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Zappa's Journal

  • #361
  • Jul 10, 2015 10:16am Jul 10, 2015 10:16am
Quoting Zappa
{quote} I can assure you this won't take months. As for today, there is still time for a quick crash to the lows at 86.36. A 500+ pip day in AUDJPY is not unheard of. Those days usually happen right at the top or at the bottom. Not that I think it will be a lasting bottom, just one that I'll happily exit out of. I don't know if today will end up being one of those days, but I don't see this weekly candle ending anywhere but down from here. There is great potential for a nasty fall even with only 7 hours left on the daily bar. And I'm not ruling...
Better reentries now.. big risk on move
  • #362
  • Jul 11, 2015 11:03am Jul 11, 2015 11:03am
Quoting Ck87
{quote} Better reentries now.. big risk on move
Was traveling all day yesterday, but exited AUDJPY and switched over to EURJPY at close. It became apparent (to me) by late Thursday that a big move down wasn't happening this week. Then I took a peek at EURAUD, and I think that pair will be heading south from hereabouts. AUDJPY still looks extremely likely to see 86.00 and much lower, but now EURJPY looks like it will be even weaker. I'm targeting 123.00.

On a side note, I'll be interested to see if we get another big gap down come Sunday evening. Last two gaps were quickly filled, and an "easy" trade for those fading the gaps. I wonder if we'll see a big gap which doesn't get filled next. Traders might see yet another big gap down and think "alright, easy money again!". And the further it goes from the close, the more people will join in looking for a return to fill the gap. Of course, at some point they will be stopped out and that could fuel a move to 123.00 in no time at all.

Just speculation, and it doesn't really matter whether that happens or not. Only thing important is winning and protecting myself at all times.
  • #363
  • Jul 12, 2015 3:58pm Jul 12, 2015 3:58pm
Big gap down. Let's see if it can keep going and fuck up all the gap faders.
  • #364
  • Jul 19, 2015 1:53pm Jul 19, 2015 1:53pm
Quoting Zappa
Big gap down. Let's see if it can keep going and fuck up all the gap faders.
This was last week, but gap was quickly filled again.

Interested to see if we get yet another large gap down on EURJPY. I think it is likely. I can't help but think one of these large gaps is going to keep going at open. I can see this happening today. A very large drop in next 12 hours is very possible, I think. In any case, EURJPY should continue heading towards 123.00 and below.
  • #365
  • Jul 19, 2015 3:09pm Jul 19, 2015 3:09pm
Preparing for something like this. Will take profits and possibly reverse if there's panic selling early.
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  • #366
  • Jul 20, 2015 3:11pm Jul 20, 2015 3:11pm
I still see a strong possibility of fast, powerful drop before zooming right back up over a few weeks. This might not happen, but it is best for me to be prepared in case it does.
  • #367
  • Jul 20, 2015 3:45pm Jul 20, 2015 3:45pm
Thinking something like this would seem realistic.
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  • #368
  • Jul 21, 2015 3:00pm Jul 21, 2015 3:00pm
Above scenario is out of play now as the pair has decided to test this area out before the big drop. I think it should be very close to a top now, if we didn't already make one. Dont see much more support once we make another low. Should be smooth sailing to 123.00 from here.
  • #369
  • Jul 23, 2015 7:19am Jul 23, 2015 7:19am
Quoting Zappa
Above scenario is out of play now as the pair has decided to test this area out before the big drop. I think it should be very close to a top now, if we didn't already make one. Dont see much more support once we make another low. Should be smooth sailing to 123.00 from here.
Looks like they're going for 137 again
  • #370
  • Jul 23, 2015 7:41am Jul 23, 2015 7:41am
Quoting Ck87
{quote} Looks like they're going for 137 again
Ha...just came in here to post and I couldn't find my thread. Didn't expect it to be at the top.

Anyways, I think we just hit another high, though 137.00 is possible.
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  • #371
  • Jul 24, 2015 2:52am Jul 24, 2015 2:52am
Quoting Zappa
{quote} Ha...just came in here to post and I couldn't find my thread. Didn't expect it to be at the top. Anyways, I think we just hit another high, though 137.00 is possible. {image}
Hmmm... good to see it coming down... new lows next week?
  • #372
  • Jul 25, 2015 6:13am Jul 25, 2015 6:13am
Quoting Ck87
{quote} Hmmm... good to see it coming down... new lows next week?
I think so.

The price action (highlighted) was extremely choppy and there were hints of selling power. I can see a gap down come Sunday open.

Maybe I am too cynical, but those large weekend gaps we've had lately had to be a set-up. All 3 were immediately filled. Will my theory that we'll soon see another large gap that doesn't get filled become reality? We'll see. I like the way it closed with a strong buy after struggling its way upwards for 12 hours. It is a good set-up for a gap down. Below is forecast.
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  • #373
  • Jul 26, 2015 3:09pm Jul 26, 2015 3:09pm
Whether or not we get the gap, here's a forecast. Doesn't need to be correct, but it helps me "see" which direction is likely. It is a great practice of visualization and logic.

It does come in handy if price follows the path, but I've yet to get very far without having to update it. Market has too many variations up its sleeve. Important for me to stay flexible and give myself room for error (by giving market room to play). There's the point where I don't think it will go, and there's the point where it should definitely NOT go. The latter is where I keep the stop, whereas I used to keep the stops tighter. I want to exit when it either hits the target, or when market starts doing things that are unexpected and contrary to what I thought it would do.
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  • #374
  • Jul 27, 2015 10:43am Jul 27, 2015 10:43am
Figured they'd take it to 137.. the thievery must always happen.
  • #375
  • Jul 27, 2015 2:34pm Jul 27, 2015 2:34pm
Quoting Ck87
Figured they'd take it to 137.. the thievery must always happen.
It's fine. Just makes us wait a little longer, but once we get out of this area I highly doubt we'll be back for a long time. Everything appears to be lined up perfectly for a big fall in EURJPY now.

The other levels where we had brief turns were feasible, but then we would have the risk of coming back to 137.00 again a little later on. At least we're getting it out of the way now. Three highs in this area and bulls will finally realize its going down. On the flip side, if 140.63 gets taken out, it will be I that comes to an unfortunate realization that it is going up. With that said, I am confident 140.63 will not be seen again for quite some time.
  • #376
  • Jul 27, 2015 3:50pm Jul 27, 2015 3:50pm
Quoting Zappa
{quote} It's fine. Just makes us wait a little longer, but once we get out of this area I highly doubt we'll be back for a long time. Everything appears to be lined up perfectly for a big fall in EURJPY now. The other levels where we had brief turns were feasible, but then we would have the risk of coming back to 137.00 again a little later on. At least we're getting it out of the way now. Three highs in this area and bulls will finally realize its going down. On the flip side, if 140.63 gets taken out, it will be I that comes to an unfortunate...
Something fishy going on with EUR/USD... It's really strong past few days and picking up momentum... that's why EUR JPY going up even though USD JPY going down...
  • #377
  • Jul 27, 2015 4:17pm Jul 27, 2015 4:17pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} Something fishy going on with EUR/USD... It's really strong past few days and picking up momentum... that's why EUR JPY going up even though USD JPY going down...
I don't see it that way. EURUSD just targeting an area where shorts got in too easy. Markets always do that stuff. Look at momentum on a daily. No indicators, just plain candlestick chart.
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  • #378
  • Jul 27, 2015 4:20pm Jul 27, 2015 4:20pm
Quoting Zappa
{quote} I don't see it that way. EURUSD just targeting an area where shorts got in too easy. Markets always do that stuff. Look at momentum on a daily. No indicators, just plain candlestick chart. {image}
True.. EUR/USD will probably go below parity.

125 is definitely possible for EUR JPY coming months. Interesting how it tested the 200 MA today.. so far fail....
  • #379
  • Jul 27, 2015 4:28pm Jul 27, 2015 4:28pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} True.. EUR/USD will probably go below parity. 125 is definitely possible for EUR JPY coming months. Interesting how it tested the 200 MA today.. so far fail....
I think EURO will actually be the weakest major against JPY. EURO looks ready to fall against everything right now. Meanwhile, JPY looks ready to gain against everything.
  • #380
  • Jul 28, 2015 4:42am Jul 28, 2015 4:42am
Quoting Zappa
{quote} I think EURO will actually be the weakest major against JPY. EURO looks ready to fall against everything right now. Meanwhile, JPY looks ready to gain against everything.
Could drop big from here.... 136.83.... starting to look weak
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