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AUD/USD

  • #91,241
  • Jul 14, 2015 9:56am Jul 14, 2015 9:56am
I like being short here. .7500 holding as resistance, not much of a pop after bad US retail sales, and strong AUD business confidence...

Leveraged funds are short and adding to their positions
  • #91,242
  • Jul 14, 2015 10:35am Jul 14, 2015 10:35am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} how many lots bcoz carney just took ur account. gbp heading to 1.60
yea that dude got me nicely. i had just dozed off and woke up right as the madness took place. i didnt expect much from the short i was actually sitting in a good spot for a while but that really pissed me off. im taking the rest of the day off to cool out. dont want to trade emotionally.
  • #91,243
  • Jul 14, 2015 7:22pm Jul 14, 2015 7:22pm
Quoting giveachance
{quote} I haven't seen a pathetic pair like this. it never retraced more than 500 pips in the entire 2 years
Low 7533 2/4/15 to high 8164 14/5/15 is 631 pips.
Low 8660 24/1/14 to high 9505 2/7/14 is 845 pips.

Both within the last 2 years.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #91,244
  • Jul 14, 2015 9:12pm Jul 14, 2015 9:12pm
Chinese data has provided a nice spike up which I've taken the opportunity to short. 1 position at 7472 but was too slow on another at 7483. With 15min & 1hr RSI both showing overbought and price being 90+ pip from recent lows, I am confident of opportunities to close lower. If keeps going higher I will attempt to climb the ladder (open positions higher and close the lower ones on retraces, leaving me with a position near the top when price next falls 50+ pip.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #91,245
  • Jul 14, 2015 9:13pm Jul 14, 2015 9:13pm
Quoting dab
Chinese data has provided a nice spike up which I've taken the opportunity to short. 1 position at 7472 but was too slow on another at 7483. With 15min & 1hr RSI both showing overbought and price being 90+ pip from recent lows, I am confident of opportunities to close lower. If keeps going higher I will attempt to climb the ladder (open positions higher and close the lower ones on retraces, leaving me with a position near the top when price next falls 50+ pip.
dangerous
use leverage with caution...
  • #91,246
  • Jul 14, 2015 9:27pm Jul 14, 2015 9:27pm
Quoting jsshuai
{quote} dangerous
Not in my opinion when my position sizing is relatively small for opening positions and statistics are on my side.
Edit - with resistance above as well.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #91,247
  • Jul 14, 2015 9:28pm Jul 14, 2015 9:28pm
Quoting Lamira
{image}
moved sl @. 744
  • #91,248
  • Jul 14, 2015 10:06pm Jul 14, 2015 10:06pm
Quoting dab
{quote} Not in my opinion when my position sizing is relatively small for opening positions and statistics are on my side. Edit - with resistance above as well.

well.. your method works best in sideways market. but when market is trending, it can get ugly. but small positions does mitigate risk.
use leverage with caution...
  • #91,249
  • Edited Jul 15, 2015 3:01am Jul 14, 2015 10:28pm | Edited Jul 15, 2015 3:01am
After deep retracement, it's moving up towards potential target 0.7650, with SL 0.7413 at invalidation of wave count.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD_15Jul15.png Size: 66 KB
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #91,250
  • Jul 14, 2015 10:35pm Jul 14, 2015 10:35pm
Quoting jsshuai
{quote} well.. your method works best in sideways market. but when market is trending, it can get ugly. but small positions does mitigate risk.
I change my method depending on market conditions, but you make a good point about trending. Thing is that on current positions I'm actually trading with the trend - increasing my odds. Had to look back to 18th and 3rd June for previous examples of what price did when 1hr RSI got to 70+.

3rd June is particularly good case study - can need the ability to have market go 135+ pip against your initial position (110 against first without opportunity to exit due to holding higher position) but very profitable overall.

I would not trade 15min RSI against the trend - would more likely look at 4hr or daily (especially at current price levels where monthly RSI is borderline oversold.)
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #91,251
  • Jul 14, 2015 10:55pm Jul 14, 2015 10:55pm
Quoting dab
{quote} I change my method depending on market conditions, but you make a good point about trending. Thing is that on current positions I'm actually trading with the trend - increasing my odds. Had to look back to 18th and 3rd June for previous examples of what price did when 1hr RSI got to 70+. 3rd June is particularly good case study - can need the ability to have market go 135+ pip against your initial position (110 against first without opportunity to exit due to holding higher position) but very profitable overall. I would not trade 15min RSI...
normally, i'm not a big fan of fundamentals, but the chinese data that just came out was definitely bullish and could push the market higher. on the 4hr chart, looks like 7480 is the resistance. i wouldn't risk anything beyond this level.
use leverage with caution...
  • #91,252
  • Jul 15, 2015 4:46am Jul 15, 2015 4:46am
AUDUSD's inability to clear 0.7500 mark resistance seems to increase the prospects of further downside. The bearish outlook gets confirmed once the pair drops back below 0.7440-35 immediate horizontal support, which if broken would increase its vulnerability to continue drifting lower, possibly below 0.7300 mark.
  • #91,253
  • Jul 15, 2015 9:04am Jul 15, 2015 9:04am
that was a nice morning, 1 of 5 lots i took before 8am

Attached Image
forex forex forex
  • #91,254
  • Jul 15, 2015 9:11am Jul 15, 2015 9:11am
Quoting HareshBM
AUDUSD's inability to clear 0.7500 mark resistance seems to increase the prospects of further downside. The bearish outlook gets confirmed once the pair drops back below 0.7440-35 immediate horizontal support, which if broken would increase its vulnerability to continue drifting lower, possibly below 0.7300 mark.
This pair testing the low again, due to the strength of the USD, this pair should break easily.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #91,255
  • Jul 15, 2015 10:19am Jul 15, 2015 10:19am
Quoting Ssm
{quote} This pair testing the low again, due to the strength of the USD, this pair should break easily.
Make or break. Testing critical level at .7370 again. Once broken, not much support below. We might see further levels below.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #91,256
  • Jul 15, 2015 10:49am Jul 15, 2015 10:49am
Tp still open until clear reverse signal
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_2015-07-15-11-51-12.png Size: 267 KB
  • #91,257
  • Jul 15, 2015 11:03am Jul 15, 2015 11:03am
Quoting Ssm
{quote} Make or break. Testing critical level at .7370 again. Once broken, not much support below. We might see further levels below.
i was waiting for this to break. now im looking south again. if we get a bounce up here, im going to kiss the baby and enter short
  • #91,258
  • Edited Jul 16, 2015 12:51am Jul 15, 2015 10:05pm | Edited Jul 16, 2015 12:51am
very nice double bottom on the 4hr chart at .73548

Good Risk reward to go long here.

Update: Currently .7350 holding up well, break below and i will go short, otherwise, i will buy it up from this region.
  • #91,259
  • Jul 16, 2015 2:44am Jul 16, 2015 2:44am
I guess, sooner or later, a retrace is waiting for us, may on Friday
  • #91,260
  • Jul 16, 2015 7:08am Jul 16, 2015 7:08am
Looks like AUD/USD has bottomed, it should have dropped considering Eur/Usd & kiwi has dropped significantly today.
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