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  • #136,141
  • Jul 15, 2015 6:09am Jul 15, 2015 6:09am
...and that was it. As expected a pretty comatose session with euro stuck in chop zone. Early lunch in Europe and lots of potential movers and shakers coming before NY open.

All micro levels raised as we have Greek Bs in play until they vote but more importantly tracking YELLEN text (first) in the next hour and after for question time with NY opening.

Tracking closely the euro as the triple key combo of reports for the week starts at the top of next hour. 1.128x top of the compress range, 1.096x bottom... 1.108x micro flip zone.... sitting tight on positions here until further data comes ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,142
  • Jul 15, 2015 7:28am Jul 15, 2015 7:28am
All eyes on Yellen ....

Simple play expected.

More dovish than in the minutes and last Friday comments will pretty much kill 2 hikes for this year (tbc on the next FOMC) opening a test 1.128x and the 1.14xx handle on a break.

Inline with expectations (dovish but not dovish enough). Nothing new and we get chop zone with a bearish tone with all eyes at 1.096x.

An unexpected hawkish and will see 1.073x in the next couple of session non stop...

GL all if we get a mover.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,143
  • Jul 15, 2015 7:31am Jul 15, 2015 7:31am
Slightly hawkish ...confirmation of RMT in play with a hike this year, economic outlook positive with gradual hikes confirmed ....

Watch out the floor...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,144
  • Jul 15, 2015 8:14am Jul 15, 2015 8:14am
Quoting sisse
Slightly hawkish ...confirmation of RMT in play with a hike this year, economic outlook positive with gradual hikes confirmed .... Watch out the floor... sisse
would welcome full hawkish tone. Or full dovish tone. I do not like chop..
Intraday only.
  • #136,145
  • Jul 15, 2015 8:21am Jul 15, 2015 8:21am
Quoting navk
{quote} would welcome full hawkish tone. Or full dovish tone. I do not like chop..
Text was clearly more to the hawkish side (without being overwhelming hawkish) but enough to kill most if not all the extreme dovish betting on no hikes this year... ... i doubt they will pull YELLEN's tongue much more than that in todays and tomorrow Q&A ...

Important points. We are officially in RMT (rates mode trading), hikes will be gradual, economy is improving and inflation is ticking up (all the ingredients for hikes for the first time in 6 years)...

1.096x tested right on time for NY, expecting tweet any minute from Greece confirming the deal (not expecting much of a reaction but in tracking mode just in case) and tomorrow Eurogroup will formally accept (or not) the Greece request (a formality really) ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,146
  • Jul 15, 2015 8:23am Jul 15, 2015 8:23am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Text was clearly more to the hawkish side (without being overwhelming hawkish) but enough to kill most if not all the extreme dovish betting on no hikes this year... ... i doubt they will pull YELLEN's tongue much more than that in todays and tomorrow Q&A ... Important points. We are officially in RMT (rates mode trading), hikes will be gradual, economy is improving and inflation is ticking up (all the ingredients for hikes for the first time in 6 years)... 1.096x tested right on time for NY, expecting tweet any minute from Greece confirming...
The price at support, some news is required for next move, yes.
Intraday only.
  • #136,147
  • Jul 15, 2015 8:27am Jul 15, 2015 8:27am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Text was clearly more to the hawkish side (without being overwhelming hawkish) but enough to kill most if not all the extreme dovish betting on no hikes this year... ... i doubt they will pull YELLEN's tongue much more than that in todays and tomorrow Q&A ... Important points. We are officially in RMT (rates mode trading), hikes will be gradual, economy is improving and inflation is ticking up (all the ingredients for hikes for the first time in 6 years)... 1.096x tested right on time for NY, expecting tweet any minute from Greece confirming...
Quoting navk
{quote} The price at support, some news is required for next move, yes.
I think its going to break even without further news. Just look at gold. Seems like gold got the message about RMT pretty quick - seems to be the most senstive one (generally)
  • #136,148
  • Jul 15, 2015 8:27am Jul 15, 2015 8:27am
Quoting navk
{quote} The price at support, some news is required for next move, yes.
well FED news was pretty big, wasn't it? ....for today we just need to clear the greek tweet & twat that has hijacked markets the last 3 weeks with noise ....

we'll see in a few...

sisse

Quoting chester123
{quote} {quote} Just look at gold. Seems like gold got the message about RMT pretty quick - seems to be the most senstive one (generally)
Indeed, we have been talking about that the last 3 weeks. GOLD will be the one to break first with rates play ... flirting with a major break ...but is a major one so all eyes on the W close....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,149
  • Jul 15, 2015 11:29am Jul 15, 2015 11:29am
...and that was it for the session. Europe going home with Euro hanging in its fingernails (but hanging at the end so far). Greece keep proving support (an oxymoron but thats how markets work) for the Euro and we wont break down in peace with risk/panic still on the air (it always has been and will be like this).

We are pretty much certain that Greece vote will be cleared until the roll but there is a bunch of parliaments approvals in line for tomorrow (from Germany to Spain, Belgium ,etc etc) and finally the final approval @ the eurogroup .... Expecting at least one more moving tweet today...

KEY roll today...until then same levels, same trades, same all

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,150
  • Edited 12:24pm Jul 15, 2015 11:39am | Edited 12:24pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} well FED news was pretty big, wasn't it? ....for today we just need to clear the greek tweet & twat that has hijacked markets the last 3 weeks with noise .... we'll see in a few... sisse {quote} Indeed, we have been talking about that the last 3 weeks. GOLD will be the one to break first with rates play ... flirting with a major break ...but is a major one so all eyes on the W close.... sisse
Yellen finally coming to the party and we can start thinking about 3 or 4 quarter hikes. Dollar index resistance 97.40/1092 still ultimately capping the move for now but another deep breach of the range. Let's see if we can hold. In my book it's a momentum break-out with a daily break of 0915 and onto the quarterly test.
  • #136,151
  • Jul 15, 2015 12:05pm Jul 15, 2015 12:05pm
Quoting ClinicalEx
{quote} Yellen finally coming to the party and we can start thinking about 3 or 4 quarter hikes. Dollar index resistance 94.40/1092 still ultimately capping the move for now but another deep breach of the range. Let's see if we can hold. In my book it's a momentum break-out with a daily break of 0915 and onto the quarterly test.
With the economy quickly approaching to full employment, inflation starting to tick up and with bonds starting to go overboard, there is nowhere to go for the Fed but to hike...Yeap I see what u mean with the daily break but don't forget there is a mid term leg also in play so real momentum could be "delayed" by a few weeks until we confirm the break of the 1.08xx handle with a M/W roll combo...We'll see how it pans out...for now no break no shake...sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,152
  • Jul 15, 2015 1:48pm Jul 15, 2015 1:48pm
Hi folks,

Like the contributions in this thread, its a great read.

Seeing we are at support area and Mid-month, with some potential divergence (EUR/USD and Indexes).
Its July so I am expecting a reversal for more range play to come, even chase towards the highs for another few weeks.

Would be careful to jump on breakouts this time of year.
  • #136,153
  • Jul 15, 2015 2:04pm Jul 15, 2015 2:04pm
Euro hanging on air. A test 1.087x looks unavoidable even as early as today.....

However, we haven't receive the confirmation of the vote yet (so we wont break anywhere with force until is cleared) while the main stream media are starting to spread fear with protesters, molotov, fire and etc but for the look of it in TV, it just seem as the typical few Greek anarchists that breath and feed with chaos whenever and wherever ...As long as it doesnt spread is nothing to see...

Tracking closely the roll and tangentially the Greek vote until then...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,154
  • Jul 15, 2015 2:13pm Jul 15, 2015 2:13pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} With the economy quickly approaching to full employment, inflation starting to tick up and with bonds starting to go overboard, there is nowhere to go for the Fed but to hike...Yeap I see what u mean with the daily break but don't forget there is a mid term leg also in play so real momentum could be "delayed" by a few weeks until we confirm the break of the 1.08xx handle with a M/W roll combo...We'll see how it pans out...for now no break no shake...sisse
Now I thought you had nearly 100 million ppl not in the workforce - does that really constitute full employment??
Free speech is an oxymoron
  • #136,155
  • Jul 15, 2015 2:20pm Jul 15, 2015 2:20pm
Quoting Banzaisky
{quote} Now I thought you had nearly 100 million ppl not in the workforce - does that really constitute full employment??
lol mate 100 mill ??? are you quoting Russian media ? je je je ... you know 100 mill will make Zimbabwe looks comparable, don't you? ...

Without kidding I think you are using skewed interpretations of the data (you need to check the actual working age labour force not the total population). Regardless if the official data is good or bad, 1/3 of the working age population !!! will put the US in Central African levels ...so common sense first mate...

If you are interested in discussing employment numbers and how full employment is defined in macroeconomic terms we can start with the official source first (bls data) and then we can discuss details ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,156
  • Jul 15, 2015 3:03pm Jul 15, 2015 3:03pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} lol mate 100 mill ??? are you quoting Russian media ? je je je ... you know 100 mill will make Zimbabwe looks comparable, don't you? ... Without kidding I think you are using skewed interpretations of the data (you need to check the actual working age labour force not the total population). Regardless if the official data is good or bad, 1/3 of the working age population !!! will put the US in Central African levels ...so common sense first mate... If you are interested in discussing employment numbers and how full employment...
Nope I got my figures same place you did BLS http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t16.htm and they say there is 92+ mill ppl not in the labour force - that is abt 33% which is actually worse than SA at 25%.
Free speech is an oxymoron
  • #136,157
  • Jul 15, 2015 3:11pm Jul 15, 2015 3:11pm
man we are banging on that daily... If it breaks its payday... come on lil fella
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  • #136,158
  • Jul 15, 2015 3:19pm Jul 15, 2015 3:19pm
Thanks for all of you that post your views and opinions and research on the market... It's been very helpful in decision making.

-Jon
  • #136,159
  • Jul 15, 2015 3:21pm Jul 15, 2015 3:21pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} lol mate 100 mill ??? are you quoting Russian media ? je je je ... you know 100 mill will make Zimbabwe looks comparable, don't you? ... Without kidding I think you are using skewed interpretations of the data (you need to check the actual working age labour force not the total population). Regardless if the official data is good or bad, 1/3 of the working age population !!! will put the US in Central African levels ...so common sense first mate... If you are interested in discussing employment numbers and how full employment is defined...
Or Shadowstats has it at 25% - depends how you measure it I guess,

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate...loyment-charts
Free speech is an oxymoron
  • #136,160
  • Jul 15, 2015 3:27pm Jul 15, 2015 3:27pm
Quoting Banzaisky
{quote} Nope I got my figures same place you did BLS http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t16.htm and they say there is 92+ mill ppl not in the labour force - that is abt 33% which is actually worse than SA at 25%.
...well I think you didnt read my post ...

Quoting sisse
...I think you are using skewed interpretations of the data (you need to check the actual working age labour force not the total population)....
..."unemployment" IS NOT EQUAL to "population not in the labour force" (sound similar but is not) ... if you use that data, the most developed country in the world (NORWAY...) will still have some serious poverty and unemployment problems as the ppl not in the labour force is nearly 50% !!! (data) which is obviously NOT TRUE (it applies to any country in the world, except maybe the Vatican, Monaco or San Marino, etc ...) ...

My point is that one shouldn't confuse participation in the work force with unemployment ...they are completely different numbers....

Quoting fxjawn
man we are banging on that daily... If it breaks its payday... come on lil fella {image}
Do you think the bastards will do it that easy ???? ... ...I hope so ...let see GL ....

Meanwhile talking heads in Greece keep debating and we WONT get the vote before the roll ... so Asian session will have the upper hand ...a few minutes left...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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