (we are talking mid term swings so quick = a few weeks... I guess we are clear on that part) ...
Quote
what do you think about the equity rally? as u mentioned: "Also expecting equites in the US to shift correlation with the dollar and start forming a solid floor in the upcoming sessions...". Is it just the old same story? -..... Seems like it could be nasty for equities once the hikes come if its not gonna take any acount of it.

Indeed same old story.... Equities are officially out of my portfolio from next FOMC until late september .... I wont touch US equities. Best case scenario they will be flat after the down hikes knee jerk reaction and back up ....so nothing to see there ...

Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} I've got an opinion that if Yellen re-nigs, at pushes hikes to 2016 (unlikely I know, but possible) Would that null and void the yearly/quarterly high you've set for the EU? I'm thinking a play to 1.2xxx..
What would void it? A miracle or a sudden major unexpected externality in the US. Yearly high is SET in the euro. Quarterly High not yet as long as 1.08xx handle holds and we don't roll this month (but its pretty much a done deal). 1.2xxx is LOCKED since last M close. 1.174x is still very marginally open and 1.156x is unlocked (depends on this W roll below 1.096x)...

Pushing hikes for 2016 (seem extremely difficult after latest FED developments) will just leave us in wide and noisy chop zone (1.073x / 1.156x) until late in the autumn...

We'll see...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,174
  • Jul 16, 2015 11:59am Jul 16, 2015 11:59am
Quoting sisse
{quote} "If I am an adult and I ain't working I am unemployed" ... No!... ...I am startup company owner, I am incorporate small business without employees, I own a hotdog cart outside of Wall Street, i am one of the few millions over 65 and I am happily retired in Florida, hell I am Bill Gates and I don't want to be employe ever again, I am a mother that decided to enjoy childcare for a couple of years, hell I am father and decide to take paternity leave, I am rich kid and my daddy pays for me to get high and crash masserati for fun, I am gold digger...
Ok but I still think Shadowstats figures are closer to truth than the BS from BLS
Free speech is an oxymoron
  • #136,175
  • Jul 16, 2015 12:13pm Jul 16, 2015 12:13pm
Thanks for the thoughts sisse
  • #136,176
  • Jul 16, 2015 12:20pm Jul 16, 2015 12:20pm
Anyone expecting a big impact of Yellen's testimony in about an hour? And as it was held yesterday, is there actually a testimony for today?
  • #136,177
  • Jul 16, 2015 12:36pm Jul 16, 2015 12:36pm
Quoting Banzaisky
{quote} Ok but I still think Shadowstats figures are closer to truth than the BS from BLS
...Well even the most hardcore of the hardcore Republican/Tea party will struggle to sell the idea that the US has the same unemployment rate than Greece...and if that is the case, perhaps the Greeks shouldn't feel that bad knowing that they are in the same level as the richest country on the planet ...Common sense first mate. 1/4 of the working force in the richest country in the planet unemployed???, doesn't make sense under any parameters

Whatever the case and as I mentioned before, in our business we only pay attention on what the policy makers, analyst, CB, investors and speculators are tracking and that is the official numbers ....everything else is for a nice different discussion about either methodology in the calculations or the politics/ideology behind it.

We are going nowhere with this conversation, we either talk about the actual official numbers and the implications for the economy or we discuss about how the numbers should be calculate ...otherwise we wont get much ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,178
  • Jul 16, 2015 1:18pm Jul 16, 2015 1:18pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} ...Well even the most hardcore of the hardcore Republican/Tea party will struggle to sell the idea that the US has the same unemployment rate than Greece...and if that is the case, perhaps the Greeks shouldn't feel that bad knowing that they are in the same level as the richest country on the planet ...Common sense first mate. 1/4 of the working force in the richest country in the planet unemployed???, doesn't make sense under any parameters Whatever the case and as I mentioned before, in our business we only pay attention on what the policy...
discuss about how the numbers should be calculated
Thought thats what we were doing

I don't know what the real numbers are but to postulate that US is near full employment is plainly ridiculous. Even MSM thinks it is closer to 15% and it's almost guaranteed that they will underestimate the true rate.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/dandimic...please-anyone/

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Free speech is an oxymoron
  • #136,179
  • Jul 16, 2015 1:35pm Jul 16, 2015 1:35pm
yellen, dovish, hawkish? I can't find it
  • #136,180
  • Jul 16, 2015 1:39pm Jul 16, 2015 1:39pm
something wrong in the FED's page? Showing last update on 28 April!!!!
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsev...5testimony.htm
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