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  • #136,081
  • Jul 10, 2015 10:51am Jul 10, 2015 10:51am
Quoting hathor
{quote} Hi Build11! Sadly I have no H8 TF, do you know any online chart, which is user-friendly and has H8?
if you use mt4 there is a period converter indi for free you could use for any tf you wish.
follow the flow
  • #136,082
  • Jul 10, 2015 11:43am Jul 10, 2015 11:43am
Quoting hathor
{quote} Hi Build11! Sadly I have no H8 TF, do you know any online chart, which is user-friendly and has H8?
tradingview has
  • #136,083
  • Jul 10, 2015 12:00pm Jul 10, 2015 12:00pm
Quoting sisse
... Not much to see across the board. Tracking 1.110x/2x in the euro after Europe goes home and for the roll. sisse
Surprise surprise 1.112x test with London going home and that was it for sisse this week... Still sitting tight for the major swings until the wide range is resolved so same levels, same trades, same all....

GL all holding positions over the weekend ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,084
  • Jul 11, 2015 1:42pm Jul 11, 2015 1:42pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Surprise surprise 1.112x test with London going home and that was it for sisse this week... Still sitting tight for the major swings until the wide range is resolved so same levels, same trades, same all.... GL all holding positions over the weekend ... sisse
looks like a bit of talk here and there regarding the Greek situation.

following it closely .
  • #136,085
  • Jul 11, 2015 11:10pm Jul 11, 2015 11:10pm
Mao is spinning around in his grave like crazy - maybe he need to chillax & buy some stock

http://www.vox.com/2015/7/11/8933341...der-to-save-it

" Since the start of July, the Chinese government — and private parties acting with government encouragement — took a number of dramatic steps to reverse the stock market's decline:

  1. The central bank has provided more cash to the China Securities Finance Corp, a state-run company that lends people money so they can buy stocks.
  2. Initial public offerings were suspended, so that newly issued shares wouldn't compete for capital with those already on the market.
  3. About half of the companies listed on China's two major exchanges suspended trading altogether.
  4. Companies' major shareholders — those with more than 5 percent of a company's shares, as well as executives and board members — were banned from selling shares for six months.
  5. China's securities regulator ordered companies to either buy their own shares or encourage their executives or employees to do the same "

"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136,086
  • Jul 11, 2015 11:29pm Jul 11, 2015 11:29pm
Trade china stock market moves with FXI or ASHR, or maybe individual names like BABA, BIDU, YOKU, DANG, etc

A long calendar with a 1-month spread is defined risk, in the case below, a 10-lot risks $165 to make $1,200 max, a bet FXI will be trading near its prior highs in August...

I like picking the big round numbers for long-dated calendar spread expiries - it's always a crap shoot, but heavily traded names have a way of pinning those on the monthly opex days...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-07-11_fxi2.png Size: 53 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136,087
  • Jul 12, 2015 6:37am Jul 12, 2015 6:37am
Quoting sisse
The last bit of patience and sympathy from the EZ was flushed away when they and how they called the Referendum. 15 of the 18 countries are now on a very hard line with Greece [check] (well when you play, insult and annoy the ego of old "empires" ...things get messy....).
Quote
All pointing that pretty much is unanimous decision to expel/freeze Greece [check]from the EZ if they mess around this weekend. All are extremely angry (and this time openly angry )[check] ....
Quote
and wont even stay for a extended meeting on sunday if they smell drama [in play....EZ leaders meeting was already cancelled]

Quote
...if Greece complain they had enough from the EZ, we officially can confirm the other way around is even more true [check].

Quote
Grexit/Greece freeze temporary from the EZ [in play 60/40 odds as today].... what is clear is that this time we will get, in the worst case scenario, at least a further kicking the can for 3 years [in play but odds going down by the minute ]....

Third weekend in a row tracking markets. Drama reaching boiling point after a very sour meeting on Saturday.

As widely expected, Tsipras paying a very heavy toll on the amateurish management of the crisis (especially the last 2 weeks) and almost every single member sick of the drama and more than happy to put Greece in the freezer from the EZ for a few years (or forever in some cases). Germany and France playing "good cop / bad cop" but the general feeling is that this is the end of the road for Greece.

---> The best case scenario for Greece will imply a very humiliating deal (transferring assets, giving management of repayments to a third party managers, etc etc)to extend life support for 3 years. Any other outcome is getting temporary kicked out or a full an painful "Grexit".

Greece has never been so close to get expelled from the EZ but the main problem for markets (and for their own people) is risk and panic short term on a messy default.

---> If no deal and the ECB raise artificial support for Greek banks, the fall out will be chaotic and painful and it will trigger a full blown risk wave play across the board.

---> For now, Finance Ministers meeting in the afternoon in Brussels for what it seam a real final meeting to decide the Greek faith. Whatever the case, "You Reap What You Sow" and Greece has sown corruption, inefficiency, criminal fiscal mismanagement and since the last government a complete distrust and mockery of the the other 18 EZ countries ...NOW is time to face its consequences .....

 

  1. Market wise, panic leg in play in no deal and Grexit. Next week is deadline for private holders default (small repayment) and the official default to the ECB comes the week of the 21st (with a large payment).
  2. Panic and potential chaos to the general public (including violence) could come in around 2 weeks (according to experts estimations) when Banks will completely run out of cash. Big fall out come later when bureaucracy (which is the largest employer in Greece) will have to pay salaries and pensions in heavily devaluated new drachmas or even worst in worthless IOUs...
  3. A last minute deal kicking the can for 3 years without expelling Greece will leave us in the relief wave before the doldrums of the peak of the summer weeks put markets in slow motion mode till the crazy September ...


Tracking closely the end of the drama the rest of the day ...

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,088
  • Jul 12, 2015 6:44am Jul 12, 2015 6:44am
Quoting sisse
{quote} {quote} {quote} {quote} {quote} Third weekend in a row tracking markets. Drama reaching boiling point after a very sour meeting on Saturday. As widely expected, Tsipras paying a very heavy toll on the amateurish management of the crisis (especially the last 2 weeks) and almost every single member sick of the drama and more than happy to put Greece in the freezer from the EZ for a few years (or forever in some cases). Germany and France playing "good cop / bad cop" but the general feeling is that this is the end of the road for Greece. --->...
indeed. just hours ahead, but from what I gather the odds are split right now.. Friday it seemed like a done deal.
  • #136,089
  • Jul 12, 2015 6:54am Jul 12, 2015 6:54am
Quoting darimik
{quote} indeed. just hours ahead, but from what I gather the odds are split right now.. Friday it seemed like a done deal.
Well the Greek Government pretty much showed the middle finger to Germany (and some others) with the referendum. Now Germany is playing bad cop (as anybody else would do if you are the $$$ provider) to tight the nots as hard as possible and let France and Italy (second largest $$$ providers) play the peacemakers.

I think the main issues on discussion right now is tightening the screws as much as possible to have the control to either freeze Greece temporary from the EZ or kick them out permanently without having to go in another round of drama and meetings.

Basically, it's crunching time for Greece as I am pretty sure they WONT have even a VOICE in the next few years if they screw it this time....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,090
  • Jul 12, 2015 7:01am Jul 12, 2015 7:01am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Well the Greek Government pretty much showed the middle finger to Germany (and some others) with the referendum. Now Germany is playing bad cop (as anybody else would do if you are the $$$ provider) to tight the nots as hard as possible and let France and Italy (second largest $$$ providers) play the peacemakers. I think the main issues on discussion right now is tightening the screws as much as possible to have the control to either freeze Greece temporary from the EZ or kick them out permanently without having to go in another round of...
The meeting is canceled and the deal to bailout is unlikely today.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...-ministers-say
Intraday only.
  • #136,091
  • Jul 12, 2015 7:08am Jul 12, 2015 7:08am
The meeting cancelled was the meeting of the leaders of all 28-EU-countries. As far as I'm aware, the meeting of the EZ-leaders will go ahead.

@sisse: not sure about your Germany/France good cop/bad cop staged play. There seems to be a serious rift now between Merkel/Hollande. Tragic to see for a europhile like me, this whole mess has now the power to break the EU.
On the german parlamentary side of things: if Merkel drops Schaeuble, she'll lose her own majority in the Bundestag. If she doesn't, she might lose France and Italy.
Fail better.
  • #136,092
  • Jul 12, 2015 7:13am Jul 12, 2015 7:13am
Quoting LarryDarrell
The meeting cancelled was the meeting of the leaders of all 28-EU-countries. As far as I'm aware, the meeting of the EZ-leaders will go ahead. @sisse: not sure about your Germany/France good cop/bad cop staged play. There seems to be a serious rift now between Merkel/Hollande. Tragic to see for a europhile like me, this whole mess has now the power to break the EU. On the german parlamentary side of things: if Merkel drops Schaeuble, she'll lose her own majority in the Bundestag. If she doesn't, she might lose France and Italy.
Yes of course, the talks within euro leaders will continue but the summit is canceled and the Bailout package is not today. It is going to be another week of uncertainties. The drama continues. Got fed up with euro.

Most likely euro will open lower..
Intraday only.
  • #136,093
  • Jul 12, 2015 7:22am Jul 12, 2015 7:22am
Quoting navk
{quote} Yes of course, the talks within euro leaders will continue but the summit is canceled and the Bailout package is not today. It is going to be another week of uncertainties. The drama continues. Got fed up with euro. Most likely euro will open lower..
Parlaments have to vote it through anyways... lots of extra-steps. The only quick way would be a grexit, everything else will prolong the drama for some more.... years.
Fail better.
  • #136,094
  • Jul 12, 2015 7:24am Jul 12, 2015 7:24am
Quoting navk
{quote} The meeting is canceled and the deal to bailout is unlikely today. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...-ministers-say
Yeap the meeting cancelled was the EU leaders meeting not the EZ Finance Minister meeting.

Quoting LarryDarrell
@sisse: not sure about your Germany/France good cop/bad cop staged play. There seems to be a serious rift now between Merkel/Hollande. Tragic to see for a europhile like me, this whole mess has now the power to break the EU. On the german parlamentary side of things: if Merkel drops Schaeuble, she'll lose her own majority in the Bundestag. If she doesn't, she might lose France and Italy.
I am not sure about that mate. The Merkel/Hollande meeting went under the radar last week with all the noise. Sure they have their differences (well the French will always have differences with anybody even if they talk to themselves ... ) but I think its pretty much all part of the play.

Merkel (and some others) also need to sell a new deal/expel/grexit to their local constituencies and "please" hardliners like Schaeuble in Germany or the extreme right in Finland (now scarily 2nd major force) , etc.

The actual technicalities and conditions of the deal are already settle since before the unnecessary referendum. Even the Eurogroup draft statement for today is already been leaked !!! (what a circus !!!) before even the final meetings start. They are posturing and having to put a couple of different faces depending on the target group (national or European) .... at the end IMO the only thing left for the deal is how to have a clause to expel/freeze Greece on any failure to comply starting next week....

We'll see in a few

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,095
  • Jul 12, 2015 7:32am Jul 12, 2015 7:32am
Schaeble isn't a hardliner, he really isn't. He is an old politician who has pretty much seen it all. He is one Chancellor Kohl's old 'Europe first'-guard and believes in a rules-based Europe. The portrayal of that man as a nationalistic bonehead is past absurd. (I don't think you do that!)

waxing poetic....: If you can bear to hear the truth you’ve spoken Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools, Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken, And stoop and build ’em up with worn-out tools....
Fail better.
  • #136,096
  • Jul 12, 2015 7:45am Jul 12, 2015 7:45am
Quoting LarryDarrell
{quote} Parlaments have to vote it through anyways... lots of extra-steps. The only quick way would be a grexit, everything else will prolong the drama for some more.... years.
A temporary relief package will give a temporary bullish set up to euro. But again, Last Friday Yellen's tone has changed...on rate cuts
Intraday only.
  • #136,097
  • Jul 12, 2015 8:07am Jul 12, 2015 8:07am
many fear the clowns

Quoting sisse
Even the Eurogroup draft statement for today is already been leaked !!! (what a circus !!!)
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/text-e...c3XzEEc2VjA3Nj
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136,098
  • Jul 12, 2015 8:15am Jul 12, 2015 8:15am
Quoting sisse
Third weekend in a row tracking markets. Drama reaching boiling point after a very sour meeting on Saturday.
My condolences. Smell of desperation in two of the three largest world economies (EU & China) should logically bid the USD, if logic means anything in these sovereign owned markets anymore.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136,099
  • Jul 12, 2015 8:29am Jul 12, 2015 8:29am
http://news.yahoo.com/us-secretary-s...094325871.html

firm news of a deal for Iran and a strengthening USD should knock the shit out of oil
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136,100
  • Jul 12, 2015 8:54am Jul 12, 2015 8:54am
communists vs. the far left....hmm..."this could get a little messy"

http://finance.yahoo.com/video/groun...174000822.html
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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