The Really Useless Thread

Pretty much.

H4 Buy signal
-> Buy signals on every TF -> the price has leaved equilibrium on all TF
-> last time weekend gap screwed this setup, but price still couldn't fall further, rather recovered
-> now, it's Monday, technically 1.1 should be defended again, if not, than something nasty going on (again)
Well, time will tell.

Nobody underrate retail. As I said, small retail will mostly grab the noise and pickup the crumbs from the major moves and that's a pretty valid trading option. Sure you can make a very decent living on it. How many succeed?, well very few, this business is brutal ....

However, retail as indicator for direction? well no not really ... most wont/can't/ and don't have to see beyond the next 1 or 2 bars in the current session ... micro trading is pretty much useless for swinging...

sisse

Nice!

Hello Sir,

Could You answer (or somebody else) whom we understand here as retailers ? Privite person with account 1K euro ? 10K EUR ? or till 100 000 EUR ???
And also how brokers understand retailers ?
I'm really curious

Thanks in advance!

Nothing to say. I had to scratch fresh entries out on the 60/55 breach after it didn't even reach my first intraday target at 93. Misread dollar strength today and it's been another very volatile day.

Indeed ... for those interested in the details of the drama "Greece talks: Sorry, but there is no way you are leaving this room" in the FT and "Tsipras Moves From Predator to Prey at Euro 'Torture' Summit" in Bloomberg pretty much summarize the last hours of the drama in detail ....

... In any case, simple day in the Euro with Greek panic slowly fading away (we still need Wednesday confirmation to pass the noise) and we are back to square one of the wide range as expected ... Tracking 1.099x for the roll as reference with same levels, same trades, same all...

sisse

I replied to you by the way in PM if you haven't noticed

For what it is worth, in my prior career I attended many mediations, most were for not so much money, but some were decent sized for individuals or corporations. And yes, a few times the mediator has done the 'you are not leaving until this is resolved' schtick, which sometimes works, sometimes doesn't. My personal opinion is that Tsipras and his crew failed to account for many of the variables in the negotiation which is why it has turned out so badly for them so far it appears. I have seen nothing to indicate it will get any better for them.

The reason I post is to address the concern about whether Greece/Tsipras will put through the reforms by the Wednesday deadline, and then, if so, how the new bailout talks will go. The main headline reason for the EUR/USD pair to go up before Yellen speaks Wednesday seems to be that Greece shows they are trustworthy and passes what they have to pass. If they don't, this seems the likely headline to catapult the pair down. I am short the pair, but cannot see Tsipras failing to get the bills passed. He was in Brussels getting hammered, obviously, and has to know that he does not want to go back empty handed. Tsipras would only have given in to so much because he felt he had no other choice; i.e. the other options were worse to him. As such, he will most certainly convince the lawmakers to pass the bills, or Tsipras will resign. So I see at least a small jump up coming when the bills are passed, which is my expected outcome. (I hope my pending profit targets are hit first).

Then, the new bailout talks are expected to also go very negatively for the Greeks. Again, in a negotiation, when you have beaten someone down, it takes less to get more. So, another bad deal for Greece looks to be in the cards, or Grexit, which after transferring those public assets will be even worse for them. I think the market realizing this will push the pair down again; or Yellen, who has never been dollar bullish could do so with her 'later this year' comments, but I won't hold my breath for her.

Greece is a dead man walking. [period].

The economic cost and financial requirements for only the current bank closure alone are beyond control already ...let alone the real structural economic problems. They shoot themselves in the foot one more time with the last drama.... but Greece economic debacle is not news [and sadly not important at all for MArkets] outside of the short term risk mode / panic spreading across Europe ....

We are pretty much turning this page [on the short term risk] with the new deal.... so Greece can slowly keep dragging itself to the economic graveyard...

------- ------ ------ ------- ------ ------ ------- ------ ------ ------- ------ ------

In any case, a pretty dull session in the Euro as expected until Wednesday but its good to see that markets are starting to see beyond the drama across the board. Particularly important is BOE opening RMT (rates mode) in the UK. All eyes on Gold that it will get hammered with hikes around the corner ....

Expecting a decent reaction in US equities with NY via the first clear signal that hikes are coming despite the dovish low interest junky addicts. Also expecting equites in the US to shift correlation with the dollar and start forming a solid floor in the upcoming sessions...

sisse

This means weakening the dollar before the rate hikes, correct?

I bet it means exactly the opposite (dollar with overall bullish tendency if we get "the first clear signal that hikes are coming" = start of RMT?? finally ) plus weakening of US equities = weakening = "forming a solid floor in the upcoming sessions".

Sisse: quick Q: whats your account of retail sales? disappointing but still not changing anything in the generall macro picture, right?

Thank you

A not insignificant drop in retail sales plus the negative revision from the last print. Retail sales/consumer spending mentioned in the FOMC minutes among concerns from probably dovish members so this news will probably shake up sentiment and pricing in rates.

We got a deep test of the very extremes of the range on the Euro 1.098 (which I wasn't expecting.) Expected shallower but I expect those gappy weekly candles distorted some of the TA I was using. It's still a perfectly normall move and with this recent news there's no reason not to btfd- I just want this Greece BS cleared quickly.

About that, I never realised the extent of Greek financial turmoil throughout their history. I found this really funny and informative article:



http://thereformedbroker.com/2015/06/28 ... se-your-s/


Quote:
Some stuff you should know about Greece before you lose your s***

Posted June 28, 2015 by Joshua M Brown

Welcome to year five (or year 2600, depending on your chosen starting point) of the Greek financial crisis.

Some things worth keeping in mind:

1. Greece invented finance. It was the starting point of currency and movable wealth. It was the birthplace of banking, personal loans, securitized lending, real estate loans, credit-based trade, endowment investing, capital levies, interest rate laws, foreign exchange, annuities and many other related innovations that helped to give birth to the modern world.

2. If Ancient Greece invented finance, it also was the inventor of the financial crisis. The first one in recorded history, during the 6th century BC, was so bad that they actually resorted to bringing in an academic a poet, no less to clean it up. It seems that the Greeks had engaged in a practice, en masse, in which they pledged themselves as slaves against the debts they were racking up in support of their farms. it had gotten to the point that a huge chunk of the population ended up enslaved, either in-country or shipped off abroad. The wiseman Solon was brought in to power in Attica and he began canceling debts, freeing his fellow citizens from slavery and even redeeming some slaves who had been sold abroad. He did this by devaluing the drachma by one-quarter something his counterparts in modern Greece are currently unable to do.
delos

(the first ATM)

3. Greece has never been a good credit risk. With the exception of the Athenian city-state, whose owl coins backed by the local silver mine maintained their integrity for 600 years, virtually all other Greek governments were seen as constant default risks. Greek states never lent money directly to each other. The banks of the day, which were the temples, knew better than to lend to Greek states directly as well. Instead, loans were made to wealthy individuals and private citizens of means on behalf of their cities. The Ancient Greeks understood that personal accountability would be a better guarantor that debts would be paid as opposed to, say, civic pride.

4. Demosthenes, in the 4th century BC, said Of all kinds of capital, the most productive in business is confidence and if you do not know that you do not know anything. No one had confidence that Greek governments would make good on their loans, which is why productive capital demanded personal responsibility for loans or even the pledging of bizarre forms of collateral. There was that time when the city of Cyme pledged its public colonnades when Cyme defaulted, its citizens were forbidden to stand under them to get out of the sun or the rain. There was one notable time that the temples made an exception. The Shrine at Delphi and its Temple of Delos was the JP Morgan of the ancient Greek world. In the 4th century BC it made a loan to 13 Greek city-states and ended up taking an 80% haircut when the majority of them never paid back the funds.

5. Bringing things up to the modern era, we look at the period from Greeces independence in the 1830s to today. In this roughly 200-year period, Greece has been in default to its creditors during roughly 90 of these years, or half the time. To a person with any historical awareness, being told that Greece is on the verge of a default is like hearing Dean Martin is on the verge of a martini. The government of modern Greece has defaulted five times in 1826, 1843, 1860, 1894 and 1932. It defaulted on the original loan arranged by creditors on the London Stock Exchange to win its independence on the battlefield in 1825. So many middle men skimmed so much money, and there were so many internecine squabbles among the Greek revolutionaries, that no one even knew where the money went or who was responsible for it. It wasnt until 1878 that Greece made good half a century later and by then the approximately 1.7 million pound loan, with accrued interest, had ballooned to 10 million pounds!

6. There was another loan made in 1832 by the French, British and Russians. This was defaulted on 11 years later, effectively freezing Greece out of the international credit markets for decades. In the late 1800s, all was forgiven again and the loans from foreigners once again came pouring in, in search of a high rate of interest. Once again, the Greeks ended up under an unsustainable debt burden and the government suspended all payments on external debt in 1893. Hilariously, they created the International Committee for Greek Debt Management to appease their foreign creditors, which was meant to monitor the economy and tax collection. If that doesnt sound familiar, raise your hand and Ill come whack you over the head with a croquet mallet.

7. Greece defaulted again in 1932 (who could blame them, given the world economy) and remained in default for thirty years until the mid-1960s.

8. The truth is, Greece never belonged in the Europeans single-currency experiment to begin with but they were too small and inconsequential to say no to. The statistics they submitted were largely fudged and Northern Europe willfully overlooked the countrys well-known culture of black market economics and rampant tax evasion. It was the late 1990s optimism was the pervasive sentiment around the globe, ushered in by the hedonist-in-chief in the White House. The Euro Zone even looked the other way when Goldman Sachs enabled the interest-rate swaps and so forth that cooked Greeces books to the point where they were qualified for inclusion. F*** it, let em in, said a cigarette-smoking Parisian bureaucrat sometime between his first and second lunch break that day.

9. There are no countries in the modern world that have defaulted on their loans more often than Greece, save for Honduras and Ecuador. Look it up. The fact that history is repeating for the umpteenth time should not cause you to lose your s***. Not that this is going to be a good thing. Its going to hurt some people. But probably not hurt the world. Greeces creditors played for time since the latest crisis began five years ago and used that time to minimize the impact of what they all probably expected from day one. When Mario Draghi gave his famous whatever it takes speech, he meant whatever it takes to protect the European Union not whatever it takes to keep Greece in it. Mark Dow makes this case that a Grexit will be the best thing for both Greece and for the EU in his new post, Greece: Its Time and Its Going to Be Okay. Maybe hes right. Read it and cool off.

Bottom line Greece has given the world many beautiful and important things and its cultural heritage is among high points in the history of humanity. But finance just isnt its strong suit. Fortunately for the world, weve had time to prepare and the Greek economy is about the size of the economy of Atlanta, Georgia. Contagion is a real risk, but probably not the risk it was when this all began. More to the point, contagion is always a risk, not just when the newspapers begin talking about it.

And besides, its not like nobody saw this coming, given the history.

...see chester123 post ...

Missed in all fronts. Just noted for now, we'll need a series of disappointing numbers to affect the outlook.... Europe also missed expectations in the morning (more expected given Greece jitters) so pretty much a flat round of reports day in the euro ...

sisse

Nice find! Thanks for sharing. Interesting reading material. I agree with the last sentence.

As expected chop continues in the Euro but it wont last much long both technically (compression range about to give up) and fundamentally (FED,ECB, key inflation combo) will be enough to shake the board.

Expecting a fast European session before Greece comes back to the table with the Greek parliament vote and then for a bunch of tweeter trading from the Eurogroup. If everything goes as expected we will get a deal confirmation and extension for a 3 years new loan deal.... technicalities will follow in the coming days but wont be important for trading.

---> There is a LOT of noise about a potential massive debt relief package for Greece once this new deal & reforms are approved and after banks reopens. Apparently the main issue is that some EZ governments are not that happy to do it until the current Greek government is gone .... Worth mentioning this as if confirmed later, it will have a very positive impact in the Euro on the long term outlook ...

For now, Not much to do here, same levels, same trades, same all...

sisse

Sisse, a little more clarity please: Are you saying "a very positive impact in the Euro" zone as a whole for the group of countries that make up the EZ; or, are you referring to the "EURO" currency? One would think that the printing of more currency and in effect lowering interest rates would cause the face value of the currency to decline against other currencies.

its called 'mofu' for a reason..

"it will have a very positive impact in the Euro on the long term outlook" ...

Euro means Euro currency EURUSD. (EZ means EuroZone). The positive impact will be in both the EURO and EZ.


"it will have a very positive impact in the Euro on the long term outlook" ...

I have mentioned many many times in these boards:

---> Short Term = Days to Weeks (current outlook is sell)
---> Mid Term = Weeks to Months (current outlook is strong sell)
---> Long Term = Quarterly and beyond (current outlook is strong sell)

ECB QE and low interest rates are already in play since early this year. What you are mentioning (and I agree) is the present not the long term....

"A massive debt relief package for Greece" ...

Will have a positive impact in both the EZ and the Euro long term outlook meaning in Very rough terms: long-term outlook will move from strong sell to sell and we WONT see euro trading below 0.88xx probably for the rest of our trading days...

sisse

... Will have a positive impact in both the EZ and the Euro long term outlook meaning in Very rough terms: long-term outlook will move from strong sell to sell and we WONT see euro trading below 0.88xx probably for the rest of our trading days... sisse[/quote]


Thank you for the response sir. It clears up any confusion on my part.