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Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

  • #341
  • Jul 12, 2015 6:55pm Jul 12, 2015 6:55pm
"I can see the higher edge within a single candlestick and the future candlestick. I can see where the higher probabilities lies within a single candlestick and the future candlestick."

"95% of the time price will close above or below the open." Amateurs will never see the edge in this quote, unless a professional point it out where the edge lies within this quote."


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpydaily.png Size: 22 KB
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #342
  • Jul 12, 2015 7:09pm Jul 12, 2015 7:09pm
"I can see the higher edge within a single candlestick and the future candlestick. I can see where the higher probabilities lies within a single candlestick and the future candlestick."

"95% of the time price will close above or below the open." Amateurs will never see the edge in this quote, unless a professional point it out where the edge lies within this quote."

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: tooslow1.png Size: 23 KB


Histogram shows high minus open and low - open. This is the "edge".
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #343
  • Jul 12, 2015 10:50pm Jul 12, 2015 10:50pm
Can we channel all of this negative effort into a discussion about trailing stop strategies that would work best for these types of trades?

  • #344
  • Jul 13, 2015 12:03am Jul 13, 2015 12:03am
Quoting forexdave1
Can we channel all of this negative effort into a discussion about trailing stop strategies that would work best for these types of trades?
+1
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #345
  • Jul 13, 2015 12:43am Jul 13, 2015 12:43am
Quoting mvp77
{quote} This post says it all about you !
  • #346
  • Jul 13, 2015 2:10am Jul 13, 2015 2:10am
Please. Take what you can from the thread and if you cant see anything, move on and stop polluting the thread with your whining. Nobody has to prove anything.
  • #347
  • Jul 13, 2015 4:39am Jul 13, 2015 4:39am
Quoting TooSlow
"I can see the higher edge within a single candlestick and the future candlestick. I can see where the higher probabilities lies within a single candlestick and the future candlestick." "95% of the time price will close above or below the open." Amateurs will never see the edge in this quote, unless a professional point it out where the edge lies within this quote." {image} Histogram shows high minus open and low - open. This is the "edge".
No matter how much history someone uses, no matter how many charts, timeframes and whatnot, all action will be taken within a candle, for the minute you enter the market, you enter within a candle. Heck, we are all still trading within a candle - that being the open of the begining of existance of 'insert currency here' market.

Candle statistics will show you the expansion/contraction of price that 'occured' within the previous samples, i.e. the hi- open - low. It shows the consistency the market has in moving within a given 'time', this consistency expanding and contracting (high/low vol.). But it does not show you how it reached them levels.

Lets say (for arguments sake) high-open-low 95% of movement occured within +/-2sigma. Well, when it reached for example +1sd, how did price MOVE from there?
Did it go +2sd first or back to open first?
Did it go to -1sd first and then back to +2sd?

You dont know, or do you?

Candle statistics and movement statistics are similar but different in that they depict the path price takes within a given sample, and these 'paths' evolve over time.

Imagine you live on an island. This island has 10.000 people living on it, and there are ONLY 5 supermarkets...nothing more and nothing less.
Now, nobody gets to leave (or enter) this island.

If you have 5 supermarkets, all competing agaisnt each other for the 'business' of these 10.000 customers...who wins and who loses?
Or more importantly, at what point do you know which shop is outpacing the others?
And even more importantly, how do you know that particular shop will continue to outpace the other 4 shops?

10.000 customers - 5 shops.

Ever wonder what a trend really is?
  • #348
  • Jul 13, 2015 6:28am Jul 13, 2015 6:28am
Quoting Pipalicious
{quote} No matter how much history someone uses, no matter how many charts, timeframes and whatnot, all action will be taken within a candle, for the minute you enter the market, you enter within a candle. Heck, we are all still trading within a candle - that being the open of the begining of existance of 'insert currency here' market. Candle statistics will show you the expansion/contraction of price that 'occured' within the previous samples, i.e. the hi- open - low. It shows the consistency the market has in moving within a given 'time', this...
Hi Pipalicious

I am very sorry,but I still don't understand

A picture is worth a thousand words，if you can show us with chart or pic?

Sorry for my English.

thx a lot.
  • #349
  • Jul 13, 2015 8:01am Jul 13, 2015 8:01am
Quoting blueface
{quote} Hi Pipalicious I am very sorry,but I still don't understand A picture is worth a thousand words，if you can show us with chart or pic? Sorry for my English. thx a lot.
Blueface, I understand your frustration. I've been there too in other forums and threads. But since you are acting mature about it and not acting like a thug (calling people "cancer" ) then I'll drop you a hint.

It's all about movement from a static reference point. In the case of a single candle, the reference point is the open. You don't really need much more than that. Though as skfx pointed out you can also refer to important levels in the past, such as session opens, highs, lows and closes.

You then need to do some analysis to determine the probability of price moving a certain distance from your reference point. This will vary by instrument and time of day. You can also analyse in how many bars price moves this distance both sides of the open, rather than just one. And in how many bars price doesn't move this distance at all.

Once you've got all that, you can form a trading plan and give it a go!

Needless to say, there's no holy grail here and you still have the problem of where to enter, where to take profit and where to cut losses, just like in any trading system. But you might find that it suits your personal trading style and gives you an edge

Hope this helps a bit. Good luck.
You reap what you sow.
  • #350
  • Jul 13, 2015 8:40am Jul 13, 2015 8:40am
Quoting Pipalicious
{quote} No matter how much history someone uses, no matter how many charts, timeframes and whatnot, all action will be taken within a candle, for the minute you enter the market, you enter within a candle. ....
Candles are conceptual in nature. Candles are only a representation of what price did over a given time span. What is relevant to a trader is what happens to price after an entry - no more, no less. Staying on topic: the entry needs to occur near or at the open price, be it daily, weekly, hourly, ... to capture the edge,

The market would not exist if we all agreed, all of the time.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdh1.png Size: 22 KB


The chart shows that an entry near the open would have resulted in profit twice: Once long, and once short. It is up to the trader to determine which direction at the time will yield profit rather than loss.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #351
  • Jul 13, 2015 8:50am Jul 13, 2015 8:50am
Quoting NorthTrader
{quote} Blueface, I understand your frustration. I've been there too in other forums and threads. But since you are acting mature about it and not acting like a thug (calling people "cancer" ) then I'll drop you a hint. It's all about movement from a static reference point. In the case of a single candle, the reference point is the open. You don't really need much more than that. Though as skfx pointed out you can also refer to important levels in the past, such as session opens, highs, lows and closes. You then need to do some analysis to...
Hi North

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...04#post8303804

https://www.mataf.net/en/tools/02-01-volatility

Thank you very much for your reply, I found some of the tools

As a matter of fact, I don't trade with the method of this thread,because I don't have a way to do it.

thx a lot.
  • #352
  • Jul 13, 2015 3:02pm Jul 13, 2015 3:02pm
Quoting Neio
Hmmm... I think I have posted everything I wanted to share so far. I decided to remove my demo explorer but just for your info it is still doing just fine... {image} I think I may just abandon it now anyway as it serves no real purpose other than for testing out ideas.
Neio, are you still at 200% return?
  • #353
  • Jul 13, 2015 8:01pm Jul 13, 2015 8:01pm
Quoting blueface
https://www.mataf.net/en/tools/02-01-volatility
Hey blueface, thanks very much for the link. That's very useful! Give and you shall receive, eh? I love these forums

However, knowledge of the ATR is only the start. Digging deeper into the stats will give you a deeper edge. It takes time and effort to analyse the bars, whichever way you choose (programmatically, Excel, visually), and after all that you still might not find something that fits your personal style. That's a risk we all have to take. And it's not as simple as someone else doing all the work and sharing it because how do you know you can trust them? What if they made a mistake without realising it? Also, doing it yourself gives you ownership of the system, which is a powerful thing. You'll be much more confident and proud of the system if you figure it out by yourself. It's hard work, yes, but we have to work hard in any job to get paid well

Just my 2 cents. Thanks and good luck
You reap what you sow.
  • #354
  • Jul 13, 2015 8:52pm Jul 13, 2015 8:52pm
Quoting NorthTrader
{quote} Hey blueface, thanks very much for the link. That's very useful! Give and you shall receive, eh? I love these forums However, knowledge of the ATR is only the start. Digging deeper into the stats will give you a deeper edge. It takes time and effort to analyse the bars, whichever way you choose (programmatically, Excel, visually), and after all that you still might not find something that fits your personal style. That's a risk we all have to take. And it's not as simple as someone else doing all the work and sharing it because how do...
Hi friend

thx and good luck to you too.

Best Regards.
  • #355
  • Jul 14, 2015 8:59am Jul 14, 2015 8:59am
"95% of the time price will close above or below the open." Amateurs will never see the edge in this quote, unless a professional point it out where the edge lies within this quote."

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdh1.png Size: 52 KB


The chart shows the distance price is from each H1 open.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #356
  • Jul 14, 2015 9:44am Jul 14, 2015 9:44am
"95% of the time price will close above or below the open." Amateurs will never see the edge in this quote, unless a professional point it out where the edge lies within this quote."

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: tooslow1.png Size: 35 KB


It does not take sharp eyes to see the sun and the moon, nor does it take sharp ears to hear the thunderclap. Wisdom is not obvious. You must see the subtle and notice the hidden to be victorious.
Sun Tzu, The Art of War
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #357
  • Jul 15, 2015 2:32pm Jul 15, 2015 2:32pm
Quoting TooSlow
"95% of the time price will close above or below the open." Amateurs will never see the edge in this quote, unless a professional point it out where the edge lies within this quote." {image} It does not take sharp eyes to see the sun and the moon, nor does it take sharp ears to hear the thunderclap. Wisdom is not obvious. You must see the subtle and notice the hidden to be victorious. Sun Tzu, The Art of War
I am understanding the edge but am having a hard time understanding the open price levels and how to incorporate the open/closed levels into my trades.
  • #358
  • Jul 15, 2015 4:54pm Jul 15, 2015 4:54pm
Quoting forexdave1
{quote} I am understanding the edge but am having a hard time understanding the open price levels and how to incorporate the open/closed levels into my trades.
When price is above an open, it is up. Conversely, when price is below an open, it is down. You did not elaborate on your trades or method so there isn't much to go on. It is a good idea not to short when price is up and not to buy when price is down. Naturally, most traders look for reversals but are impatient and trigger happy thus buying when they should be selling and vice-versa.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: tooslow1.png Size: 53 KB


The chart has open lines for each hourly open. Look at the bars above 1.2900. Waiting to sell below an H1 open,was what a trader would wait for to catch the reversal. This requires discipline, patience and keeping your finger off of the mouse button. When price failed to make a higher high AND fell below the open (some would say previous close), there was a "perfect storm" chance to sell. Perhaps you can incorporate this into your trade.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #359
  • Jul 15, 2015 5:03pm Jul 15, 2015 5:03pm
Naturally, it would be easy to accuse me of cherry picking the USDCAD pair because of the red news today. GBP did not have any news and we can apply the same method.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: tooslow1.png Size: 51 KB


Look at the bars above 1.5650. A sell below the H1 open of the bar immediately following the bar making the high would have resulted in profit. In summary, a bar makes a high and closes. Next bar fails to make a higher high and reverses. Sell when price drops below the open price of the current bar.

Look at the bars below 1.5600. A buy above the H1 open of the bar immediately following the bar making the low would have resulted in profit. In summary, a bar makes a low and closes. Next bar fails to make a lower low and reverses. Buy when price rises above the open price of the current bar.

Please understand none of this is original or new and this is presented for EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. You may find your results may differ. Please check with an accredited financial specialist before using real money. FOREX trading can be risky. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED!
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #360
  • Jul 16, 2015 2:14pm Jul 16, 2015 2:14pm
Quoting TooSlow
Naturally, it would be easy to accuse me of cherry picking the USDCAD pair because of the red news today. GBP did not have any news and we can apply the same method. {image} Look at the bars above 1.5650. A sell below the H1 open of the bar immediately following the bar making the high would have resulted in profit. In summary, a bar makes a high and closes. Next bar fails to make a higher high and reverses. Sell when price drops below the open price of the current bar. Look at the bars below 1.5600. A buy above the H1 open of the bar immediately...
Tooslow, is there anything you would be willing to share regarding the open/closed levels as displayed on your indicator?Thx
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