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Oil and Natural Gas

  • #1,581
  • Jul 8, 2015 12:35pm Jul 8, 2015 12:35pm
Quoting PipJet
Seems like long Oil ( WTI or Brent ) is no option this summer or way to risky. I stick on Nat. Gas. 2.70 should hold.
and it didn't.
  • #1,582
  • Jul 9, 2015 1:47am Jul 9, 2015 1:47am
nat gas is going to $2.00. Jan 2016 sell futures contract placed.

Ill be back in january 2016 to re-asses global climate & electricity/energy market

-yeniful
(i only trade nat gas and the yen)
  • #1,583
  • Jul 9, 2015 6:37am Jul 9, 2015 6:37am
Guys,
If I were you, I would be considering a downtrend in oil with increasing skepticism.
Cheers,
k
  • #1,584
  • Jul 9, 2015 6:42am Jul 9, 2015 6:42am
Quoting kprsa
Guys, If I were you, I would be considering a downtrend in oil with increasing skepticism. Cheers, k
Market might have reached a bottom of the trend or it might be releasing some load to continue down i don't know but i think a short at 53.5$ will be a good try
  • #1,585
  • Jul 9, 2015 6:45am Jul 9, 2015 6:45am
Quoting kprsa
Guys, If I were you, I would be considering a downtrend in oil with increasing skepticism. Cheers, k
Reasons people. Actual, credible reasons why. Otherwise it is just blabbing.

This isn't old women sitting around watching "soap operas".

  • #1,586
  • Jul 9, 2015 6:47am Jul 9, 2015 6:47am
Quoting atom3
{quote} Market might have reached a bottom of the trend or it might be releasing some load to continue down i don't know but i think a short at 53.5$ will be a good try
According to the pattern I am trying to follow, there will be a steep uptrend with the increasing flattening over the next days/week (I will exit my longs when the price curve flattens). I wouldn't be attempting selling in the next days.
Green pips,
k
  • #1,587
  • Jul 9, 2015 10:08am Jul 9, 2015 10:08am
Quoting yeniful
nat gas is going to $2.00. Jan 2016 sell futures contract placed. Ill be back in january 2016 to re-asses global climate & electricity/energy market -yeniful (i only trade nat gas and the yen)
Can you explain why? I see Nat gas at 3$ for Januar16. Europe much higher demand then supply. ( my 2cents)

WTI: Long term expections it will settle on 75$ Dec-15.
Short term. Man... i dont know I am still not ready to buy it. With that Euro and USD slapping that is a dangerous game now. Of course we all play it but i am not ready to long WTI.
  • #1,588
  • Jul 9, 2015 11:13pm Jul 9, 2015 11:13pm
suspicious price action on the hourly tf. usually i would regard this as a potential M reversal pattern, aiming down. in reality, it is a balance point and the price can go either way from here... i am taking my profits and would watch from the sidelines now.

whoever drives the price sure has a talent for drama...

green pips all,
k
  • #1,589
  • Jul 10, 2015 8:13am Jul 10, 2015 8:13am
Quoting kprsa
suspicious price action on the hourly tf. usually i would regard this as a potential M reversal pattern, aiming down. in reality, it is a balance point and the price can go either way from here... i am taking my profits and would watch from the sidelines now. whoever drives the price sure has a talent for drama... green pips all, k

True. F*ck summer in Commodites

Got this in my terminal and i think i am not the only one with the same targets:

Quote
Commerzbank announces their brent crude average price forecasts at
USD 61.00/bbl in 2015 and USD 73.00/bbl in 2016 and their WTI crude
average price forecast at USD 56/bbl in 2015 and USD 70/bbl in 2016
  • #1,590
  • Jul 10, 2015 8:52am Jul 10, 2015 8:52am
Quoting PipJet
{quote} True. F*ck summer in Commodites Got this in my terminal and i think i am not the only one with the same targets: {quote}

Good to know, thanks!

BTW, according to my crazy strategy it is just now a good time to sell corn. Ridiculous RR, as I expect it to drop all the way down to 3.6-3.7.

Green pips,
k
  • #1,591
  • Jul 10, 2015 10:12am Jul 10, 2015 10:12am
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  • #1,592
  • Jul 10, 2015 10:38am Jul 10, 2015 10:38am
Quoting kprsa
{quote} BTW, according to my crazy strategy it is just now a good time to sell corn.
  • #1,593
  • Jul 10, 2015 10:48am Jul 10, 2015 10:48am
Quoting kprsa
{quote}
what instrument do you use? never trade it but JJG several times, anything on TSX Toronto? thanks
  • #1,594
  • Jul 10, 2015 11:25am Jul 10, 2015 11:25am
Quoting kprsa
{quote}
sl-ed by the up move. not foreseen...
well, such is life.
@medvic, i trade corn futures via a retail forex broker.
cheers,
k
  • #1,595
  • Jul 12, 2015 6:07pm Jul 12, 2015 6:07pm
Test buys on wti. If it is to go up, this, or the Monday's London open could be the low of the week.
  • #1,596
  • Jul 12, 2015 6:44pm Jul 12, 2015 6:44pm
Kprsa , you have been pro rebound for a week now.. could you explain why ? I feel lower is on the cards...after one more push past the 50.30 lower resistance.
  • #1,597
  • Jul 12, 2015 7:12pm Jul 12, 2015 7:12pm
Quoting kprsa
Test buys on wti. If it is to go up, this, or the Monday's London open could be the low of the week.
A reason why? Otherwise it could be the high of the week. Or somewhere in between. Or .... or ....
  • #1,598
  • Jul 12, 2015 7:23pm Jul 12, 2015 7:23pm
Quoting nutts
Kprsa , you have been pro rebound for a week now.. could you explain why ? I feel lower is on the cards...after one more push past the 50.30 lower resistance.
Hi, I actually did explain. See the post 1573 for my method. And you are likely correct. It is possible that there would be another leg downward. If I start losing money on my buys, I will start selling (i. e. if we break under the trendline on 1h tf). However, if I am right, I earn a lot more than what I can lose if I am wrong. That's all.
Cheers,
k
  • #1,599
  • Jul 12, 2015 7:27pm Jul 12, 2015 7:27pm
Thank you for answering
  • #1,600
  • Jul 13, 2015 1:34am Jul 13, 2015 1:34am
I am a firm believer in time-repeat patterns, kprsa, however here is some fundamental affect....

The talks with Iran have been reported, in the last hour, to be nearing an agreement. The result will be the removal of sanctions in return for <sarcasm> some platitudes </sarcasm> about not pursuing the wrong kind of goals with the Iranian nuclear program.

So..... confirmation of this news will cause a sharp drop in WTI pricing, followed by a rebound when the market discovers that the sanctions remain until the end of the month, or something.....
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
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